{"id":6747,"date":"2022-09-21T08:08:43","date_gmt":"2022-09-21T06:08:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-09-21\/"},"modified":"2022-09-21T08:08:43","modified_gmt":"2022-09-21T06:08:43","slug":"2022-09-21","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-09-21\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-09-21"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

09:48<\/h2>\n

Den h\u00e4r fr\u00e5n Daily Gregg var intressant, jag kan f\u00f6r lite om Lend Lease och trodde att inget \u00e4r best\u00e4mt men Gregg \u00e4r av annan \u00e5sikt,
\n\u201dEfter 2 veckor b\u00f6rjar lend lease vapnen str\u00f6mma in tillsammans med utbildad personal s\u00e5 de blir s\u00e4nda till de olika fronterna asap\u201d.<\/p>\n

Vad \u00e4r tr\u00e5dens take p\u00e5 detta, kommer det rulla Abrams \u00f6ver gr\u00e4nsen 1 Oktober?
\nDet jag lyckas l\u00e4sa mig till s\u00e5 finns det inga begr\u00e4nsningar.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:49<\/h3>\n

Kommer det Bradley och Abrams s\u00e5 \u00e4r det ju game over innan h\u00f6stlovet.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:55<\/h3>\n

Det som diskuterats f\u00f6r stridsvagn \u00e4r \u2013 3500st innan krigsstart och att det finns (fanns\u2026) runt 1500st i stridande f\u00f6rband.
\nDet tillsammans med f\u00f6rlusterna f\u00f6resl\u00e5r att man t\u00f6mt ut de som gick att f\u00e5 i k\u00f6rbart skick relativt fort.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r olika divisioner\/armeer som har olika dep\u00e5er s\u00e5 samtidigt som vi ser T62 ser vi T90 som kommer in.<\/p>\n

Tydligen s\u00e5 har modernare vagnar plundrats intensivare d\u00e5 det \u00e4r teknik som man f\u00e5r betalt f\u00f6r, \u00e4ldre vagnar inte s\u00e5 mycket. \u00d6ver tid kan s\u00e4kert ryssarna f\u00e5 fram materiel om kriget \u00e4r\/var l\u00e5gintensivt. Ett pl\u00f6tsligt ryck tror jag inte dom klarar av utan det kommer bli allt glesare mellan stridsvagnarna.<\/p>\n

Vid Izyum togs det ju en enorm m\u00e4ngd materiel s\u00e5 akut brist \u00e4r det ju inte heller annat \u00e4n vid Kherson. Det \u00e4r sm\u00e5tt otroligt d\u00e5 Ukraina ju slagit ut hundratals dep\u00e5er.<\/p>\n

Min gissning \u00e4r att det \u00e4r kompetensbrist snarare \u00e4n materielbrist som \u00e4r avg\u00f6rande, spetsen har ju tagit mest stryk d\u00e5 dom lider av omv\u00e4nd Darwinism.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:03<\/h3>\n

Gl\u00f6mde n\u00e4mna att annan i tr\u00e5den f\u00f6rtj\u00e4nstfullt postade Gregg och sedan var inte fr\u00e5gan egentligen Abrams utan att materielen kommer vid starten och med redan utbildad personal. Detta \u00e4r ju n\u00e5got gregg m\u00e5ste ha h\u00f6rt, han pratar ofta om att s\u00e5 fort lend lease startar blir det offensiv p\u00e5 riktigt men jag lyckas inte l\u00e4sa mig till det.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:37<\/h3>\n

Ok tack f\u00f6r alla svar, jag har helt klart l\u00e4st in f\u00f6r mycket i Gregg och svaren \u00e4r ju helt i linje med var man kan l\u00e4sa sig till om Lend Lease p\u00e5 internet.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:49<\/h2>\n

