{"id":6463,"date":"2022-08-27T10:44:10","date_gmt":"2022-08-27T08:44:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-08-27\/"},"modified":"2022-08-27T10:44:10","modified_gmt":"2022-08-27T08:44:10","slug":"2022-08-27","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-08-27\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-08-27"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:02<\/h2>\n

\u00c5terigen har vi kommit till en punkt d\u00e4r Ryssarna f\u00f6rst\u00e4rker upp med mer \u00e4n vad dom skall ha, det \u00e4r och har varit lite av ett svart h\u00e5l vad Ryssarna kan skaka fram.
\nNu \u00e4r det olika divisioner och olika armeer som har olika dep\u00e5er s\u00e5 att T62 kom till s\u00f6dra fronten betyder inte att alla divisioner har tomt i ladorna.<\/p>\n

En liten kalibrering s\u00e5 var det n\u00e5n typ av offensiv paus efter Lysychansk och man t\u00e4nkte att Ukraina skulle ta initiativet, Ryssarna hade bl\u00f6tt p\u00e5 bra vid sina human wave anfall och vid Kherson hade Ryssarna 6-9 BTG eller liknande n\u00e4r Ukraina drog ig\u00e5ng. I b\u00f6rjan s\u00e5g det r\u00e4tt lovande ut ocks\u00e5.
\nSen hade vi diskussionen om att \u00e5rets v\u00e4rnpliktiga och tr\u00e4ningsbataljonerna skulle mobiliseras, 30 BTG, och att sen var det slut.<\/p>\n

10 000 f\u00e4ngelsekunder har man v\u00e4l ocks\u00e5 tryckt in och tv\u00e5ngsrekryterat som galningar i DPR och LPR.
\n175 000 man var en siffra som cirkulerade f\u00f6r inte s\u00e5 l\u00e4nge sedan som den ryska numer\u00e4r som befann sig i Ukraina.
\nSamtidigt s\u00e5 har vi ju f\u00e5tt till oss att Ukraina har st\u00e4llt sin million man army p\u00e5 krigsfot (hela f\u00f6rsvarsmakten).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:02<\/h3>\n

F\u00f6r n\u00e5n dag sedan var det 20 t\u00e5g med pansar \u00f6ver Kertj bron och innan dess t\u00e5g med Pion bandhaubits. Erik14 postade n\u00e5got om 400 spetsflyg och hkp vid gr\u00e4nserna till Ukraina.
\n-Nu vet vi inte vad som \u00e4r f\u00f6rflyttningar av redan \u2013 inr\u00e4knade \u2013 f\u00f6rband och vad som \u00e4r nytt men idag skall Ryssarna ha ungef\u00e4r 1500 strv i Ukraina och det tillsammans med f\u00f6rlusterna \u00e4r den numer\u00e4r som r\u00e4tt m\u00e5nga bed\u00f6mare bed\u00f6mt att dom kunde f\u00e5 funktionsdugliga, 3500st.
\nMan har v\u00e4l t\u00e4nkt att det skulle bli omodifierade modeller och lite \u00e4ldre men nu \u00e4r det film igen p\u00e5 t\u00e5g med BTR90, T80 osv.<\/p>\n

Vi har n\u00e5tt slutet Augusti och Ukrainska lokala offensiva operationer \u00e4r och har varit p\u00e5g\u00e5ende och Izyum \u00e4r helt klart p\u00e5 v\u00e4g att byta \u00e4gare s\u00e5 Ryssarna har inte numer\u00e4ren att h\u00e5lla alla frontavsnitt \u2013 annars hade dom h\u00e5llit Izyum.
\nD\u00e4remot har dom tryckt in snudd p\u00e5 otroligt med nya BTG vid Khersonfronten och nu i Daily Gregg att dom skall g\u00e5 mot Vuhledar, som v\u00e4l l\u00e5g b\u00e4st till hos mig var Ukraina skulle dra ig\u00e5ng n\u00e5t kul h\u00e4rn\u00e4st.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:03<\/h3>\n

