{"id":7037,"date":"2022-11-08T09:37:43","date_gmt":"2022-11-08T08:37:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-11-08\/"},"modified":"2022-11-08T09:37:43","modified_gmt":"2022-11-08T08:37:43","slug":"2022-11-08","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-11-08\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-11-08"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:30<\/h2>\n

Rimliga krav fr\u00e5n Ukraina tycker jag allt.
\nGe oss tillbaka V\u00c5RT land, betala f\u00f6r allt NI haft s\u00f6nder, lagf\u00f6r alla krigsf\u00f6rbrytare.<\/p>\n

Neutralt h\u00f6ga f\u00f6rluster, har tappat r\u00e4kningen men \u00e5tminstone 2 + 3 + 1.5 veckor av mycket h\u00f6ga f\u00f6rluster nu.<\/p>\n

L\u00e4ste n\u00e5got ig\u00e5r i tr\u00e5den om full retr\u00e4tt fr\u00e5n Kherson, innan dess en h\u00f6gst trov\u00e4rdig artikel om f\u00f6rsvar till sista soldaten, Defmon b\u00f6rjar luta \u00e5t retr\u00e4tt osv. i all o\u00e4ndlighet \u2013 f\u00f6r och emot.
\nDet enda vi egentligen vet s\u00e4kert \u00e4r att Ukraina f\u00f6rmodligen haft tid att f\u00f6rbereda en ny offensiv vid Kherson och b\u00f6rjar bli f\u00e4rdiga att g\u00e5 fram\u00e5t igen, rimligen omr\u00e5det \u00f6ster om Inhulets, och att det r\u00f6r p\u00e5 sig snart.
\nVi vet ocks\u00e5 att tr\u00f6gheten \u00e4r enorm, snipereffekten gick s\u00e5d\u00e4r samt att det \u00e4r tv\u00e5 skilda frontavsnitt \u2013 omr\u00e5det \u00f6ster om Inhulets och staden Kherson.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r r\u00f6rigt \u2013 jag lutar \u00e5t att man f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker bevara VDV, bereda sig p\u00e5 att ge upp omr\u00e5det \u00f6ster om Inhulets om det kr\u00e4vs men f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka h\u00e4rda ut i staden Kherson om det g\u00e5r. Det skulle inte f\u00f6rv\u00e5na mig det minsta om det blir stor m\u00e4ngd f\u00e5ngar \u00f6ster om Inhulets men noll VDV. <\/p>\n

Att ge upp en bef\u00e4st stad med flod inne i sj\u00e4lva staden i SV h\u00f6rnet och som f\u00f6rsvaras av VDV vore m\u00e4rkligt. Det \u00e4r l\u00e4ttare att himarsa bort allt f\u00f6rsvar p\u00e5 Dneprs \u00f6stra strand \u00e4n att f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka hitta f\u00f6rsvarande ryss i en stor stad. Staden saknar inte heller f\u00f6rr\u00e5d och ligger under artilleriparaply.
\nDet \u00e4r inte lika bra som Severedonetsk men det \u00e4r ingen dum defensiv position d\u00e4r man kan retirera l\u00e4ngst ned i SV och ta sig \u00f6ver Dnepr i flera steg. D\u00e4r finns ocks\u00e5 en liten bro \u00f6ver till \u00f6n mitt i Dnepr.<\/p>\n

Det g\u00e5r v\u00e4l ocks\u00e5 att bef\u00e4sta samh\u00e4llena l\u00e4ngs Dnepr \u00f6stra strand men \u00e4ven ryssarna borde v\u00e4l se v\u00e4rdet i en v\u00e4lbef\u00e4st defensiv position som kan binda Ukrainska f\u00f6rband och \u00e5samka dom f\u00f6rluster?
\nDet g\u00e5r inte att genomf\u00f6ra en regelr\u00e4tt stormning staden Kherson utan oerh\u00f6rda f\u00f6rluster f\u00e5r man v\u00e4l utg\u00e5 ifr\u00e5n?<\/p>\n

