{"id":6447,"date":"2022-08-15T10:10:49","date_gmt":"2022-08-15T08:10:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-08-15\/"},"modified":"2022-08-15T10:10:49","modified_gmt":"2022-08-15T08:10:49","slug":"2022-08-15","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-08-15\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-08-15"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

16:28<\/h2>\n

Det h\u00e4r med att dra bort politisk ledning och stridsledning till \u00f6stra sidan Dnepr k\u00e4nns r\u00e4tt ryskt.
\nOm vi k\u00e4nner till detta k\u00e4nner ryss-i-grop ocks\u00e5 till det, det kanske ligger sanning bakom bloggarens uppgifter att ryska soldater f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker k\u00f6pa allt som flyter?
\nVi har ju diskuterat det h\u00e4r r\u00e4tt flitigt med en oorganiserad retr\u00e4tt med allt vad som f\u00f6ljer p\u00e5 det, f\u00e4rgglada badankor l\u00e4ngst fram. Ryska armen ter sig f\u00f6r mig som en organisation d\u00e4r detta absolut kan h\u00e4nda och nu har man n\u00e4stan kvitto p\u00e5 det n\u00e4r alla med stj\u00e4rnor sl\u00e4pptes ombord p\u00e5 f\u00e4rjan till den v\u00e4stra sidan. Inte mycket leda fr\u00e5n fronten d\u00e4r inte \ud83d\ude42
\n\u2014
\nVad vi vet \u00e4r att ryska f\u00f6rband v\u00e4ster om Dnepr inte f\u00e5r underh\u00e5ll och inte kan retirera i god ordning. Det \u00e4r tv\u00e5 ganska starka sk\u00e4l till panik hos ryss-i-grop men denna panik m\u00e5ste s\u00e4ttas ig\u00e5ng av n\u00e5got. Detta n\u00e5got torde ju vara en framst\u00f6t av Ukraina n\u00e5gonstans som skulle sprida denna panik, till exempel Khakovka?
\nDet kan nog r\u00e4cka med det f\u00f6r att skapa k\u00e4nslan av att det \u00e4r slut, n\u00e4r det sprider sig att Ukraina st\u00e5r nere vid Khakovka p\u00e5 Dneprs v\u00e4stra strand.
\nEller s\u00e5 blir det n\u00e5got annat, b\u00e5tar \u00f6ver Dnepr norr om Khakovka f\u00f6r att skapa en k\u00e4nsla av att Ukraina skall ta den \u00f6stra flodstranden av Dnepr (nu blir det ju inte s\u00e5 men kan man f\u00e5 ig\u00e5ng ett rykte\u2026).
\nTror ni man kan uppn\u00e5 samma effekt med ett armageddon av indirekt eld men inte \u00f6ver Kherson, kanske blir sv\u00e5rt?
\n\u2014
\nVad \u00e4r Ryska motdragen, dra tillbaka stridsledningen till \u00f6ster om Dnepr, jo d\u00e5 kan dom ju inte f\u00f6rhindra panik och HIMARS kommer ju hitta dom \u00e4nd\u00e5 i sin nya stabsplats. Dom f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker f\u00e5 fram Pion bandhaubitsar till fronten, l\u00e5ngskjutande som kan st\u00e5 p\u00e5 v\u00e4stra sidan, men dom skall banda fr\u00e5n den senaste spr\u00e4ngda t\u00e5gbron och \u00e4r s\u00e4kert i uselt skick och sen skall dom urlasta \u2013 HIMARS.
\nF\u00f6rst\u00e4rka mer p\u00e5 den v\u00e4stra sidan \u2013 det g\u00e5r nog mot sitt slut nu, dom som \u00e4r d\u00e4r f\u00e5r sk\u00f6ta f\u00f6rsvaret.
\n\u2014
\n\u2013 Man kommer med stor sannolikhet b\u00f6rja g\u00e5 i f\u00f6rsvar p\u00e5 den \u00f6stra sidan av Dnepr nu gissar jag.
\nG\u00e5r man i f\u00f6rsvar \u00f6stra sidan Dnepr s\u00e5 m\u00e5ste man ta dom f\u00f6rbanden fr\u00e5n n\u00e5got f\u00f6r f\u00f6rbanden p\u00e5 den v\u00e4stra sidan kommer ju ingenstans. Detta blir ju antingen s\u00f6dra fronten eller Izyum \u2013 Donbass vilket d\u00e5 f\u00f6rsvagas och \u00f6ppnar f\u00f6r Ukrainska offensiver. En n\u00e4rtida trisslott.
\n\u2014
\nJust nu k\u00e4nns Ryssarna faktiskt helt reaktiva i allt, dom f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker plugga h\u00e5len och samtidigt h\u00e5lla uppe en offensiv i Donbass med hopp om att den skall ge n\u00e5got men det g\u00f6r den ju inte, dom kommer ingenvart och f\u00f6rlusterna \u00e4r h\u00f6ga. Det \u00e4r inte s\u00e5 mycket att Ukraina verkligen har tagit initiativet som att Ryssarna har fullt upp med f\u00f6rsvar \u00f6verallt utom i Donbass, lite sv\u00e5rt att f\u00f6rklara kanske.
\n\u2014
\nDagens art-lista inneh\u00f6ll m\u00e5nga ortsnamn, har inte orkat googla dom men n\u00e5gra s\u00e5 nya ut. Annars trevlig diskussion i tr\u00e5den idag.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:29<\/h3>\n