Lyfter man blicken och tittar strategiskt s\u00e5 \u00e4r det r\u00e4tt bra om Ryssarna f\u00f6rsvarar Kherson, S\u00f6dra fronten och Krim p\u00e5 bekostnad av Donetsk och Luhansk Oblasts.
\n-f\u00f6rr eller senare tar Ukraina Mariupol och spr\u00e4nger Kertjbron och sen kan ju kvarvarande f\u00f6rband fundera p\u00e5 hur dom skall ta sig ur den taskiga situationen.<\/p>\n

Det verkar r\u00e4tt klart att Ryssarna har spring i benen f\u00f6r fortsatta offensiva operationer och den d\u00e4r utmattningen som Ukraina skall passa p\u00e5 att utnyttja infinner sig ju aldrig. Om dom k\u00f6r sina BTG till noll och har sv\u00e5rt att fylla upp eller om dom fyller p\u00e5 med skator och materiel vet jag inte. Jag gissar att dom f\u00e5r in mer reserver \u00e4n vad vi leds till att tro. Det var ju tex. rykten om mobiliseringar f\u00f6rut men man f\u00e5r ju aldrig n\u00e5got konkret att g\u00e5 p\u00e5.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r ju inget som hindrar att Ukraina forts\u00e4tter sin lyckade f\u00f6rsvarsstrid, har Ukraina f\u00f6rlorat 15 000 man s\u00e5 blir det v\u00e4l totalt 50 000 i d\u00f6da och s\u00e5rade, en hisnande siffra men leden kan fyllas flera g\u00e5nger om. N\u00e4r det g\u00e4ller materiel b\u00f6r dom ju ocks\u00e5 ha tillr\u00e4ckligt.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:05<\/h2>\n

Nu \u00e4r ju den stora fr\u00e5gan hur mycket Ryssarna kan fylla leden, dom har helt klart tagit st\u00f6rre sm\u00e4llar \u00e4n dom \u00e4r bekv\u00e4ma med men dom genomf\u00f6r ju offensiva operationer, om \u00e4n usla s\u00e5dana, p\u00e5 ett par olika frontavsnitt.<\/p>\n

En avg\u00f6rande pusselbit f\u00f6r offensiv \u00e4r MBT och IFV f\u00f6r Ukraina. Det kan kanske vara s\u00e5 att Ukraina inte \u00e4nnu f\u00e5tt det dom beh\u00f6ver. Man hoppas ju hela tiden att det blir som med artilleriet dom \u00e4r p\u00e5 plats innan vi vet det men det kanske inte \u00e4r s\u00e5?<\/p>\n

Varf\u00f6r detta inte kommit efter sex m\u00e5nader har jag sv\u00e5rt att f\u00f6rst\u00e5, det har ju levererats HIMARS som pulveriserar Ryssarnas bakre as we speak och innan dess dog det generaler i parti och minut.<\/p>\n

Det finns inga sk\u00e4l att f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka sl\u00e5 ryssarna med infanteri utan det beh\u00f6vs pansar. \u00c5tminstone 3 brigader b\u00f6r ha polskt pansar med m\u00f6rkerstridsmedel och man t\u00e4nkte att dom skulle agera murbr\u00e4cka men s\u00e5 har inte skett.
\nVi f\u00e5r verkligen hoppas att Kos har r\u00e4tt och att det blir USA som reder ut detta till sist med Abrams och Bradley och att det finns n\u00e5got kul i sista vapenpaketet fr\u00e5n oss, typ CV90\u2026<\/p>\n

Nu kommer v\u00e4l den ryska offensiven ebba ut ett kort tag igen om inte alltf\u00f6r l\u00e4nge och s\u00e5 forts\u00e4tter vi hoppas p\u00e5 fram\u00e5t f\u00f6r Ukraina men kan det finnas en rimlig plan som inte \u00e4r en offensiv under h\u00f6sten?<\/p>\n

