{"id":6710,"date":"2022-09-07T09:43:33","date_gmt":"2022-09-07T07:43:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-09-07\/"},"modified":"2022-09-07T09:43:33","modified_gmt":"2022-09-07T07:43:33","slug":"2022-09-07","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-09-07\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-09-07"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:24<\/h2>\n

Vet inte om denna varit uppe men det \u00e4r en p\u00e5g\u00e5ende \u00f6verflygling norr om Izyum fr\u00e5n V till \u00d6 nu efter Barakliia.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/KyleJGlen\/status\/1567428809959383042?s=20&t=gir3Hx2aOVch9Pamd0lSjQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Nu \u00e4r ju retr\u00e4tt \u00f6ver floden vid Borova m\u00f6jlig eller att runda samh\u00e4llet Oskil och springa iv\u00e4g \u00f6sterut men om man f\u00e5r gissa s\u00e5 jobbas det mot en till omfattning av BTG nere vid Izyum.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:21<\/h2>\n

Caution applies, WarMonitor igen men enligt honom har dom dundrat norrut till Semenivka efter att dom intog Balaklyiia.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/WarMonitor3\/status\/1567448364932898816?s=20&t=ha8ZLcun3kuE2ELdlsuBVw<\/a><\/p>\n

D\u00e5 har dom rundat f\u00f6rsvaret vid Malynivka helt och om ni minns Schevchenkove s\u00e5 beh\u00f6ver man ju inte ta l\u00e4ngre \u00f6sterut \u00e4n s\u00e5 f\u00f6r att f\u00f6rv\u00e4gra f\u00f6rbanden vid Izyum att komma norrut.<\/p>\n

Nu \u00e5terst\u00e5r ju alla \u00f6verg\u00e5ngar \u00f6ver floden Oskil men om man f\u00e5r gissa s\u00e5 b\u00f6rjar Ukraina bli r\u00e4tt bra p\u00e5 att sl\u00e5 ut bro nu.<\/p>\n

Sen kan dom ta sig ut genom att g\u00e5 \u00f6sterut genom staden Oskil och det \u00e4r ju h\u00e4r det b\u00f6rjar bli sp\u00e4nnande om Ukraina f\u00e5r framdrivning norrut fr\u00e5n staden Lyman, d\u00e5 \u00e4r den retr\u00e4ttv\u00e4gen ocks\u00e5 st\u00e4ngd.<\/p>\n

Fr\u00e5gan \u00e4r ju om f\u00f6rbanden runt Izyum f\u00f6rst\u00e5r vad som h\u00e4nder h\u00e4r och hinner dra sig ur i tid f\u00f6r det springer ukrainare \u00f6verallt och drar \u00e5t n\u00e4tet just nu.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:34<\/h2>\n

Med den vanliga disclaimern om f\u00f6r stora v\u00e4xlar men vi har ju suttit sen i Mars och v\u00e4ntat p\u00e5 just detta egentligen n\u00e4r den f\u00f6rsta Izyumoffensiven kom ig\u00e5ng med tour-de-777. De tv\u00e5 anfallen vid Kherson var max (positiv) besvikelse n\u00e4r dom stannade men det var ju positioneringsstriderna f\u00f6r att s\u00e4tta scenen f\u00f6r detta.<\/p>\n

Att vi skulle komma hit var ju r\u00e4tt klart eftersom Ukraina dels kunde f\u00f6rsvara sig effektivt och sen bygga upp en offensiv reserv, den kritiska massan var p\u00e5 deras sida och det stod klart mycket tidigt n\u00e4r 6-8 man\u00f6verbrigader aldrig deltog vid aktiva fronter. Vi sa v\u00e4l att n\u00e4r alla brigader \u00e4r vid fronten och Ukraina pressas bak\u00e5t, d\u00e5 \u00e4r det dags att bli negativ (positivt-negativ).<\/p>\n