\u00d6stra sidan f\u00f6r Pion\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:35<\/h3>\n

Ja, personkulten steg honom \u00e5t huvudet totalt.
\nSen beh\u00f6vs det en speciell typ av personlighet att kunna kl\u00e4ttra till toppen i ett land som Ryssland, flera diagnoser och dom man inte var f\u00f6dd med fick man v\u00e4l l\u00e4ra sig i KGB?
\n\u2014
\nJag \u00e4r o\u00e4ndligt fascinerad av att Putin har gjort precis samma resa som Hitler bara det att han begick sina misstag direkt. Det finns s\u00e5 m\u00e5nga ber\u00f6ringspunkter att det \u00e4r sm\u00e5tt obegripligt.
\nJag har ocks\u00e5 f\u00f6rst\u00e5tt komplexiteten med det fria v\u00e4st, att man kompromissar f\u00f6r l\u00e4nge men g\u00e5r man \u00f6ver gr\u00e4nsen d\u00e5 slutar man som Napoleon, Hitler eller Putin.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:10<\/h3>\n

Jo det \u00e4r r\u00e4tt sv\u00e5rt att sp\u00e5 i firms-sumpen just nu \ud83d\ude42
\nDet \u00e4r ju egentligen bara Siversk \u2013 Bakhmut linjen som f\u00e5r art p\u00e5 sig enligt FIRMS, r\u00e4tt lugnt vid \u00f6vriga Ukrainska omr\u00e5den.
\nOch..precis som du skriver s\u00e5 \u00e4r det riktgit livligt i m\u00f6rkaste Donbass och sen ned mot Rostov na Don och \u00f6ster d\u00e4rom.
\nJag satt och zoomade in och ut men blir inte riktigt klok p\u00e5 vad dom kan ha \u00f6ster om Rostov na Don av v\u00e4rde och sen f\u00e5r man nu mitt i sommaren inte f\u00f6rgl\u00f6mma skogsbr\u00e4nder.
\n\u2014
\nMen, g\u00f6r man en stor utzoomning av Ryssland s\u00e5 \u00e4r det helt illr\u00f6tt i m\u00f6rkaste donbass \u2013 Rostov na Don och \u00f6ster d\u00e4rom och inte en r\u00f6d prick n\u00e5gon annanstans (\u00f6verdrift f\u00f6r effekt). Och vi h\u00f6r ingenting\u2026
\nIallafall staden Rostov na Don har ju varit en stor underh\u00e5llshub och det finns m\u00e5nga h\u00f6gv\u00e4rdiga m\u00e5l d\u00e4r. Belgorod \u00e4r man v\u00e4l klar med.
\nMan f\u00e5r v\u00e4l hoppas att Ukraina dunkar p\u00e5 med l\u00e5ngr\u00e4ckviddare eller fj\u00e4rrpatruller \ud83d\ude42
\nNoterbart att Kyiv har exakt 1 r\u00f6d prick\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:11<\/h2>\n

