{"id":7178,"date":"2022-12-01T09:38:36","date_gmt":"2022-12-01T08:38:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-12-01-2\/"},"modified":"2022-12-01T09:38:36","modified_gmt":"2022-12-01T08:38:36","slug":"2022-12-01-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-12-01-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-12-01"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

13:25<\/h2>\n

Det h\u00e4r med skenm\u00e5l finner jag mycket intressant. Har v\u00e4l inte varit p\u00e5 tapeten sen WW2 egentligen och iallafall jag har levt i uppfattningen att ryssarna informationsinh\u00e4mtning var b\u00e4ttre \u00e4n s\u00e5 h\u00e4r (f\u00f6r jag l\u00e4ste in LW tillr\u00e4ckligt noggrant).<\/p>\n

Som exempel tror ju ryssarna att dom slagit ut alla ukrainska HIMARS f\u00f6r dom har filmer p\u00e5 massa skenm\u00e5l som g\u00e5r upp i r\u00f6k och sen det d\u00e4r med flygbaserna \u2013 fantastiskt smart.<\/p>\n

H\u00e4r antecknar nog f\u00f6rsvarsmakten och l\u00e4gger upp lager med rullar av krevadgrop p\u00e5 vaxduk och har f\u00e5tt n\u00e5n snickeriverkstad att bygga Archer i tr\u00e4.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:03<\/h2>\n

Det verkar p\u00e5g\u00e5 en enorm f\u00f6rbek\u00e4mpning vid S\u00f6dra fronten just nu och b\u00e5de UA och ryska cirkusen laddar upp med f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkningar.<\/p>\n

Satt ig\u00e5r och t\u00e4nkte att det vore busenkelt att komma runt dr\u00f6narf\u00e4lld vinggranat, man t\u00e4cker \u00f6ver alla v\u00e4rn med minst duk och mest \u00f6verbyggnad.<\/p>\n

Nu har den vandrande cirkusen precis lyckats l\u00e4ra sig att gr\u00e4va n\u00e5nting b\u00e4ttre \u00e4n grund grop, till och med lite plank har dom f\u00e5tt fram, s\u00e5 det \u00e4r sannolikt flera m\u00e5nader tills dom har tak \u00f6ver alla v\u00e4rn.
\nSkall inte f\u00f6rv\u00e4xlas med bunkern i v\u00e4rnsystemet som \u00e4r kraftigare byggd.<\/p>\n

Ett tak skyddar v\u00e4l egentligen fr\u00e5n upp till 82mm men ett skyl g\u00f6r det sv\u00e5rt att se, d\u00e5 m\u00e5ste dr\u00f6narna reka \u00f6ver tid hur ryss i grop hoppar runt och kv\u00e4ker.<\/p>\n

Trappan \u00e4r r\u00e4tt uppenbar \u2013 HIMARS mot bakre och m\u00e5lstyrd\/eldledd dum ammunition mot m\u00e5l i stridslinjerna \u2013 samlad trupp eller h\u00e5rda m\u00e5l. Dr\u00f6nargranaterna \u00e4r nere p\u00e5 pluton och man sl\u00e4pper dom p\u00e5 ryss i grop.
\nUngef\u00e4r h\u00e4r i tid b\u00f6r Ukraina ha tagit hela denna ensemble till perfektion s\u00e5 varhelst man sl\u00e4pper l\u00f6s den blir det d\u00f6d ryss i grop.<\/p>\n

Sl\u00e5r man till exempel ut alla h\u00e5rda m\u00e5l vid ett frontavsnitt och h\u00e5ller artilleriet borta med counterbattery fire s\u00e5 spelar det ingen roll hur v\u00e4lbef\u00e4st ett v\u00e4rnsystem \u00e4r. F\u00f6rst f\u00e5r stridsvagnar rulla fram utom r\u00e4ckh\u00e5ll f\u00f6r n\u00e4r-PV och sl\u00e5 ut allt som r\u00f6r sig tillsammans med indirekt eld och dr\u00f6nar-bomber.<\/p>\n

