{"id":6370,"date":"2022-07-18T09:44:34","date_gmt":"2022-07-18T07:44:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-07-18\/"},"modified":"2022-07-18T09:44:34","modified_gmt":"2022-07-18T07:44:34","slug":"2022-07-18","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-07-18\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-07-18"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:00<\/h3>\n

Jo precis, nu har dom k\u00f6rt slut p\u00e5 de erfarna gamla VDV, Spetznaz, marines som dom v\u00e4l rekryterat tidigare?
\nMan beh\u00f6ver fylla leden men inga ans\u00f6kningar av vettige ex-soldater f\u00f6r alla vet vilken livsl\u00e4ngd man har i Ukraina nu.
\nD\u00e5 f\u00e5r det bli bottenskrapet, kriminella, mer psykopatiska \u00e4n innan, d\u00e5liga soldategenskaper osv.
\nWagner var ju redan innan ett slutet ekosystem d\u00e4r ENORMA \u00f6vergrepp mot civila i de l\u00e4nder dom verkat har accepterats. Dom har haft skydd av Ryssland och det land dom jobbat i, helt otroligt men nu blev det instant karma.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:06<\/h3>\n

En m\u00e5nad in i kriget f\u00f6rs\u00f6kte alla ryska f\u00f6rsvarsanst\u00e4llda p\u00e5 Krim s\u00e4lja sina l\u00e4genheter (ryktades det) s\u00e5 nu \u00e4r det v\u00e4l \u00e4nnu oroligare.
\n\u2014
\nAllas \u00f6gon \u00e4r v\u00e4l p\u00e5 Kertjbron kan man t\u00e4nka. Skulle den vara intekt n\u00e4r Ukraina snor tillbaka Melitopol b\u00f6r det bli r\u00e4tt t\u00e4t trafik i \u00f6stg\u00e5ende trafikf\u00e4lt.
\n\u2014
\nVid Kherson vill man v\u00e4l helst f\u00f6rv\u00e4gra Ryssarna retr\u00e4tt s\u00e5 dom inte kan g\u00e5 i f\u00f6rsvar strax \u00f6ster om Dnepr men vid Krim har jag nu \u00e4ndrat \u00e5sikt till att om man inte spr\u00e4nger bron s\u00e5 f\u00e5r man ju halv\u00f6n gratis. Finns nog inte heller s\u00e5 m\u00e5nga BTG d\u00e4rnere nu s\u00e5 ingen direkt skalp man f\u00f6rlorar. Ukraina tar Melitopol och sen ett ultimatum \u2013 om \u00e5tta dagar spr\u00e4nger vi bron, se till att ni \u00e5ker hem till Ryssland f\u00f6r sen \u00e4r det k\u00f6rt.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:27<\/h2>\n

Fl\u00f6g f\u00f6rbi hos en twittergeneral att HIMARS hj\u00e4lper till att dunka p\u00e5 Ryss i grop nu borta i Kherson. Full fart p\u00e5 f\u00f6rbek\u00e4mpningen s\u00e5ledes. R\u00e4tt tyst annars i fog of war och Kyselivka \u00e4r tyv\u00e4rr inte med i den dagliga artlistan l\u00e4ngre\u2026
\nUnder dagen uppdateras v\u00e4l FIRMS, dom ligger v\u00e4l l\u00e5gt p\u00e5 helgerna, s\u00e5 f\u00e5r man se var det brinner.
\nF\u00e5r ocks\u00e5 intrycket att ryskt artilleri saktat ned och det var v\u00e4l n\u00e5n typ av tr\u00e5dkonsensus att vi skulle se resultat om n\u00e5n vecka n\u00e4r HIMARS \u00f6ppnade upp.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:30<\/h3>\n

\u00c4r v\u00e4l samma anfallsm\u00e5l i s\u00f6der; Kherson, Khakovka, Tokmak och Volnovakha.
\nHar funderat p\u00e5 om Donetsk \u2013 Horivka b\u00f6rjar bli svagt och Ukraina kan sno n\u00e5gra byar men annars \u00e4r det v\u00e4l borta vid Izyum och att aldrig ge Ryssarna hela Luhansk Oblast som g\u00e4ller?
\n\u2014
\nNu n\u00e4r det b\u00f6rjar bli kaotiskt s\u00e5 \u00f6kar m\u00f6jligheterna f\u00f6r partisaner, SOF, fj\u00e4rrpatruller och allm\u00e4nt fria kriget och det b\u00f6r vi rimligen f\u00e5 se mer av. Till exempel s\u00e5 \u00e4r ju l\u00e5nga ammunitionskonvojer p\u00e5 landsv\u00e4g r\u00e4tt tacksamma m\u00e5l f\u00f6r sm\u00e5 fyramanspatruller med n\u00e5gra minor och n\u00e5n ksp.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:32<\/h3>\n

