{"id":6280,"date":"2022-06-23T10:07:03","date_gmt":"2022-06-23T08:07:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-06-23\/"},"modified":"2022-06-23T10:07:03","modified_gmt":"2022-06-23T08:07:03","slug":"2022-06-23","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-06-23\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-06-23"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:02<\/h3>\n

Solpaneler skiner ju och ryssarna \u00e4r som tjuvaktiga skator s\u00e5 s\u00e4kert h\u00f6g risk att dom f\u00f6rsvinner \ud83d\ude42
\n\u2014
\nI tr\u00e5den n\u00e4r man kom ned till 10\/16 och vidare s\u00e5 var det mycket intressant information. Dom har f\u00f6rsvagat just runt Tokmak och T62 har g\u00e5tt i f\u00f6rsvar borta vid Vasylivka trodde han. Det b\u00f6r ju rimligen vara f\u00f6r att Ryssarna \u00e4r oroliga f\u00f6r att Ukraina skall g\u00e5 ned l\u00e4ngs Dnepr och l\u00e5sa broarna.
\nTokmak verkar ligga \u201dmellan\u201d tv\u00e5 f\u00f6rsvarslinjer och Ukraina st\u00e5r norr d\u00e4rom. Ryssarna har v\u00e4l f\u00f6rsvar i alla byarna ned till Tokmak men med lite precisionsartilleri, dr\u00f6narspaning och nattanfall kan man ju ta ett mindre samh\u00e4lle och g\u00e5 i f\u00f6rsvar och jobba sig fram\u00e5t.
\n\u2014
\nTror att nyckeln till Melitopol \u00e4r att skapa rej\u00e4lt med kaos fr\u00e5n partisanerna och kanske n\u00e5n \u00f6verskeppning \u00f6ver Dnepr norr om Khakovka samtidigt som man trycker p\u00e5 vid Kherson och S\u00f6dra fronten. S\u00e5 fort ryssarna f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker dra bort f\u00f6rband fr\u00e5n Donbass-proper linjen trycker Ukraina p\u00e5 d\u00e4r ocks\u00e5 s\u00e5 det blir sv\u00e5rt att f\u00e5 fram reserver innan det \u00e4r f\u00f6r sent. Har tydligen synts syriska f\u00f6rband, allts\u00e5 etniska syrier, i Melitopol s\u00e5 man har absolut inte sina b\u00e4sta f\u00f6rband i f\u00f6rsvar d\u00e4r. 1st Army har v\u00e4l hela frontavsnitt?
\nH\u00f6g risk dock f\u00f6r en kil ned mot Melitopol \u00e4r r\u00e4tt exponerad och man m\u00e5ste g\u00e5 i f\u00f6rsvar i b\u00e5da flankerna.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:15<\/h3>\n

Nu \u00e4r ju t\u00e4rningen redan kastad i Ukraina och allt dom kan g\u00f6ra \u00e4r att gasa p\u00e5 och s\u00e5 f\u00e5r det fria v\u00e4st bygga upp landet n\u00e4r ryssarna \u00e4r utkastade.
\nMen jo, det system som fanns under kalla kriget, tex. v\u00e5ra krigsflygbaser och de d\u00e4r bergrummen f\u00f6r olja osv. var ju just f\u00f6r ett scenario som detta och det skulle v\u00e4l Ukraina ocks\u00e5 f\u00f6rberett sig f\u00f6r.
\nFinns dock en stor f\u00f6rdel \u2013 ryssarna b\u00f6rjar f\u00e5 d\u00e5ligt med den typen av vapen och hela europa \u00e4r fredat och erbjuder sin kapacitet s\u00e5 Ukraina stryps inte p\u00e5 samma s\u00e4tt som om dom st\u00e5tt ensamma.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:25<\/h3>\n

S\u00e5 fort det f\u00f6rsta skottet avfyrats \u00e5ker stridsplanen ut genom bunker\u00f6ppningen var det v\u00e4l n\u00e5gon k\u00e4nd rysk general som sa, han som kom p\u00e5 den sv\u00e4ngande-d\u00f6rren planen som fastnade i skyttegravarna i WW1.
\n\u2014
\nVisst kan v\u00e4st ta ett utn\u00f6tningskrig mot Ryssland men d\u00e5 \u00e4r Ukraina som land slut och sen kommer andra skurkstater \u00f6ver tid ge sig in i det geopolitiska spelet. Ett n\u00e5gorlunda snabbt avslut i Ukraina \u00e4r ett m\u00e5ste.
\nDet blir lite av v\u00e5r tids Nagasaki mot Kina ocks\u00e5 s\u00e5 dom avh\u00e5ller sig fr\u00e5n sitt v\u00e4rldskrig i Asien.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:27<\/h3>\n

