{"id":6165,"date":"2022-05-11T09:34:00","date_gmt":"2022-05-11T07:34:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-05-11-2\/"},"modified":"2022-05-11T09:34:00","modified_gmt":"2022-05-11T07:34:00","slug":"2022-05-11-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-05-11-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-05-11"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

13:27<\/h2>\n

Ukrainas moral\/stridsv\u00e4rde om det \u00e4r h\u00f6gt eller l\u00e5gt t\u00e4nkte jag att Mariupol \u00e4r ett bra lackmustest (nu b\u00f6rjar dom n\u00e4rma sig slutet s\u00e5 nedan \u00e4r inget f\u00f6rs\u00f6k till relativisering). Staden f\u00f6rsvaras av fler \u00e4n sex enheter. En mekaniserad brigad i n\u00e5gon form var ocks\u00e5 med ett bra tag och sen finns det lite annat, Georgier har vi sett bilder p\u00e5 och enligt Wikipedia en grupp killar med mycket l\u00e5ngt taktisk sk\u00e4gg fr\u00e5n samma f\u00f6rband som RPG guden.
\nF\u00f6rslag p\u00e5 storlek p\u00e5 styrkan har spretat, f\u00f6rst trodde vi 20 000, sedan 11 000 och p\u00e5 Wikipedia st\u00e5r det v\u00e4l 4500. N\u00e4r man ser till alla f\u00f6rbanden och att bara Azov skulle varit en full bataljon tror jag att det var betydligt fler \u00e4n 4500 som blev inringade men det \u00e4r bara min gissning.
\n\u2014
\nVarf\u00f6r \u00e4r det d\u00e5 inte fler s\u00e5rade inne i Azovstal, jag tror att Ukraina hade fungerande medevac v\u00e4ldigt l\u00e4nge och att s\u00e5 fort man d\u00f6k in i Azovstal blev f\u00f6rlusterna l\u00e4gre. Det kan ocks\u00e5 t\u00e4nkas att n\u00e5gra f\u00f6rband br\u00f6t sig ut ur inringningen i ett tidigt skede. N\u00e4r det g\u00e4ller f\u00e5ngar \u00e4r jag r\u00e4tt \u00f6vertygad om att dom kan r\u00e4knas i hundratals inte tusentals f\u00f6r is\u00e5fall hade ryssarna paraderat dom framf\u00f6r kamerorna. Vi har sett grupper p\u00e5 50-60 \u00e5t g\u00e5ngen under ett antal tillf\u00e4llen (vi har gissat att en del videor var fake). Min uppfattning \u00e4r ocks\u00e5 att alla f\u00f6rband lyckades retirera in till Azovstal i n\u00e5gon form, dom sista var special forces police och NG fr\u00e5n hamnen som slog sig igenom. Enligt intervjun ig\u00e5r har del av fortet raserats f\u00f6r det l\u00e5g civila under rasmassorna s\u00e5 kanske \u00e4ven soldater.
\n\u2014
\nPo\u00e4ngen jag vill komma till \u00e4r att detta \u00e4r en sammansatt stridsgrupp av sex olika enheter och fyra fem mindre f\u00f6rband som tagit rent astronomiska f\u00f6rluster hur man \u00e4n r\u00e4knar p\u00e5 det och varit avskurna utan m\u00f6jlighet till unds\u00e4ttning under mycket l\u00e5ng tid men dom f\u00f6r till dags dato en aktiv och r\u00f6rlig strid f\u00f6r annars hade ryssarna bara spr\u00e4ngt alla bunker\u00f6ppningar och det har dom inte gjort (eller s\u00e5 \u00f6verskattar jag ryssarnas och dom s\u00e5g aldrig rambo I-IV).
\nN\u00e4r man applicerar den h\u00e4r typen av externt tryck brukar ofta inre konflikter starta och jag kan bara se att dom enas i att skjuta ryssar och sl\u00e5ss till sista patronen, allt annat \u00e4r sekund\u00e4rt. Alla som har gjort ett grupparbete vet ju hur det brukar g\u00e5 efter f\u00f6rsta m\u00f6tet.
\n\u2014
\nJag skulle s\u00e4ga att du f\u00e5r sv\u00e5rt att toppa detta stridsv\u00e4rde med n\u00e5got annat v\u00e4stligt f\u00f6rband och d\u00e5 \u00e4r kanske h\u00e4lften inte den regulj\u00e4ra armen eller national batalions, att state border guards skulle vara veritabla fighters trodde v\u00e4l ingen.
\nNu har jag inget bevis f\u00f6r att hela ukrainska armen har samma stridsv\u00e4rde men detta \u00e4r en grupp sammansatt fr\u00e5n alla f\u00f6rsvarsgrenar och det \u00e4r min \u00f6vertygelse att armen i stort \u00e4r likv\u00e4rdig n\u00e4r man tittar p\u00e5 hur sv\u00e5rt ryssarna har att f\u00e5 framdrivning n\u00e5gonstans.
\n\u2014
\nMan h\u00e5ller sina st\u00e4llningar, genomf\u00f6r taktiska retr\u00e4tter, \u00e5tertar vid f\u00f6rsta tillf\u00e4lle och \u00e4r beredda att d\u00f6 f\u00f6r sitt land, vilket man ocks\u00e5 g\u00f6r. Det kr\u00e4vs ganska mycket att g\u00e5 fram\u00e5t direkt efter att man f\u00e5tt genomf\u00f6ra en retr\u00e4tt, det \u00e4r alltid n\u00e5gon pluton som precis lyckas slinka undan genom att springa som galningar i ett dike. En taktisk retr\u00e4tt l\u00e5ter snyggt men man f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker r\u00e4dda sitt skinn b\u00e4st man kan. Sen vid uppsamlingsplatsen ser man vilka som finns kvar och \u00e5terh\u00e4mtar n\u00e5gra timmar, ett kompani i reserven anl\u00e4nder och man tar tillbaka det man f\u00f6rlorat efter en cigg och p\u00e5fylld ammo. Det kr\u00e4vs sin man f\u00f6r det och ukraina g\u00f6r detta hela tiden varje dag \u00f6verallt innan ryssarna har gr\u00e4vt ned sig.
\n\u2014
\nIntervjun ig\u00e5r p\u00e5 CNN var obehaglig f\u00f6r det lyste igenom att dom b\u00f6rjar bli desperata nu s\u00e5 det \u00e4r verkligen dags att bryta den inringningen, det finns ett stort symbolv\u00e4rde i att Mariupol aldrig gav upp och det vore detta krigs stora olycka om avslutet blir nackskott f\u00f6r f\u00f6rsvararna.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:45<\/h2>\n

