{"id":6841,"date":"2022-10-24T09:57:06","date_gmt":"2022-10-24T07:57:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-10-24-2\/"},"modified":"2022-10-24T09:57:06","modified_gmt":"2022-10-24T07:57:06","slug":"2022-10-24-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-10-24-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-10-24"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:18 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Nu har ju Shoigu ringt runt till sina dito i v\u00e4st och f\u00f6rklarat att Ukraina kan komma att sl\u00e4ppa en smutsig bomb och skylla p\u00e5 Ryssland. Detta eftersom Ukraina inte har lagliga k\u00e4rnvapen s\u00e5 ett taktiskt k\u00e4rnvapen hade blivit lite sv\u00e5rt att f\u00f6rklara. Ryssarna har ocks\u00e5 signalerat evakuering av Kherson-regionen v\u00e4ster om Dnepr s\u00e5 ett potentiellt m\u00e5l \u00e4r v\u00e4l det omr\u00e5det?<\/p>\n

Detta samtidigt som hot om offensiv ned fr\u00e5n Belarus \u00e4r tillr\u00e4ckligt h\u00f6gt f\u00f6r Polen att h\u00e5lla stora milit\u00e4r\u00f6vningar mot Belarus gr\u00e4ns och nere i s\u00f6der \u00e4r 101st Airborne nu i Rum\u00e4nien.
\nDenna eskalering har allts\u00e5 skett helt utan att v\u00e4st har levererat dessa offensiva vapen som skulle eskalera konflikten\/kriget.<\/p>\n

Ukraina som de taktiker dom \u00e4r har s\u00e5ledes refererat hotet till FNs s\u00e4kerhetsr\u00e5d s\u00e5som det st\u00e5r i punkt 4 i Budapestavtalet (som man sprang in och l\u00e4ste efter att Erik14 postade nyheten).<\/p>\n

Ukraina kan inte f\u00f6rlora kriget men vi st\u00e5r nog p\u00e5 gr\u00e4nsen till ett l\u00e5ngt\/l\u00e4ngre krig h\u00e4r beroende p\u00e5 vad v\u00e4st g\u00f6r, bollen ligger hos oss.<\/p>\n

Kherson \u00e4r en win in the making men ut\u00f6ver det beh\u00f6ver Ukraina stycka upp ockuperade omr\u00e5den, en kil ned mot Azov, Severedonetsk och b\u00f6rja sl\u00e5 p\u00e5 djupet av ryssarnas underh\u00e5ll \u2013 d\u00e5 b\u00f6rjar det bli k\u00e4nsligt f\u00f6r ryssarna.
\nJust nu bef\u00e4ster ryska f\u00f6rband Dneprs v\u00e4nstra strand (\u00f6stra sidan) men pro-ryska sidor \u00e4r inte i uppl\u00f6sning \u00f6ver Kherson (\u00e4nnu) som dom var \u00f6ver Izyum. Nu \u00e4r det Opsec och vi vet inte riktigt vad som p\u00e5g\u00e5r i Kherson men vi kan nog sl\u00e5 fast att \u00f6ster om Inhulets \u00e4r p\u00e5 v\u00e4g att \u00f6verges, det kan t\u00e4nkas att man f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker beh\u00e5lla ett brohuvud i Kozatzke om man inte v\u00e4ljer att \u00f6verge hela omr\u00e5det men att det blir LPR\/DPR f\u00f6rband.<\/p>\n

Hur det ser ut vid staden Kherson vete fanken, jag t\u00e4nker h\u00e4r att f\u00f6rsvaret \u00e4r sv\u00e5rt att komma \u00e5t s\u00e5 om ryssarna vill skulle dom kunna forts\u00e4tta h\u00e5lla ringen staden Kherson, k\u00f6ra sina f\u00e4rjor och ha inv\u00e5narna som gisslan?
\nNu kanske dom inte vill det och retirerar men det jag l\u00e4ser kommer inte \u00f6verens, vissa skriver att ryssarna flyr, andra att dom f\u00f6rst\u00e4rker s\u00e5 f\u00f6r staden Kherson \u00e4r det v\u00e4l lite tidigt att \u00f6ppna en \u00f6l t\u00e4nker jag.<\/p>\n

Fl\u00f6g f\u00f6rbi att man st\u00e4ngt av alla trafikkameror i Belarus och att man sist gjorde det innan 24 Februari. Det \u00e4r mycket bra att Polen har sina milit\u00e4r\u00f6vningar upp mot Belarus gr\u00e4ns f\u00f6r tr\u00f6skeln blir h\u00f6gre f\u00f6r Lukas om han skulle f\u00e5 feeling.<\/p>\n

Sammantaget ser jag en r\u00e4tt stor eskalering fr\u00e5n Rysslands sida n\u00e4r v\u00e4st fortfarande anstr\u00e4nger sig f\u00f6r att inte provocera.<\/p>\n