Jag tycker det faktum att vi ser T62 i strid i stor m\u00e4ngd (120 + \u00e5tminstone tv\u00e5 t\u00e5glaster till) talar f\u00f6r det du skriver.
\nRyssarna \u00e4r helt desperata i sina f\u00f6rs\u00f6k att kn\u00e4cka ryggen p\u00e5 Ukraina och g\u00e5r all in.
\nAtt man f\u00f6rsvara Kherson och s\u00f6dra fronten med 1st Army och allt bottenskrap man kan hitta \u00e4r ett annat, man satsar allt p\u00e5 r\u00f6tt i b\u00e5gen\/fickan norr om Luhansk och hoppas p\u00e5 ett genombrott f\u00f6r att ha n\u00e5got att f\u00f6rhandla om.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:33<\/h3>\n

V\u00e4l talat.
\nOm jag uppfattat detta r\u00e4tt s\u00e5 har det som sk\u00e4nkts nu, mosaiken, varit f\u00f6rsta s\u00e4ndningen som ger Ukraina m\u00f6jlighet till det dom g\u00f6r nu. Det b\u00f6rjar v\u00e4l s\u00e5 sm\u00e5tt ta slut p\u00e5 \u00f6ststatsmateriel men verkst\u00e4derna i \u00f6stra europa g\u00e5r f\u00f6r h\u00f6gtryck att renovera upp allt dom kan.
\nUSA skall ju b\u00f6rja tr\u00e4na Ukrainska piloter p\u00e5 F-16 och jag h\u00e4vdar fortfarande att jag sett att Polen skall tillverka Krab, ptg och den d\u00e4r K-stridsvagnen dom har p\u00e5 licens och s\u00e4lja till Ukraina.
\nVad Ukraina beh\u00f6ver p\u00e5 sikt \u00e4r ett f\u00e5tal modeller av schyssta vagnar, luftv\u00e4rn och l\u00e5ngdistansvapen.
\nNu har jag skrivit det f\u00f6r ofta men Strf-90 och Archer borde skickats ig\u00e5r.
\nSen tycker jag att NATO skall bev\u00e4pna v\u00e5r \u00f6stra front med schyssta vapen f\u00f6r nu g\u00f6r dom l\u00e4nderna s\u00e5 gott dom kan och spenderar enorma summor p\u00e5 sitt f\u00f6rsvar medans resten av NATO (europa) sitter tryggt bakom dom.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:40<\/h2>\n

Jag har sv\u00e5rt att se att den s\u00f6dra omfattningen kring Lysychansk skall kunna lyckas?
\nDet \u00e4r tv\u00e5 stora orter att \u00f6verkomma v\u00e4ster om Lysychansk \u2013 Vovchorayivka och Verknokamyanka.
\nF\u00f6rutsatt att Ryssarna inte kommer \u00f6ver Severersky Donets s\u00e5 kan dom komma \u00e4nda upp inp\u00e5 dessa tv\u00e5 f\u00f6rsvar utan att underh\u00e5llsv\u00e4garna in till Lysychansk klipps.
\nEn st\u00f6rre omfattning \u00e4n s\u00e5 och man \u00e4r n\u00e4stan i n\u00e4sta f\u00f6rsvarslinje Siversk \u2013 Bakhmut och det finns en del naturliga formationer emellan som ser bra ut att parkera sig f\u00f6r f\u00f6rsvar i.
\nDet k\u00e4nns faktiskt som att om Ryssarna toksatsar p\u00e5 att ta hela Luhansk oblast s\u00e5 kommer det kosta dom en enorm m\u00e4ngd grillade BTG f\u00f6r det \u00e4r en formidabel h\u00e4stskoformad f\u00f6rsvarslinje f\u00f6r Ukraina och ju mindre den blir ju t\u00e4tare \u00e4r f\u00f6rsvaret och i den v\u00e4stra flanken st\u00e5r dom i f\u00f6rsvarslinjen Seversk \u2013 Bakhmut och lurar.
\nMan kan ju alltid hoppas att det \u00e4r Putins vilja att hela Luhansk oblast skall er\u00f6vras.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12:02 Solpaneler skiner ju och ryssarna \u00e4r som tjuvaktiga skator s\u00e5 s\u00e4kert h\u00f6g risk att dom f\u00f6rsvinner \ud83d\ude42 \u2014 I […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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