{"id":6376,"date":"2022-07-27T07:24:08","date_gmt":"2022-07-27T05:24:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-07-27\/"},"modified":"2022-07-27T07:24:08","modified_gmt":"2022-07-27T05:24:08","slug":"2022-07-27","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-07-27\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-07-27"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

19:13<\/h2>\n

\u00c4r v\u00e4l r\u00e4tt klart vad Ukraina har f\u00f6r intention med bron?
\nSv\u00e5r att sl\u00e5 ut \u2013 ja, men vilja och ammunition finnes s\u00e5 dom gasar p\u00e5.
\n\u2014
\nVi har ju kommit till en punkt d\u00e4r alla f\u00f6rst\u00e5r att kherson snart \u00e4r av-ryssifierat.
\nDet finns en tr\u00f6ghet i det h\u00e4r tills det inte finns en tr\u00f6ghet l\u00e4ngre och d\u00e5 g\u00e5r det fort. Det som verkligen accelererar f\u00f6rloppet \u00e4r hot om inringning, och det har ju nu aktiverats.
\n\u2014
\nFick fr\u00e5gan i f\u00f6rrg\u00e5r om tidsplanen, \u00e4r ju bekv\u00e4mt att vara superpositiv hela tiden med ett snyggt \u2013 snart h\u00e4nder det \u2013 utan att specificera n\u00e4rmare.. I Maj blev det ukrainas f\u00f6rsta motoffensiver. Ryssarnas offensiva kapacitet var f\u00f6rvisso l\u00e5ngt ut\u00f6ver vad jag t\u00e4nkt mig men det gick ju uselt \u00e4nd\u00e5 f\u00f6r dom. Sen kom den efterl\u00e4ngtade offensiven vid Kherson med lite sp\u00e4nnande flod\u00f6verg\u00e5ngar men det var positioneringsstrider visade det sig. Med vidare f\u00f6rberedelser och himars + m\u00e5ls\u00f6kande 155mm s\u00e5 \u00e4r det v\u00e4l dags f\u00f6r offensiva operationer \u201dp\u00e5 riktigt\u201d manegen \u00e4r iallafall krattad och akrobatgruppen st\u00e5r och v\u00e4rmer upp med djupa kn\u00e4b\u00f6j.
\n\u2014
\nI ett par veckor har det f\u00f6rbek\u00e4mpats och broarna \u00e4r klippta. Det finns tillr\u00e4ckligt med man\u00f6verbrigader, om n\u00e5gra m\u00e5nader \u00e4r v\u00e4garna leriga och ryssarnas offensiv har nu stannat upp. D\u00e5 jag trodde ryssarna skulle f\u00e5 slut p\u00e5 livslust redan i maj t\u00e4nkte jag att ukraina skulle anfalla s\u00e5 fort ryssarna stannade upp men ryssarna fortsatte fram tills nu, och nu har dom s\u00e5 sm\u00e5tt b\u00f6rjat tackla av s\u00e5 det finns en chans att Ukraina v\u00e4ljer att agera nu n\u00e4r ryssarna \u00e4r som svagast.
\n\u2014
\nTidsplan?
\nFr\u00e5gar ni mig \u00e4r v\u00e4stra sidan dnepr av-russifierat innan slutet Augusti. N\u00e4r botten g\u00e5r ur d\u00e5 kommer det g\u00e5 fort \u00e4r min gissning, vilken dag det spricker g\u00e5r ju inte att sp\u00e5 om, imorgon eller veckor bort. Det \u00e4r nog stor oro hos de tjuvaktiga skatorna nu, hur skall man f\u00e5 hem allt man snott nu n\u00e4r man inte kan k\u00f6ra st\u00f6ldgodset \u00f6ver broarna. \u00c4r nog full snickeriverkstad i baserna och hemmagjorda pirror g\u00e5r f\u00f6r flera flaskor vodka.
\n\u2014
\nTidsplan s\u00f6dra fronten, Ukraina har laddat upp f\u00f6r en ordentlig sm\u00e4ll d\u00e4r verkar det som. Dom \u00e4r ju inte dummare \u00e4n att dom kommer f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka utnyttja kaoset vid Kherson f\u00f6r att ta Melitopol och kanske lyckas det men om inte k\u00e4nns det som en viss tr\u00f6ghet kommer finnas d\u00e4r?
\nDet b\u00f6r inte heller infinna sig en stuka effekt vid s\u00f6dra fronten s\u00e5 ukraina f\u00e5r v\u00e4l sl\u00e5 sig igenom.
\n\u2014
\nHur l\u00e5ng tid tar det d\u00e5?
\nL\u00e5ngk\u00f6raren \u00e4r ju beroende p\u00e5 vad ryssarna f\u00e5r fram i f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkningar men att Melitopol skall tas under h\u00f6sten f\u00e5r v\u00e4l anses helt rimligt om alla k\u00e4glorna inte faller direkt och dom f\u00e5r sl\u00e5 sig ned fr\u00e5n Tokmak. Ukraina har det som prioriterat m\u00e5l.
\n\u2014
\nUt\u00f6ver Melitopol \u00e4r det sv\u00e5rt att sp\u00e5, h\u00e4r kan ju Ryssland helt sonika kasta in handduken och dra eller sl\u00e5ss f\u00f6r varje meter. N\u00e4st p\u00e5 tur efter det \u00e4r v\u00e4l Izyum
\noch att g\u00e5 \u00f6sterut fr\u00e5n floden Oskil och sen g\u00f6ra livet surt f\u00f6r ryssarna i donbass tills som drar. Tidsplan f\u00f6r det kommer vi ha klart f\u00f6r oss augusti -september men det \u00e4r nog r\u00e4tt klart att ukraina vill f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka kasta ut ryssarna fr\u00e5n sott territorium s\u00e5 fort det g\u00e5r. Ett l\u00e5ngt krig ger \u00f6ppningar f\u00f6r putin.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:27<\/h3>\n