Finns det n\u00e5gon win f\u00f6r Ukraina att forts\u00e4tta f\u00f6ra ett krig \u00f6ver tid, typ att Ryssland dr\u00e4neras permanent p\u00e5 krigf\u00f6rande kapacitet eller att landet helt kollapsar och inte ens kan t\u00e4nka p\u00e5 en rond 3?
\nAtt kasta ut Ryssarna nu (f\u00f6r tidigt) bara skulle leda till en \u00e5teruppbyggnad?
\nJag tror inte det men fr\u00e5gan \u00e4r v\u00e4l v\u00e4rd att lyfta, Ukraina har ju sj\u00e4lva varit n\u00e4stan \u00f6vertydliga med att Ryssen skall ut med f\u00f6tterna f\u00f6re med en sen sommar\/tidig h\u00f6st start.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:24<\/h3>\n

Jag tycker det \u00e4r en m\u00e4rklig prioritering dom g\u00f6r som jag tolkar som bra f\u00f6r Ukraina. Det \u00e4r ingen bred landtunga mellan Vuhledar \u2013 Mariupol och vid Kertj \u00e4r det bara en bro. Att trycka in allt d\u00e4r ger ju tv\u00e5 flaskhalsar som m\u00e5ste f\u00e5 det Ukrainska\/USA stridsledningen att sk\u00e5la i den dyraste av \u00f6lsorter.
\nDet sv\u00e5raste skulle ju alltid vara m\u00f6rkaste Donbass men \u00e4r det bara 1st Army d\u00e4r kan det nog g\u00e5 fort\/fortare.
\nSen har vi omr\u00e5det \u00d6ster om floden Oskil som jag undrar om dom kommer h\u00e5lla ens.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:01<\/h2>\n

15:36 och kamikaze-anfallet av Ryssarna.
\nI skogsbrynet m\u00e5ste det ju minst legat en ukrainskt skyttegrupp?
\n8 man sviktande under NLaw, javelin och pansarskott, AK och minst en ksp.
\nDet d\u00e4r hade ju slutat p\u00e5 samma s\u00e4tt \u00e4ven om dom inte k\u00f6rt rakt p\u00e5 minorna.
\nJa som bloggaren skrev, inget direkt underst\u00f6d, ingen indirekt eld, ingenting.
\nVar det tv\u00e5 stycken som gasade p\u00e5 \u00f6ver f\u00e4ltet borde det ju minst funnits en till som kunnat ge eldunderst\u00f6d?
\nGick direkt in p\u00e5 bookmark, n\u00e4r man inte tror dom kan bli s\u00e4mre s\u00e5 b\u00f6rjar dom k\u00f6ra \u201dsuicide-by-cop\u201d, en hel granat fick dom iv\u00e4g i riktning ukraina innan dom dog.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:09<\/h2>\n

Tror ni att Serbien hade en plan att ocks\u00e5 g\u00e5 in i Kosovo samtidigt som Belarus gick in i Ukraina?
\nDet har ju varit lite r\u00f6relse d\u00e4r och det har ju varit tyst v\u00e4ldigt l\u00e4nge innan dess.
\nSen trodde man ju att Kina skulle hoppa p\u00e5 Taiwan.
\nDet som stoppade alla andra sluga planer var nog att det gick s\u00e5 d\u00e5ligt redan f\u00f6rsta veckan, den d\u00e4r mytiska kolonnen med soppatorsk kablades ju ut \u00f6ver v\u00e4rlden direkt och signalerade allt annat \u00e4n styrka.
\nDessutom s\u00e5 hade nog Serbien, Kina, Belarus och Ungern iallafall f\u00e5tt n\u00e5n typ av \u00f6vergripande tidsplan d\u00e4r Kiev skulle falla tidigt.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12:02 \u00c5terigen har vi kommit till en punkt d\u00e4r Ryssarna f\u00f6rst\u00e4rker upp med mer \u00e4n vad dom skall ha, det 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