{"id":6448,"date":"2022-08-16T07:14:34","date_gmt":"2022-08-16T05:14:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-08-16\/"},"modified":"2022-08-16T07:14:34","modified_gmt":"2022-08-16T05:14:34","slug":"2022-08-16","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-08-16\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-08-16"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:25<\/h2>\n

Nu har vi v\u00e4l ett g\u00e4ng m\u00e5l utanf\u00f6r HIMARS-avst\u00e5nd, det g\u00e5r fort i ukrainsk hockey och man minns ju bara tolvtaggarna men \u00e4r r\u00e4tt s\u00e4ker p\u00e5 att det varit fler senaste veckan.
\n\u2014
\nEftersom alla flygbaser v\u00e4rda namnet bakom s\u00f6dra fronten himarsats s\u00e5 m\u00e5nga g\u00e5nger att den den ryska stridsledningen m\u00e5ste kvida fortfarande bara av att t\u00e4nka p\u00e5 det s\u00e5 har v\u00e4l allt flyttats ned till Krim. Hade man flyttat allt till Donbass eller \u00f6ster om Mariupol hade det dels inte varit utanf\u00f6r himars och dels varit f\u00f6r l\u00e5ng k\u00f6rtid till Kherson.
\n\u2014
\nUkraina har helt sonika (precis som vi alla v\u00e4l gissade \ud83d\ude42 ) v\u00e4ntat p\u00e5 att ryssarna skulle flytta allt flyg, armeflyg och underh\u00e5ll till flygbaserna p\u00e5 Krim innan man klipper till. Lite som n\u00e4r man v\u00e4ntade in stora stabsm\u00f6ten i st\u00f6rre staber innan dom fick sina 155mm och senare himars.
\n\u2014
\nNu fick vi ju ocks\u00e5 reda p\u00e5 att Ryssarna b\u00f6rjar plocka ut SU24 och n\u00e5gra \u00e4ldre Mi modeller ur f\u00f6rr\u00e5d s\u00e5 inte heller flyget har man o\u00e4ndligt att ta av och gl\u00f6dande tungstensregn varje natt svider uppenbarligen f\u00f6r alla vapengrenar nu.
\n\u2014
\nFaktum \u00e4r att Ryssarna nu har har \u00e4ldre f\u00f6rr\u00e5dsst\u00e4llt artilleri, T62, \u00e4ldre flyg, \u00e4ldre hkp och infanteriet \u00e4r till inte oansenlig del 1st Army fr\u00e5n Donbass (ukrainare som tvingas strida mot Ukrainare som bloggaren ofta p\u00e5pekar\u2026), gamla f\u00e4ngelsekunder och \u00e5rets v\u00e4rnpliktiga. \u201dThe second largest army in the world\u201d b\u00f6rjar eka r\u00e4tt ih\u00e5ligt \ud83d\ude42
\nDetta samtidigt som Ukraina f\u00e5r v\u00e4stlig materiel mer \u00e4n dom orkar f\u00f6rbandss\u00e4tta och det \u00e4r st\u00e4ndiga mutningsf\u00f6rs\u00f6k f\u00f6r en plats i ett stridande f\u00f6rband innan kriget tagit slut av veteranerna fr\u00e5n 8 \u00e5rs krig i Donbass.
\nSnudd p\u00e5 krigarkultur.
\n\u2014
\nDet enda som f\u00f6rv\u00e5nar mig lite \u00e4r att Ukraina inte kn\u00e4ppt bort Ryssarna fr\u00e5n Ukraina med tummen och pekfingret men min take p\u00e5 det \u00e4r att f\u00f6r att vinna \u00e4ven rond 3 s\u00e5 m\u00e5ste Ukraina ha en intakt arme att bef\u00e4sta sin enormt l\u00e5nga gr\u00e4ns med. \u00c4r Ryssarna ute men den ukrainska armen k\u00f6rd i botten, d\u00e5 kommer Putin bara tillbaka om n\u00e5t \u00e5r eller kan ha partisankrig p\u00e5 h\u00f6g niv\u00e5 tills han g\u00e5r in igen, en st\u00e4ndig \u00f6ppen konflikt. Dom m\u00e5ste ut med f\u00f6tterna f\u00f6re och sen m\u00e5ste hela gr\u00e4nsen bef\u00e4stas av man\u00f6verbrigader som uppr\u00e4tth\u00e5ller en 30km demilitariserad zon med himars inne p\u00e5 ryskt omr\u00e5de med v\u00e5ld \u2013 d\u00e5 \u00e4r kriget slut. Och f\u00f6r det beh\u00f6ver man en stor arme.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:28<\/h3>\n

