{"id":6461,"date":"2022-08-25T10:10:21","date_gmt":"2022-08-25T08:10:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-08-25\/"},"modified":"2022-08-25T10:10:21","modified_gmt":"2022-08-25T08:10:21","slug":"2022-08-25","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-08-25\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-08-25"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

13:12<\/h2>\n

Ig\u00e5r blev man ju riktigt upp\u00e5t av att l\u00e4sa HOMSANs inl\u00e4gg, vilket schackdrag att sno Mariupol framf\u00f6r n\u00e4san p\u00e5 Ryssarna. Sen \u00e4r det v\u00e4l kl\u00e4dsamt att pudla p\u00e5 Warrior, har snabbl\u00e4st den fel, tack vem det nu var som r\u00e4ttade, Warrior \u00e4r galet bra.<\/p>\n

Izyum, Donbass och Volnovakha verkar vara svaga punkter i ryssarnas r\u00e4tt svaga f\u00f6rsvar. Dom har verkligen tok-f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkt Kherson och v\u00e4stra delen av s\u00f6dra fronten p\u00e5 bekostnad av allt annat. Kritiska massan har r\u00e4tt l\u00e4nge inte varit till deras f\u00f6rdel s\u00e5 f\u00f6r att f\u00e5 lokalt \u00f6vertag m\u00e5ste dom bli svaga n\u00e5gon annanstans.<\/p>\n

Vid Volnovakha finns det n\u00e5gra ensamma ryska BTG tillsammans med 1st Army och i Donbass \u00e4r det v\u00e4ldigt mycket 1st Army. Just 1st Army h\u00f6r vi ju ofta om sviktande moral hos och om dom l\u00e4mnas ensamma p\u00e5 hela frontavsnitt kanske dom b\u00f6rjar fundera kring liv och d\u00f6d. Tik-tok tjetjenerna som dubblar som politiska kommissarier kan det ju inte finnas speciellt mycket av och ingen gillar v\u00e4l dom?<\/p>\n

Nu b\u00f6rjar FIRMS gasa upp igen och precis som HOMSAN skrev ig\u00e5r s\u00e5 \u00e4r det riktigt livligt vid Volnovakha, Mariupol och d\u00e4remellan. Det trycker p\u00e5 en kil ned och sen runt Mariupol.
\nEftersom det inte \u201dh\u00e4nder\u201d n\u00e5got s\u00e5 b\u00f6rjar ju det vanliga \u2013 Ukraina har inte kapaciteten dyka upp igen.
\nRyssarna skall ha 175 000 man i Ukraina nu enligt senaste bed\u00f6mningen jag l\u00e4ste. En inte oansenlig del av dom \u00e4r nu DPR och LPR samt artilleri och bakre.<\/p>\n

Ukraina startade v\u00e4l kriget med ungef\u00e4r samma numer\u00e4r som Ryssland av dugliga f\u00f6rband men beh\u00f6vde h\u00e5lla en enorm front. Tittar man p\u00e5 f\u00f6rbandskartorna s\u00e5 har dom runt +30 brigader vid frontlinjerna nu och d\u00e4rtill NG brigaderna som jag gissar \u00e4r man\u00f6verbrigader nu och dugliga territorial f\u00f6rband och Volunteer batalions.
\nDet \u00e4r inte orimligt att tro att Ukraina kan st\u00e4lla upp kompetenta man\u00f6verf\u00f6rband p\u00e5 en bit under 300 000 man nu och d\u00e4rtill en r\u00e4tt stor m\u00e4ngd SOF som g\u00f6r livet surt f\u00f6r ryssar p\u00e5 rotation i bakre, s\u00f6mn \u00e4r numera en lyx som ofta st\u00f6rs av gl\u00f6dande tungstensregn eller ettriga eld\u00f6verfall och har man otur blir man v\u00e4ckt av en ukrainsk gev\u00e4rspipa som knackar en p\u00e5 hj\u00e4lmen, bildbevis finnes.<\/p>\n

Kharkovfronten \u00e4r bara Territorial och NG s\u00e5 n\u00e4r som p\u00e5 en mekbrigad till exempel och den linjen har ju h\u00e5llit. Linjen Siversk \u2013 Bakhmut \u00e4r \u00f6verv\u00e4gande territorial och volunteers med n\u00e5gra bataljoner regulj\u00e4ra som f\u00f6rst\u00e4rker upp \u2013 den h\u00e5ller ocks\u00e5.
\nV\u00e4stra delen av s\u00f6dra fronten har man som jag tolkar det ett f\u00f6rsvar som skall h\u00e5lla f\u00f6r anfall, tv\u00e5 brigader och volunteers.
\nSen har man poolat ihop dom tunga elefanterna vid Izyum, Volnovakha\/Donetsk och Kherson. Framf\u00f6rallt Izyum \u00e4r ju p\u00e5 god v\u00e4g att tillfalla Ukraina, det st\u00e5r ett g\u00e4ng h\u00e4ngiga ryssar emellan som nerv\u00f6st stressr\u00f6ker sina pirat-Marlboro och sneglar p\u00e5 inkommande 155mm undrandes om det \u00e4r deras tur nu.<\/p>\n

