{"id":6380,"date":"2022-07-31T10:11:28","date_gmt":"2022-07-31T08:11:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-07-31\/"},"modified":"2022-07-31T10:11:28","modified_gmt":"2022-07-31T08:11:28","slug":"2022-07-31","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-07-31\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-07-31"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:44<\/h2>\n

Jag spinner vidare p\u00e5 mitt sena inl\u00e4gg f\u00f6r tv\u00e5 dagar sedan att FIRMS f\u00f6resl\u00e5r galen f\u00f6rbek\u00e4mpning N\u00d6 om Khakovka och V om Melitopol. Tittar man p\u00e5 kartan s\u00e5 finns det en fin V-\u00d6 f\u00f6rsvarslinje vid Verkhnii Rohachyk och sen en liknande norrut.
\nNu har jag noll bel\u00e4gg f\u00f6r detta och skulle man tajma det fel blir det nog trist men\u2026
\nKan man f\u00e5 ig\u00e5ng en \u00f6verskeppning vid Zolota Balka av f\u00f6rst n\u00e5n infanteribataljon som solfj\u00e4drar ut sig och sen \u00f6ver med lite pansar p\u00e5 bilf\u00e4rja s\u00e5 skulle man skapa ett hot i \u201dryggen\u201d p\u00e5 s\u00f6dra fronten.
\nArtilleriet st\u00e5r p\u00e5 v\u00e4stra stranden och skyddar med indirekt eld.
\n\u2014
\nJ\u00e4ttebonusen vore ju Melitopol men d\u00e5 m\u00e5ste man nog h\u00e5lla trycket uppe vid s\u00f6dra fronten rej\u00e4lt och sen f\u00e5 en total partisan-resning samtidigt som man k\u00f6r eld\u00f6verfall mot allt dom kan bakom hela s\u00f6dra fronten f\u00f6r maximalt kaos.
\nTroligare \u00e4r v\u00e4l att dom k\u00f6r en Davyidiv Brid och g\u00e5r i f\u00f6rsvar i en halvb\u00e5ge med vattendragen S och N och sen Verkhnii Rohachyk som f\u00f6rsvar \u00f6sterut. Den gamla klassiska ta n\u00e5got ryssarna vill ha och l\u00e5t dom f\u00e5 betala med grillade BTG.
\n\u2014
\nRyssarna beh\u00f6ver br\u00e4nna massa BTG p\u00e5 att f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka neutralisera hotet och Ukraina ligger i sina v\u00e4rn och korrigerar indirekt eld s\u00e5 fort ryssarna g\u00e5r in i ufa. Det k\u00e4nns r\u00e4tt Ukrainskt att g\u00f6ra s\u00e5 och inte helt otroligt men viss risk finnes.
\n\u2014
\nF\u00f6r \u00f6vrigt s\u00e5 har brohuvudet vid Davyidiv Brid aldrig fallit, dom har h\u00e5llit skogsomr\u00e5det V om samh\u00e4llet hela tiden verkar det som. F\u00f6rutom uppe vid Vysokopilia s\u00e5 verkar det vara lite stridspaus igen och Kyselivka \u00e4r inte med i dagliga art-rapporten tr\u00e5kigt nog.
\nDet \u00e4r m\u00e4rkliga br\u00e4nder p\u00e5 FIRMS, det kan vara moln och sen uppdateras det v\u00e4l inte p\u00e5 helgen men man f\u00e5r k\u00e4nslan av en stridspaus vid Kherson och s\u00f6dra fronten n\u00e4r man tittar p\u00e5 brandkartan samtidigt som bakre bakom \u00f6stra sidan Dnepr g\u00e5r upp i r\u00f6k. MEN det \u00e4r inga direkt br\u00e4nder \u00f6ster om Kherson eller Khakovka, dom \u00e4r l\u00e4ngre norrut.
\n\u2014
\nHar man slagit ut allt av v\u00e4rde bakom Kherson och Khakovka? tar det n\u00e5gra veckor att utpl\u00e5na alla h\u00f6gv\u00e4rdiga m\u00e5l i ett s\u00e5 pass stort geografiskt omr\u00e5de \u00e4r ju livsl\u00e4ngden p\u00e5 kvarvarande ryskt underh\u00e5ll\/bakre f\u00f6rsvinnande kort.
\n\u2014
\nIzyum \u00e4r ju r\u00e4tt m\u00e4rkligt, kan ju bara betyda att Ryssarna f\u00f6rsvagat Izyum-omr\u00e5det p\u00e5 eget initiativ och att Ukraina tar tillf\u00e4llet i flykten? Vi VET att Ryssarna k\u00f6rt ned f\u00f6rband till Kherson och bakom s\u00f6dra fronten d\u00e4rifr\u00e5n vilket \u00e4r perfekt f\u00f6r dels f\u00f6rsvagar man p\u00e5 andra frontavsnitt och sen kommer dom bli inst\u00e4ngda \u2013 flera flugor i den sm\u00e4llen.
\nNu skrev n\u00e5gon ig\u00e5rdagens tr\u00e5d att dom f\u00f6rmodligen g\u00e5r i f\u00f6rsvar vid Oskil \u00f6stra sidan ist\u00e4llet. Det \u00e4r lite tr\u00e5kigt f\u00f6r del i planen (om Ukraina haft kapacitet) borde ha varit att ta sig \u00f6ver floden Oskil innan ryssarna listade ut att dom m\u00e5ste f\u00f6rsvara \u00f6sterut, men man kan inte f\u00e5 allt.
\n\u2014
\nOberoende av det \u2013 ingen direkt uppvisning i styrka att Ryssarna b\u00f6rjar fundera p\u00e5 att \u00f6verge Izyum\u2026
\nN\u00e4sta sm\u00e4ll blir ju n\u00e4r Kherson f\u00f6rsvinner trots att dom k\u00f6rt dit allt p\u00e5 hjul och sen sk\u00e4rs det av vid Melitopol.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:28<\/h3>\n

