{"id":7060,"date":"2022-11-21T08:53:04","date_gmt":"2022-11-21T07:53:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-11-21-2\/"},"modified":"2022-11-21T08:53:04","modified_gmt":"2022-11-21T07:53:04","slug":"2022-11-21-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-11-21-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-11-21"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:03<\/h2>\n

09:22 \u2013 det d\u00e4r \u00e4r gl\u00e4djande att se f\u00f6r det \u00e4r snudd p\u00e5 allm\u00e4nbildning att man antingen l\u00e4gger n\u00e5got p\u00e5 t\u00e4ltduken, fyller upp med jord mot t\u00e4ltet eller sn\u00f6. <\/p>\n

Lyckas dom inte med det s\u00e5 l\u00e4r dom v\u00e4l ha sv\u00e5rt att h\u00e5lla sig torra och hela den biten och sen \u00e4r vinterkriget 2.0 ig\u00e5ng.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:08<\/h3>\n

Tj\u00e4len g\u00f6r att markbrisader ger mer splitter, om inte annat lite frusen jord och is ocks\u00e5.
\nDet man splipper \u00e4r v\u00e4l jord-uppkoken som begraver en hel skyttegrav.<\/p>\n

Luftbrisader\/zonr\u00f6r b\u00f6r v\u00e4l kunna \u201dstudsa runt\u201d lite mer och sen ocks\u00e5 skapa nytt splitter i form av is och frusen jord?<\/p>\n

Jag minns att jag byggde ett v\u00e4rn av stenar tidigt i lumpen och efter tv\u00e5 sekunders stor stolthet \u00f6ver gruppens b\u00e4sta skydd fick jag f\u00f6rklarat f\u00f6r mig skillnaden mellan stock och sten och att sten bara skapade splitter och sen fick jag bygga ett nytt.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:23<\/h3>\n

Bra inl\u00e4gg MRF och detta citat \u00e4r intressant \u201dminns alla iranier som ville bli tandl\u00e4kare p\u00e5 80-talet samtidigt som det l\u00e4r ha varit stor brist p\u00e5 just den yrkesgruppen i Iran och \u00e5tskilliga l\u00e4r efter vad jag h\u00f6rt \u00e5terv\u00e4nt hem n\u00e4r man var klar med studierna\u201d<\/p>\n

Av den anledningen att fram till helt nyligen s\u00e5 kunde vem som helst plugga i Sverige gratis, man kom in efter betyg.
\nI ett land som Iran kan man ju k\u00f6pa ett officiellt betyg och var det statssanktionerat \u00e4nnu l\u00e4ttare rimligen.<\/p>\n

Till historien h\u00f6r att det knuffade ut de svenska studenter som ville bli tandl\u00e4kare men som hade l\u00e4gre betyg.<\/p>\n

L\u00e4karutbildningen och tandkl\u00e4karlinjen \u00e4r storslukare av skattemedel\/ student.
\nAtt d\u00e5 ge bort den gratis till ej svenska medborgare som dessutom aldrig jobbade h\u00e4r var mycket m\u00e4rkligt men det har tydligen \u00e4ndrats nu.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:29<\/h2>\n

Om man hakar p\u00e5 blogginl\u00e4gget s\u00e5 har det varit mycket uppgifter om att VDV f\u00f6rst\u00e4rker i norra Luhansk. Exakt var \u00e4r inte klart f\u00f6r mig men det signalerar f\u00f6rsvarsvilja och att det kr\u00e4vdes att rotera f\u00f6rband fr\u00e5n Kherson upp dit f\u00f6r att fylla p\u00e5.<\/p>\n

Efter Svatove har vi Starobilsk och d\u00e4refter \u00e4r v\u00e4l n\u00e4sta f\u00f6rsvar en V-\u00d6 linje n\u00e5nstans runt, eller norr om, staden Luhansk. Den torde definitivt vara befolkad av VDV.<\/p>\n