Dom ryska anfallen just nu \u00e4r lite som den d\u00e4r scenen i Vinterkriget n\u00e4r skyttekompaniet skall ta kyrk-kullen minuterna innan Ryssarna s\u00e4tter ig\u00e5ng sitt anfall, eller det har k\u00e4nts s\u00e5 ett tag nu.
\nNu \u00e4r ju ribban skyh\u00f6g hos den andra sidan, att Ryssarna inte kommer n\u00e5nvart \u00e4r blir inte l\u00e4ngre en \u00f6gonbrynsh\u00f6jare, att Izyum \u00e4r p\u00e5 v\u00e4g att falla och att man de-facto har st\u00e4ngt in kanske 20 000 man i Kherson \u00e4r inte heller tillr\u00e4ckligt \u2013 det m\u00e5ste till en stor mekaniserad offensiv g\u00e4rna med hela armen p\u00e5 en given trumpetsignal f\u00f6r att det skall r\u00e4knas.
\n\u00c4r helt \u00f6vertygad om att det kommer n\u00e5got st\u00f6rre r\u00e4tt snart. Dock s\u00e5 blir man ju lite svettig av f\u00f6rbandskartorna och alla ryska f\u00f6rbandstecken men kvaliten \u00e4r betydligt l\u00e4gre nu samt att materielen \u00e4r s\u00e4mre.<\/p>\n

Det finns ett globalt starkt sk\u00e4l att f\u00e5 slut p\u00e5 Bunkerdv\u00e4rgens d\u00f6dsryckningar s\u00e5 snart som m\u00f6jligt f\u00f6r b\u00f6rjar Kina r\u00f6ra p\u00e5 sig \u00e4ndras spelplanen rej\u00e4lt och \u00f6ver tid blir den risken st\u00f6rre.
\nJust nu har Ukraina allt st\u00f6d dom egentligen kan f\u00e5 s\u00e5 det kan bara g\u00e5 utf\u00f6r h\u00e4rifr\u00e5n, tillf\u00e4llet \u00e4r oportunt.
\nNu har jag sv\u00e5rt att tro att detta \u00e4r stridsplanen eller f\u00f6rsta omfallet men om nu Ryssarna k\u00f6r in 20 t\u00e5g med materiel till Krim s\u00e5 \u00e4r ju en kil ned mot Mariupol och en klippt Kertjbro snudd p\u00e5 perfekt.<\/p>\n

D\u00e5 \u00e4r inte bara Khersonryssarna inst\u00e4ngda utan ocks\u00e5 Krim-ryssarna och resten av s\u00f6dra fronten. Det beh\u00f6vs dock ett mycket aktivt Ukrainskt flygvapen och armeflyg samt att artilleriet \u00e4r p\u00e5 alerten f\u00f6r dom kommer f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka sl\u00e5 sig igenom till \u00f6ster om Mariupol. Dock s\u00e5 \u00e4r dom ypperliga m\u00e5l p\u00e5 landsv\u00e4g och linjen Volnovakha \u2013 Mariupol \u00e4r en naturlig f\u00f6rsvarslinje.<\/p>\n

Sen beh\u00f6ver man v\u00e4l inte sitta inne i staden Mariupol f\u00f6r att uppn\u00e5 \u00f6nskat resultat, det r\u00e4cker med att ha det f\u00e5tal V-\u00d6 v\u00e4gar s\u00f6der om Volnivakha under direkt eld f\u00f6r att f\u00e5 en Kuwait highway 2.0<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:01<\/h3>\n

Senaste 15 \u00e5rens upprustning, eller kanske lite l\u00e4ngre, har till stor del varit uppgradering av sovjetmateriel.
\nAv alla h\u00e4ftiga plattformar vi har blivit lovade \u00e4r det ju bara Alligatorn som funnits i tillr\u00e4cklig m\u00e4ngd egentligen, kanske Tigr ocks\u00e5. Resten har det v\u00e4l funnits provexemplar av, typ, om ens det.
\nVisst kan dom v\u00e4l skaka liv i 1500 gamla sovjetstridsvagnar till om dom vill, tar v\u00e4l 5-6 \u00e5r minst.
\nSen skall dom rattas av erfarna f\u00f6rare, skytt och vagnschef och skall dom operera i en enhet, pluton-kompani och batchef. Alla dom \u00e4r det skriande brist p\u00e5 \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:08<\/h3>\n

Jag kopierar ju fr\u00e5n inl\u00e4gget is\u00e5fall och n\u00e4r man f\u00e5r v\u00e4nta lite f\u00f6r l\u00e4nge s\u00e5 blir det en extern texthanterare som jag nyss uppt\u00e4ckt som kallas word, \u00e4r ett f\u00f6retag som heter Microsoft som s\u00e4ljer detta program, helt galet bra.
\nDet som jag \u00e5ker dit p\u00e5 \u00e4r att det \u00e4r f\u00f6r m\u00e5nga ord och jag kan inte lista ut vad det \u00e4r, dom dagar man bryter upp det i stycken tar det ett tag och 15 ompostningar och sen godk\u00e4nns alla och man blev dagens tr\u00e5dspammare och vann \u00f6ver Erik den fjortonde n\u00e4r han k\u00f6r sitt midnattsrace. Man tappar lite sugen ocks\u00e5, \u00e4r lite som n\u00e4r man br\u00e4nner en \u00e4ppelkaka i ugnen som man g\u00e5tt och biggat f\u00f6r familjen hela dagen och s\u00e5 blir det isglasspinne till efterr\u00e4tt, igen\u2026
\nJag har nog t\u00e4nkt b\u00f6rjar bryta upp dom i stycken direkt s\u00e5 kanske det \u00e4r ett som stoppas och man klarar att justera det.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

13:12 Ig\u00e5r blev man ju riktigt upp\u00e5t av att l\u00e4sa HOMSANs inl\u00e4gg, vilket schackdrag att sno Mariupol framf\u00f6r n\u00e4san p\u00e5 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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