Nu kallade USA denna senaste offensiv f\u00f6r positioneringsstrider direkt men jag f\u00e5r intrycket att Ukraina gasar p\u00e5 \u201dinnanf\u00f6r\u201d Inhulets och att man d\u00e4r har syftet att sl\u00e5 hela den stridsgruppen i grunden och att man lyckats komma innanf\u00f6r ryssarnas beslutscirkel just nu, vilket kanske inte \u00e4r den st\u00f6rsta utmaningen i det h\u00e4r kriget men \u00e4nd\u00e5 positivt.<\/p>\n

Det kommer bli klurigt vid Kozatske f\u00f6r det \u00e4r en naturlig f\u00f6rsvarsposition och Ryssarna har garanterat 2-3 BTG i ett v\u00e4l f\u00f6rberett f\u00f6rsvar d\u00e4r (nu). Sen kommer retirerande f\u00f6rband k\u00f6ra in i \u201dskydd\u201d (allt \u00e4r relativt) d\u00e4r och omgruppera.
\nF\u00f6rst skall nu ryssarna banda upp ett par BTG till mot Davyidiv Brid och Krivoj Rog h\u00e5llet f\u00f6r en andra runda motanfall men n\u00e4r dom \u00e4r slutk\u00f6rda d\u00e5 \u00e4r det ju bara retirerande f\u00f6rband och ett f\u00f6rsvar nere i Kozatske som \u00e5terst\u00e5r \u201dinnanf\u00f6r\u201d Inhulets. Den n\u00f6ten kn\u00e4cker man v\u00e4l b\u00e4st med ett regn av 155mm m\u00e5ls\u00f6kande ammunition tills dom tappar lusten att kriga eller man kan g\u00e5 igenom deras f\u00f6rsvar. SOF f\u00e5r v\u00e4l h\u00e4rja runt rej\u00e4lt.<\/p>\n

Kherson blir v\u00e4l per definition positionering eftersom man sl\u00e5r en j\u00e4rnring runt staden, drar fram ballistorna och lobbar in pestsmittade lik tills det \u00e4r slut p\u00e5 ett ungef\u00e4r. Staden \u00e4r st\u00f6rre och f\u00f6rsvaret v\u00e4l f\u00f6rberett sedan mycket l\u00e5ng tid tillbaka.<\/p>\n

Bubblaren \u00e4r som alltid om den ryska stridsledningen ger order om retr\u00e4tt eller om paniken sprider sig p\u00e5 allvar men det verkar vara effektivt att h\u00e5lla alla i okunskap och det k\u00e4nns lite ryskt att t\u00e4nka att tv\u00e5 brohuvuden p\u00e5 den v\u00e4stra sidan \u00e4r perfekt f\u00f6r en framtida fantastisk, skinande, och v\u00e5ldsam offensiv mot Odessa av den imperialistiska ryska armen. Sj\u00e4lvbilden har nog inte \u00e4nnu krockat helt med verkligheten men det kommer.<\/p>\n

Nu \u00e4r ju allt detta del i Fas 1 som var att f\u00f6rv\u00e4gra alla f\u00f6rband p\u00e5 den v\u00e4stra sidan Dnepr retr\u00e4tt \u00f6ver floden, man valde ett lite v\u00e5ldsammare alternativ \u00e4n att bara ha broarna under indirekt eld vilket \u00e4r rimligt f\u00f6r h\u00e4r kan man faktiskt uppvisa en st\u00f6rre win som skakar om ryssarna ordentligt. F\u00e5r se om media hakar p\u00e5 nederlagsdoktrinen f\u00f6r ryssarna snart.<\/p>\n

Senaste tv\u00e5 m\u00e5naderna har varit lite som scenen i vinterkriget n\u00e4r kompaniet skall ta kyrkkullen samtidigt som anfallet \u00f6ver sj\u00f6n\/\u00e4lven drar ig\u00e5ng, nu st\u00e4llde sig ryssarna (ukrainarna) just upp.<\/p>\n

Ryssarna forts\u00e4tter ju sina human wave anfall borta vid \u00f6stfronten p\u00e5 n\u00e5gra f\u00e5 st\u00e4llen som sl\u00e5s tillbaka redan innan dom kommit ig\u00e5ng \u2013 om man f\u00e5r gissa s\u00e5 \u00e4r det tr\u00f6ghet i orderkedjan och stupr\u00f6rsorganisation som ligger bakom, d\u00e4r borta \u00e4r man inte fullt medveten om vad som spelar ut p\u00e5 flankerna \u00e4nnu och man har ju order att ta hela Donetsk Oblast innan 15 September. Sm\u00e5tt otroligt faktiskt.<\/p>\n

