{"id":6851,"date":"2022-10-31T08:07:55","date_gmt":"2022-10-31T07:07:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-10-31\/"},"modified":"2022-10-31T08:07:55","modified_gmt":"2022-10-31T07:07:55","slug":"2022-10-31","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-10-31\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-10-31"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:20<\/h2>\n

I september skrev vi v\u00e4l att ryssarna skulle maximalt kunna ta ett par, tre, m\u00e5nader av dessa skyh\u00f6ga f\u00f6rluster som kom d\u00e5 f\u00f6rsta veckan. Det var tv\u00e5 veckor h\u00f6ga f\u00f6rluster f\u00f6ljt av tv\u00e5 veckor l\u00e5ga f\u00f6rluster. <\/p>\n

Nu \u00e4r det 3.5veckor av h\u00f6ga f\u00f6rluster i str\u00e4ck som g\u00e5tt \u00f6ver i astronomiska f\u00f6rluster.<\/p>\n

Jag f\u00f6rst\u00e5r ocks\u00e5 att vi inte skall g\u00f6ra misstaget att g\u00f6ra en tysk h\u00e4r, det kommer in materiel dagligen till fronterna och enligt egen utsago har man f\u00e5tt ut 80 000 mobiliserade p\u00e5 f\u00f6rband. Men dom skall g\u00e5 ifr\u00e5n individer och enskild materiel till att fungera hj\u00e4lpligt i en enhet och l\u00f6sa sin uppgift.<\/p>\n

Argus kan nog vara n\u00e4r sanningen att ryssarna kommer \u00f6verge norra Luhansk d\u00e5 det blir oh\u00e5llbart att h\u00e5lla den fronten tillsammans med alla andra fronter. Det \u00e4r det logiska omr\u00e5det att ge upp nu n\u00e4r man f\u00f6rs\u00f6kt bygga en V-\u00d6 f\u00f6rsvarslinje ned\u00e5t Severedonetsk och Luhansk.
\nDet \u00e4r ju like sj\u00e4lvmordsben\u00e4get f\u00f6r det ger Ukraina SOFavst\u00e5nd och himarsavst\u00e5nd till N-S f\u00f6rs\u00f6rjningslinje utanf\u00f6r Ukrainas gr\u00e4ns men man har v\u00e4l annat att t\u00e4nka p\u00e5.<\/p>\n

Jag har nog hoppats att man skulle f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka h\u00e5lla Svatove s\u00e5 det blir en fin omfattning och som minst ett vackert gatlopp till den relativa friheten f\u00f6r dom som \u00f6verlever. Dom f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker v\u00e4l t\u00f6mma Svatove p\u00e5 materiel men det kan inte vara l\u00e4tt i den h\u00e4r gyttjan s\u00e5 kan bli ett fint tillskott materiel.<\/p>\n

Kherson ser jag inga tecken till retr\u00e4tt i (\u00e4nnu) annat \u00e4n att dom vidtar steg f\u00f6r att kunna evakuera om det beh\u00f6vs.
\nJag har en misstanke att dom kanske drar tillbaka elitf\u00f6rbanden och l\u00e4mnar \u00f6ver till LPR\/DPR\/nymobiliserade men det vet vi inte \u00e4nnu. Annars \u00e4r ju 40 000 p\u00e5 v\u00e4stra sidan Dnepr en sm\u00e5tt otrolig skalp som skulle s\u00e4nda shockv\u00e5gor in i djupaste Kreml \u2013 inte shackdraget kanske men man skakar buren rej\u00e4lt.<\/p>\n

Nu r\u00e5der som sagt Opsec s\u00e5 sv\u00e5rt att f\u00e5 bekr\u00e4ftar men ryssarna verkar g\u00e5 p\u00e5 offensiv l\u00e4ngs den s\u00f6dra fronten och bibeh\u00e5lla trycket mot Bakhmut \u2013 Siversk linjen som man nog f\u00e5r tillst\u00e5 blev en otrolig BTG grillare. Att sura \u00f6ver Lysychansk hade man kunnat hoppa \u00f6ver f\u00f6r nu \u00e4r det ju regelr\u00e4tta sj\u00e4lvmord som p\u00e5g\u00e5r.<\/p>\n

Det kan ocks\u00e5 vara s\u00e5 att de \u00f6kande f\u00f6rlusterna kommer sig av att man levererat fler vapensystem f\u00f6r indirekt eld + stora m\u00e4ngder m\u00e5lstyrd och r\u00e4tt ammunition?
\nMan h\u00e5ller trycket uppe mot lerig ryss i grop med allt l\u00e5ngsammare klippande \u00f6gon bakom lermasken?<\/p>\n

