{"id":6071,"date":"2022-04-16T10:20:08","date_gmt":"2022-04-16T08:20:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-04-16\/"},"modified":"2022-04-16T10:20:08","modified_gmt":"2022-04-16T08:20:08","slug":"2022-04-16","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-04-16\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-04-16"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:20<\/h2>\n

Ang\u00e5ende Mariupol skrev ju ISW f\u00f6r n\u00e5gra dagar sedan, minns inte exakt, att Mariupols fall var dagar eller timmar bort, \u00e4r fortfarande r\u00e4tt sur p\u00e5 deras negativa bild av Ukrainas f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga till f\u00f6rsvar… Som vi skrev ig\u00e5r blir den s\u00f6dra fickan med hamnen mindre, tittar ni p\u00e5 Militarylands karta s\u00e5 \u00e4r halva hamnen r\u00f6d.
\nProryska forum peddlar att dom tagit barackerna f\u00f6r National Guard 12th Brigade och hela hamnen vilket i vanlig ordning \u00e4r en halvsanning och mycket luft \ud83d\ude42
\n—
\nDet kan nog t\u00e4nkas att 12th National Guards brigade genomf\u00f6r en taktisk retr\u00e4tt in till Azovstal med n\u00e5t hundratal f\u00e5ngar i f\u00f6rlust. Lite sm\u00e5d\u00e5lig terr\u00e4ng att retirera genom och s\u00e4mre terr\u00e4ng att h\u00e5lla i norra hamnen men Marines hade en l\u00e4ngre str\u00e4cka \u00e4n s\u00e5 att avverka.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:31<\/h3>\n

I FNs r\u00e5d f\u00f6r m\u00e4nskliga r\u00e4ttigheter sitter ju flera av v\u00e4rldens v\u00e4rsta diktaturer, Pakistan, Cuba och Uzbekistan tex.
\nI s\u00e4kerhetsr\u00e5det har vi Ryssland som \u00e4r allt annat \u00e4n s\u00e4kert och Kina bromsar allt som \u00e4r rimligt.
\n—
\nFN har sedan 2013 hela 45 resolutioner mot Israel men en m\u00e5nad in i detta krig, inget direkt slagkraftigt mot Ryssland.
\nWHO hj\u00e4lpte ju Kina sprida Covid genom hela ”det \u00e4r inte airborne, st\u00e4ng inte era flyglinjer” narrativet f\u00f6rsta m\u00e5naden.
\nDet \u00e4r ett tydligt daltande med diktaturer i FN och ett USA\/Israel hat. USA g\u00f6r den fria v\u00e4rlden s\u00e4ker och framf\u00f6rallt har vi i EU ett mycket bekv\u00e4mt liv tack vare dom.
\n—
\nEU b\u00f6r g\u00f6ra gemensam sak med USA och g\u00e5 med i NATO som en man (som Paul p\u00e5pekat i stort sett \u00e4r fallet). Sen sl\u00e5r vi v\u00e5ra p\u00e5sar ihop med Australien, Nya Zeeland och Japan och k\u00f6ra v\u00e5rt race. Sk1tdiktaturerna kan f\u00e5 kapa FN, WHO b\u00e4st dom vill och ha sina BRIICS councils f\u00f6r EUUSAANZJP kan garantera s\u00e4kerhet och v\u00e4lst\u00e5nd i sina l\u00e4nder i hundra \u00e5r till och vi sl\u00e4pper ber\u00f6ringsskr\u00e4cken och ”colonial guilt” eller vad det nu \u00e4r. Vi har alla egentligen samma m\u00e5l, demokratier som fungerar, och det blir v\u00e4l inga direkta interna konflikter i detta block, och sticker Kina eller Ryssland upp huvudet blir det en Ukraina.
\nFinns schyssta l\u00e4nder i Asien, Afrika och Sydamerika och dom knyter man till sig med \u00e4rliga handelsavtal om dom promotar demokrati, typ.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:37<\/h4>\n

