{"id":6067,"date":"2022-04-12T10:20:22","date_gmt":"2022-04-12T08:20:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-04-12\/"},"modified":"2022-04-12T10:20:22","modified_gmt":"2022-04-12T08:20:22","slug":"2022-04-12","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-04-12\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-04-12"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:20<\/h2>\n

Hej kan n\u00e5gon som beh\u00e4rskar ryska i tr\u00e5den sammanfatta vad som s\u00e4gs?
\nDet \u00e4r en marines i Mariupol fr\u00e5n legitimt konto.
\nhttps:\/\/mobile.twitter.com\/BackAndAlive\/status\/1513736813956976642<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:31<\/h3>\n

Nu har jag ju redan hyllat dig f\u00f6r att du \u00e4r f\u00f6rst p\u00e5 alla bollar, ska verkligen f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka b\u00e4ttra mig \ud83d\ude42
\nIdag l\u00e4ste jag faktiskt tr\u00e5den, b\u00f6rjade skriva men fastnade i tv\u00e5 m\u00f6ten och tryckte p\u00e5 posta utan att kolla tr\u00e5den igen…
\n—
\nProryska forum \u00e4r fulla av Mariupols kapitulation nu och jag f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker s\u00e5lla men jag TROR att det \u00e4r EN av fickorna, det \u00e4r allts\u00e5 tre omr\u00e5den kvar i Mariupol, som \u00e4r n\u00e4ra att ge upp. Vi kommer nog det n\u00e4rmaste dagarna f\u00e5 se \u00e4kta krigsf\u00e5ngar paraderas och proryska debatt\u00f6rer triumfera men det \u00e4r allts\u00e5 en del av Marines i ett av omr\u00e5dena som is\u00e5fall gett upp.
\n—
\nFinns ett annan fejk-samtal med en kille i Mariupol som ska vara britt men det \u00e4r en amerikansk accent och samma med den han pratar med s\u00e5 jag tror den \u00e4r fejk.
\n—
\nDet st\u00f6r mig faktiskt lite att Ukraina inte f\u00f6rs\u00f6kt n\u00e5 inringningen, det \u00e4r n\u00e5got som ligger och skaver h\u00e4r f\u00f6r det \u00e4r ganska ovanligt att man inte f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker bryta inringningen f\u00f6r n\u00e5t s\u00e5 h\u00e4r stort. Nu har ju tom. Ukraina g\u00e5tt p\u00e5 motoffensiv uppe vid Kharkov, varf\u00f6r inte den s\u00f6dra fronten?
\n—
\nEn tanke jag haft \u00e4r att Ukraina \u00e4r lite fula och vill ha ett Pearl Harbor men det beh\u00f6vs inte och jag tror nog inte p\u00e5 detta sj\u00e4lv. Vad tror tr\u00e5den om sk\u00e4let till att de mekbrigader som finns i omr\u00e5det inte gjort ett f\u00f6rs\u00f6k eller att man inte skickat ned de 10 brigader man har i operativ reserv inte har flyttats till den s\u00f6dra fronten?
\n—
\nDet finns ocks\u00e5 ett annat alternativ, att Ukraina \u00e4r s\u00e4kra p\u00e5 att Azovstal och hamnen inte kommer falla och att man har tid och inte beh\u00f6ver ta stora f\u00f6rluster som detta skulle inneb\u00e4ra.
\n—
\nFr\u00e5ga 2 – vad tror ni antalet f\u00f6rsvarare varit, proryska forum s\u00e4ger 14 000, vi gissade p\u00e5 20 000 och p\u00e5 wikipedia st\u00e5r det 4000. Proryska forum trodde det var 3000-3500 kvar senast ig\u00e5r.
\n—
\nVad vi nog kan enas om \u00e4r att Mariupol kommer g\u00e5 till historieb\u00f6ckerna.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:42<\/h2>\n

