{"id":6705,"date":"2022-09-02T08:42:37","date_gmt":"2022-09-02T06:42:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-09-02\/"},"modified":"2022-09-02T08:42:37","modified_gmt":"2022-09-02T06:42:37","slug":"2022-09-02","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-09-02\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-09-02"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:43<\/h2>\n

Nu \u00e4r ju det som \u00e4r intressant vad som h\u00e4nder p\u00e5 andra frontavsnitt \u00e4n vid Kherson.
\nTill exempel runt Izyum st\u00e5r det totalt ungef\u00e4r 30 ukrainska brigader. R\u00f6tt lag har ju dragit f\u00f6rband d\u00e4rifr\u00e5n ett bra tag nu.<\/p>\n

Uppe vid Kharkov \u00e4r det n\u00e5got p\u00e5 g\u00e5ng och det \u00e4r ju fortfarande mest territorial, volunteers och n\u00e5n man\u00f6verbrigad. Har ryssarna f\u00f6rsvagat \u00e4ven d\u00e4r uppe?<\/p>\n

Jag t\u00e4nker att ett mycket tydligt stridsm\u00e5l f\u00f6r Ukraina \u00e4r att l\u00e4ngs hela den norra fronten, allts\u00e5 all terr\u00e4ng mellan s\u00e4g Kharkiv \u2013 Severedonetsk, f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka ta terr\u00e4ng upp till sin nationsgr\u00e4ns och sedan bef\u00e4sta den.
\nMan kan anta att terr\u00e4ngen mellan polens gr\u00e4ns \u2013 Kharkiv idag \u00e4r v\u00e4l bef\u00e4st och f\u00f6rsvarad av territorial med ok densitet och sen n\u00e5n brandk\u00e5rsstyrka f\u00f6r ett st\u00f6rre frontavsnitt som kommer fr\u00e5n en man\u00f6verbrigad som v\u00e4l roteras till aktiv front med j\u00e4mna mellanrum.<\/p>\n

Jag t\u00e4nker h\u00e4r att Ukraina kommer damma av den gamla Kupiansk- offensiven och sen egentligen trycka p\u00e5 fr\u00e5n alla v\u00e4derstreck mot Izyum och sen f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka haka p\u00e5 och g\u00e5 \u00f6ster om floden Oskil.
\nHela det j\u00e4tteomr\u00e5det togs av Ryssland sedan 24 Februari och \u00e4r sannolikt uselt bef\u00e4st d\u00e5 dom alltid haft Izyum som det v\u00e4stra ankaret.<\/p>\n

N\u00e5r man sin nationsgr\u00e4ns fram till \u00f6ster om (N\u00d6 om) Severedonetsk d\u00e5 har man r\u00e4tt n\u00e4ra till allt underh\u00e5ll som g\u00e5r fr\u00e5n v\u00e4stra Ryssland och ned till m\u00f6rkaste Donbass, Rostov och Krim.
\nEn liten dubbel-fluga, dels tar man tillbaka ett st\u00f6rre omr\u00e5de och bef\u00e4ster n\u00e4r ryssarna \u00e4r svaga och dels f\u00e5r man strupgrepp p\u00e5 underh\u00e5llet s\u00e5 det blir \u00e4nnu sv\u00e5rare f\u00f6r r\u00f6tt lag att f\u00f6rs\u00f6rja horden.<\/p>\n

Vid Kherson \u00e4r det som jag tolkar \u00f6verl\u00e4ge i artilleri fr\u00e5n Ukraina samt snudd p\u00e5 luftherrav\u00e4lde, det uppr\u00e4tth\u00e5lls inte med spetslfyg utan med LV, fr\u00e5nvaro av LV p\u00e5 ryska sidan och riktigt mycket p\u00e5 den ukrainska sidan. Det g\u00f6r att rysk CAS \u00e4r l\u00e5g och ukraina har \u00f6kat sin CAS fr\u00e5n flyg och armeflyg rej\u00e4lt, dom flyger non-stop.<\/p>\n

Vid Kherson \u00e4r det nu de ryska motanfallen som skall spela ut, deras brandk\u00e5rsf\u00f6rband. Har ukraina gjort en framst\u00f6t p\u00e5 ett ov\u00e4ntat st\u00e4lle m\u00e5ste dom upp och banda p\u00e5 v\u00e4g som stora rullande m\u00e5l som bara v\u00e4ntar p\u00e5 att d\u00f6. N\u00e4r dom \u00e4r utslagna \u00e4r det f\u00f6rsvaret i grop som \u00e4r kvar. En l\u00e5ngsamt rullande \u00e5ngv\u00e4lt som \u00f6ver tid kommer rensa bort allt motst\u00e5nd v\u00e4ster om Dnepr. Jag gissar att ukraina har \u00f6vertag i pansar och direkt eld fr\u00e5n strv \u00e4r ypperligt och sen \u00e4r ju ryssarna i alla fall vid Kherson snart, eller nu, l\u00e5ga p\u00e5 pansarskott\/rpg. Enligt n\u00e5gon uppgift har det blivit mindre av dessa l\u00e4ngs hela fronten och man f\u00f6rst\u00e5r ju varf\u00f6r, dom skjuter ju med dom mot precis allt.<\/p>\n