Jag tror faktiskt att Krim kommer t\u00f6mmas n\u00e4r Ukraina st\u00e5r i Melitopol om dom inte klipper bron \u00f6ver Kertj.
\nFlottan har f\u00f6rmodligen flyttats pga. 300km raketerna men KAN ocks\u00e5 ha flyttats f\u00f6r att man vet att Ukraina kommer g\u00e5 fram\u00e5t vid Kherson och S\u00f6dra fronten snart. Det \u00e4r ju inte bara fartygen utan ocks\u00e5 en enorm underh\u00e5llskedja som skall fraktas till ryska hamnar och det tar tid. Men f\u00f6rmodligen \u00e4r det v\u00e4l l\u00e5ngr\u00e4ckviddarna.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:59<\/h3>\n

Argus, ditt sista stycke \u00e4r ju lite revolutionerande. Nu \u00e4r det ju inte samma men jag har nog antagit sedan b\u00f6rjan av det h\u00e4r kriget att v\u00e4st tryckt in SOF i Ukraina, att stridsledningen \u00e4r proppfull av amerikanska officerare, osv. osv. osv. och precis i b\u00f6rjan n\u00e4r foreign legion uppsattes skrev vi v\u00e4l i tr\u00e5den att syftet med den var att f\u00e5 in v\u00e4stlig soldatkompetens (allts\u00e5 inte veteraner) lagligt i Ukraina och att det var p\u00e5fallande m\u00e5nga veteraner som d\u00f6k upp i fyramanspatruller.
\n\u2014
\nTill det (gissar du) d\u00e5 att man har alla nyckelkompetenser som beh\u00f6vs f\u00f6r att nya system skall funka genom foreign legion. Verkar helt rimligt om du fr\u00e5gar mig, varf\u00f6r g\u00f6ra annorlunda och blir det n\u00e5gon diskussion s\u00e5 har man en tj\u00e4nstledighet eller upps\u00e4gning som bevis att hela kompaniet \u00e5kte som frivilliga med sina personliga vapen och bef\u00e4lsstruktur.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:29<\/h2>\n

Jag tycker det \u00e4r r\u00e4tt kul, men ocks\u00e5 r\u00e4tt uppenbart, att de som ritar upp anfallsplanerna ju ocks\u00e5 sitter och tittar p\u00e5 en karta precis som vi. Nu har dom ju o\u00e4ndligt mycket mer information om l\u00e4get p\u00e5 marken \u00e4n oss men \u00e4r det en stad som ser ut som en arg igelkott och skulle vara bra att ha, d\u00e5 ser ju amerikanerna i den ukrainska staben det ocks\u00e5.
\nKriget \u00e4r m\u00e5ngt och mycket en utman\u00f6vrering att ta dominerande terr\u00e4ng, tog mig ett tag att f\u00f6rst\u00e5 det i b\u00f6rjan n\u00e4r man t\u00e4nkte med dom stora penseldragen precis som Patton skulle gjort, min farmors mor var ju hans sekreterare och allt det d\u00e4r.. Det gick ju utm\u00e4rkt att sno en stad n\u00e4r den var l\u00e4ttf\u00f6rsvarad och sen l\u00e5ta ryssarna ta den under tre veckor i utbyte mot ett par grillade BTG.
\n\u2014
\nJust nu k\u00e4nns det lite som en vattenpaus vid Kherson och S\u00f6dra fronten och aldrig en chans i helskotta att Ryssarna f\u00e5r fram artammunition dit nu. Dom har tom. flytta avlastningspunkterna \u00f6sterut och h\u00e4mtar allt med lastbil direkt till fronten \u2013 dom kommer inte f\u00e5 fram en uppskattad daglig f\u00f6rbrukning per dag och mycket snart kommer Ukrainska allt som finns inne p\u00e5 djupet att b\u00f6rja plocka bort lastbilsflottan \u2013 den ordern har nog g\u00e5tt ut till partisaner, stay behind, sof, fria kriget f\u00f6rband och hela v\u00e4sts samlade sof som h\u00e4rjar bakom s\u00f6dra fronten.
\n\u2014
\nHIMARS pangar v\u00e4l p\u00e5 och slut p\u00e5 dom riktigt h\u00e4ftiga m\u00e5len kanske, dom som sm\u00e4ller med ett stort boom och kanske ammunitionen. D\u00e4remot s\u00e5 blir det ju fest ingen n\u00e4r dom f\u00e5r 300km r\u00e4ckviddara, d\u00e5 ryker moderdep\u00e5n mitt i m\u00f6rkaste Donbass, den som l\u00e4mnar en m\u00e5nkrater efter sig.
\n\u2014
\nSen v\u00e4ntar jag ivrigt p\u00e5 Stuka-effekten vid Kherson, den kommer..
\n\u2014
\n(en liten disclaimer att alla definitiva antaganden bara \u00e4r kryddade vilda gissningar).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:34<\/h4>\n