Ju mer man sitter och tittar p\u00e5 det h\u00e4r ju mer funderar man p\u00e5 om det inte \u00e4r Mariupol som \u00e4r Fas-2 h\u00e4r?
\nDet \u00e4r ett helt g\u00e4ng brigader i det omr\u00e5det nu.
\n\u2014
\nSen \u00e4r Ukraina starka i Donbass och norrut. Ryssarna hade ju enligt rykten tryckt in 50% av sina f\u00f6rband vid Kherson\/S\u00f6dra fronten och dom \u00e4r definitivt kring Vasylivka och Tokmak dom som \u00e4r \u00d6ster om Dnepr.
\nKherson-ryssarna \u00e4r ju numera inl\u00e5sta.
\nVolnovakha mot Mariupol och vid Donetsk har inte h\u00f6g densitet p\u00e5 ryska f\u00f6rband.
\n\u2014
\nI brist p\u00e5 annat spekulerar man vidare \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:20<\/h3>\n

\u00d6ster om Dnepr ligger Vasylivka som \u00e4r ett r\u00e4tt potent f\u00f6rsvar och som enligt m\u00e5nga rapporter f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkts h\u00e5rt, f\u00f6rmodligen f\u00f6r att Ryssarna t\u00e4nker likadant, f\u00f6rlorar vi \u00f6stra stranden vore lite pinsamt.
\n\u2014
\nDen andra m\u00f6jligheten \u00e4r ju att glida in \u201demellan\u201d de tv\u00e5 f\u00f6rsvarslinjerna ned mot Tokmak och det h\u00e5ller man v\u00e4l p\u00e5 med men d\u00e4r har Ryssarna ocks\u00e5 f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkt.
\n\u2014
\nTredje m\u00f6jligheten \u00e4r att hoppa p\u00e5 Volnovakha och ned mot Mariupol vilket v\u00e4l \u00e4r halv-\u00f6ppet fortfarande, inte s\u00e5 starkt bef\u00e4st tycker jag man ser?
\n\u2014
\nAlternativ fyra \u2013 v\u00e4lja ett av ovan och sl\u00e4ppa l\u00f6s syndafloden med 777 och HIMARS tills man kan promenera genom de ryska f\u00f6rsvarslinjerna och ta selfies framf\u00f6r brinnande T62. Man lyckades ju ta Tokmachka (ej Tokmak) p\u00e5 det s\u00e4ttet \u2013 jag hittar fortfarande inte den staden.
\n\u2014
\nN\u00e5t l\u00e4r dom v\u00e4l hitta p\u00e5 nu n\u00e4r Fas 1 \u00e4r avklarat att l\u00e5sa in Kherson-ryssarna v\u00e4ster om Dnepr. Det riktigt k\u00e4nns i t\u00e5rna att n\u00e5got st\u00f6rre \u00e4r p\u00e5 g\u00e5ng h\u00e4r \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:38<\/h3>\n

Jag tror precis det, det \u00e4r tr\u00f6gheten i den ryska beslutsfattnings-kedjan som ger Ukraina vinsten.
\nStridsledningen p\u00e5 f\u00e4ltet rapporterar inte upp korrekt, man sminkar grisen och Bunkerdv\u00e4rgen kartkrigar som den v\u00e4rsta Hitler.
\nI hans v\u00e4rld \u00e4r det nog ett bra drag att g\u00e5 mot Odessa om n\u00e5gra m\u00e5nader, b\u00e4st att bygga upp och beh\u00e5lla brohuvudet, och precis som du skriver, inte ett simtag tillbaka.
\nNu kan ju \u00e4ven en f\u00f6rskoleklass se vart\u00e5t det barkar med Kherson s\u00e5 t\u00e4nk n\u00e4r det g\u00e5r riktigt snabbt n\u00e5gonstans, d\u00e5 kommer det landa helt vansinniga order som sl\u00f6sar \u00e4nnu mer med BTG.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

16:28 Det h\u00e4r med att dra bort politisk ledning och stridsledning till \u00f6stra sidan Dnepr k\u00e4nns r\u00e4tt ryskt. 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