Sen kan nog energivapnet b\u00f6rja bita \u00e4nd\u00e5 f\u00f6r dagens elpriser \u00e4r om\u00f6jliga att betala i vissa l\u00e4nder i Europa, Moldaverna \u00e4r ute och protesterar igen och i varje land med lite oro \u00e4r ju ryska-dikaturen framme och h\u00e4ller bensin p\u00e5 elden. N\u00e4r de rullande elavbrotten sveper in \u00f6ver EU i Januari och rysk psyops varvar upp att det \u00e4r v\u00e5ra ledares fel som har stoppat gasen av rend illvilja och v\u00e4ver in lite av de vanliga punkterna som triggar folk, d\u00e5 kan det nog bli livligt i vissa l\u00e4nder?<\/p>\n

Jag f\u00f6rst\u00e5r att v\u00e4st helst vill att Ukraina bara skall vinna och vissa vill att dom skall f\u00f6rlora men att alla helst vill att problemet bara skall f\u00f6rsvinna. Nu g\u00f6r det tyv\u00e4rr inte det f\u00f6r tr\u00f6gheten i den ryska diktaturen \u00e4r sm\u00e5tt otrolig. Regeringen i UK r\u00f6k precis p\u00e5 ett taskigt budgetf\u00f6rslag men Ryssland kan inf\u00f6ra undantagstillst\u00e5nd och f\u00f6ra \u00f6vergrepps-krig utan att det r\u00f6r p\u00e5 sig n\u00e4mv\u00e4rt i landet. Jag har ju alltid t\u00e4nkt att exilryssarna \u00e4r de som verkligen avskyr Putin men det f\u00f6refallet finnas om inte ett starkt folkligt st\u00f6d f\u00f6r landet Ryssland fortfarande s\u00e5 inte ett motst\u00e5nd, man kanske inte st\u00f6der systemet eller kriget men n\u00e4r andra l\u00e4nder g\u00e5r emot Ryssland d\u00e5 finns ens sympatier fortfarande med Ryssland.<\/p>\n

Chans till bubblare \u00e4r s\u00e5ledes l\u00e5g, Ukraina har genomf\u00f6rt lyckade offensiver och visat sig \u00f6verl\u00e4gsna ryska imperialistiska armen men vi g\u00e5r mot Jul och det \u00e4r mycket territorium kvar att befria. Den enskilt viktigaste parametern \u00e4r att Ukraina har f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga att bek\u00e4mpa ryssarna p\u00e5 Ukrainsk mark, personal har dom, dom beh\u00f6ver vapensystem i stor m\u00e4ngd.<\/p>\n

En till tanke som slagit mig nyligen \u00e4r att det b\u00f6rjar bli lite mindre intresse f\u00f6r Ukrainakriget. Bloggen h\u00e5ller flaggan h\u00f6gt men vissa dagar \u00e4r det l\u00e5gfart p\u00e5 kommentarerna och n\u00e5got annat \u00e4mne brukar ta fart.
\nDet \u00e4r nu det blir farligt f\u00f6r Kremlsk-psyops utnyttjar det till att f\u00e5 ut sina narrativ och tyv\u00e4rr s\u00e5 \u00e4r det inte alltid sanningen som vinner utan det man bombarderas mest med. Kan man f\u00e5 ig\u00e5ng stora oponioner mot sittande regeringar f\u00f6rsvinner st\u00f6det fr\u00e5n det landet till Ukraina som en avl\u00f6ning.<\/p>\n

Det som saknas f\u00f6r att ryska stridsledningen skall b\u00f6rja tveka p\u00e5 hela uppt\u00e5get \u00e4r en kil ned mot Azov, kanske \u00f6ster om Mariupol eller borta vid Tokmak \u2013 Melitopol.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:31 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Bara s\u00e5 det inte misstolkas, jag menar debatten i allm\u00e4nhet, det var inte ett f\u00f6rs\u00f6k att peka ut n\u00e5gra p\u00e5 bloggen som Kreml-\u00e4gda s\u00e5 det inte blir n\u00e5n pseudo-diskussion om det.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:35 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Imorgon f\u00e5r vi l\u00e4sa f\u00f6rsvarets rapport av vad man kan undvara till Ukraina, presskonferens 09:00 d\u00e4r rapporten presenteras i sin helhet. Den beh\u00f6ver ju egentligen vara en A4 sida \u2013 materiel f\u00f6r Ukraina och sen olika vapensystem och antal. Djupare \u00e4n s\u00e5 beh\u00f6ver vi v\u00e4l inte dyka, sen kan det v\u00e4l vara en hemligad del som tar upp det k\u00e4nsliga.<\/p>\n

Det b\u00e4sta s\u00e4ttet att skr\u00e4mma ryss-diktaturen \u00e4r ju att donera 500st CV90, 30st Archer och n\u00e5gra hundra Leo2 med motiveringen att vi har f\u00f6r m\u00e5nga \u2013 d\u00e5 skrinl\u00e4ggs nog alla planer p\u00e5 invasion.<\/p>\n

