{"id":6080,"date":"2022-04-25T11:32:17","date_gmt":"2022-04-25T09:32:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-04-25\/"},"modified":"2022-04-25T11:32:17","modified_gmt":"2022-04-25T09:32:17","slug":"2022-04-25","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-04-25\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-04-25"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:32<\/h2>\n

Ryssland har under natten skickat jag vet inte hur m\u00e5nga robotar och det \u00e4r artillerield konstant s\u00e5 dom bl\u00e5ser p\u00e5 med allt dom har nu. Det som \u00e4r intressant \u00e4r att dom sl\u00e5r mot m\u00e5l \u00f6ver hela Ukraina och jag tycker deras definition nu av vad dom skall er\u00f6vra nu \u00e4r – Mykolaiv Oblast och hela \u00f6stra Ukraina \u00f6ster om Dnepr fram till Kharkov, s\u00e5 Kharkov verkar man ha avskrivit. Det \u00e4r s\u00e5 m\u00e5nga olika uttalanden h\u00e4r men dessa kartor b\u00f6rjar spridas i proryska medier ganska aktivt.
\n—
\nDetta \u00e4r en enorm satsning som dom inte har resurser f\u00f6r men det garanterar att dom kommer n\u00f6ta ned alla sina BTG i f\u00f6rs\u00f6ken att uppn\u00e5 ett, i deras \u00f6gon, strategiskt m\u00e5l vilket definieras av att det \u00e4r Bunkerdv\u00e4rgen som pekat p\u00e5 en karta och sagt ”ge mig”. Att man inte avskrivit Odessa \u00e4r m\u00e4rkligt d\u00e5 dom kunde ha retirerat till \u00f6ster om Dnepr och h\u00e5llit \u00f6verg\u00e5ngarna s\u00e5 dom f\u00e5r mer resurser f\u00f6r den s\u00f6dra fronten men inget Putin g\u00f6r \u00e4r rationellt.
\n—
\nSom sagt \u00e4r nog artilleriammunition och robotar den kritiska linjen h\u00e4r och det \u00e4r r\u00e4tt kul att Ukraina sl\u00e5r mot m\u00e5l p\u00e5 ryskt territorium dagligen, eller med hj\u00e4lp av andra, f\u00f6r vi minns v\u00e4l det st\u00e4ndiga fyrverkeriet i Belgorod som nu verkar ha ersatts av h\u00f6gv\u00e4rdiga m\u00e5l \u00f6ver hela Ryssland. Skogsbr\u00e4nder och ursp\u00e5rningar \u00e4r riskfria sabotage men jag tycker det signalerar att det finns ett Putin-motst\u00e5nd i Ryssland eller s\u00e5 har Ukraina infiltrerat en sabotage-arme under sju \u00e5r som nu aktiverats, det f\u00f6rra verkar troligare. Go Ukraina och som m\u00e5nga p\u00e5talat, n\u00e4r visst artilleri kommer s\u00e5 kan dom n\u00e5 m\u00e5l upp till Moskva och artillerigranater \u00e4r inte direkt l\u00e4tta att sl\u00e5 ut s\u00e5 det kan f\u00f6rhoppningsvis bli livligt.
\n—
\n\u00c4r det n\u00e5gon i tr\u00e5den som har en uppfattning om hur m\u00e5nga BTG som ej sett strid i denna v\u00e5roffensiv?’
\nErik14 har ju postat bilder p\u00e5 n\u00e5gra kolonner och jag gissar att det \u00e4r de 20 BTG som drogs bort norr om Kiev f\u00f6r refit som nu skickas ned mot Izyum?
\nVi har att f\u00f6rh\u00e5lla oss till siffran 85 BTG som \u00e4r \u00f6vre bed\u00f6mningen av de flesta \u00f6ppna osint och USA, UK mfl.
\nDet \u00c4R inte mer \u00e4n under 100 000 man och med tanke p\u00e5 att Ryssland har \u00f6vergett 60% av sin frontlinje + Mariupol signalerar det att man har brist p\u00e5 f\u00f6rband, annars hade dom ju bara fortsatt.
\n—
\nNu \u00e4r nog det mindre genombrottet vid Izyum inte planerat av Ukraina men, med lyxen att sitta vid tangentbordet, s\u00e5 \u00e4r det ingen dum ide om dom trycker p\u00e5 v\u00e4ster om Kramatorsk\/Slovyansk f\u00f6r ju l\u00e4ngre s\u00f6derut dom kommer ju sv\u00e5rare blir det att r\u00e4dda dom.
\n—
\nEtt till strategiskt misstag som nu verkar spela ut sig och h\u00e4r kanske de d\u00f6da generalerna vid Kherson flygplats spelar in att varf\u00f6r dom hade m\u00f6tet, \u00e4r att ryssarna verkar trycka in nya resurser f\u00f6r en framst\u00f6t mot Krivoj Rog. Om det nu st\u00e4mmer som pro-ryska sidor s\u00e4ger att Ukraina har en uppmarsch vid Zaporoznye finns det tillr\u00e4ckligt med f\u00f6rsvar att stoppa den offensiven och d\u00e5 st\u00e5r dom ocks\u00e5 p\u00e5 fel sida frontlinjen precis som alla BTG norr om linjen Kramatorsk – Severedonetsk s\u00e5 fort Ukraina b\u00f6rjar motanfall.
\nMan b\u00f6rjar faktiskt undra hur mycket ryssarna har kvar vid den s\u00f6dra fronten h\u00e4r, speciellt omr\u00e5det n\u00e4rmast Dnepr,
\ntittar man p\u00e5 f\u00f6rbandskartan har Ukraina flyttat fram 19th Rocket brigade och Azov strax S\u00d6 om Zaporoznye och har sedan tidigare haft 59th Mechanized brigade d\u00e4r s\u00e5 nog \u00e4r Melitopol ett m\u00f6jligt anfallsm\u00e5l + att det nog finns f\u00f6rband d\u00e4r vi inte k\u00e4nner till. 46th Air Assault brigade och 15th Mechanized brigade vet vi inte var dom \u00e4r.
\n—
\nJag f\u00e5r medge h\u00e4r att det blir allt mindre reserver av de tunga och elitbrigaderna, man har st\u00e4llt en hel del l\u00e4ngs den norra fronten vilket v\u00e4l \u00e4r smart, jag hade nog t\u00e4nkt att man skulle l\u00f6sa det med infanteri och skicka alla tunga elefanter \u00f6sterut men d\u00e5 hade dom v\u00e4l f\u00f6rlorat kriget med en s\u00e5dan usel strategi… Finns v\u00e4l tre mek och airborne brigader till som m\u00f6jliga reserver eftersom dom legat bakom fronterna och vi inte vet var dom \u00e4r.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:44<\/h3>\n