haha, ja det vore en r\u00e4tt bra ide f\u00f6r Krims-ryska garnision, sen s\u00e4ljer man mat och vatten till dom snordyrt.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:50<\/h2>\n

Det kommer bli ett g\u00e4ng brigader \u00f6ver nu n\u00e4r fickan\/b\u00e5gen norr om Horlivka \u00e4r utj\u00e4mnad, alla f\u00e5r inte plats i Siversk-Bakhmut linjen. Om n\u00e5n m\u00e5nad eller tv\u00e5 \u00e4r s\u00e5 \u00e4r dom refittade och redo att grilla BTGs igen dom som \u00e4r v\u00e4rst \u00e5tg\u00e5ngna och n\u00e5gra kan man v\u00e4l flytta till Donetsk \u2013 Horlivka och Izyum.
\nF\u00f6rbandskarartan f\u00f6resl\u00e5r visst intresse av Volnovakha fr\u00e5n Ukrainas sida.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:49<\/h3>\n

En Erik14 grej, han b\u00f6rjade med Patton.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:50<\/h3>\n

Det \u00e4r nog ett jobbigt 3D krig f\u00f6r ryssarna just nu, 360 frontlinje runt dig var du \u00e4n \u00e4r och titta aldrig upp.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:20<\/h2>\n

Nu bl\u00e5ste jag igenom senaste FIRMS och det st\u00f6der ovan, en typ omfattning av Kherson, Davyidiv Brid, Tokmak, Polohy och Volnovakha. Det \u00e4r absolut ingen rysk v\u00e4gg av artilleri l\u00e4ngre men viss beskjutning verkar dom lyckas med.
\nLite halvlugnt, vattenpaus.
\n\u2014
\nN\u00e5got som \u00e4r lite nytt \u00e4r att bakom hela s\u00f6dra fronten \u00e4r det br\u00e4nder \u00f6verallt \u00e4nda ned till Krim. Det h\u00e4r \u00e4r relativt nytt och f\u00f6rut har det varit enstaka s\u00e5 min gissning \u00e4r att bakom s\u00f6dra fronten kokar det just nu med b\u00e5de HIMARS och fria kriget. Sm\u00e5 snygga p\u00e4rlband av br\u00e4nder l\u00e4ngs v\u00e4garna ammunitionstransporterna m\u00e5ste \u00e5ka \ud83d\ude42
\n\u2014
\nF\u00f6rs\u00f6ker ocks\u00e5 hitta en vinkel p\u00e5 nedan artikel men det g\u00e5r inte, hur jag \u00e4n skriver att vi vet att det \u00e4r slut n\u00e4r \u00e5tta\u00e5ringarna syns vid fronten s\u00e5 blir det inte r\u00e4tt s\u00e5 jag g\u00f6r inte det.
\nhttps:\/\/www.ukrinform.net\/rubric-ato\/3531412-russia-undertaking-longterm-efforts-to-rebuild-forces-for-protracted-war-in-ukraine-isw.html<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:00 Jo precis, nu har dom k\u00f6rt slut p\u00e5 de erfarna gamla VDV, Spetznaz, marines som dom v\u00e4l rekryterat tidigare? 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