{"id":6275,"date":"2022-06-19T10:18:08","date_gmt":"2022-06-19T08:18:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-06-19\/"},"modified":"2022-06-19T10:18:08","modified_gmt":"2022-06-19T08:18:08","slug":"2022-06-19","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-06-19\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-06-19"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:05<\/h2>\n

Som vi v\u00e4l diskuterade ig\u00e5r har Ukraina pl\u00f6jt igenom framskjutet f\u00f6rsvar runt staden Kherson och har nu n\u00e5tt huvudf\u00f6rsvaret. D\u00e4rf\u00f6r kommer det sannolikt ta l\u00e5ng tid om inte bubblaren vild-flykt intr\u00e4ffar och det kommer \u00e5terigen tolkas som att Ukraina saknar kapacitet. Sneglar man lite p\u00e5 FIRMS s\u00e5 kryper br\u00e4nderna n\u00e4rmare Khakovka vilket betyder att antingen Ryssarna eller Ukraina skjuter artilleri n\u00e4rmare Khakovka f\u00f6r att n\u00e5got h\u00e4nder n\u00e4rmare Khakovka och min take p\u00e5 det h\u00e4r \u00e4r att Khakovka n\u00e5s f\u00f6rst men d\u00e4r \u00e4r vi som sagt inte \u00e4nnu.
\n\u2014
\nVi f\u00e5r rapporter med 2-3 dagars intervall om att ryskt flyg sl\u00e5r mot rysk uppmarsch f\u00f6rmodligen mot Dayydiv Brid, \u201dacumulation\u201d och \u201dgatherings\u201d of troops vilket jag tolkar som ryskt pansar p\u00e5 v\u00e4g.
\nAntalet utskjutna ammunitionsdep\u00e5er g\u00e5r ju snart inte att r\u00e4kna och tittar ni p\u00e5 FIRMS s\u00e5 \u00e4r det br\u00e4nder lite \u00f6verallt bakom den s\u00f6dra fronten och Krim. Vilka vapen anv\u00e4nder man eller \u00e4r det SOF och stay behind som st\u00f6kar runt?
\nUkrainska flygvapnet och armeflyget \u00e4r mycket aktivt och dom har f\u00e5tt full fart p\u00e5 artilleriet nu.
\nVid Kherson k\u00e4nns det inte som Ryssarna har \u00f6vertag i flyg och artilleri men dom \u00e4r som sagt i f\u00f6rsvar och har den f\u00f6rdelen.
\n\u2014
\nDet har lugnat ned sig vid s\u00f6dra fronten och nedan information var lite tr\u00e5kig, sist det begav sig gick dom i f\u00f6rsvar men den h\u00e4r g\u00e5ngen kan inte offensiv uteslutas enligt Ukraina.
\nhttps:\/\/www.ukrinform.net\/rubric-ato\/3510212-enemy-amassing-military-equipment-personnel-in-zaporizhzhia-region.html<\/a>
\nSen skall det v\u00e4l bli en runda anfall till f\u00f6r att omringa Severedonetsk\/Lysychansk och ned mot Slovyansk verkar det som. Jag f\u00f6rs\u00f6kte resonera kring ryska f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkningar f\u00f6r n\u00e5gra dagar sedan f\u00f6r det verkar sannerligen som att dom f\u00e5r fram reserver vi inte f\u00e5r information om och nyupps\u00e4tter utslagna BTG och k\u00f6r in dom i strid igen.
\n\u2014
\nAllt det d\u00e4r suger men sen l\u00e4ser man bloggarens information om T62 och f\u00f6rst\u00e5r att det \u00e4r helt tomt i pansarladorna och s\u00e5 kommer det positiva tillbaka. Hade Ryssarna haft T90 hade dom stridit med T90, allt annat \u00e4r f\u00f6rs\u00f6k att relativisera ett av de tydligaste tecknen p\u00e5 att ryssarna blinkar vi har haft i det h\u00e4r kriget. T62 vid S\u00f6dra fronten f\u00f6rs\u00f6kte man f\u00f6rklara bort med att dom var ypperliga i f\u00f6rsvar (skydd mot taksl\u00e5ende not so much\u2026) men det h\u00e4r blir om\u00f6jligt att runda, man har helt enkelt inte tillr\u00e4ckligt med strv kvar \ud83d\ude42
\nMin tanke h\u00e4r \u00e4r att ut\u00f6ver den dagliga lottoraden p\u00e5 +1460 s\u00e5 st\u00e5r det m\u00e5nga i bakre och i verkst\u00e4der med mekaniska fel s\u00e5 man kommer nog r\u00e4tt snabbt upp i de d\u00e4r 3500 som skulle finnas gripbara.
\nhttps:\/\/mil.in.ua\/en\/news\/t-62-tanks-reinforce-invasion-forces-in-luhansk-region\/<\/a>
\nSen har vi s\u00e5klart filmen p\u00e5 Ryskt mekskytte som rider in i strid p\u00e5 MTLB nu s\u00e5 det verkar vara lika illa med IFV och man det \u00e4r ju inte direkt bra f\u00f6r sj\u00e4lvf\u00f6rtroendet att skickas i d\u00f6den p\u00e5 en traktor.
\nDom har ocks\u00e5 skjutit ned Mi helikoptrar n\u00e5gra g\u00e5nger nu och r\u00e4tt l\u00e4nge var det bara alligator.
\n\u2014
\nMateriellt \u00e4r det Ryssland som blinkar f\u00f6rst vilket betyder att blir det en l\u00e5ng konflikt f\u00f6rlorar Ryssland. Nu vill vi ju alla ha en kort konflikt f\u00f6r att f\u00e5 ett slut p\u00e5 den h\u00e4r mardr\u00f6mmen men f\u00e5r vi inte det vinner Ukraina \u00e4nd\u00e5.
\nJag tar ocks\u00e5 tillbaka allt det v\u00e4nliga om trojkans bes\u00f6k i Kiev f\u00f6r anledningen att Boris Johnsson panikfl\u00f6g och m\u00f6tte Zelensky var att han var s\u00e5 pass orolig att Macron, Scholtz och Draghi hade lyckats lura Zelensky till d\u00e5lig fred med EU medlemskapet som morot. USA och UK g\u00f6r det dom alltid gjort, r\u00e4ddar den fria v\u00e4rlden.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:06<\/h3>\n

