{"id":7036,"date":"2022-11-07T10:45:55","date_gmt":"2022-11-07T09:45:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-11-07-2\/"},"modified":"2022-11-07T10:45:55","modified_gmt":"2022-11-07T09:45:55","slug":"2022-11-07-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-11-07-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-11-07"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:14<\/h3>\n

Skator \u2013 jag tror man vill beh\u00e5lla hela Kherson om det g\u00e5r.
\nMan \u00e4r beredd att \u00f6verge \u00f6ster om Inhulets om det kniper.
\nHelst vill man nog inte \u00f6verge staden Kherson.
\nMan vill inte f\u00f6rbruka alla VDV i processen \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n

Det p\u00e5g\u00e5r n\u00e5n typ av rotation och det skulle inte f\u00f6rv\u00e5na mig om Ukraina helt pl\u00f6tsligt g\u00e5r ned mot Khakovka och sen n\u00e4r historien skall skrivas var det inga VDV bland de tillf\u00e5ngatagna, till exempel.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:36<\/h2>\n

H\u00e4r sitter man ganska m\u00e5ndagstr\u00f6tt och skall f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka komma ig\u00e5ng med veckan.<\/p>\n

Slog mig att LW inte har missat en dag sedan krigsstart och har en uppsj\u00f6 av andra \u00e5taganden och i tr\u00e5den \u00e4r det v\u00e4l Erik14 som h\u00e5llit nollan eller n\u00e4ra p\u00e5.<\/p>\n

Vi andra kommer och g\u00e5r lite som vi orkar i det st\u00e4ndiga pusslet barn, jobb, leva \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n

Det brukade alltid vara n\u00e5n kommentar som tackade bloggen vid dagens b\u00f6rjan, var ett tag sen och har kanske ersatts av den dagliga donationen, som jag tycker \u00e4r mycket bra men r\u00e4tt snyggt att h\u00e5lla nollan i blogg och tr\u00e5d efter 8 m\u00e5nader \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:10<\/h2>\n

Proryska k\u00e4llor b\u00f6rjar gn\u00e4lla \u00f6ver hur d\u00e5ligt de egna offensiverna g\u00e5r, ett otroligt fingerpekande och olika bef\u00e4lhavare har v\u00e4l dagsl\u00e4ndas livsl\u00e4ngd p\u00e5 ett ungef\u00e4r. Det st\u00e5r still p\u00e5 fronterna men \u00e4r inte lugnt, det \u00e4r ryska anfall s\u00e5 mycket dom klarar av och vad kan syftet med dessa anfall egentligen; Vuhledar, Pisky, Bilohorivka, Bakhmut, Soledar och ett par platser till. <\/p>\n

Jag tror Oblast-krigandet har upph\u00f6rt, man f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker inte l\u00e4ngre ta Luhansk och Donetsk Oblasts och utropa fred i v\u00e5r tid, det t\u00e5get har g\u00e5tt och det vet hypnopaddan. I norra Luhansk \u00e4r det mer av f\u00f6rsvarsstrider \u00e4n offensiva operationer. Vid Bilohorivka \u00e4r det ocks\u00e5 egentligen f\u00f6rsvar d\u00e5 Ukraina avs\u00e5g att g\u00e5 p\u00e5 offensiv d\u00e4r.
\nMellan Soledar \u2013 Vuhledar har Ukraina h\u00e5llit sig lugna och det \u00e4r r\u00e4tt ryskt livligt med h\u00f6ga kn\u00e4n och kollektiva sj\u00e4lvmord i tusental. Vad \u00e4r m\u00e5let med detta? Vi vet att man bef\u00e4ster Dnepr \u00f6stra strand s\u00e5 det finns en vilja att h\u00e5lla hela omr\u00e5det bakom S\u00f6dra fronten. S\u00f6dra fronten har ocks\u00e5 varit statiskt s\u00e5 f\u00f6rmodat ok f\u00f6rsvar?<\/p>\n

Mellan Donetsk \u2013 Horlivka s\u00e5 trycker man p\u00e5 v\u00e4ster om tidigare stillest\u00e5ndslinjer och sitt f\u00f6rbereda f\u00f6rsvar \u2013 sv\u00e5rt att se att man jagar b\u00e4ttre positioner inf\u00f6r vintern? Bakhmut \u2013 Siversk, den linjen har man stormat non-stop sedan Ukraina drog sig tillbaka dit fr\u00e5n Lysychansk \u2013 varf\u00f6r? <\/p>\n