Kul att man dammat av Izyumoffensiven och att b\u00e5de ta \u00f6verg\u00e5ngen Borova och Kupiansk verkar vara alternativ h\u00e4r, det finns s\u00e4kerligen n\u00e5t tiotal bataljoner i varierande skick runt staden Izyum som man kan ringa in.<\/p>\n

Eftersom allt vi diskuterar h\u00e4nder n\u00e5gon\/n\u00e5gra dagar senare just nu s\u00e5 \u00e4r det v\u00e4l h\u00f6gl\u00e4ge att f\u00f6rv\u00e4nta sig n\u00e5got sp\u00e4nnande vid S\u00f6dra fronten i en snar framtid?
\nTv\u00e5 m\u00f6jligheter idag \u2013 Tokmak och Volnovakha.
\nEn m\u00f6jlighet till om n\u00e5gra veckor \u2013 passera Dnepr med b\u00e5t norr om Khakovka eller pontonbro s\u00f6der om Khakovka med de 5-6 man\u00f6verbrigader man frigjort fr\u00e5n Khakovka-offensiven.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:54<\/h3>\n

Jo i Kharkiv handlar det ju om att trycka tillbaka ryssarna till gr\u00e4nsen f\u00f6rutom kanske vid Izyum, som v\u00e4l egentligen \u00e4r \u201dizyum-offensiven\u201d snarare \u00e4n Kharkiv, d\u00e4r man nog str\u00e4var efter omfattning.<\/p>\n

Jag t\u00e4nkte faktiskt ocks\u00e5 p\u00e5 det efter ig\u00e5r n\u00e4r jag skrivit ett l\u00e5ngt inl\u00e4gg om att vi inte skulle f\u00e5 se mekrstrid och helt pl\u00f6tsligt s\u00e5 sopar dom bort Balakyiia och uppe vid Kharkiv och vilken strid dom anv\u00e4nt d\u00e4r. Du sammanfattade det nog v\u00e4ldigt bra \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:58<\/h3>\n

Det d\u00e4r med Schescvenkove var iofs. n\u00e4r \u00e5krarna var vattensjuka och leriga, kanske inte g\u00e4ller nu n\u00e4r det \u00e4r torrt.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:03<\/h3>\n

Jag har funderat en del p\u00e5 det d\u00e4r och t\u00e4nker nog att man ringar in b\u00e5de Kherson och Kozatske och sen lobbar man in m\u00e5lstyrd 155mm p\u00e5 allt i f\u00f6rsvar n\u00e5n vecka eller tv\u00e5, d\u00e4refter \u00e4r dom nog r\u00e4tt m\u00f6ra, liten yta och alla m\u00e5l \u00e4r k\u00e4nda.<\/p>\n

Det kommer alltid kr\u00e4vas ett tagande av b\u00e5da brohuvudena, Kozatske k\u00f6r man nog \u00f6ver norrifr\u00e5n med pansar men Kherson kanske kr\u00e4ver det b\u00e4sta av infanteri f\u00f6r det \u00e4r f\u00f6r mycket mineringar och annat otyg d\u00e4r?<\/p>\n

Samtidigt f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker man v\u00e4l f\u00e5 till en kapitulation genom olika l\u00f6ften och man ser till att inget kommer \u00f6ver Dnepr.<\/p>\n

Ukraina har bett alla inv\u00e5nare l\u00e4mna redan och det sa dom ju med ett syfte.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:07<\/h2>\n

Vet inte exakt var och vad som h\u00e4nt men en tillf\u00e5ngatagen \u201dsemi\u201d \u00f6verste i strid \u00e4r ju inte sm\u00e5potatis.
\nhttps:\/\/liveuamap.com\/en\/2022\/7-september-russian-army-semicolonel-was-captured-by-ukrainian<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:53<\/h2>\n