Jo och sen stavar jag ortsnamnen fel\u2026
\nKolla Zolota Balka i Kherson Oblast (tror jag det \u00e4r).
\nTv\u00e4rs\u00f6ver floden p\u00e5 den \u00f6stra sidan har du dels en liten halv\u00f6 och sen tv\u00e5 flodstr\u00e4ngar som g\u00e5r i S\u00d6 riktning ut fr\u00e5n Dnepr och en bit ned ett samh\u00e4lle som heter Verkhnii Rohachyk.
\nEtt bra f\u00f6rsvar.
\n\u2014
\nKopierar in kartan, f\u00e5r du upp detta?
\nhttps:\/\/earth.google.com\/web\/@47.37219664,34.19813359,61.14768234a,87441.90734133d,35y,359.3849734h,0t,0r<\/a>
\n\u2014
\nKikar man p\u00e5 FIRMS kartan s\u00e5 \u00e4r det ju i detta omr\u00e5de och \u00f6ster d\u00e4rom det gl\u00f6der ryssar just nu.
\nNu \u00e4r ju det h\u00e4r bara en tanke fr\u00e5n min sida som jag v\u00e4drar men det har v\u00e4l varit uppe ett par g\u00e5nger i tr\u00e5den som ett kul alternativ.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:56<\/h3>\n

Jag vill faktiskt h\u00f6ra FN och RK f\u00f6rklara f\u00f6r hela v\u00e4rlden hur dom har garanterat alla Azovstals f\u00e5ngars s\u00e4kerhet de senaste m\u00e5naderna. Man beh\u00f6ver ju inte vara konspiratoriskt lagd f\u00f6r att f\u00f6rst\u00e5 att n\u00e4r kriget \u00e4r slut och f\u00e5ngarna skall utv\u00e4xlas d\u00e5 finns det n\u00e5t dussintal kvar av Azovstal f\u00e5ngarna, resten har torterats ihj\u00e4l \u00f6ver tid.
\nJag undrar ocks\u00e5 varf\u00f6r inte FN och RK h\u00f6jer r\u00f6sten, n\u00e4r en palestinier med kniv blir skjuten i sj\u00e4lvf\u00f6rsvar i n\u00e5n f\u00f6rskola s\u00e5 blir det ju f\u00f6rd\u00f6manden och resolutioner direkt. Hur kan man inte ha hundratals FN resolutioner mot Ryssland etniska rensning h\u00e4r?
\n\u2014
\nDet \u00e4r egentligen bara l\u00e4nderna i det fria v\u00e4st och NATO som har st\u00e4llt upp f\u00f6r Ukraina, alla andra organisationer som skall garantera v\u00e4rldsfreden hoppas ju mest bara p\u00e5 att Ukraina skall ge upp s\u00e5 pl\u00e5gan tar slut. Faktum \u00e4r v\u00e4l att hade inte USA tr\u00e4nat Ukraina sedan 2014 tillsammans med andra l\u00e4nder och sen st\u00e4llt upp med sitt lend-lease s\u00e5 hade Ryssland idag st\u00e5tt vid Ukrainas v\u00e4stra gr\u00e4ns och hotat massa nya l\u00e4nder med d\u00f6d och brand.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:59<\/h2>\n