Vi f\u00e5r rapporter med 2-3 dagars intervall om att UKRAINSKT flyg sl\u00e5r mot rysk uppmarsch f\u00f6rmodligen mot Dayydiv Brid, \u201cacumulation\u201d och \u201cgatherings\u201d of troops vilket jag tolkar som ryskt pansar p\u00e5 v\u00e4g.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:51<\/h2>\n

Jo man m\u00e5ste ha ett h\u00e5rt koppel av sanktioner d\u00e4r man f\u00f6rv\u00e4grar rysk upprustning f\u00f6r en sak kan vi vara absolut s\u00e4kra p\u00e5, f\u00e5r dom chansen rustar dom upp och f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker igen under ett moln av vilseledande l\u00f6gner, hot och mutor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:48<\/h2>\n

Det \u00e4r bra att vi har T62 vid donbass och att ukraina anfaller vid kherson f\u00f6r det tar d\u00f6d p\u00e5 kreml-narrativet attt ukraina b\u00f6rjar svikta. Sanningen \u00e4r ju att det \u00e4r ryssen som sviktar men att han hoppas att m\u00f6rdande PR kan sminka \u00f6ver det ett tag. N\u00e4sta resa fr\u00e5n Macron, Scholtz och Draghi kommer bli i panik n\u00e4r ukraina snott tillbaka melitipol och d\u00e5 blir det f\u00f6rt\u00e4ckta hot om parkerat eu medlemskap ist\u00e4llet men det kommer imte heller funka. Det \u00e4r trist med verkligheten om man \u00e4r ryss eller st\u00f6der ryssland.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:49<\/h2>\n