Man hade kunnat g\u00e5 norrut fr\u00e5n S\u00f6dra fronten t\u00e4nker jag och f\u00f6rs\u00f6kt n\u00e5 Zaporoznye och Dnipro, en stor flod som flankskydd \u00e4r inte helt dumt.<\/p>\n

Det finns v\u00e4l lite olika alternativ till detta till synes ologiska agerande.
\n-man bara k\u00f6r p\u00e5 med det man kan.
\n-ingen ifr\u00e5gas\u00e4tter order utan man kastar allt mot senaste generalordern som f\u00e5tt ligga kvar.
\n-ny bef\u00e4lhavare beordrar anfall f\u00f6r att r\u00e4dda sitt skinn.
\n-man har f\u00f6rs\u00f6kt kn\u00e4cka ryggen p\u00e5 Ukraina under h\u00f6sten med anfall d\u00e4r man kan och bek\u00e4mpat k\u00e4nslig infrastruktur med tunga vapen \u2013 f\u00f6rhoppningen har varit att Ukraina varit lika tr\u00f6tta som dom sj\u00e4lva och att vilja till f\u00f6rhandling skulle uppst\u00e5.<\/p>\n

Den sista \u00e4r v\u00e4l det enda som har ett visst m\u00e5tt av professionalism i sig men d\u00e5 skulle man ha f\u00f6rs\u00f6kt \u00f6ppna sin norra front samtidigt tillsammans med en offensiv norrut fr\u00e5n S\u00f6dra fronten, man n\u00e5dde typ halvv\u00e4gs.<\/p>\n

Ukraina klipper alltid till med n\u00e5got riktigt smart, n\u00e5got som g\u00f6r skillnad, man tar ett d\u00e5ligt f\u00f6rsvarat omr\u00e5de och l\u00e5ter ryssarna ta tillbaka det med otroliga f\u00f6rluster eller g\u00e5r in och \u00e5tertar strategiska positioner d\u00e4r luckor finns. Ryska laget \u00e4r totala motsatsen, helt meningsl\u00f6sa offensiva operationer och jag kan inte se ett dolt syfte annat \u00e4n kanske den sista punkten men d\u00e5 var det d\u00e5ligt utf\u00f6rt.<\/p>\n

Po\u00e4ngen \u00e4r att n\u00e5gonstans i September upph\u00f6rde egentligen ryska offensiva operationer och dom \u00f6vergick i f\u00f6rsvar. Nu har dom f\u00f6rs\u00f6kt \u00e5terta initiativet genom terrorbomningar mot mjuk infrastruktur och extremt intensiva anfall. Det som saknas\/saknades var egentligen bara att \u00f6ppna en norra front fr\u00e5n Belarus, V-\u00d6 om Kharkiv och offensiva operationer s\u00f6derifr\u00e5n. Flyget har bevisligen g\u00e5tt all in trots f\u00f6rbr\u00e5ken innan de dagliga genomg\u00e5ngarna vem som skall ta ukraina-rutten.<\/p>\n

Eftersom Ukraina s\u00e4llan s\u00f6lar s\u00e5 har dom naturligtvis f\u00f6rberett sig f\u00f6r en ny runda offensiva operationer, \u00f6ster om floden Inhulets verkar ligga n\u00e4ra till hands och f\u00f6rmodat ocks\u00e5 norra Luhansk? N\u00e4r schackdraget levereras \u00e4r om\u00f6jligt att veta men det ligger i korten det ocks\u00e5.<\/p>\n

D\u00e5 uppkommer fr\u00e5gan \u2013 \u00e4r ryssarna slut?<\/p>\n

F\u00f6rbanden \u00e4r numera en grupp soldater som l\u00e4rt sig skjuta AK blandat med mycket krigstr\u00f6tta erfarna soldater och f\u00f6rmodat skriande brist p\u00e5 nyckelpersonal \u00f6ver hela specialoperationen.<\/p>\n

Dom har inget f\u00f6rsvar mot m\u00e5lstyrd ammunition och inget skydd mot det heller, och Ukrainas f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga \u00f6kar hela tiden.
\nLedningen har bytts ut s\u00e5 m\u00e5nga g\u00e5nger att f\u00f6rm\u00e5gan att samarbeta torde vara l\u00e5g.<\/p>\n

