{"id":6846,"date":"2022-10-27T10:10:31","date_gmt":"2022-10-27T08:10:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-10-27-2\/"},"modified":"2022-10-27T10:10:31","modified_gmt":"2022-10-27T08:10:31","slug":"2022-10-27-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-10-27-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-10-27"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:16<\/h2>\n

H\u00e4r kommer en foliehatt p\u00e5 \u2013
\nJag har inte riktigt f\u00f6rst\u00e5tt hur stora alla dessa \u201dintelligence agencies\u201d \u00e4r, har ju flugit f\u00f6rbi att Putin har en privatarme p\u00e5 40 000st, Shoigu p\u00e5 27 000st och nu kom denna p\u00e5 50 000man.
\nFinns v\u00e4l sex stycken googlade jag mig till \u2013
\nhttps:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Intelligence_agencies_of_Russia<\/a><\/p>\n

Om man sammanfattar s\u00e5 har dom mer \u00e4n tillr\u00e4ckligt f\u00f6r att kontrollera landet Ryssland inrikes.<\/p>\n

Det som dr\u00e4neras nu i Ukraina \u00e4r den ryska armen som historiskt har varit ett tredje ben man har beh\u00f6vt h\u00e5lla kort f\u00f6r annars finns risken f\u00f6r revolution. <\/p>\n

Medvetet eller ej men hotet fr\u00e5n den ryska armen \u00e4r nog vid en l\u00e5gpunkt och man har inte k\u00f6rt slut p\u00e5 ovan sextett.
\nDet finns s\u00e5ledes ingen grogrund f\u00f6r en milit\u00e4r revolt av den enkla anledningen att milit\u00e4ren \u00e4r slagen i spillror och civila b\u00f6r man v\u00e4l kunna kontrollera med n\u00e5n halvmiljon i agencies ovan?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:20<\/h2>\n

Jag kan f\u00f6rst\u00e5 att Ukraina ser detta som ett existentiellt krig och att det h\u00e4r \u00e4r deras chans att ge ingen p\u00e5 Ryssland f\u00f6r hundratals \u00e5r av of\u00f6rr\u00e4tter.
\nMycket har man l\u00e4st genom \u00e5ren men det Sofia Hoas skrev gick r\u00e4tt in, \u00e4r v\u00e4l n\u00e5got med svensk-ukrainare som g\u00f6r att man tar till sig det p\u00e5 ett annat s\u00e4tt. \u00d6ver 200 \u00e5r av h\u00e5rda tider som ibland blev till existentiellt hot och ibland klarade man sig ok. Herregud vilket liv och allt ont kom fr\u00e5n Moskva f\u00f6rutom n\u00e4r Tyskland hade maktambitioner.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:29<\/h2>\n

Nu har det flugit f\u00f6rbi signalpolitik p\u00e5 h\u00f6gsta niv\u00e5 \u2013 amerikansk hangarfartygsgrupp (trodde det skulle ta en vecka), USA strategiska bombflyg \u00f6var, 101st i Rum\u00e4nien och omfattande milit\u00e4r\u00f6vningar upp mot Belarus gr\u00e4ns.
\nNATO flyttar ocks\u00e5 runt fr\u00e4mst flyg, Spanien har flyttar fram n\u00e5n skvadron och sen F35 fr\u00e5n vilket land det nu var tyckte jag fl\u00f6g f\u00f6rbi.<\/p>\n

Allt detta kommer efter Ukrainas h\u00f6stoffensiv, hade det varit en slagen ryss p\u00e5 full retr\u00e4tt hade inte denna eskalering skett.<\/p>\n

Vad g\u00f6r ryssarna, dom forts\u00e4tter offensiva operationer vid Siversk \u2013 Bakhmut linjen, dom hittar p\u00e5 n\u00e5got fr\u00e5n Belarus, dom har ingen intention att \u00f6verge norra Luhansk och dom f\u00f6refaller f\u00f6rbereda sig f\u00f6r bel\u00e4gring av staden Kherson men \u00f6verge \u00f6ster om Inhulets om det beh\u00f6vs.<\/p>\n