Det ut som att f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkningarna vid Melitopol som skulle till s\u00f6dra fronten f\u00f6r enligt Ukraina m\u00f6jlig offensiv har till del g\u00e5tt upp till Khersonfronten. Sen enligt tidigare i tr\u00e5den och som vi v\u00e4l gissat vore en bra startpunkt f\u00f6r tour-de-Himars att ang\u00f6ra Kherson, eller S\u00f6dra fronten f\u00f6r att kn\u00e4cka ryggen p\u00e5 ryssarna d\u00e4r. Allt pekar p\u00e5 ett seri\u00f6st f\u00f6rs\u00f6k att st\u00e4nga in ryssarna vid Kherson och att ta Melitopol men allt kan ju h\u00e4nda s\u00e5klart.
\n\u2014
\nDet \u00e4r mycket bra om Ryssen f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker banda upp f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkningar (T62, matroser och MTLB\u2026) till Kherson f\u00f6r d\u00e5 blir det fler m\u00e5l p\u00e5 landsv\u00e4g f\u00f6r flyget att sl\u00e5 ut. Det blir ocks\u00e5 en f\u00f6rsvagning av Melitopol. Det kan ju bara betyda tv\u00e5 saker, ryssarna har inte tillr\u00e4ckligt att f\u00f6rst\u00e4rka b\u00e5da och dom b\u00f6rjar bli oroliga \u00f6ver Ukrainas framst\u00f6tar uppe vid Khersonfronten. F\u00e5r vi se dom \u00f6verge all terr\u00e4ng mellan Khakovka \u2013 Dayydiv Brid s\u00e5 vet vi att dom inte ens har tillr\u00e4ckligt att f\u00f6rsvara hela Khersonfronten utan kraftsamlar i staden Kherson vilket bara g\u00f6r att Ukraina kan l\u00e5sa alla tre broarna (om man nu kan k\u00f6ra p\u00e5 t\u00e5gbron vilket man v\u00e4l b\u00f6r kunna). Med Himars har man f\u00f6r \u00f6vrigt l\u00e5st broarna redan idag med r\u00e4tt ammunition.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:03<\/h3>\n

Jag \u00e4r mycket skeptisk till Macron, Draghi och Scholtz och undrar om det inte ligger mer bakom \u00e4n s\u00e5. Det \u00e4r tusentals miljarder som snotts fr\u00e5n Ryssland senaste 20 \u00e5ren och dom har anv\u00e4nts till lyxyachter men ocks\u00e5 till att bygga upp ett st\u00f6d f\u00f6r Ryssland. Nu s\u00e4ger jag inte att Macron personligen f\u00e5r veckopeng av Putin men den kretsen som Macron lystrar till kan mycket v\u00e4l ha ett spindeln\u00e4t av olika intressen i Putins ryssland.
\n\u2014
\nEn fem\u00e5ring kan ju se att det sm\u00e4rtfria alternativet \u00e4r att kapsla in Ryssland bakom NATO och sen f\u00f6rv\u00e4gra dom att bygga upp sin arme igen med sanktioner.
\nAllt annat kommer leda till en rond tre och f\u00f6respr\u00e5kar man n\u00e5t av dom andra alternativen som trojkan g\u00f6r, d\u00e5 g\u00f6r man det vetandes att det kommer bli ett till krig lika blodigt som detta men dom \u00e4r ju r\u00e4tt lugna f\u00f6r dom vet att det blir \u00f6steuropa som tar sm\u00e4llen.
\n\u2014
\nJo, Girkin tror ju p\u00e5 n\u00e5n typ av kollaps i Ryssland och det vore ju s\u00e5klart kul om det ryska imperiet kunde implodera helt f\u00f6r egen maskin och bli ofarligt den v\u00e4gen men det \u00e4r ju en j\u00e4dra massa k\u00e4rnvapen man m\u00e5ste f\u00e5 tag p\u00e5 is\u00e5fall.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:05 Som vi v\u00e4l diskuterade ig\u00e5r har Ukraina pl\u00f6jt igenom framskjutet f\u00f6rsvar runt staden Kherson och har nu n\u00e5tt huvudf\u00f6rsvaret. 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