{"id":6464,"date":"2022-08-28T10:24:46","date_gmt":"2022-08-28T08:24:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-08-28\/"},"modified":"2022-08-28T10:24:46","modified_gmt":"2022-08-28T08:24:46","slug":"2022-08-28","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-08-28\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-08-28"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:36<\/h2>\n

Erik14 du har ju en n\u00e4rmast unik talang att s\u00e4nka gl\u00e4djem\u00e4taren ett par hack n\u00e4r den skenar, finns nog en karri\u00e4rm\u00f6jlighet d\u00e4r \ud83d\ude42
\nS\u00e5g din post om 3rd Army, den l\u00e5g ju uppe norr om Kharkov och skulle enligt ryktena vara 15 000 kriminella oduglingar stark.<\/p>\n

Den har d\u00e5 transporterats ned till Rostov enligt Kiev Independent som v\u00e4l f\u00e5r anses ok k\u00e4lla och twittergudarna.
\nDen kommer v\u00e4l s\u00e4ttas s\u00e4ttas in vid Vuhledar\/S\u00f6dra fronten och m\u00f6jligen f\u00f6rst\u00e4rka upp Donbass?
\nJag tolkar\/har tolkat senaste veckorna som att ryssarna (har ett helt arbetsliv p\u00e5 engelska s\u00e5 det \u00e4r lite risig svenska) kommer gasa p\u00e5 ett tag till h\u00e4r?<\/p>\n

Helt klart vill man \u00e5stadkomma n\u00e5got vid Kherson och nu vid s\u00f6dra fronten. En tredje st\u00f6rre organiserad offensiv som tog vid innan Apriloffensiven med start Severedonetsk ebbat ut egentligen.
\nRyssarna har v\u00e4l precis som alla andra k\u00e4nt att den lilla landtungan norr om Mariupol var en svaghet och f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker l\u00f6sa det problemet med 3rd Army.
\nNu \u00e4r det ju det \u00e4nd\u00e5 vare sig dom vill eller inte \u2013 HIMARS.<\/p>\n

S\u00e5 samtidigt som alla v\u00e4ntade p\u00e5 en ukrainsk offensiv vid Kherson s\u00e5 har ryssarna g\u00e5tt och dragit f\u00f6rband fr\u00e5n norr om Kharkov, Izyum och norra fronten i st\u00f6rsta allm\u00e4nhet samt f\u00f6rsvagat Donbass.
\nF\u00f6rbandskartorna spretar lite igen avseende ryska BTG, man vet inte riktigt numer\u00e4ren p\u00e5 en ikon l\u00e4ngre. Nu spelar det egentligen mindre roll har vi v\u00e4l enats om men man vill ju av vana kunna st\u00e4lla antal mot varandra.<\/p>\n

Jag hade nog t\u00e4nkt att efter Apriloffensiven skulle det bli en stridspaus fr\u00e5n rysk sida som ukraina kunde utnyttja f\u00f6r att sl\u00e5 mot ett helt frontavsnitt typ Kherson eller S\u00f6dra fronten men ryssarna verkar t\u00e4nka som dom alltid gjort \u2013 gick det inte med v\u00e5ld s\u00e5 \u00f6kar vi direkt m\u00e4taren och ser om det g\u00e5r b\u00e4ttre.
\nVi kan nog vara s\u00e4kra p\u00e5 att Khersonfronten h\u00e5ller f\u00f6r vilka sattyg r\u00f6tt lag \u00e4n hittar p\u00e5 och dom kommer ta obscena f\u00f6rluster vid varje r\u00f6relse. Ukraina har skapat en perfekt killing ground h\u00e4r d\u00e4r artilleri i alla dess former och flyg\/hkp sl\u00e5r mot varje f\u00f6rs\u00f6k till anfall och truppansamlingar.<\/p>\n