Jag b\u00f6rjar fundera p\u00e5 om inte en bubblare b\u00f6rjar ta sig upp\u00e5t h\u00e4r, att Ryssland kommer f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka dra sig ur p\u00e5 n\u00e5got s\u00e4tt?<\/p>\n

Varf\u00f6r d\u00e5?<\/p>\n

Nu har dom k\u00f6rt sin bombkampanj och den misslyckades, mobiliseringen gick ej som planerat och mobiliserad trupp duger inte till offensiva operationer (vet vi). <\/p>\n

Dom har inte slut p\u00e5 materiel men dom har slut p\u00e5 kompetenta bes\u00e4ttningar \u2013 skytte, f\u00f6rare, skyttar, laddare, piloter, andrepiloter, plutonchefer, kompanichefer, batchefer. Det blir sv\u00e5rt med offensiva operationer framledes.<\/p>\n

Man k\u00f6r nu slut p\u00e5 sin sista offensiva kapacitet i ett f\u00f6rs\u00f6k att kn\u00e4cka ryggen p\u00e5 Ukraina men jag tror fortfarande den kritiska massan \u00e4r till Ukrainas f\u00f6rdel h\u00e4r.<\/p>\n

Finns nog tv\u00e5 m\u00e5l, ett \u00e4r ett l\u00e5ngt l\u00e5gintensivt krig som \u00e4r hanterbart och det andra \u00e4r en out och det \u00e4r v\u00e4l d\u00e4rf\u00f6r Erdogan b\u00f6rjat sondera.<\/p>\n

Jag kan inte riktigt se att Ukraina \u00e4r beredda att avst\u00e5 land till Ryssland, eller erbjuda dom ett l\u00e5gintensivt krig, s\u00e5 den rimliga f\u00f6rhandlingstaktiken h\u00e4r \u00e4r v\u00e4l att g\u00f6ra det tillr\u00e4ckligt attraktivt f\u00f6r Ryssland att f\u00f6rhandla sig till en full retr\u00e4tt ur Ukraina?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:40<\/h2>\n

\u00d6ver batchef v\u00e5gar inte leda fr\u00e5n fronten l\u00e4ngre efter alla himarsade stabsplatser s\u00e5 dom sitter l\u00e5ngt borta fr\u00e5n kontaktlinjen och drar upp sina planer. F\u00f6r att undvika ryskt-kaos har batcheferna krav att f\u00f6lja order till sista bokstav och g\u00f6r dom inte det blir det sk\u00e4ndning av kadyrov-tjetjener. F\u00f6r att s\u00e4kerst\u00e4lla att allt g\u00e5r r\u00e4tt till har man linje av kadyrovtjetjener, FSB, Rosgvardia, Omon och vad mer som kontrollerar att gl\u00e4djen att d\u00f6 i grop inte sviktar.
\nSen n\u00e4r f\u00f6rsta skottet faller och planen ryker har batcheferna inget annat val \u00e4n att forts\u00e4tta med idiot-ordern eftersom h\u00f6gre chef sitter i en bunker 200km bort. <\/p>\n

-vilken soppa, stridsledning i v\u00e4rldsklass och p\u00e5 andra sidan har vi det allseende \u00f6gat som vet n\u00e4r en \u00f6verste \u00e4r i en mobil stabsplats som flyttas varje dag och n\u00e4r genomg\u00e5ngen b\u00f6rjat s\u00e5 man kan himarsa.<\/p>\n

Det som kommer st\u00f6ra mig resten av kriget \u00e4r att v\u00e4st underl\u00e4t att f\u00e5nga detta tillf\u00e4lle och skicka offensiva vapen, d\u00e5 hade Ukraina kunnat leverera sitt schackdrag i l\u00e5gpunkten och kriget f\u00f6rmodligen snart varit \u00f6ver, eller Ryssland redan tvingats till f\u00f6rhandlingsbordet.<\/p>\n