Jag bumpar nedan som ligger lite l\u00e5ngt upp och inb\u00e4ddat med n\u00e5gra fr\u00e5gor,
\n—
\nDet st\u00f6r mig faktiskt lite att Ukraina inte f\u00f6rs\u00f6kt n\u00e5 inringningen, det \u00e4r n\u00e5got som ligger och skaver h\u00e4r f\u00f6r det \u00e4r ganska ovanligt att man inte f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker bryta inringningen f\u00f6r n\u00e5t s\u00e5 h\u00e4r stort. Nu har ju tom. Ukraina g\u00e5tt p\u00e5 motoffensiv uppe vid Kharkov, varf\u00f6r inte den s\u00f6dra fronten?
\n\u2014
\nEn tanke jag haft \u00e4r att Ukraina \u00e4r lite fula och vill ha ett Pearl Harbor men det beh\u00f6vs inte och jag tror nog inte p\u00e5 detta sj\u00e4lv. Vad tror tr\u00e5den om sk\u00e4let till att de mekbrigader som finns i omr\u00e5det inte gjort ett f\u00f6rs\u00f6k eller att man inte skickat ned de 10 brigader man har i operativ reserv inte har flyttats till den s\u00f6dra fronten?
\n\u2014
\nDet finns ocks\u00e5 ett annat alternativ, att Ukraina \u00e4r s\u00e4kra p\u00e5 att Azovstal och hamnen inte kommer falla och att man har tid och inte beh\u00f6ver ta stora f\u00f6rluster som detta skulle inneb\u00e4ra.
\n\u2014
\nFr\u00e5ga 2 \u2013 vad tror ni antalet f\u00f6rsvarare varit, proryska forum s\u00e4ger 14 000, vi gissade p\u00e5 20 000 och p\u00e5 wikipedia st\u00e5r det 4000. Proryska forum trodde det var 3000-3500 kvar senast ig\u00e5r.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:01<\/h3>\n

F\u00f6rbandskartan upptareras s\u00e5 fort dom f\u00e5r uppgifter om att f\u00f6rband satts in i strid.
\nTittar du p\u00e5 den finns\/fanns det 10st pansar, mek, airborne, mountain (som \u00e4r mek) i reserv SV om Kiev och s\u00f6der om Kharkiv.
\nDe tre brigaderna som st\u00e5r i den v\u00e4stra flanken p\u00e5 Izyum offensiven har inte anv\u00e4nts akut \u00e4nnu.
\nErs\u00e4ttningsmanskap finns det n\u00e4stan o\u00e4ndligt av och mycket materiel har ju kommit fram inklusive T72.
\nJag st\u00e5r fast vid att det finns en rej\u00e4l slagkraft kvar hos Ukraina som \u00e4r intakt och med h\u00f6gt stridsv\u00e4rde men dom \u00e4r sansade och f\u00f6rsiktiga och har ingen lust att ta ett omr\u00e5de till kostnad av 3 brigader i skrot.
\n—
\nJag tror att den limiterande faktorn h\u00e4r \u00e4r ryskt flyg i \u00f6stra Ukraina och till man f\u00f6rv\u00e4grar ryssarna luftherrav\u00e4lde \u00e4r det lokala motoffensiver men infanteri tilldelat pansar som g\u00e4ller, s\u00e4tter man en brigad p\u00e5 rull kan den vara borta p\u00e5 tv\u00e5 timmar om man har otur.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:10<\/h3>\n

Jag st\u00e5r fast vid var brigaderna finns, visst \u00e4r det viss os\u00e4kerhet men Osint-killarna f\u00f6ljer alla stridsrapporter och kartorna uppdateras i realtid. Absolut att dom kan vara reducerade d\u00e5 man skickat bataljoner till andra frontavsnitt men det \u00e4r vad vi har att jobba med. Fr\u00e5gar du mig t\u00e4nker Ukraina l\u00e5ngsiktigt, vad h\u00e4nder efter april-offensiven n\u00e4r ryssarnas mobiliseing (kanske) b\u00f6rjar p\u00e5 allvar, ok vi m\u00e5ste ha reserver.
\n—
\nDitt svar p\u00e5 fr\u00e5ga tv\u00e5 med en 13\u00e5ring ang\u00e5ende hur m\u00e5nga f\u00f6rsvarare Ukraina hade, nu blev du n\u00e4rmast filosofiskt i ditt resonemang men om vi begr\u00e4nsar oss till styrkan i de fyra brigader som f\u00f6rsvarat Mariupol, vad tror du om det \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:22<\/h2>\n

