{"id":6179,"date":"2022-05-23T09:55:18","date_gmt":"2022-05-23T07:55:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-05-23\/"},"modified":"2022-05-23T09:55:18","modified_gmt":"2022-05-23T07:55:18","slug":"2022-05-23","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-05-23\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-05-23"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:33<\/h2>\n

Ryssarna forts\u00e4tter d\u00f6 i det h\u00f6gsta av tempon, fram emot slutet ig\u00e5r skrev n\u00e5gon att dom sett BMP som hade reducerat infanteri och det kan v\u00e4l f\u00f6rklara att det d\u00f6r f\u00e4rre ryssar \u00e4n fordon sl\u00e5s ut, 1 BTG\/dag \u00e4r ju riktigt mycket hur man \u00e4n m\u00e4ter.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/DefenceU\/status\/1528634212563271681\/photo\/1<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:13<\/h3>\n

Det \u00e4r exakt vad jag tror SKATOR. Nu vet vi v\u00e4l dessutom att 5th Tank brigade \u00e4r f\u00e4rdig att axla rollen som murbr\u00e4cka och om man f\u00e5r gissa de tv\u00e5 mekbrigaderna och sista tank brigaden i reserv \u00e4r ocks\u00e5 upphottade till max. Vi vet ocks\u00e5 att 777 r\u00e4cker till 5st artilleribataljoner och att andra eldr\u00f6r f\u00f6rbandssatts. Sen har ju Ukraina ingen direkt brist p\u00e5 artilleri men kanske ammunition. Det kan h\u00e4nda att man f\u00f6rbereder f\u00f6r offensiv h\u00e4r och h\u00e5ller igen p\u00e5 beskjutningen lite?
\nDet st\u00e5r ju trots allt tv\u00e5 artilleribrigader, en i Kherson och en s\u00f6der Zaporoznye och det \u00e4r ganska mycket punch som inte verkar anv\u00e4ndas till kapacitetsmax.
\n\u2014
\nUkraina kan allts\u00e5 p\u00e5 tv\u00e5 st\u00e4llen leverera en 8 bataljons-sm\u00e4ll nattetid (jo jag fattar att man inte s\u00e4tter alla p\u00e5 rull mitt i natten s\u00e5 dom k\u00f6r in i varandra) och det \u00e4r nog inget vidare djupf\u00f6rsvar ryssarna har, snarare en f\u00f6rstalinje som \u00e4r hyfsad och sen n\u00e5got bakom som med lite god vilje kan kallas andra linje. Innan dom f\u00e5r fram\u00e5t har man en artilleribrigad p\u00e5 vardera sidan Dnepr i ett potentiellt omr\u00e5de f\u00f6r offensiv som kan droppa lite av varje p\u00e5 de redan loggade artm\u00e5len.
\n\u2014
\nFlyget och attackhelikoptrarna kan nog g\u00f6ra mer \u00e4n vad vi ser h\u00e4r och vid en offensiv f\u00e5r man v\u00e4l l\u00e4gga till en insats fr\u00e5n dom ocks\u00e5.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:05<\/h3>\n

Det var v\u00e4l mer balanserat l\u00e5ngt ned i artikeln skrev v\u00e4l n\u00e5n ig\u00e5r som har tillr\u00e4ckligt med pengar f\u00f6r en prenumeration men jag tycker du tydligt visar p\u00e5 att rubrik och ingress \u00e4r det viktiga. Alla oponionsbildare tar ju rygg p\u00e5 just dom tv\u00e5. Jo att kalla det territoriella anspr\u00e5k \u00e4r en riktigt rej\u00e4l glidning \ud83d\ude42
\nSen undrar man varf\u00f6r det kallas annektering och inte ockupation eller helt sonika stulet eller n\u00e5t som l\u00e5ter mindre positivt \u00e4n annektering. LW har alltid kallat det krig i Europa vilket ju \u00e4r den korrekta definitionen.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:17<\/h3>\n