Eller blir det kvalhemligt och inl\u00e5st?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:49 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Jag var inte s\u00e5 d\u00e4r j\u00e4tteseri\u00f6s med att skicka den numer\u00e4ren men ser att det tolkades som det var skrivet s\u00e5 slarvigt skrivet av mig \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:51 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Har vi m\u00f6jligen n\u00e5gra kraftfullare mobila elverk inom f\u00f6rsvaret som vi skulle kunna avvara? Kanske \u00e4ven vanliga mindre elverk skulle kunna g\u00f6ra nytta?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:53 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Googlade lite och hittade det h\u00e4r: https:\/\/www.nyteknik.se\/energi\/forsvaret-sakrar-upp-elen-med-over-tusen-elverk-7039581<\/a> (fr\u00e5n i dag!). Det borde v\u00e4l kunna inneb\u00e4r att vi kanske kan sk\u00e4nka de som de \u00e4r t\u00e4nkta att ers\u00e4tta i alla fall.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:14 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Att Erdogan gick ut h\u00e4romdagen och l\u00e4t meddela att Putin var lite v\u00e4nligare inst\u00e4lld till f\u00f6rhandlingar tolkade jag som en biggie.<\/p>\n

Jo, det finns ju sk\u00e4l till att 101st \u00e4r i Rum\u00e4nien och Polen \u00f6var l\u00e4ngs Belarus gr\u00e4ns, jag ger det en vecka innan vi har p\u00e5 nyheterna att USA har en flott\u00f6vning i Medelhavet med n\u00e5n hangarfartygsgrupp och testskjuter lite Tomahawk.<\/p>\n

Eftersom Putin hittills bara har visat sig ha ett l\u00e4ge \u2013 eskalering, s\u00e5 \u00e4r risken r\u00e4tt h\u00f6g att han forts\u00e4tter eskalera t\u00e4nker nog jag, och att han eskalerar tills han m\u00e5ste v\u00e4nda sig in\u00e5t eller erbjuds en out.<\/p>\n

Men f\u00f6r att acceptera en out som inneb\u00e4r retr\u00e4tt fr\u00e5n Ukraina m\u00e5ste han ju f\u00f6rst k\u00e4nna att det \u00e4r ett attraktivare alternativ \u00e4n allt annat.<\/p>\n

Sen om dom v\u00e4nder sig in\u00e5t blir ju inte landet Ryssland eller relationen med v\u00e4st b\u00e4ttre av, och risken finns att Kina sl\u00e5r klorna i landet.<\/p>\n

Och att f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka knyta Ryssland till sig med \u00f6ppenhet, handel och schysst bem\u00f6tande resulterade ju i dagens situation.<\/p>\n

L\u00f6sningen p\u00e5 problemet \u00e4r inte direkt uppenbar, en b\u00f6rjan m\u00e5ste bli att Ukraina f\u00e5r freda sin nationsgr\u00e4ns och sen f\u00e5r man v\u00e4l jobba sig fram\u00e5t p\u00e5 b\u00e4sta s\u00e4tt?<\/p>\n

Ett Ryssland som knyts mot v\u00e4st och \u201ddemokratiseras\u201d vore ju b\u00e4sta alternativet varje dag, om det \u00e4r m\u00f6jligt.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:28 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Jag kan inte v\u00e4rdera ursprungsk\u00e4llan men Rob Lee har retweetat att ryssarna inte planerar att \u00f6verge staden Kherson, dom f\u00f6rst\u00e4rker, men drar ur bakre och mjuka delar.<\/p>\n

Jag tycker det l\u00e5ter rimligt.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/RALee85\/status\/1584442008076050433?s=20&t=TZOqbWGXmXKN-1YG4zgqVg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:37 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Det vore v\u00e4ldigt oryskt att inte f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka beh\u00e5lla ett brohuvud p\u00e5 den v\u00e4stra sidan och det skulle p\u00e5 n\u00e5got plan bli l\u00e4ttare att s\u00e4lja in om man konsoliderar \u00e4n att man \u00f6verger allt t\u00e4nker jag?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:45 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

V\u00e4lformulerat
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/defenceu\/status\/1584506622360965120?s=46&t=P5tHoFmZf2SgbUl-XsGAQQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:25 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Den h\u00e4r har v\u00e4l varit uppe gissar jag men med alla antidr\u00f6nar strategier s\u00e5 f\u00e5r man nog tillst\u00e5 att den h\u00e4r micro-dr\u00f6naren nog \u00e4r snudd p\u00e5 om\u00f6jlig att komma \u00e5t?
\nDen skall ju uppt\u00e4ckas till att b\u00f6rja med\u2026
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/tpyxanews\/status\/1584553719311798272?s=46&t=P5tHoFmZf2SgbUl-XsGAQQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:18 \u2013 Johan No.1 Nu har ju Shoigu ringt runt till sina dito i v\u00e4st och f\u00f6rklarat att Ukraina kan 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