{"id":6842,"date":"2022-10-25T09:48:19","date_gmt":"2022-10-25T07:48:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-10-25\/"},"modified":"2022-10-25T09:48:19","modified_gmt":"2022-10-25T07:48:19","slug":"2022-10-25","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-10-25\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-10-25"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:45<\/h2>\n

Om man kartrekar runt lite finns det goda sk\u00e4l att f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka h\u00e5lla staden Kherson f\u00f6r ryskt lag, inte bara som ett brohuvud men som vinterbivack.
\nEnorma skottf\u00e4lt, floder p\u00e5 flankerna och en flod i ryggen samt massa m\u00e4nskliga civila sk\u00f6ldar \u2013 jag kan t\u00e4nka mig en s\u00e4mre f\u00f6rsvarsposition \u00e4n s\u00e5 och alla elitf\u00f6rbanden \u00e4r v\u00e4l koncentrerade dit.<\/p>\n

Kozatzke \u00e4r en helt annan typ av f\u00f6rsvar som blir exponerat om Beryslav intas samt att det \u00e4r mycket mindre att \u201dg\u00f6mma sig i\u201d f\u00f6r ryssarna. D\u00e4r \u00e4r det en slirig utf\u00f6rsbacke om man f\u00e5r gissa som kommer sluta i kapitulation och panikartad retr\u00e4tt med f\u00e4rgglada badankor. F\u00f6rmodligen DPR och LPR som l\u00e4mnats som eftertrupp som f\u00e5r \u00e4ran att f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka simma \u00f6ver Dnepr.<\/p>\n

Nu g\u00e5r man i preventivt f\u00f6rsvar p\u00e5 \u00f6stra sidan Dnepr vilket ocks\u00e5 \u00e4r logiskt, varf\u00f6r ge upp en s\u00e5dan pass stark defensiv position?<\/p>\n

Motdraget b\u00f6r bli att nu n\u00e4r ryskt lag bundit upp trupp i staden Kherson och Dneprs \u00f6stra strand att man g\u00f6r sitt drag ned mot Azov. Det \u00e4r v\u00e4ldigt mycket diskussion kring Tokmak just nu, n\u00e4stan s\u00e5 pass mycket s\u00e5 man misst\u00e4nker att det inte \u00e4r huvudanfallsm\u00e5let.<\/p>\n

G\u00e5r man mot Melitopol, Mariupol, d\u00e4remellan eller \u00f6ster d\u00e4rom s\u00e5 klipper man aldrig retr\u00e4ttv\u00e4gen ned till Krim, men man g\u00f6r Krim till en isolerad \u00f6 och all terr\u00e4ng v\u00e4ster om inbrytningspunkten.<\/p>\n

Vi har v\u00e4l aldrig egentligen trott p\u00e5 ett frontalanfall mot f\u00e4stningen staden Kherson, m\u00e5let b\u00f6r rimligen ha varit att st\u00e4nga in f\u00f6rbanden d\u00e4r och d\u00e4refter skulle man kunna g\u00e5 vidare. Nu verkar det som man iallafall vill f\u00e5 till ett avg\u00f6rande \u00f6ster om Inhulets och str\u00e4var mot det.<\/p>\n

Kommer inte anfallet ned mot Azov nu i h\u00f6st blir min slutsats att Ukraina saknade f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga till det just nu, d\u00e5 har man prioriterat norra Luhansk och Kherson. Eftersom man g\u00e5r p\u00e5 offensiv p\u00e5 andra fronter \u00e4r det inte v\u00e4dret som hindrar.
\nDet \u00e4r f\u00e5 brigader (3st tror jag) som inte befinner sig vid aktiva fronter i dagsl\u00e4get s\u00e5 det finns egentligen ingen operativ reserv i den bem\u00e4rkelsen att det ligger 5-8 brigader som \u00e5terh\u00e4mtat helt bakom fronterna.<\/p>\n