V\u00e5roffensiven startade f\u00f6r en m\u00e5nad sedan och d\u00e5 skulle Ukraina ha 15 000 \u2013 30 000 d\u00f6da is\u00e5fall under den offensiven.
\nSen tillkommer s\u00e5rade X 3 \u00e4r det v\u00e4l?
\nVet inte syftet med uttalandet men vill Ukraina f\u00e5 ut det \u00e4r det v\u00e4l bra om vi st\u00f6der det.
\nSpontant tycker jag det l\u00e5ter h\u00f6gt eftersom f\u00f6rlusterna f\u00f6r 24 Februari offensiven var 10 000 eller n\u00e5t men jag vet s\u00e5klart lika lite som alla andra.
\n\u2014
\nMan f\u00e5r h\u00e5lla reda p\u00e5 h\u00e4r att Ukraina har mycket territorial, national guard, special forces police, custom guards och volunteer batallions i frontlinjerna som \u00e4r utanf\u00f6r armen p\u00e5 +200 000 och r\u00e4tt mycket av f\u00f6rlusterna \u00e4r nog hos dom.
\nN\u00e4r man ser f\u00e5ngar tex. s\u00e5 \u00e4r dom ofta r\u00e4tt skruffiga och tillh\u00f6r NG eller territorial. Nu s\u00e4ger jag inte att man\u00f6verbrigaderna inte har tagit f\u00f6rluster men att skrika h\u00f6gt och r\u00e4kna 200 000 \u2013 (30 000 x 3) blir nog riktigt fel.
\n\u2014
\nVi kan vara r\u00e4tt s\u00e4kra p\u00e5 att n\u00e4r kriget \u00e4r \u00f6ver s\u00e5 kommer Ukrainas f\u00f6rluster som vi d\u00e5 f\u00e5r siffror p\u00e5 ha varit mycket h\u00f6ga. I Mariupol var v\u00e4l f\u00f6rsvaret +10 000 har vi gissat och nu \u00e4r det noll. Vi kan ocks\u00e5 vara s\u00e4kra p\u00e5 att ryssarnas f\u00f6rluster varit h\u00f6gre \u00e4n den dagliga lottoraden.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:42<\/h2>\n

N\u00e4r man tittar p\u00e5 vad som verkar vara \u00e4kta combatfootage fr\u00e5n kadyrov tjetjenerna s\u00e5 \u00e4r v\u00e4l l\u00f6sningen p\u00e5 ryssarnas underh\u00e5llsproblem att dom inte f\u00e5r ha kvar sina vapen f\u00f6r maken till ammunitionssl\u00f6seri har jag nog aldrig sett.
\nAlla t\u00f6mmer allt dom har i riktning ukraina hela tiden.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:46<\/h3>\n

Nu \u00e4r detta bara en r\u00e4tt l\u00e5ngs\u00f6kt gissning men hon visste att hon skulle f\u00e5 sluta i riksdagen s\u00e5 hon s\u00e5lde sin r\u00f6st f\u00f6r typ 3mdr kr eller n\u00e5t som gick direkt till Kurderna (kan inte korrekt namn men ni vet vad jag menar).
\nI min v\u00e4rld \u00e4r det r\u00e4tt h\u00f6g sannolikhet att i ett korrupt klimat som det \u00e4r d\u00e4rnere och med tanke p\u00e5 att hon tillh\u00f6r gruppen s\u00e5 har hon f\u00e5tt en rej\u00e4l kickback och beh\u00f6ver inte jobba mer i sitt liv.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:49<\/h2>\n

UG har en f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga att br\u00e4nna igenom bruset, bryta ned allt i sina best\u00e5ndsdelar och sen koppla ihop helheten.
\nEfter reportaget om hur Putin et.al tv\u00e4ttar pengar s\u00e5 sl\u00e5r det mig hur dom m\u00e5ste sett Ukraina som en bisak och f\u00f6rmodligen fortfarande g\u00f6r det. Dom skulle glida in, ta \u00f6ver landet och tj\u00e4na n\u00e5gra hundra miljarder till.
\nNu b\u00f6rjar denna lilla bisak f\u00e5 hela imperiet i gungning och piskan viner med sj\u00e4lvm\u00f6rdade oligarker.
\n\u2014
\nRyssland \u00e4r en kriminell organisation som ocks\u00e5 r\u00e5kar vara ett stort land med k\u00e4rnvapen, en klan som \u00e4r beredda att m\u00f6rda alla som mots\u00e4tter sig deras st\u00f6ld som han centralbankschefen, snacka om att ha d\u00f6tt i on\u00f6dan f\u00f6r det var 10 \u00e5r f\u00f6r tidigt. V\u00e4st har i stort faciliterat detta.
\n\u2014
\nNu till det stora problemet, v\u00e4st \u00e4r r\u00e4tt veliga i sanktionerna, man forts\u00e4tter k\u00f6pa gas\/olja och bankerna \u00e4r inte helt kapade. Det som beslagtagits \u00e4r helt klart toppen p\u00e5 isberget och man har ju alla dom h\u00e4r l\u00e4ckorna att falla tillbaka p\u00e5 och skulle kunna sno ihop ett par tusen miljarder och skicka till Ukrainas stadskassa (b\u00f6r vara lite mer kontroll \u00e4n s\u00e5\u2026). Det enda som inte g\u00e5r enligt plan h\u00e4r \u00e4r ju faktiskt att Ukraina sl\u00e5r tillbaka och \u00e4ven det f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker man ju nu fixa genom att v\u00e4stliga ledare b\u00f6rjar v\u00e4dra att Putin m\u00e5ste f\u00e5 ett tr\u00f6stpris.
\n\u2014
\nV\u00e4rlden blir en b\u00e4ttre plats om denna bl\u00e4ckfisk av terror och p\u00e5verkan som finns \u00f6ver hela v\u00e4rlden f\u00f6rsvinner.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:08<\/h3>\n