Mycket v\u00e4l resonerat.
\nNu \u00e4r vi v\u00e4l r\u00e4tt m\u00e5nga som b\u00f6rjar k\u00e4nna att Ukraina kan kasta ut Ryssland och \u00e5terst\u00e4lla gr\u00e4nserna pre-2014.
\nMen vad h\u00e4nder sen, det \u00e4r ju inte Ukrainas jobb utan de fria demokratierna som m\u00e5ste se till s\u00e5 att Ryssland inte bara kan g\u00f6ra en uppmarsch till som nu i vintras och starta rond 2. Det l\u00e5ngskjutande artilleriet var det ju n\u00e5gon som kl\u00e4ckte att det v\u00e4l \u00e4r till f\u00f6r att f\u00f6rv\u00e4gra ryssland att terrobeskjuta ukrainsk mark n\u00e4r dom \u00e4r tillbaka p\u00e5 sin egen och Ukraina kan v\u00e4l punktmarkera lite uppmarsch knytpunkter och f\u00f6rr\u00e5d men ett st\u00f6rre grepp om hela Ryssland M\u00c5STE till f\u00f6r att vi inte skall f\u00e5 ett nytt kalla krig d\u00e4r dom bara laddar f\u00f6r ett nytt fiasko.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:07<\/h3>\n

Hej och tack sj\u00e4lv f\u00f6r alltid bra inl\u00e4gg, jo man har nog ingen br\u00e5dska med att sl\u00e5 s\u00f6derut fr\u00e5n Zaporoznye precis som du s\u00e4ger. Jag trodde i tider av h\u00f6gsta optimism, ni minns n\u00e4r det var en film p\u00e5 lastbilar k\u00f6randes som biltjuvar fr\u00e5n Kherson Airport, att Ukraina skulle kunna passera broarna \u00f6ver Dnepr av bara farten men riktigt s\u00e5 blev det ju inte.
\n—
\nYes till allt det andra, framryckningen mot Kupiansk borde tuffa p\u00e5 f\u00f6r det \u00e4r en s\u00e5 pass stor vinst och Donbass (norr om Horlivka fickan\/b\u00e5gen skall v\u00e4l vara r\u00f6rlig strid har jag f\u00e5tt f\u00f6r mig, potatis\u00e5ker mot stridsvagnsvrak.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:10<\/h2>\n

F\u00e5r kanske riktigt fel i min tanke att Ukraina ska g\u00e5 mot Melitopol d\u00e5 Ryssarna verkar ha laddat upp b\u00e5de vid Krivoj Rog sidan men ocks\u00e5 \u00f6stra sidan om Dnepr under Zaporoznye. Det \u00e4r helt lyriskt p\u00e5 proryska sidor om att Zaporoznye skall fall om n\u00e5n dag i vanlig ordning.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:32 Ryssland har under natten skickat jag vet inte hur m\u00e5nga robotar och det \u00e4r artillerield konstant s\u00e5 dom bl\u00e5ser […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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