Det finns m\u00e5nga fr\u00e5getecken framledes men vi f\u00e5r f\u00f6rst och fr\u00e4mst hoppas att Ukraina inte f\u00f6rm\u00e5s att f\u00f6rhandla bort territorium. En enda kvadratmeter mark till Ryska laget ger en \u00f6ppning till fortsatt konflikt, d\u00e5 blir det ett l\u00e5gintensivt forever war och n\u00e5got ryska-diktaturen skulle v\u00e4lkomna.<\/p>\n

Landet Ryssland \u00e4r v\u00e4l den riktigt stora n\u00f6ten att kn\u00e4cka \u2013 ger man administrationen en out blir det mer av samma, faller Putin blir det v\u00e4rre, kn\u00e4cker man Ryssland totalt blir det kaos och Kina knyter Ryssland till sig. Att f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka stryka Ryssland medh\u00e5rs har redan gjorts och det tog oss till idag.<\/p>\n

Jag vill inget hellre \u00e4n ett demokratiserat Ryssland men tror inte det \u00e4r m\u00f6jligt, jag tror b\u00e4sta utfall \u00e4r ett Ryssland bakom en h\u00e5rd NATOv\u00e4gg och sanktioner f\u00f6r att kontrollera landet samt att man f\u00f6rm\u00e5r Kina att inte knyta Ryssland till sig \u2013 d\u00e5 kan vi r\u00e4kna hem en win, tyv\u00e4rr.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:23<\/h3>\n

Tror inte jag, USA\/v\u00e4st har gjort o\u00e4ndligt med f\u00f6rberedelser och har en f\u00e4rdig stege.<\/p>\n

Hittills kommer allt som svar p\u00e5 ryskt agerande, hade ryssarna idag retirerat \u00f6ver hela Ukraina hade vi inte f\u00e5tt se artikeln om hangarfartyget eller om det strategiska bombflyget \u2013 d\u00e5 hade USA\/v\u00e4st eskalerat n\u00e4r Ryssland deeskalerat.<\/p>\n

Nu eskalerar ryssarna s\u00e5 d\u00e5 aktiveras n\u00e4sta stegpinne osv.<\/p>\n

Ja, syftet \u00e4r ju att f\u00f6rm\u00e5 ryssarna att inte eskalera mer, n\u00e5t annat har v\u00e4l ingen sagt?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:05<\/h3>\n

N\u00e4, du \u00e4r bara riktigt otrevlig Tankfri, men nu har det varit lugn och ro i tr\u00e5den ett tag s\u00e5 ingen ide att hugga p\u00e5 dina beten \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n

Du har p\u00e5 n\u00e5n vecka kallat mig f\u00f6r allehanda invektiv, rysstroll var v\u00e4l en av h\u00f6jdpunkterna.
\nDu har s\u00e4nkt dig sj\u00e4lv till s\u00e4mre flashbackniv\u00e5.<\/p>\n

Varf\u00f6r du k\u00e4nner att du vill provocera och f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka f\u00f6rol\u00e4mpa andra vet bara du sj\u00e4lv, du lyckas h\u00e5lla dig lugn i perioder men n\u00e4r jag t\u00e4nker efter var du nog framme r\u00e4tt snabbt efter tr\u00e5dstart.<\/p>\n

Jag kan inte se n\u00e5got v\u00e4rde i en kommunikation med dig och v\u00e4ljer f\u00f6r det mesta att inte svara, k\u00e4nner du f\u00f6r att f\u00f6ra en diskussion \u00e4r ju det kanon men skippa invektiven?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:16 H\u00e4r kommer en foliehatt p\u00e5 \u2013 Jag har inte riktigt f\u00f6rst\u00e5tt hur stora alla dessa \u201dintelligence agencies\u201d \u00e4r, har […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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