Jo han m\u00e5lade ju r\u00e4tt svart, ovanligt. Ig\u00e5r kikade vi v\u00e4l p\u00e5 Popasna och kunde sl\u00e5 fast att det blir en bubbla som kommer pysa \u00f6ver tid. Severedonetsk \u00e4r ju en Ukrainsk bubbla och p\u00e5 fel sida floden s\u00e5 jag anser att det inte finns ett strategiskt v\u00e4rde i att h\u00e5lla den om situationen blir oh\u00e5llbar. Lyschyshansk \u00e4r en stor stad med flod i \u00d6ster och \u00e5krar runtomkring och kommer inte falla. L\u00e4mnar dom Severedonetsk g\u00f6r Ukraina precis vad dom skulle i fickan\/b\u00e5gen norr om Horlivka och ger upp terr\u00e4ng f\u00f6r att spara liv. I v\u00e4rsta fall f\u00e5r dom v\u00e4l vada \u00f6ver floden p\u00e5 s\u00e5nt som flyter och l\u00e4mna all tung materiel, p\u00e5 sina st\u00e4llen \u00e4r den ju 30m bred.
\n\u2014
\nNu \u00e4r det en del argument om att d\u00e5 har man inget forf\u00e4ste p\u00e5 \u00f6stra sidan Sveretsky Donets men d\u00e5 missar man att Ukraina om ett tag kommer passera floden Oskil norr om Izyum och \u00e4r p\u00e5 \u201dr\u00e4tt sida\u201d severetsky donets s\u00e5 att sl\u00e4ppa Severedonetsk \u00e4r v\u00e4l egentligen ingen biggie. Ryska forum kommer ju bli helt lyriska men det f\u00e5r vi v\u00e4l ta.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:31<\/h3>\n

Jag s\u00e4tter en femhundring p\u00e5 att 2 pansarbrigader och 2 mekbrigader \u00e4r f\u00e4rdiga f\u00f6r strid.
\nDom har s\u00e4kert extra allt. 46th Air Assault brigade har ocks\u00e5 legat i tr\u00e4da\u2026
\nNu sv\u00e4nger jag mig ju med en sm\u00e4ll p\u00e5 50 brigader men det \u00e4r f\u00f6r effekt, man\u00f6verbrigader i reserv \u00e4r v\u00e4l 8 och d\u00e5 ska 2-3 ha vakttj\u00e4nst vid norra fronten.
\nDet finns n\u00e5gra NG brigader med cirkel runt i reserv som jag tolkar som att dom \u00e4r dugliga. Det pansar som blev \u00f6verfl\u00f6digt i pansarbrigaderna kan nog f\u00f6rflyttats dit och h\u00f6ja f\u00f6rm\u00e5gan.
\nEldr\u00f6r \u00e4r det ingen brist p\u00e5 och flyget kan klippa till ocks\u00e5.
\n\u2014
\nDetta samtidigt som ryssarna bl\u00f6der ut vid Severedonetsk, Popasna, Lysman och n\u00e5t st\u00e4lle till.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:33 Ryssarna forts\u00e4tter d\u00f6 i det h\u00f6gsta av tempon, fram emot slutet ig\u00e5r skrev n\u00e5gon att dom sett BMP som 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