Sen har vi fortfarande Fas 1 uppn\u00e5tt \u2013 att f\u00f6rv\u00e4gra Kherson-ryssarna retr\u00e4tt \u00f6ver Dnepr.
\nFas 2 t\u00e4nkte man v\u00e4l skulle bli n\u00e5got kul vid S\u00f6dra fronten, Vuhledar, d\u00e4r ryssarna f\u00f6ref\u00f6ll svaga men dom har t\u00e4nkt samma sak och i korten ligger nu deras offensiv vid s\u00f6dra fronten. Finns ju noll incitament f\u00f6r ukraina att anfalla d\u00e4r och nu utan dom f\u00e5r forts\u00e4tta i f\u00f6rsvar och grilla BTG.<\/p>\n

Vid s\u00f6dra fronten st\u00e5r ukraina i en bra f\u00f6rsvarslinje f\u00f6rutom kanske vid Vuhledar s\u00e5 en taktisk retr\u00e4tt en bit kanske man f\u00e5r r\u00e4kna med, dom b\u00f6r ha byggt en ny f\u00f6rsvarslinje NV om Vuhledar, kanske Novoukrainka \u2013 Bohoyavlenka eller l\u00e4ngre bak. Det \u00e4r ingen optimal f\u00f6rsvarsterr\u00e4ng. Men det \u00e4r framf\u00f6rallt ap-d\u00e5lig terr\u00e4ng att rycka fram i f\u00f6r r\u00f6tt lag och det kommer kosta dom stora h\u00f6gar med kriminella oduglingar i uniform.<\/p>\n

Med det utrett och att ryssarna kommer ta stora f\u00f6rluster vid Kherson och s\u00f6dra fronten under en tid fram\u00f6ver f\u00f6r n\u00e5gra kilometer potatis\u00e5ker s\u00e5 b\u00f6rjar man fundera p\u00e5 vad ukraina kommer hitta p\u00e5 f\u00f6r brist p\u00e5 initativf\u00f6rm\u00e5ga har dom d\u00e5 inte.
\nVi vet v\u00e4l att vid Izyum k\u00f6rs det just nu en rysk version av f\u00f6rdr\u00f6jningsstrid, man f\u00e5r ukrainskt artilleri \u00f6ver sig och d\u00f6r utan att ha f\u00e5tt skott p\u00e5 en enda ukrainare och sen drar man sig tillbaka n\u00e5n kilometer och upprepar tills bataljonen \u00e4r slut. Ukraina har nu f\u00e5tt fotf\u00e4ste i det mytiska skogsomr\u00e5det SV om staden Izyum d\u00e4r hela ryska armeer f\u00f6rsvunnit och jag tror inte dom avser sl\u00e4ppa det denna g\u00e5ngen.<\/p>\n

Det st\u00e5r ocks\u00e5 ett par tunga elefanter s\u00f6der om Izyum och trycker p\u00e5 norrut.
\nDet \u00e4r ett ganska stort geografiskt omr\u00e5de norr om Slovyansk \u2013 Severedonetsk som f\u00f6rmodligen aldrig varit speciellt v\u00e4lbef\u00e4st d\u00e5 Izyum alltid varit det v\u00e4stra ankaret.
\nNu har man dessutom dragit f\u00f6rband d\u00e4rifr\u00e5n ned till s\u00f6der s\u00e5 \u00e4nnu svagare och om man f\u00e5r gissa \u00e4r det BTG som \u00e4r kvar runt Severedonetsk f\u00f6re detta tomma skal som slickar s\u00e5ren.
\nEn viktig observation \u00e4r ju att ryssland inte \u00e4r det minsta r\u00e4dda f\u00f6r att Ukraina eller Polen skall g\u00e5 \u00f6ver gr\u00e4nsen f\u00f6r d\u00e5 hade dom inte k\u00f6rt ned 3rd Army till Rostov. Den var ju garantin f\u00f6r att inget pinsamt skulle h\u00e4nda. Snudd p\u00e5 fusk faktiskt att ryssarna f\u00e5r agera s\u00e5 h\u00e4r\u2026<\/p>\n