Nu \u00e4r v\u00e4l inte ovan ett av mina toppliste-\u00e4mnen att k\u00e4nna starkt f\u00f6r, var nog mest bara lite tankar som fl\u00f6g ned i ett inl\u00e4gg s\u00e5 k\u00e4nner n\u00e5gon att detta m\u00e5ste vi ta en duell om slinker jag nog undan \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:02<\/h2>\n

Ett par tankar kring Ukrainas numer\u00e4r, Zelensky meddelade oss ig\u00e5r att Ryssland f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker omfatta ”45 000 man i Donbass stillest\u00e5ndslinje” (har jag f\u00f6r mig, det fl\u00f6g f\u00f6rbi lite snabbt). Lite f\u00f6renklat har Ukraina 12 brigader i denna potentiella inringning och d\u00e5 blir det drygt 4000 man per brigad.
\nSkulle man ta det som en baseline (jag vet att numer\u00e4ren skall vara 6000\/brigad och olika f\u00f6r olika brigader men bara f\u00f6r \u00f6vningens skull) s\u00e5 finns det ju \u00d6ster om Dnepr 25 brigader till med 25X4000 = 100 000 man.
\n—
\nM\u00e5nga olika bud p\u00e5 ryssarnas numer\u00e4r men sv\u00e5rt att tro att dom kan toppa 140 000man h\u00e4r i sina BTG.
\nL\u00e4gg d\u00e4rtill alla brigader Ukraina har v\u00e4ster om Dnepr, orkar inte ens r\u00e4kna, Kiev och Kherson \u00e4r v\u00e4l 20 till antalet och sen n\u00e5t 20-tal till s\u00e5 ytterligare minst 150 000 man l\u00e5gt r\u00e4knat.
\n—
\nNu \u00f6ver till Strv, Ukrainska f\u00f6rluster var enligt bloggen ovan 112 och siffran 100 har v\u00e4l flugit runt ett tag. S\u00e4g att Ukraina smyger lite med f\u00f6rlusterna och r\u00e4knar l\u00e5gt. T72 leveranserna fr\u00e5n Slovakien och Polen \u00e4r h\u00f6gre \u00e4n s\u00e5 och vi har sett fler \u00e4n ett exempel p\u00e5 \u00f6vergiven rysk T72 i Ukrainsk service s\u00e5 dom b\u00f6r n\u00e4stan ha fulltaliga pansar och mekbataljoner tycker jag?
\n—
\nJag undrar hur den ryska milit\u00e4rledningen t\u00e4nker h\u00e4r, dom vet v\u00e4l p\u00e5 ett ungef\u00e4r hur den Ukrainska laguppst\u00e4llningen ser ut och vet b\u00e4ttre \u00e4n oss hur sk1td\u00e5ligt det egna laget \u00e4r. Min gissning \u00e4r att det \u00e4r Bunkerdv\u00e4rgen som tvingar p\u00e5 h\u00e4r f\u00f6r sin segerdagsparad och att milit\u00e4rledningen vet precis hur detta kommer sluta men att dom g\u00f6r det dom blir tillsagda att g\u00f6ra. D\u00e5 t\u00e4nker jag att vi kommer f\u00e5 r\u00e4kna bort 25% minst av ryska sidan som kommer v\u00e4gra fram\u00e5t n\u00e4r denna l\u00f6jliga urs\u00e4kt f\u00f6r en v\u00e5roffensiv s\u00e5 sm\u00e5ningom kommer ig\u00e5ng alldeles f\u00f6r sent.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:09<\/h3>\n

Jag vet att man inte kan r\u00e4kna s\u00e5 h\u00e4r utan bara f\u00f6r att det \u00e4r den f\u00f6rsta skarpa siffra vi har och f\u00f6r att f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka tydligg\u00f6ra styrkef\u00f6rh\u00e5llandena och det om\u00f6jliga i att Ryssland kan g\u00e5 p\u00e5 offensiv.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:33<\/h3>\n