St\u00e4mmer denna twittergenerals tweet s\u00e5 har ryssarna fanken problem.
\nDet \u00e4r full fart runt Lyman och dom skulle beh\u00f6va trycka tillbaka Ukraina \u00f6ver floden i det omr\u00e5det men dom k\u00f6r upp f\u00f6rband fr\u00e5n Lyman upp mot Borova.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/WarMonitor3\/status\/1567557134207827968?s=20&t=H1FS-9gMpMqGcpv2rJApiA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:12<\/h2>\n

\u00c4r oerh\u00f6rt besviken p\u00e5 att v\u00e4st inte kunde leverera pansar f\u00f6r denna offensiv. Den kommer naturligtvis r\u00e4tt i tid annars hade Ukraina inte satt ig\u00e5ng den och jag ser offensiv i pickupbilar och p\u00e5 sin h\u00f6jd mekf\u00f6rband men ofta infanteri underst\u00f6tt av sovjetpansar.
\nDom d\u00e4r tv\u00e5 turkiska mj\u00f6lkpaketen till exempel, stora och fyrkantiga, som vi s\u00e5g i filmen h\u00e4romdagen eller alla M113 som dom g\u00e5r i strid i.
\nUkraina har b\u00f6nat och bett men inte f\u00e5tt det dom \u00f6nskat \u2013 vad \u00e4r det som \u00e4r s\u00e5 sv\u00e5rt med MBT????
\nNu d\u00f6r det ju hundratals ukrainare f\u00f6r att dom inte har duglig materiel f\u00f6r en offensiv.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:14<\/h3>\n

Vilken absolut sk1tregering vi har, under 6 m\u00e5nader har man kunnat tr\u00e4na och f\u00f6rbereda leverans av CV90 och Archer och dom hade gjort skillnad. \u00c5terigen, hade dom d\u00e4r turkiska mj\u00f6lkpaketen p\u00e5 hjul varit tv\u00e5 CV90 som \u00f6st in spr\u00e4ng i den d\u00e4r lilla skogsdungen hade ju risken f\u00f6r ukrainska f\u00f6rluster varit n\u00e4ra noll\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:16<\/h4>\n

Det finns en risk att Ukraina tar f\u00f6r stora f\u00f6rluster h\u00e4r och inte klarar att h\u00e5lla uppe momentum, vi har inte sett det \u00e4nnu skall jag vara tydlig med men det \u00e4r med p\u00e5 risklistan. Hamnar vi i det l\u00e4get d\u00e5 blir det r\u00f6rigt igen.
\nDet hade med 100% sannolikhet kunnat undvikas om v\u00e4st levererat allt pansar Ukraina bad om.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:54<\/h2>\n

Om namnet p\u00e5 orten \u00e4r den \u00f6ster om Siversk s\u00e5 v\u00e4lter det allt.
\nUkrainska attackhelikoptrer vid \u00f6straste \u00f6stfronten, vad har ryska imperialistiska flygvapnet f\u00f6r sig \ud83d\ude42
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/Militarylandnet\/status\/1567618206214373382?s=20&t=Cx5LWGg5SAa67N6vGwiQiw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:19<\/h3>\n

D\u00e5 \u00e4r allts\u00e5 det ryska flygvapnet och LV s\u00e5 pass nedmalet att det inte ens kan sl\u00e5 ut ukrainska attackhelikoptrar i \u00f6straste delen av frontlinjerna. Det st\u00e4ller r\u00e4tt mycket p\u00e5 sin spets tycker jag och f\u00f6rklarar v\u00e4l till del varf\u00f6r ukraina k\u00f6r \u00f6ver allt just nu, deras dr\u00f6nare, CAS och armeflyg f\u00e5r ju h\u00e4rja helt ost\u00f6rt och kan ploga framf\u00f6r de framryckande pansarkilarna och med dr\u00f6narna uppt\u00e4cka m\u00e5l till artilleriet.
\nNu gl\u00f6mde jag v\u00e4l bort att HIMARS har r\u00e4ckvidd upp till Moskva\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:24 Vet inte om denna varit uppe men det \u00e4r en p\u00e5g\u00e5ende \u00f6verflygling norr om Izyum fr\u00e5n V till \u00d6 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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