Ett game Ukraina har h\u00e4r uppe \u00e4r faktiskt att f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka trycka p\u00e5 \u00f6sterut mellan Kharkov \u2013 Severedonetsk och \u00e5terta allt dom kan upp till gr\u00e4nsen av detta stora omr\u00e5de. Dom har 12-13 man\u00f6verbrigader i detta omr\u00e5de st\u00f6ttat av ett stort antal NG, Territorial och Volunteers s\u00e5 n\u00e5nstans strax under 30 brigader i styrka.
\nDen h\u00e4r har varit uppe i tr\u00e5den f\u00f6rut som ett av alternativen, var v\u00e4l i b\u00f6rjan av Maj n\u00e4r tour-de-777 inleddes som jag utropade i ett anfall av akut positivitet att Ukraina skulle trycka igenom Izyum och g\u00e5 \u00f6sterut i b\u00e4sta irakkriget 2.0 style. Nu verkar ju spelplanen vara aningen b\u00e4ttre f\u00f6r ett s\u00e5nt f\u00f6rs\u00f6k.<\/p>\n

Sen har vi m\u00f6rkaste Donbass, \u00e4r det 1st Army som f\u00e5r sk\u00f6ta grop-bemanningen s\u00e5 kan ju vad som helst h\u00e4nda d\u00e4r. N\u00e5t h\u00e4nder s\u00e4kert f\u00f6r Ukraina har pallat upp ett par bra brigader d\u00e4r.<\/p>\n

I ett lite l\u00e4ngre perspektiv \u2013 jag tror nog alla utom ryssarna f\u00f6rst\u00e5r att n\u00e4r det finns f\u00f6r mycket v\u00e4ster och norr om Kertjbron och Mariupol blir det sv\u00e5rt med underh\u00e5llet och \u00f6ver tid mer och mer ukrainskt flyg, hkp och artilleri i alla dess vackra former.<\/p>\n

Sen kommer det bli en Kherson-effekt d\u00e4r ocks\u00e5, skall alla f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka ta v\u00e4gen \u00f6sterut vid Mariupol kommer det g\u00e5 s\u00e5d\u00e4r och g\u00f6mmer dom sig nere p\u00e5 Krim f\u00e5r dom v\u00e4l g\u00f6ra det, hot noll.
\nDet \u00e4r gudas\u00e4nt att ryssarna har avfolkat m\u00f6rkaste Donbass och norra fronten till f\u00f6rm\u00e5n f\u00f6r Kherson, s\u00f6dra fronten och Krim, n\u00e4stan s\u00e5 dom jobbar f\u00f6r bl\u00e5tt lag h\u00e4r.<\/p>\n

Tidsplan v\u00e5gar man ju inte sp\u00e5 om l\u00e4ngre, vi f\u00e5r gl\u00e4djas \u00e5t de sm\u00e5 framg\u00e5ngarna s\u00e5 l\u00e4nge, tornflygningar, svampmoln, m\u00e5nkratrar och gallring av femtekolonnarna samt inte minst den dagliga lottoraden som allt som oftast livar upp.
\nNu \u00e4r det dags f\u00f6r kyrkan.<\/p>\n

Sen b\u00f6rjar man ju s\u00e5 sm\u00e5tt undra n\u00e4r det \u00e4r dags f\u00f6r MBT och CV90, dom \u00e4r en vital pusselbit h\u00e4r, dom ligger p\u00e5 den kritiska linjen och allt f\u00f6rdr\u00f6js med den tid det tar tills dom kommer.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:37<\/h3>\n

Den gled igenom filtret, en synnerligen bra dag detta.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:49<\/h3>\n

V\u00e4rdegrunden \u00e4r r\u00e4tt sn\u00e4v och g\u00e5r nog inte att applicera p\u00e5 att dom vill f\u00e5 slut p\u00e5 krig \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n