Jag fick n\u00e4stan k\u00e4nslan h\u00e4r att efter att Putin paraderat lite putsade st\u00f6vlar som n\u00e5got s\u00e5 n\u00e4r lyckades g\u00e5 i takt m\u00e5lade det bilden att situationen inte kan vara s\u00e5 illa f\u00f6r dom i Ukraina som det p\u00e5st\u00e5s d\u00e5 dom ju m\u00e5ste ha en massa kick kvar. De \u00e4r ju ett helt internt stunt som vilken diktator med lite sj\u00e4lvaktning som helst k\u00f6r, stora parader och k\u00f6r runt med det senaste men n\u00e4r man samtidigt f\u00f6rlorar ett krig g\u00e5r det ju inte att uppr\u00e4tth\u00e5lla l\u00f6gnen p\u00e5 samma s\u00e4tt. Innan krigsstart trodde ju hela v\u00e4rlden f\u00f6rutom LW trott att dom hade en h\u00f6gre f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga \u00e4n vad dom visade sig ha.
\n\u2014
\nEnligt tr\u00e5den ig\u00e5r s\u00e5 har ryssarna nu best\u00e4mt sig f\u00f6r att ett par potatis\u00e5ker i \u00f6straste Ukraina \u00e4r det strategiska m\u00e5l dom hela kriget str\u00e4vat efter att uppn\u00e5, allt annat har varit en gigantisk maskirovka, nu senast \u00e4r ju Kharkov ej l\u00e4ngre av intresse f\u00f6r man har egentligen aldrig varit intresserad av staden, bara trollat Ukraina, Ryska f\u00f6rsvarsministeriet har v\u00e4l l\u00e5tit oss f\u00f6rst\u00e5 n\u00e5got i den stilen.
\n\u2014
\nSen \u00e4r jag av \u00e5sikten att det \u00e4r fog of war just nu, Ukraina har historiskt musslat up ordentligt n\u00e4r n\u00e5got \u00e4r p\u00e5 g\u00e5ng och det \u00c4R n\u00e5gonting i g\u00f6rningen vid Kherson och Zaporoznye. L\u00e4ser man Militaryland f\u00f6r sanning s\u00e5 f\u00e5r man intrycket av att det \u00e4r stiltje \u00f6verallt men jag tror inte det st\u00e4mmer. Det puttrar p\u00e5 flera st\u00e4llen just nu. R\u00e4tt strategi \u00e4r att \u00f6ka trycket gradvis \u00f6verallt och det har man kapacitet till.
\n\u2014
\nVid Izyum tror jag att ryssarna har f\u00e5tt en betydligt st\u00f6rre sm\u00e4ll \u00e4n vad vi (ja inte jag d\u00e5\u2026) tror, BTG var redan reducerade s\u00e5 det fanns inga 40 fordon att sl\u00e5 ut per BTG l\u00e4ngre och man slog ut de som satt och tryckte i skogsomr\u00e5dena runt Izyum och det var ett st\u00f6rre omr\u00e5de. Nu finns det ingen vilja att d\u00f6 d\u00e4r l\u00e4ngre i groparna och man sticker inte upp n\u00e4san s\u00e5 man kan flytta vidare eldr\u00f6ren till n\u00e4sta front, vilket man g\u00f6r. Om det var SOF som infiltrerade \u00f6ver bron eller n\u00e5gon av de tunga elefanterna vet vi v\u00e4l inte men faktum kvarst\u00e5r att i Izyum v\u00e4stra flank ligger det tv\u00e5 ukrainska brigader med h\u00f6gt stridsv\u00e4rde f\u00f6r annars hade det funnits n\u00e5gon stridsrapport p\u00e5 dom.
\n\u2014
\nHursomhelst, vill bara citera Paasikiivi f\u00f6r lite positiv spinn p\u00e5 situationen, han sl\u00e5r i gongongen f\u00f6r f\u00f6rra veckan vilket vi v\u00e4l tr\u00e5den ocks\u00e5 gjorde \ud83d\ude0a
\n\u201d Underr\u00e4ttelseuppgifter fr\u00e5n brittiska f\u00f6rsvarsministeriet visar att Ukraina nu rycker fram p\u00e5 flera fronter.<\/p>\n