Nu \u00e4r det molnigt i Ukraina ett tag men det man tydligt kan uttyda av FIRMS \u00e4r att det p\u00e5g\u00e5r bek\u00e4mpning av ryss i grop \u00e4nda ned till orten Ukrainska fr\u00e5n Krivoj-Rog offensiven, d\u00e4r har det r\u00f6rt p\u00e5 sig rej\u00e4lt.<\/p>\n

Sen f\u00e5r vi \u00e5terigen ge en tanke till de ukrainska soldater som d\u00f6r i detta nu, ukraina kommer ta stora f\u00f6rluster i den h\u00e4r offensiven MEN det kommer inte bli omv\u00e4nt f\u00f6r dom anfaller inte som en tjuvaktig ryss, dom jobbar sig lugnt och metodiskt fram\u00e5t och l\u00e5ter CAS och artilleri ta livet av ryss i grop. Med det sagt \u00e4r det m\u00e5nga som d\u00f6r nu.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:31<\/h3>\n

R\u00e4tt tr\u00e4ffande beskrivning Erik14, jo dom kommer ju ingenstans, f\u00e5r inget underh\u00e5ll, s\u00e5rade kan inte evakueras.
\nDet \u00e4r s\u00e5ledes ingen direkt br\u00e5dska.<\/p>\n

Jag tror att det vi sett i en f\u00f6rstav\u00e4nda \u00e4r intensiva rekognocerinsg\/positioneringsstrider med tillh\u00f6rande tillplattande av identifierat f\u00f6rsvar. Vi har f\u00f6r r\u00e4tt l\u00e4nge sedan nog slagit fast att det nog inte blir mekaniserad strid s\u00e5 som vi \u00e4r vana att se den utan det blir denna hybrid mellan infanteri\/mek och sen en sjuhelsikes massa f\u00f6rbek\u00e4mpning och CAS. SOF st\u00e4ller v\u00e4l till det ocks\u00e5.<\/p>\n

Nu \u00e4r man ju lite social-media skadad s\u00e5 n\u00e4r det inte blev framryckning till Dnepr f\u00f6rsta dagen b\u00f6rjar alla tr\u00f6ttna och deklarerar att allt misslyckats, R\u00f6pke most notable.
\nKherson \u00c4R f\u00f6rlorat f\u00f6r ryssen p\u00e5 sikt.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:57<\/h3>\n

Vi gissar ju konstant ryssarnas numer\u00e4r men senast var det v\u00e4l 170 000 man stark av kvalificerade bed\u00f6mare?
\nJa, jag tror Ukraina har mer \u00e4n s\u00e5, f\u00f6rmodligen \u00f6ver 300 000 man i man\u00f6verbrigader som fungerar i strid och bef\u00e4lskedja men dom m\u00e5ste ocks\u00e5 skydda gr\u00e4nsen d\u00e4r det inte \u00e4r aktiva strider. Sen finns det fler i mindre kvalitativa f\u00f6rband.
\nI Kherson tror jag dom har numer\u00e4rt och materiellt \u00f6verl\u00e4ge\/\u00f6vertag.
\nVid Siversk \u2013 Bakhmut har dom f\u00f6rsvarat i numer\u00e4rt och materiellt underl\u00e4ge.
\nStr\u00e4ckan jag t\u00e4nkte p\u00e5 var mellan Kharkov \u2013 Slovyansk som omfattar hela Izyumfronten och det \u00e4r r\u00e4tt m\u00e5nga brigader som st\u00e5r d\u00e4r, verkar vara mer 20st \u00e4n 30st men sabba inte en bra story \ud83d\ude42
\nTror dom har numer\u00e4rt och materiellt \u00f6verl\u00e4ge d\u00e4r nu.
\nSex m\u00e5naders strid ger ocks\u00e5 en stridsvana.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12:43 Nu \u00e4r ju det som \u00e4r intressant vad som h\u00e4nder p\u00e5 andra frontavsnitt \u00e4n vid Kherson. Till exempel runt […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6705","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ukraina","category-arkiv01"],"yoast_head":"\n2022-09-02 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-09-02\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2022-09-02 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"12:43 Nu \u00e4r ju det som \u00e4r intressant vad som h\u00e4nder p\u00e5 andra frontavsnitt \u00e4n vid Kherson. 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