Med det sagt s\u00e5 tycker jag att dessa tv\u00e5 auktoriteter har hamnat s\u00e5 pass fel att dom borde f\u00f6rst\u00e5 det sj\u00e4lva och verkligen supersk\u00e4mmas. Lite som man p\u00e5 en arbetsplatstr\u00e4ff skulle lufta att man tycker att prostiuerade \u00e4r bra, g\u00e4rna unga s\u00e5dana \u2013 denna \u00e5sikt skulle ju aldrig g\u00e5 att backa ifr\u00e5n.<\/p>\n

Fr\u00e5n min sida f\u00e5r dom g\u00e4rna ha \u00e5sikten men dom f\u00e5r ocks\u00e5 ta kritiken f\u00f6r dom har avvikt fr\u00e5n en r\u00e4tt konsekvent linje som den fria v\u00e4rlden s\u00e5 n\u00e4r som p\u00e5 Scholz, Serbien, Kina och Ungern tagit.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:08<\/h2>\n

L\u00e4ser WP artikeln som \u00e4r kanon, en mening st\u00e5r ut, det \u00e4r fanken alltid USA och UK p\u00e5 r\u00e4tt sida historien i allt. Man kan v\u00e4l gissa att det var Tyskland, Italien och Frankrike \ud83d\ude42
\n\u201dEuropean officials had been assuring him they didn\u2019t see the same threat the United States and Britain did. According to Ukraine\u2019s own intelligence assessments, Russia also didn\u2019t have enough forces amassed over the border to capture or occupy a city the size of Kyiv\u201d.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:09<\/h2>\n

Det var ingen n\u00e5dig s\u00e5gning ISW gjorde av 3rd Army \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Ny f\u00f6rst\u00e5r jag vad T80 och BTR90 kom ifr\u00e5n, dom har f\u00e5tt ny(isch) materiel.<\/p>\n

Hov-psykopaten gick inte hela v\u00e4gen dock, 50 \u00e5ringar i BTR90 blir ju bara trafikolyckor och ischias\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:33<\/h3>\n

Den d\u00e4r minns jag \ud83d\ude42
\nN\u00e4r tour-de-777 drog ig\u00e5ng och man b\u00f6rjade scanna firms s\u00e5 hittade vi en st\u00f6rre brand d\u00e4r, uppenbar bakre som stod och sprakade. Efter ett tag hittade Erik14 en notis om att det var en nationalpark och att det var en skogsbrand d\u00e4r.<\/p>\n

Jag \u00e4r ju av den r\u00e4tt konstanta \u00e5sikten att det \u00e4r n\u00e5got som ant\u00e4nder, nu mitt i soliga sommaren l\u00e4ttare, annars under vinter och h\u00f6st s\u00e5 beh\u00f6vs det en rej\u00e4l dos t\u00e4ndv\u00e4tska och det hittar man ju l\u00e4mpligast i ett artilleribatteri eller en dep\u00e5.<\/p>\n

Jag har gissat att den d\u00e4r landtungan \u00e4r ypperlig f\u00f6r artilleri som skjuter mot den Ukrainska framryckningen vid Oleksandrivka.<\/p>\n

Vi fick ocks\u00e5 reda p\u00e5 f\u00f6r ett tag sedan att Ukraina har sin egen version av Navy Seals som k\u00f6rt runt i b\u00e5tar hela kriget och slagit mot m\u00e5l l\u00e4ngs kusten, det har ofta varit sm\u00e5 r\u00f6da prickar precis i strandkanten. Dom hade dessutom haft en permanent bas p\u00e5 den landtungan l\u00e4ngst ut tror jag det var.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:36 Erik14 du har ju en n\u00e4rmast unik talang att s\u00e4nka gl\u00e4djem\u00e4taren ett par hack n\u00e4r den skenar, finns nog […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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