Ni minns stegen som en grupp g\u00e5r upp f\u00f6r i lumpen, eller annan valfri verksamhet. F\u00f6rsta veckan fick man aldrig upp t\u00e4ltet och lade sig under t\u00e4ltduken och sov runt midnatt. Mot slutet \u00e5kte t\u00e4ltet upp p\u00e5 en kvart. Den utvecklingen av gruppen st\u00f6rs ut om man tillf\u00f6r eller drar bort personal, om man tillf\u00f6r \u00e4r det l\u00e4ttare att absorbera men om man drar bort (och tillf\u00f6r) halkar gruppen ned r\u00e4tt m\u00e5nga pinnh\u00e5l p\u00e5 stegen.
\nF\u00f6rm\u00e5gan att samarbeta, fungera som en enhet och att l\u00f6sa uppgifter sjunker kraftigt.<\/p>\n

M\u00e5nga ryska BTG var f\u00f6rmodat skal vid n\u00e5got tillf\u00e4lle och sen har dom fyllts upp och stridsledningen \u00e4r v\u00e4l helt utbytt vid det h\u00e4r laget?<\/p>\n

Nu verkar ryska armen f\u00e5 iv\u00e4g soldaterna att d\u00f6 \u00e4nd\u00e5 vilket verkar vara ett golv och det f\u00e5r man ge dom full credit f\u00f6r. F\u00f6rm\u00e5gan att l\u00f6sa uppgifter och stridsv\u00e4rde f\u00f6r enheter torde vara l\u00e5g.<\/p>\n

Tittar man p\u00e5 stridsledningens planer f\u00f6r offensiv senaste +m\u00e5naden s\u00e5 signalerar det inte direkt kompetent krigf\u00f6ring.
\nSer man p\u00e5 hur strid f\u00f6rs av f\u00f6rbanden \u00e4r det back-to-basic. Spring i riktning Ukraina och skjut.<\/p>\n

Finns det n\u00e5gon m\u00f6jlighet f\u00f6r Ryssland att \u00e5terst\u00e4lla sin f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga \u2013 nej.<\/p>\n

Man kan f\u00e5r leverans av materiel men den skall rattas ocks\u00e5 och n\u00e5gon skall styra denna materiel och en samling personal s\u00e5 att dom kan l\u00f6sa en uppgift och den f\u00f6rm\u00e5gan \u00e4r nog permanent borta nu.<\/p>\n

Med det sagt \u00e4r inte kriget slut och ukrainska soldater d\u00f6r varje dag. Intensiteten p\u00e5 striderna vid \u00f6stfronten saknar nog motstycke sedan WW2 och det \u00e4r otroligt tr\u00e5kigt att vi inte satsat fullt ut p\u00e5 Ukraina h\u00e4r. Men dom reder sig \u00e4nd\u00e5 och nu \u00e4r vi f\u00f6rbi en punkt d\u00e4r det skulle finnas n\u00e5got scenario d\u00e4r Ryssland kan vinna.
\nBeginning och the end eller end of the beginning \u00e4r v\u00e4l en smaksak i sammanhanget men en milstolpe \u00e4r passerad f\u00f6r ett tag sedan \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:32<\/h4>\n

Skator, l\u00e4ste hela analysen och jag fann den mycket intressant.
\nDetaljerad minst sagt.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:22<\/h3>\n

Ett fel, Bakhmut \u00e4r en viktig ort.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:01<\/h3>\n

Jag satt ocks\u00e5 och funderade i dom banorna hms repulse \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Dom k\u00f6r p\u00e5 rad utan eld i m\u00e5let tills dom bli utskjutna. Som en skjutbana.<\/p>\n

D\u00e5lig sikt och allt men r\u00e4tt mycket \u00e4r ju kurs A1, typ att en pluton ger underst\u00f6d och att man skjuter i m\u00e5let.<\/p>\n

Sen den eviga k\u00f6r samma v\u00e4g som f\u00f6rra minspr\u00e4ngningen, d\u00f6dsf\u00f6raktande eller vansinne.<\/p>\n

Eller s\u00e5 \u00e4r det bara suicide by cop vi ser?
\nHar den vinkeln varit uppe som f\u00f6rklaring \u00e4nnu<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12:14 Skator \u2013 jag tror man vill beh\u00e5lla hela Kherson om det g\u00e5r. Man \u00e4r beredd att \u00f6verge \u00f6ster om […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7036","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ukraina","category-arkiv01"],"yoast_head":"\n2022-11-07 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-11-07-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2022-11-07 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"12:14 Skator \u2013 jag tror man vill beh\u00e5lla hela Kherson om det g\u00e5r. 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