R\u00e4tt talande att FN och svensk media pratar om 1700 d\u00f6da civila Ukrainare n\u00e4r man gr\u00e4vt fram 500 bara i Buchy och 20 000 uppges d\u00f6da i Mariupol.
\nVisst \u00e4r det v\u00e4l bra att citera FN men vem tror vi vet b\u00e4st, borgm\u00e4staren i staden som utpl\u00e5nas eller FN?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:47<\/h2>\n

15:18, mycket gl\u00e4djande meddelande fr\u00e5n marinsoldaterna i Mariupol.
\nNu \u00e4r det s\u00e5 mycket psyops s\u00e5 att man f\u00e5r ut filmer direkt fr\u00e5n f\u00f6rsvararna som flinar och ser stridsdugliga ut \u00e4r enormt viktigt. Kan Mariupol ocks\u00e5 ha en st\u00e4rkande effekt p\u00e5 stridsmoralen rent generellt, ”klarar dom att h\u00e5lla ut kan vi fanken sl\u00e5ss ett tag till”, typ?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:55<\/h2>\n

Har tappat l\u00e4nken men morgonens nyhet var att man nu kommit fram till att det var korruption som gjorde att Ryssarna fick framdrivning i s\u00f6der f\u00f6rsta dagen, h\u00f6gsta h\u00f6nset i ukrainas s\u00e4kerhetstj\u00e4nst d\u00e4rnere, han som fick sparken, hade dubbelspelat.
\n—
\nVi gissade ju det ganska direkt i tr\u00e5den d\u00e5 dom br\u00e4nde \u00f6ver Khakovka redan vid lunchtid f\u00f6rsta dagen s\u00e5 d\u00e4r prickade vi r\u00e4tt.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:21<\/h3>\n

Vi har tv\u00e5 kartor att f\u00f6rh\u00e5lla sig till, Militarylands och den osintkartan \u00f6ver ryska f\u00f6rband som uppdateras i ryck. N\u00e4r det g\u00e4ller Militaryland s\u00e5 \u00e4r ju f\u00f6rbanden antingen i strid eller s\u00e5 ligger dom i bakre och osint har ju hyfsad koll p\u00e5 det. Du tror inte att alla andra, ISW, regeringar osv. kommenterar p\u00e5 ungef\u00e4r samma information?
\nDen exakta situationen vet ju bara Ukrainas milit\u00e4rledning och ryssarnas dito men visst kan vi sitta och kommentera p\u00e5 n\u00e5got som killarna p\u00e5 ISW anv\u00e4nder.
\n—
\nNumer\u00e4ren, jag d\u00e4r n\u00e5gonstans upp till 14 000. Nationalguardsbrigaden har f\u00f6rsvunnit, har jag ocks\u00e5 noterat. Wikipedia hade 4000 i starten men har dom 3000-3500 kvar efter dessa strider \u00e4r nog upp till 14 000 rimligare.
\n—
\nanv\u00e4nder bara wikipediakartan f\u00f6r tagna orter dock, den verkar vara mest konservativ.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:20 Hej kan n\u00e5gon som beh\u00e4rskar ryska i tr\u00e5den sammanfatta vad som s\u00e4gs? Det \u00e4r en marines i Mariupol fr\u00e5n […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[33,18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6067","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-arkiv01","category-ukraina"],"yoast_head":"\n2022-04-12 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-04-12\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2022-04-12 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"10:20 Hej kan n\u00e5gon som beh\u00e4rskar ryska i tr\u00e5den sammanfatta vad som s\u00e4gs? 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