Har flugit runt lite om att Antonovskybron \u00e4r sp\u00e4nnarmerad. Har googlat men lyckas inte f\u00e5 det bekr\u00e4ftat. En slakarmerad bro g\u00e5r ju att reparera med dessa skador men en sp\u00e4nnarmerad bro g\u00e5r inte att reparera s\u00e5 som skadorna nu ser ut.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:40<\/h4>\n

Nu l\u00e4ste jag bloggen och ser att bloggaren har diskuterat armering etc. i detalj s\u00e5 ovan kommentar kan f\u00f6rpassas till skuggorna.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:49<\/h3>\n

Jo precis, jag har ju alltid t\u00e4nkt att dom skulle l\u00e5ta Ryssarna v\u00e4lja och sen skulle dom t\u00f6mma omr\u00e5det innanf\u00f6r Inhulets men ukraina var smartare \u00e4n s\u00e5 och har ju klippt exakt alla broar (utom dammbron v\u00e4l som du skriver) s\u00e5 det blev tv\u00e5 mottis precis som du skriver.
\nJag har t\u00e4nkt med dammbron att d\u00e5 m\u00e5ste dom banda p\u00e5 landsv\u00e4g ned dit och sen blir det trafikstockning osv. s\u00e5 d\u00e4r kommer dom ta enorma f\u00f6rluster i vilket fall. Sen har det v\u00e4l spunnits lite i tr\u00e5den om man med ett v\u00e4lriktat skott kan g\u00f6ra k\u00f6rbanan ofarbar utan att sl\u00e5 ut dammen.
\n\u2014
\nSkall man vara petig s\u00e5 kommer nog ryssarna s\u00e4tta 30 kalibr i den dammen n\u00e4r dom f\u00e5tt klart f\u00f6r sig att inga fler ryssar kommer kunna ta sig \u00f6ver den, \u00e4r vad jag tror.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:56<\/h3>\n

Allts\u00e5 Krim \u00e4r ju redan \u201d\u00e5tertaget\u201d i och med att man tar Melitopol och sen f\u00f6rst hotar med att bl\u00e5sa bort Kertjbron och sen om det beh\u00f6vs klipper den. Krim kommer av bara farten.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:27<\/h3>\n

Jag \u00e4r ingen broexpert \u00e4ven om pysslar en hel del med \u00e5tg\u00e4rder p\u00e5 broar i jobbet men \u00e4r r\u00e4tt s\u00e4ker p\u00e5 att kapas armering i sp\u00e4nnarmerade broar (brosegment) s\u00e5 g\u00e5r det inte att reparera, det \u00e4r om\u00f6jligt.
\nSen kan det ju bero p\u00e5 hur den \u00e4r uppbyggd men \u00e4r det Xm mellan segmenten och man har lyckats kapa armeringen i ett segment d\u00e5 \u00e4r det segmentet ej farbart och det spelar ingen roll vad man g\u00f6r.
\nF\u00f6rhoppningsvis \u00e4r det s\u00e5 l\u00e5ngt att ryssarna inte kan l\u00e4gga n\u00e5got bropelare \u2013 bropelare och k\u00f6ra \u00f6ver p\u00e5.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

19:13 \u00c4r v\u00e4l r\u00e4tt klart vad Ukraina har f\u00f6r intention med bron? Sv\u00e5r att sl\u00e5 ut \u2013 ja, men vilja […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6376","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ukraina","category-arkiv01"],"yoast_head":"\n2022-07-27 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-07-27\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2022-07-27 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"19:13 \u00c4r v\u00e4l r\u00e4tt klart vad Ukraina har f\u00f6r intention med bron? 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