Enligt \u00f6verstel\u00f6jtnant Joakim Paasikivi skedde en f\u00f6r\u00e4ndring i framryckningarna s\u00e5 sent som i f\u00f6rra veckan.
\n\u2013 Initiativet i kriget har \u00f6verg\u00e5tt till Ukraina, s\u00e4ger han.<\/p>\n

Brittiska f\u00f6rsvarsministeriet har publicerat en karta som visar var det p\u00e5g\u00e5r strider just nu och vilken av sidorna som avancerar. Kartan*, som publicerades p\u00e5 tisdagen visar att Ukraina sl\u00e5r tillbaka p\u00e5 fyra fronter: i Izjum, i Charkiv, i Zaporizjzja och utanf\u00f6r Mykolajiv.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:05<\/h3>\n

Det gick v\u00e4l r\u00e4tt l\u00e4nge, en luftbro med helikoptrar f\u00f6r medevac som v\u00e4l fl\u00f6g in med mat\/ammunition och vi s\u00e5g n\u00e5n film p\u00e5 tv\u00e5 glada killar som infiltrerade med ett par dr\u00f6nare. Nu tror jag inte det \u00e4r s\u00e5 m\u00e5nga luckor kvar men jag vet faktiskt inte det utan baserar det p\u00e5 att f\u00f6rsvararna b\u00f6rjar se desperata ut.
\nJag tror n\u00e4stan religi\u00f6st p\u00e5 att den s\u00f6dra fronten \u00e4r svag i Vasylivka \u2013 Polohy och att man b\u00f6r kunna trycka p\u00e5 mot Tokmak och Melitopol och d\u00e4refter i den allm\u00e4nna r\u00f6ran g\u00f6ra en riktad insats mot Mariupol men det \u00e4r en mycket tall order hur man \u00e4n vrider och v\u00e4nder p\u00e5 det. Lite f\u00f6renklat skall man ta stora f\u00f6rluster f\u00f6r att befria f\u00f6rsvararna och misslyckas det eller blir ett blodbad s\u00e5 \u00e4r det inte den win vi ser framf\u00f6r oss, dom v\u00e4ger v\u00e4l f\u00f6r och emot varje dag kan man gissa.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:04<\/h2>\n

Den h\u00e4r har s\u00e4kert varit uppe men det g\u00e5r s\u00e5d\u00e4r med omfattningen av Severedonetsk, det d\u00e4r \u00e4r v\u00e4l en l\u00e4tt BTG som rykt minst.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/Danspiun\/status\/1523689260599353344<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:06<\/h2>\n

L\u00e4ser ni f\u00f6rsta kommentaren under denna \u00e4r intressant, obekr\u00e4ftat s\u00e5klart,
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/CroftJo90\/status\/1523738431867686913?s=20&t=I8u55-e5dtwPzIkBNMzuAw<\/a>
\nAbout 32,000 Russians have sent inquiries to find their soldiers.
\nThe wives and mothers of Russian soldiers are actively contacting the Ministry of Internal Affairs to find out where their husbands and sons are. \u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:44<\/h3>\n

Jo den, var geolocated s\u00e5 helt galet att man kan g\u00e5 in och zooma runt sj\u00e4lv som den v\u00e4rsta Patton.
\nTror ni att google maps om n\u00e5t halv\u00e5r har uppdaterat s\u00e5 man d\u00e5 kan se utslagna fordon?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

13:27 Ukrainas moral\/stridsv\u00e4rde om det \u00e4r h\u00f6gt eller l\u00e5gt t\u00e4nkte jag att Mariupol \u00e4r ett bra lackmustest (nu b\u00f6rjar dom […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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