Dock s\u00e5 b\u00f6rjar det g\u00e5 mot sin uppl\u00f6sning, iallafall f\u00f6r omr\u00e5det \u00f6ster om Inhulets och den h\u00e4r fronten har f\u00f6rsvarats av rysslands elitf\u00f6rband, b\u00e4ttre \u00e4n s\u00e5 h\u00e4r kan dom aldrig prestera.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:32<\/h3>\n

Jag tycker ocks\u00e5 man ser tecken p\u00e5 ut\u00f6kat f\u00f6rsvar l\u00e4ngs med S\u00f6dra fronten och sen har vi allt f\u00f6rberett f\u00f6rsvar l\u00e4ngs Dneprs \u00f6stra strand \u2013 signalerar att man t\u00e4nker sig h\u00e5lla omr\u00e5det bakom S\u00f6dra fronten.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:33<\/h2>\n

Det slog mig precis att ovan tankar saknade en faktor \u2013 att ryssarna beh\u00f6ver v\u00e4lja vad dom f\u00f6rsvarar.
\nOM dom \u00f6verger hela Kherson betyder det rimligen att dom \u00e4r i behov av VDV et.al p\u00e5 andra frontavsnitt?<\/p>\n

\u00c4n s\u00e5 l\u00e4nge \u00e4r vi v\u00e4l inte d\u00e4r men det \u00e4r ryssarnas elit och det kan v\u00e4l h\u00e4nda att ett annat omr\u00e5de \u00e4r p\u00e5 v\u00e4g att falla som \u00e4r strategiskt viktigare \u00e4n staden Kherson?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:57<\/h2>\n

Noterade att snudd p\u00e5 de sista man\u00f6verbrigaderna nu \u00e4r vid aktiva fronter.
\nAirmobile ned mot Moldavien har f\u00f6rflyttats och det verkar vara bara tv\u00e5 mek kvar l\u00e4ngs hela norra fronten fram till Kharkiv.
\nMan har s\u00e5ledes satt in allt.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:08<\/h3>\n

I v\u00e5ras n\u00e4r jag drev tesen att Ukraina hade den kritiska massan till sin f\u00f6rdel och byggde upp en offensiv reserv (vilken dom gjorde) s\u00e5 backade jag upp det med att ett antal 4-8 man\u00f6verbrigader inte var i aktiva frontlinjer.<\/p>\n

Nu n\u00e4r jag scannar brigaderna och deras positioner, vilka \u00e4r ungef\u00e4ra men n\u00e4r \u00e4garen till f\u00f6rbandskartan f\u00e5r information om att dom \u00e4r i strid flyttar han f\u00f6rbandet, s\u00e5 ser jag egentligen bara tv\u00e5 mekbrigader i ej aktiva fronter.<\/p>\n

Sen har du hela territorial som dom bemannar norra fronten med osv. men detta g\u00e4ller man\u00f6verbrigaderna och min tolkning \u00e4r att NG brigaderna nu \u00e4r s\u00e5 pass erfarna att dom ing\u00e5r i man\u00f6verbrigaderna.<\/p>\n

Om (nu h\u00e4nder inte det) Ukraina skulle tvingas backa i detta l\u00e4ge har dom inte reserver att sl\u00e4nga in. Dom har reserver vid frontavsnitten som ligger i vila men inte hela man\u00f6verbrigader som refitas och haft l\u00e4ngre vila, just nu.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:30 Rimliga krav fr\u00e5n Ukraina tycker jag allt. Ge oss tillbaka V\u00c5RT land, betala f\u00f6r allt NI haft s\u00f6nder, lagf\u00f6r […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7037","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ukraina","category-arkiv01"],"yoast_head":"\n2022-11-08 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-11-08\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2022-11-08 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"10:30 Rimliga krav fr\u00e5n Ukraina tycker jag allt. 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