Jo precis och fr\u00e5gan \u00e4r v\u00e4l som TANKFRI och MAGNUS REDIN \u00e4r inne p\u00e5 att varf\u00f6r forts\u00e4tta med samma kapade polarklubb f\u00f6r diktatorer n\u00e4r man helt sonika kan starta EUUSAANZJP och b\u00f6rja om fr\u00e5n b\u00f6rjan.
\nNu \u00e4r ju dessa l\u00e4nder r\u00e4tt demokratiska i den bem\u00e4rkelsen att vi inte kommer f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka suga ut resten av v\u00e4rlden p\u00e5 r\u00e5varor och starta kolonialkrig s\u00e5 kan nog bli en r\u00e4tt trivsam v\u00e4rld att bo i om EUUSAANZJP f\u00e5r vara toppen p\u00e5 pyramiden.
\nVi har ju i n\u00e5gon typ av colonial guilt l\u00e5tit diverse sk1tdiktarorer h\u00e4rja s\u00f6nder sina l\u00e4nder och befolkningar f\u00f6r att ett ingripande skulle vara moraliskt s\u00e4mre, ”det \u00e4r inte f\u00f6r oss att besluta hur Zimbabweser skall leva sina liv”, s\u00e5 dom f\u00e5r sv\u00e4lta ihj\u00e4l ist\u00e4llet. Kan vi b\u00f6rja se till l\u00e4ndernas befolkningars b\u00e4sta ist\u00e4llet kan det nog bli v\u00e4ldigt mycket b\u00e4ttre.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:59<\/h2>\n

Postar nedan som \u00e4r en prorysk uppskattning p\u00e5 numer\u00e4ren i Mariuopol fr\u00e5n Ukrainas sida vid stridens b\u00f6rjan.
\n”In Mariupol at the time of its encirclement on March 11, there were: 36th separate brigade of marines, 109th brigade of territorial defense, 503rd separate battalion of marines, a company of the 53rd separate mechanized brigade, units of the 17th anti-tank brigade, Nazi formations ”Azov”*, ”Aidar”*, ”Right Sector”*, police and state border service units, as well as foreign mercenaries – RF Ministry of Defense”<\/p>\n

The total number of this group was about 8,100 people<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

23:21<\/h3>\n

Mycket intressant, och h\u00f6gst sannolikt att det \u00e4r ”martial law”, f\u00f6rmodligen krigsf\u00f6rklaring mot Ukraina f\u00f6r deras aggression mot Ryssland, kanske Moskva, inom n\u00e5n vecka.
\n—
\nEn sak st\u00f6r mig lite, killen \u00e4r inte mest uppr\u00f6rd \u00f6ver alla civila Ukrainare som d\u00f6r, det \u00e4r oklart om han sett strid eller inte men en fullt fungerande v\u00e4stlig soldat hade nog lyft fram det som huvudargumentet. Den h\u00e4r killen vill leva, iofs. ocks\u00e5 ett mycket bra argument men nummer tv\u00e5 tycker jag.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

23:55<\/h2>\n

19:17 uppdateringen, Ryssland har k\u00f6rt en Afghanistan med hela sin f\u00f6rsvarsmakt, flotta, arme, flyg och f\u00f6rmodligen k\u00e4rnvapentrupperna. ALLA har uppdaterats och skall vara i bra skick men det \u00e4r riktigt j\u00e4dra d\u00e5ligt.
\nEfter en m\u00e5nad ser vi T72 i n\u00e4ranog originalskick i strid och gamla decomissioned Grad som togs ur bruk tidigt 2000-tal.
\nDe officiella siffrorna \u00e4r inte i n\u00e4rheten av korrekta h\u00e4r och man b\u00f6rjar f\u00f6rst\u00e5 varf\u00f6r Oligarkerna har minst en yacht f\u00f6r n\u00e5n miljard dollar per person.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:20 Ang\u00e5ende Mariupol skrev ju ISW f\u00f6r n\u00e5gra dagar sedan, minns inte exakt, att Mariupols fall var dagar eller timmar 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