Ja, det finns brigader som inte \u00e4r i stridskontakt men dom \u00e4r tilldelade ett frontavsnitt som f\u00f6rsvar eller insatsstyrka och vill man f\u00f6rst\u00e4rka n\u00e5gonstans m\u00e5ste man f\u00f6rsvaga d\u00e4r och dom f\u00e5r \u00e5terh\u00e4mta i f\u00e4lt. F\u00f6rst\u00e4rkningar och materiel kommer rimligen in \u00f6ver tid men det \u00e4r ju inte samma sak som att dra tillbaka en brigad och nyutrusta den samt f\u00f6rst\u00e4rka upp med reserver och ge alla permission osv.<\/p>\n

Underh\u00e5llet kommer bli trist f\u00f6r ryskt lag, s\u00e5 d\u00e4r riktigt ol\u00f6sligt trist. Jag gjorde aldrig den kopplingen men den stora sp\u00e5r-f\u00f6rst\u00f6rarfesten tidigare b\u00f6r ju rimligen ha varit f\u00f6r att tvinga upp ryskt underh\u00e5ll p\u00e5 landsv\u00e4g lagom tills den bl\u00f6ta s\u00e4songen?<\/p>\n

Nu har man dessutom f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkt upp med 200 000 man och dom skall ha sin k\u00e5lsoppa, drivmedel och ammunition. Ryska offensiver l\u00e4r det bli d\u00e5ligt med framledes men f\u00f6rsvar b\u00f6r man v\u00e4l kunna f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka sig p\u00e5.<\/p>\n

I bruset av allt som h\u00e4nder, eskalering, Erdogan b\u00f6rjar sondera f\u00f6rhandling s\u00e5 \u00e4r en annan pusselbit intressant, ryska laget bygger f\u00f6rsvar mot Ukraina i Belgorod och Kursk oblasts. Hade dom inte k\u00e4nt sig hotade hade dom inte byggt ett f\u00f6rsvar, s\u00e5 enkelt \u00e4r det ju. Att dom bygger f\u00f6rsvar signalerar ocks\u00e5 att dom t\u00e4nkt sig ett l\u00e5ngt krig.<\/p>\n

Verkar vara offensiva operationer vid Svatove igen?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:26<\/h3>\n

Japan var redan p\u00e5 fallrepet sist det begav sig med k\u00e4rnvapen och n\u00e4r USA sl\u00e4ppte bomberna s\u00e5 blev det v\u00e4l typ \u2013 \u201dmen va fan, inte det ocks\u00e5 \u2013 det h\u00e4r g\u00e5r ju inte\u201d och s\u00e5 gav man upp, eller man fick ett giltigt sk\u00e4l att ge upp f\u00f6r det stod klart f\u00f6r alla att USA var o\u00f6vervinnerliga. Sen var det ju signalpolitik till Sovjet, iallafall bomb tv\u00e5 \u2013 \u201dvi har n\u00e5t som inte ni har\u201d.<\/p>\n

Vad skulle ett k\u00e4rnvapen i Ukraina g\u00f6ra som \u00e4r v\u00e4rre \u00e4n \u2013 Mariupol, kastreringar, koncentrationsl\u00e4ger, tortyrcentraler, gasmask med snabel, v\u00e5ldtagna och tortyrm\u00f6rdade fem\u00e5ringar, slut p\u00e5 dagen efterpiller?<\/p>\n

Ukraina \u00e4r ju inte i n\u00e4rheten av att ge upp, dom h\u00e5ller p\u00e5 att ta tillbaka sitt land.<\/p>\n

V\u00e4st har ju absolut n\u00e5got som Ryssland har \u2013 k\u00e4rnvapen. V\u00e4st har ocks\u00e5 n\u00e5got som Ryssland inte har \u2013 tusentals l\u00e5ngdistansvapen och \u00f6verl\u00e4gsen informationsinh\u00e4mtning.<\/p>\n

Ett k\u00e4rnvapen eller sabotage i Enerhodar kommer bara bli Ukrainas och m\u00f6jligen v\u00e4sts Pearl Harbour, inget annat.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:45 Om man kartrekar runt lite finns det goda sk\u00e4l att f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka h\u00e5lla staden Kherson f\u00f6r ryskt lag, inte bara […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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