Det brukar ju lite raljerandes skriva att ett batteri 777 kan sl\u00e5 ut en rysk BTG p\u00e5 en f\u00f6rmiddag f\u00f6rutsatt att dom hoppar \u00f6ver kaffepauserna. Det st\u00e4mmer ju inte men som bloggen skriver, n\u00e4r man har ett moln av dr\u00f6nare som droppar vinggranater p\u00e5 ryss i grop, sv\u00e5rt att skydda sig.
\nAlla fordon av n\u00e5got slag i f\u00f6rsvar \u00e4r ett fast m\u00e5l som Ukraina har koordinaterna till och som v\u00e4ntar p\u00e5 att sl\u00e5s ut.
\nVi har ju alla sett de kommersiella satellitbilderna som DefMon och NLWartracker visar och USA allseende \u00f6ga \u00e4r ju \u00e4nnu b\u00e4ttre \u00e4n s\u00e5, s\u00e5 pass bra att dom kunde sl\u00e5 ut stabsplatser som flyttas dagligen och exakt n\u00e4r stabsm\u00f6tena h\u00f6lls.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:28<\/h3>\n

En sak till som kanske bidrar till h\u00f6ga ryska d\u00f6dstal \u00e4r v\u00e4l att Ukrainas m\u00f6rkerf\u00f6rm\u00e5ga \u00f6kar exponentiellt samtidigt som den g\u00e5r mot icke-existerande f\u00f6r ryska landslaget i cirkus?<\/p>\n

Vi t\u00e4nkte oss att de tv\u00e5 pansarbrigaderna med polska vagnar skulle vara murbr\u00e4cka nattetid och vi har inte sett s\u00e5 mycket men nu kan jag t\u00e4nka mig att det kommit in tillr\u00e4ckligt f\u00f6r att man skall kunna strida nattetid och sen har jag k\u00e4nslan av att Ukraina nu b\u00f6r kunna beh\u00e4rska denna svartkonst som i stort sett alltid slutade i kaos eller felk\u00f6rningar n\u00e4r man f\u00f6rs\u00f6kte.<\/p>\n

De f\u00f6rband som finns kvar \u00e4r v\u00e4l nu en arme som kan strida dagtid men sitter still nattetid, helst vill dom sova?
\nUkrainska SOF har v\u00e4l bildf\u00f6rst\u00e4rkare till varje patrull rimligen och det finns IR riktmedel p\u00e5 mycket pansar och alla nattseende dr\u00f6nare. M\u00f6rkerstrid k\u00e4nns som ett vinnande koncept fram\u00f6ver och att vi g\u00e5r lite mot Finska Vinterkriget 2.0 h\u00e4r d\u00e4r ryssarna \u00e4r helt livr\u00e4dda f\u00f6r SOF och inte t\u00e4nder n\u00e5gra eldar utan sitter och klipper med \u00f6gonen i lerig grop ist\u00e4llet.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:24<\/h4>\n

Jaha nu l\u00e4ste jag att bloggen tagit upp nattstrid, var samma video som v\u00e4ckte tanken men tv\u00e5a p\u00e5 den s\u00e5ledes, allt \u00e4r som det ska \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:53<\/h2>\n

Nu har tydligen ryssarna slagit mot vattenf\u00f6rs\u00f6rjningen s\u00e5 det finns viss logik i missil-regnet.
\nProryska forum \u00e4r helt saliga, deras m\u00e5ndag igen \u2013 man ger sig inte p\u00e5 Ryssland ostraffat.<\/p>\n

Ett v\u00e4rre l\u00e5ngsamt sj\u00e4lvmord f\u00e5r man n\u00e4stan leta efter, tror Ryssland p\u00e5 allvar att v\u00e4st inte kan om dom vill?
\nV\u00e4st avh\u00e5ller sig fr\u00e5n storskalig h\u00e4mnd f\u00f6r att dom vill vara den vuxna i rummet.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:20<\/h2>\n

Denna har kanske varit uppe men i ett debattprogram i RT sparas det inte p\u00e5 dr\u00f6mmarna vad man vill g\u00f6ra med Ukrainska barn.<\/p>\n

Jag t\u00e4nker alltid att t\u00e4nk om man b\u00f6rjar h\u00f6ra s\u00e5dan retorik i Agenda eller Aktuellt om Norge?
\nRyssland \u00e4r enormt l\u00e5ngt g\u00e5nget som diktatur det kan vi nog alla h\u00e5lla med om, det \u00e4r lite som n\u00e4r man ser n\u00e5n dold kamera fr\u00e5n hatpredikanter och radikalisering \u00e4r ett riktigt gift.<\/p>\n

\u00c4r det detta man ser och h\u00f6r i TV och telegram kan man v\u00e4l n\u00e4stan f\u00f6rst\u00e5 ryska armens agerande?
\nDet \u00e4r statssanktionerat och uppmuntras.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/JuliaDavisNews\/status\/1584054018145685504?s=20&t=T__bzE\u2013PCJoVG94bMA_AA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:20 I september skrev vi v\u00e4l att ryssarna skulle maximalt kunna ta ett par, tre, m\u00e5nader av dessa skyh\u00f6ga f\u00f6rluster 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