N\u00e5gon skrev ig\u00e5r att b\u00e5da sidor f\u00f6rbereder sig f\u00f6r n\u00e4r tj\u00e4len satt sig i marken, Ukraina ligger absolut i startgroparna f\u00f6r fortsatta offensiva operationer \u2013 norra Luhansk och schackdraget samt kanske n\u00e5t i Donetsk om m\u00f6jligheten yppar sig.<\/p>\n

Vad ska ryska sidan hitta p\u00e5 \u2013 jag har r\u00e4tt l\u00e4nge f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntat mig en \u201dst\u00f6rningsoperation\u201d ned fr\u00e5n Belarus som binder Ukrainsk trupp alternativt en st\u00f6rningsoperation n\u00e5nstans vid Kharkovfronten. Det vore ologiskt att inte presentera n\u00e5got hot p\u00e5 denna str\u00e4cka alls.<\/p>\n

F\u00f6rsvaret av norra Luhansk och S\u00f6dra fronten f\u00f6rbereds. Vid s\u00f6dra fronten vet jag inte hur m\u00e5nga lager f\u00f6rsvar det \u00e4r nu men det g\u00e5r \u00e4nda ned till norra Krim, minst.<\/p>\n

H\u00f6ga-kn\u00e4anfallen har g\u00e5tt minst sagt katastrofalt, nu har vi sett filmer p\u00e5 f\u00e4lt fulla med stupade ryska soldater.
\nFortsatta isolerade offensiva operationer mellan Vuhledar \u2013 Siversk \u00e4r v\u00e4l rimligt att antaga men jag har fortfarande sv\u00e5rt att f\u00f6rst\u00e5 vad dom vill uppn\u00e5 med detta?<\/p>\n

Detta krig \u00e4r mycket kring dominerande terr\u00e4ng och en stad som Bakhmut ser jag ett v\u00e4rde i, har inte kartrekat alla andra h\u00e5lor tillr\u00e4ckligt v\u00e4l.<\/p>\n

D\u00e4remot s\u00e5 vet vi att dom sl\u00f6sar bort det sista dugliga dom har h\u00e4r.<\/p>\n

Ist\u00e4llet f\u00f6r att jobba sig till en linje Horlivka-Bakhmut-Siversk som dom sen inte kan h\u00e5lla kan dom v\u00e4l lika g\u00e4rna falla tillbaka till Horlivka- Popasna- Lysychansk?<\/p>\n

Antingen s\u00e5 \u00e4r dessa anfall f\u00f6r att ge tid \u00e5t f\u00f6rberedelser f\u00f6r en defensiv linje att falla tillbaka till eller s\u00e5 har dom ett politiskt syfte \u2013 vi anfaller n\u00e5gonstans och d\u00e4rf\u00f6r sj\u00e4lvm\u00f6rdas vi inte. Men det mots\u00e4gs av retr\u00e4tten fr\u00e5n Kherson. Vet inte.<\/p>\n

Vinterkriget kommer i m\u00e5ngt och mycket bli spelet mellan Ukrainska offensiva f\u00f6rs\u00f6k och ryska lagets parerande defensiva operationer.<\/p>\n

Det kommer ocks\u00e5 bli kampen mot kylan och v\u00e4tan som snudd p\u00e5 kommer dominera \u00f6ver faktisk strid.<\/p>\n

\u00c5terigen \u2013 inget skriker m\u00e5l som en r\u00f6kplym och ryska laget m\u00e5ste b\u00f6rja v\u00e4rma sig. Sen kommer dom klumpa ihop sig och SOF kan h\u00e4rja p\u00e5 mot grupper snarare \u00e4n spridda i massa gropar. Du kan helt enkelt inte f\u00e5 en rysk soldat att sitta i sin grop utan v\u00e4rme n\u00e4r det b\u00f6rjar g\u00f6ras upp eld en bit d\u00e4rifr\u00e5n och fulvodkan blir drickbar, han sugs liksom in av vodka-virveln och kan inte g\u00f6ra s\u00e5 mycket \u00e5t det.<\/p>\n