F\u00f6rst har vi ett rykte men det \u00e4r DefMon s\u00e5 postar det, i linje med Argus antaganden att bunkerdv\u00e4rgen bara har en gaspedal. Detta \u00e4r i stort sett det b\u00e4sta som kan h\u00e4nda, det kommer initialt bli en sv\u00e5rhanterad situation p\u00e5 n\u00e5got frontavsnitt i v\u00e4rsta fall men efter detta sista anfall har man t\u00f6mt ut inte bara offensivkapacitet utan ocks\u00e5 reserver och viljan att f\u00f6ra krig. Om Ukraina d\u00e5 g\u00e5r p\u00e5 offensiv kan det g\u00e5 mycket fort.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/DefMon3\/status\/1572301660633927680?s=20&t=qP7coU24LojLc3F-XG45vQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Proryska forum \u00e4r i absolut extas \u2013 nu skall 300 000 mobiliseras och k\u00f6ra \u00f6ver Ukraina. Realistiskt s\u00e5 kommer det komma en str\u00f6m av sk1td\u00e5ligt tr\u00e4nade och d\u00e5ligt utrustade soldater som har en enorm \u00e5ngest \u00f6ver att befinna sig i Ukraina och letar efter varje out. Eftersom Ukraina h\u00e5ller trycket uppe s\u00e4tts dom in i strid direkt \u2013 f\u00f6rlusterna kommer bli enorma och det kommer inte f\u00f6r\u00e4ndra n\u00e5gonting alls.
\nBristen \u00e4r inte soldater eller materiel (bevisligen efter allt dom er\u00f6vrade i Izyum) det \u00e4r kompetensen. Ryska f\u00f6rband har utsatts f\u00f6r omv\u00e4nd Darwinism och spetsen har tagit oproportionerliga f\u00f6rluster sedan krigsstart. <\/p>\n

Vad h\u00e4nder sen \u2013 full mobilisering g\u00e5r ju inte f\u00f6r d\u00e5 blir det revolution, f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker man deeskalera g\u00e5r inte heller \u2013 v\u00e4rlden skrattar ju \u00e5t folkomr\u00f6stningen. Putins magi \u00e4r helt klart \u00f6ver, den tiden d\u00e5 v\u00e4rldens media analyserade hans hot i sina detalj och tolkade de subtila delarna och hade kartor med pilar var det skulle g\u00f6ra mest ont om vi inte gick Putin till m\u00f6tes. Nu \u00e4r det ju en tr\u00f6ghet i Ryssland som f\u00f6rv\u00e5nat s\u00e5 det \u00e4r inte orimligt att det blir rakt in i kaklet h\u00e4r.<\/p>\n

Vi har m\u00e5nga g\u00e5nger diskuterat bubblarna och \u00e4r v\u00e4l egentligen ense kring att det f\u00f6rmodligen inte kommer en revolution, full retr\u00e4tt tillbaka till Ryssland eller en h\u00e4ngd Putin utan att Ukraina f\u00e5r ta tillbaka frontavsnitt efter frontavsnitt tills det blir oh\u00e5llbart och dom retirerar.
\nSchackdraget \u00e4r ju att n\u00e5 Mariupol eller Melitopol eller n\u00e5got i n\u00e4rheten och kontrollera V\u00d6 v\u00e4g l\u00e4ngs kusten, exakt var man beh\u00f6ver st\u00e5 \u00e4r ju lite \u00f6ppet, finns m\u00e5nga bra omr\u00e5den, men syftet \u00e4r att f\u00f6rv\u00e4gra f\u00f6rbanden v\u00e4ster d\u00e4rom att ta sig \u00f6sterut, bara ned\u00e5t Krim.<\/p>\n

Sv\u00e4ngd\u00f6rren ned mot Luhansk \u00e4r ocks\u00e5 sp\u00e4nnande d\u00e5 det kan resultera i total kollaps av LPR eller att dom v\u00e4nder sig mot ryssarna med lite tur.
\nOmr\u00e5det norr om Lunansk \u00e4r ju bara en tidsfr\u00e5ga.
\nD\u00e4refter har man delar kvar att r\u00f6ja upp och det g\u00e5r antingen fort eller l\u00e5ngsamt men d\u00e5 \u00e4r en stor del av Ukraina fredat och man kan n\u00e4stan p\u00e5b\u00f6rja \u00e5teruppbyggnaden parallellt med att man skjuter av de sista ryssarna.<\/p>\n

Har tittat p\u00e5 v\u00e4dret och det beh\u00f6ver ju inte bli full gyttja nu under h\u00f6sten faktiskt, regnar det inte kraftigt kan det ju g\u00e5 \u00f6ver i minusgrader direkt, just nu verkade det bli ok minst tv\u00e5 veckor till vilket betyder farbar terr\u00e4ng. Nu har ju Ukraina ocks\u00e5 de b\u00e4sta metereologerna som ger dom r\u00e5d och har v\u00e4l en r\u00e4tt bra bild av vad som komma skall, s\u00e5 god som den kan bli.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:00<\/h2>\n

Sen h\u00e5ller ju ryssarna p\u00e5 och tillverkar en flugf\u00e4lla alldeles sj\u00e4lvmant.
\nDom \u00e4r v\u00e4l inte helt dumma som l\u00e4gger retr\u00e4ttv\u00e4gen \u00f6ver dammen vid Khakovka s\u00e5 ukraina inte kan himarsa bort den.
\nMen tillfart och utfart kommer ju ligga under konstant luftbrisad och himarsbeskjutning s\u00e5 de som lyckas ta sig upp p\u00e5 bron ryker i den bortre \u00e4nden.<\/p>\n