Man f\u00e5r absolut den sammantagna k\u00e4nslan nu att Ukraina red ut stormen och nu har initiativet. Ryssarna kan ju forts\u00e4tta med allt dom h\u00e5ller p\u00e5 med men det f\u00f6r\u00e4ndrar inte utg\u00e5ngen p\u00e5 kriget, m\u00f6jligen kan dom f\u00f6rl\u00e4nga tidsplanen lite.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:03<\/h2>\n

Enligt pro-ryska sidor s\u00e5 var det Krim-partisaner som sl\u00e4ppte en hemmagjord bomb med dr\u00f6nare i Sevastopol.
\nD\u00e5 st\u00e4mmer det som Ukraina s\u00e4ger att dom inte utf\u00f6rde attacken.
\nMer s\u00e5nt, man f\u00e5r k\u00e4nslan att Krim \u00e4nnu k\u00e4nner att kriget \u00e4r avl\u00e4gset och det \u00e4r dags att dom f\u00e5r b\u00f6rja svettas d\u00e4rnere ocks\u00e5.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:46<\/h3>\n

Om jag \u00e4r med h\u00e4r s\u00e5 \u00e4r alla broar \u00f6ver Dnepr i olika stadier av att vara ofarbara samt att man klippt broarna \u00f6ver Inhulets .
\n\u2014
\nRyssarna har sen b\u00f6rjat med f\u00e4rjor och pontonbroar och ett gl\u00f6dande tungstensregn n\u00e4r det \u00e4r k\u00f6 p\u00e5 den \u00f6stra sidan \u00e4r naturligtvis n\u00e4sta steg \ud83d\ude42
\nSkall vi g\u00e5 igenom en period nu n\u00e4r ryssarna f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker b\u00e5ta \u00f6ver f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkningar som Ukraina sl\u00e5r ut.
\n\u2014
\nSen n\u00e4r allt skall g\u00e5 \u00e5t andra h\u00e5llet, inte en chans att det kommer lyckas att evakuera Kherson. Det kommer bli \u00f6vergiven materiel och soldater som flyter \u00f6ver p\u00e5 det dom har.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:51<\/h3>\n

N\u00e4r NATO st\u00e4ngt in Ryssland med Georgien, Kazakhstan, Azerbadjan (\u00e4r det v\u00e4l) och Ukraina har n\u00e5n specialare s\u00e5 \u00e4r \u00e4nda gr\u00e4nsen som inte \u00e4r NATO mot Kina eller deras intresse-sf\u00e4r.
\nHar ocks\u00e5 funderat p\u00e5 just det d\u00e5 Kina har territoriella krav eller i varje fall intresse av landmasssan norrut och vad skall Putin g\u00f6ra om Kina ockuperar en st\u00f6rre landmassa, g\u00e5 och gn\u00e4lla hos v\u00e4rt?
\n\u2014
\nFaktum \u00e4r att Kina har att v\u00e4lja p\u00e5 att g\u00e5 efter Taiwan i en komplicerad invasion eller mot andra v\u00e4storienterade l\u00e4nder alternativt \u00f6verta land fr\u00e5n ett svagt Ryssland som inte har st\u00f6d hos n\u00e5gon. Det ligger n\u00e4ra till hands tycker jag men Kina kanske ser det som att f\u00f6rsvaga motvikten mot v\u00e4st eller n\u00e5t att anfalla en av de f\u00e5 allierade p\u00e5 andra sidan staketet.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:44 Jag spinner vidare p\u00e5 mitt sena inl\u00e4gg f\u00f6r tv\u00e5 dagar sedan att FIRMS f\u00f6resl\u00e5r galen f\u00f6rbek\u00e4mpning N\u00d6 om Khakovka […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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