Viss oro att m\u00e4ngden m\u00e5lstyrd ammunition i leveranser verkar minska men som sagt s\u00e5 har vi 2000st kammikazedr\u00f6nare i en stad n\u00e4ra dig snart som kan skapa kaos.<\/p>\n

Proryska forum b\u00f6rjar prata om att ryska artilleriet har \u00e5terh\u00e4mtat sig, vi ser ingen direkt indikation p\u00e5 det f\u00f6rutom att vi h\u00f6r prat om artilleridueller lite oftare \u00e4n f\u00f6rut.<\/p>\n

Till sist blir Vinterkriget ocks\u00e5 kampen att f\u00f6rs\u00f6rja frontf\u00f6rbanden. H\u00e4r har Ukraina redan decimerat ryska laget s\u00e5 h\u00e5rt att det nog \u00e4r og\u00f6rligt. UA b\u00f6rjar redan s\u00f6ka sig ut\u00e5t mot Rostov-na-Don och m\u00f6rkaste Donbass.<\/p>\n

Sammantaget b\u00f6r ryska frontf\u00f6rbands skick vara otroligt d\u00e5ligt n\u00e4r v\u00e5ren knackar p\u00e5.<\/p>\n

Om man f\u00e5r gissa \u2013 Ryssarna hoppas kunna g\u00e5 i ett s\u00e5 pass h\u00e5rt f\u00f6rsvar att Ukraina inte g\u00f6r n\u00e5gra stora terr\u00e4ngvinster under vintern och sen har dom mobiliserat upp n\u00e4sta runda efter jul + Belarus arme f\u00f6r att g\u00e5 p\u00e5 en f\u00f6rnyad offensiv under v\u00e5ren 2023 n\u00e4r marken och v\u00e4dret till\u00e5ter. Vi kan vara trygga i att det finns materiel f\u00f6r det d\u00e5 Belarus \u00f6ppnat sina f\u00f6rr\u00e5d och vi nu har flera m\u00e5nader d\u00e4r Ryssland kan serva upp gammal materiel, dom har haft snart ett \u00e5r p\u00e5 sig att f\u00e5 reparationskedjan i ordning.<\/p>\n

N\u00e4r vi nu listat ut detta s\u00e5 f\u00e5r man v\u00e4l anta att Ukrainas stridsplan \u00e4r att g\u00f6ra s\u00e5 stor skada dom bara kan innan v\u00e5rens offensiver drar ig\u00e5ng \u2013 g\u00e4rna stora terr\u00e4ngvinster och n\u00e5t avg\u00f6rande om det g\u00e5r, men att dom samtidigt bygger upp ett f\u00f6rsvar f\u00f6r att m\u00f6ta Rostr\u00f6d Storm fram\u00e5t v\u00e5rkanten. Bra f\u00f6rsvar norrut och p\u00e5 alla andra st\u00e4llen man inte t\u00e4nkt sig offensiva operation samt rotera frontf\u00f6rband f\u00f6r l\u00e4ngre vilor.<\/p>\n

Kan dom komma \u00e5t ytterligare underh\u00e5ll \u00e4r det f\u00f6rmodligen prioritet och vi har v\u00e4l l\u00e4nge tyckt att NS underh\u00e5llsv\u00e4g utanf\u00f6r Ukrainas \u00f6stra landgr\u00e4ns borde hetta till snart.<\/p>\n

Lite f\u00f6renklat kanske men nu under vintern kan man l\u00e5ta v\u00e4dret g\u00f6ra jobbet s\u00e5 viss f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga f\u00f6r Ukraina finns det nog att bygga upp lagren av smart ammunition igen.<\/p>\n

Man lider dock med civila i ockuperade omr\u00e5den, till allt annat l\u00e4ggs att ryssarna kommer plundra dom p\u00e5 det lilla dom har. \u00d6verlevnadschans l\u00e5g.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:03 09:22 \u2013 det d\u00e4r \u00e4r gl\u00e4djande att se f\u00f6r det \u00e4r snudd p\u00e5 allm\u00e4nbildning att man antingen l\u00e4gger n\u00e5got […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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