Jag f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntar mig en intensiv fredskampanj under h\u00f6sten med syfte att frysa konflikten.
\nDet kommer bli k\u00e4nda och n\u00e5gra nya ansikten och man kommer inte spara p\u00e5 n\u00e5got.
\nDet enda som kommer ut av den \u00e4r att n\u00e5gra dugliga journalister loggar allt och har en komplett karta over vilka som \u00e4gnar sig \u00e5t rysk psyops och sen kanske vi f\u00e5r lite lugn och ro fram\u00f6ver n\u00e4r imperiet fallit och alla subversiva krafter \u00e4r mer eller mindre k\u00e4nda.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:36<\/h3>\n

Fr\u00e5gar du mig finns v\u00e4l ATACMS redan i Ukraina men inte officiellt v\u00e4l?
\nSen har du Toschka U och dom h\u00e4r nya vi s\u00e5g h\u00e4romdagen men dom skulle det finnas tv\u00e5 av.
\nDock s\u00e5 \u00e4r det ett rej\u00e4lt upptick och Toscka U kan tydligen skjutas ned av ryskt luftv\u00e4rn men inte HIMARS ammunitionen.
\n\u2014
\nMin r\u00e4tt luddiga po\u00e4ng var nog \u2013 f\u00f6rst 777, sen himars och nu ATACMS f\u00f6r det \u00e4r samma exponetiella kurva \u00f6ver utslagna ryska h\u00f6gv\u00e4rdiga m\u00e5l p\u00e5 ett nytt avst\u00e5nd.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:48<\/h3>\n

Vi har nu sett en mycket effektiv f\u00f6rbek\u00e4mpning spela ut. Man f\u00e5r v\u00e4l gissa att 155mm lobbar in m\u00e5lstyrd ammunition \u00f6ver ryskt f\u00f6rsvar i Kherson och S\u00f6dra fronten as we speak 24\/7.
\n\u2014
\nVi har ocks\u00e5 sett positioneringsstrider\/spaningsstrider som ibland utvecklat sig till mer och kanske n\u00e5got mer, r\u00e4tt mycket fog of war.
\n\u2014
\nVad vi inte har sett \u00e4r en fjullfj\u00e4drad offensiv s\u00e5 som vi hoppas f\u00e5 se den men Ukraina b\u00f6kar v\u00e4l p\u00e5 och tar samh\u00e4lle efter samh\u00e4lle.
\n\u2014
\nJag t\u00e4nker lite s\u00e5 h\u00e4r \ud83d\ude42
\nVem trodde f\u00f6r tv\u00e5 m\u00e5nader sedan att det ryska underh\u00e5llet skulle g\u00e5 upp i r\u00f6k?
\nVem trodde att alla broarna \u00f6ver Kherson skulle klippas (jag, jag, jag, Fas1\u2026)
\nVem trodde att vi skulle f\u00e5 se T62.
\n\u2014
\nEftersom Ukraina bara b\u00f6rjat gasa upp s\u00e5 kan vi vara absolut 100% s\u00e4kra p\u00e5 att dom kommer \u00f6verraska igen r\u00e4tt snart\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:25 Nu har vi v\u00e4l ett g\u00e4ng m\u00e5l utanf\u00f6r HIMARS-avst\u00e5nd, det g\u00e5r fort i ukrainsk hockey och man minns ju […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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