Vi har redan sett bilder p\u00e5 rader med utslagna fordon vid f\u00e4rjel\u00e4gren \u00f6ver Dnepr.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:55<\/h2>\n

H\u00e4r har vi en prorysk sida som hakar p\u00e5 en amerikansk konservativ publikation.
\nJag f\u00f6rst\u00e5r att ryssarna f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker allt f\u00f6r att f\u00e5 beh\u00e5lla Krim men logiken hos de konservativa haltar bet\u00e4nkligt h\u00e4r.
\nK\u00e4nns som eskalering \u00e4r max redan och fr\u00e5ga inv\u00e5narna i Mariupol, dom som eventuellt lever, om dom \u00e4r r\u00e4dda f\u00f6r all-out-war. M\u00e5nga av de konservativa i USA har hamnat v\u00e4ldigt fel h\u00e4r och dom har haft 6 m\u00e5nader p\u00e5 sig att korrigera, dom har ju sett samma \u00f6vergrepp som alla oss andra. <\/p>\n

\u201dThe United States urged Zelensky to leave Crimea alone. According to the authors of The American Conservative, Ukraine\u2019s attempts to return the peninsula will lead to a greater escalation.<\/p>\n

\u201cWith the available forces, it will not be easy for Kyiv to recapture even the Donbass. Pursuing Crimea would be a much more difficult task, a potential jump into all-out war,\u201d the article says.<\/p>\n

According to the authors, Washington does not want to give Ukraine the opportunity to risk regional stability and peace by correcting past historical mistakes.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:58<\/h2>\n

Igen prorysk sida, nu n\u00e4r alla bloggarna blev helt till sig \u00f6ver mobiliseringen men det kom protester s\u00e5 b\u00f6rjar l\u00f6gnerna regna in. Skall dom lyckas skaka fram 300 000 man ur nedan mycket grunda pool f\u00e5r dom n\u00e4stan trolla med kn\u00e4na.
\nSj\u00e4lvklart kommer det ju sluta med massa killar under 25 som aldrig h\u00e5llit i en AK som st\u00e5r p\u00e5 ett f\u00e4lt och v\u00e4ntar p\u00e5 visselpipan och fram\u00e5t, eller den ryska motsvarigheten till den, att sl\u00e5 tre g\u00e5nger med en sked p\u00e5 en liggande samovar.<\/p>\n

\u201dPartial mobilization will affect \u201cthose who have served, with combat experience, who have a popular military specialty,\u201d said State Duma Chairman Vyacheslav Volodin.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt will not affect 99% of the mobilization resource: those who have not served, who have no military experience, who study at universities, etc.,\u201d he explained.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:00<\/h3>\n

Jag tycker dom skall rekrytera ur \u2013 milbloggarna, polisen, Omon, Rosgvardia och f\u00e4ngelsevakterna men f\u00f6rst\u00e5r ju att alla dom utom bloggarna beh\u00f6vs f\u00f6r att f\u00f6rtrycka medborgarna. Vore kul om dom skickade all personal fr\u00e5n rekryteringskontoren ocks\u00e5.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:06<\/h2>\n

En reflektion att Azovstalf\u00f6rsvararna ser ut att vara i mycket s\u00e4mre skick efter n\u00e5gra m\u00e5naders f\u00e5ngenskap \u00e4n efter att ha suttit m\u00e5nader i en bunker som besk\u00f6ts med allt. Ett antal p\u00e5 filmen haltade.
\nDet h\u00e4r borde ju FN, Amnesty, RK och alla dom d\u00e4r andra som garanterade f\u00f6rsvararnas s\u00e4kerhet ta tag i nu, dels det d\u00e4r med garantin men ocks\u00e5 de flagranta krigsbrotten i behandlingen av f\u00e5ngar.<\/p>\n

Sen \u00e4r jag faktiskt r\u00e4tt f\u00f6rv\u00e5nad att hundratals frigavs, nu blir det kanske lite konspiratoriskt men jag tror det ligger n\u00e5got annat bakom \u00e4n att ryssarna bara fick feeling och frigav dom. Ukraina kanske har f\u00e5tt ett b\u00e4ttre f\u00f6rhandlingsl\u00e4ge h\u00e4r?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

09:48 Den h\u00e4r fr\u00e5n Daily Gregg var intressant, jag kan f\u00f6r lite om Lend Lease och trodde att inget \u00e4r […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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