D\u00e4refter k\u00f6r man fram infanteriet splitterskyddat med strv som underst\u00f6d i ett mekanfall. Har man bara tillr\u00e4ckligt med eld i m\u00e5let tar pansarskyttet inte alltf\u00f6r stora f\u00f6rluster f\u00f6r ryss ligger p\u00e5 botten av sin grop och surar eller v\u00e4ljer liv. Vi har sett en hel del filmer p\u00e5 det. Ukraina har l\u00e4rt sig spela sn\u00e5lpoker (TM LarsC) \u00e4ven med mekanfall vilket v\u00e4l f\u00e5r anses vara r\u00e4tt h\u00f6g niv\u00e5 p\u00e5 kunnandet.<\/p>\n

Det man b\u00f6rjar fundera p\u00e5 \u00e4r om Ukraina med denna strategi och v\u00e4drets inverkan p\u00e5 ryss i grop kan anfalla genom h\u00e5rt bef\u00e4sta omr\u00e5den p\u00e5 ren styrka?<\/p>\n

Jag b\u00f6rjar luta \u00e5t det, vi f\u00e5r se vid s\u00f6dra fronten men hittills har i alla fall mina tankar g\u00e5tt kring var det svaga punkten \u00e4r f\u00f6r det har varit lite Ukrainas stil hittills.<\/p>\n

T\u00e4nker man ren styrka s\u00e5 \u00e4r Melitopol inte ett dumt anfallsm\u00e5l f\u00f6r kilen ned mot Azov. Man kanske inte omfattar lika stora f\u00f6rband som om man g\u00e5r ned \u00f6ster om Mariupol men man uppn\u00e5r blocken mot Krim som \u00e4r det v\u00e4sentliga och det \u00e4r en r\u00e4tt bra NS linje av naturligt f\u00f6rsvar \u2013 en bra b\u00f6rjan.<\/p>\n

Jag har nog sett det som og\u00f6rligt hittills dels pga det naturliga f\u00f6rsvaret och sen ocks\u00e5 ryssarnas numer\u00e4r i det omr\u00e5det men det kanske \u00e4r dags att omv\u00e4rdera.<\/p>\n

De tre omfattningarna som b\u00f6rjar formas vid Bakhmut, Toretsk och Avdiivka \u00e4r r\u00e4tt intressanta f\u00f6r i ett strategiskt perspektiv \u00e4r dom helt irrelevanta och framf\u00f6rallt \u00e4r dom d\u00e5lig krigf\u00f6ring om ryssarna g\u00e5r och f\u00e5r stryk i norra Luhansk och med schackdraget ned mot Azov \u2013 b\u00e4gge \u00e4r p\u00e5 g\u00e5ng.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r noterbart att Ukraina \u00e4r ig\u00e5ng igen och vill ha offensiva v\u00e4stvapen, dom har helt klart det behovet f\u00f6r dom har v\u00e4l bra underr\u00e4ttelsel\u00e4ge och vet att ryssarna f\u00f6rbereder sig s\u00e5 gott dom kan f\u00f6r v\u00e5roffensiven.<\/p>\n

Dom vet sannolikt ocks\u00e5 att dom skall passa p\u00e5 att tillfoga ryss i grop maximal skada under vinters\u00e4songen f\u00f6r att ge Putin taskigast m\u00f6jliga utg\u00e5ngsl\u00e4ge n\u00e4r v\u00e5ren kommer. Han m\u00e5ste skicka ned allt till Donbass p\u00e5 minerade v\u00e4gar och tungstensregn alternativt rakt mot bef\u00e4sta f\u00f6rsvarslinjer.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:07<\/h3>\n

*(f\u00f6r jag l\u00e4ste INTE LW tillr\u00e4ckligt noggrant) skall det s\u00e5klart st\u00e5\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:15<\/h2>\n

F\u00f6rnyade robotanfall p\u00e5 g\u00e5ng.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/NOELreports\/status\/1598278004383285249?s=20&t=08ecti2VvZ72SLhaW0p2Og<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:18<\/h2>\n

N\u00e4r man l\u00e4ser s\u00e5nt h\u00e4r s\u00e5 inser man att man totalt missat vad sanktionerna var om, jag har levt i tron att vi inte k\u00f6per rysk olja?<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/NOELreports\/status\/1598201341360623616?s=20&t=08ecti2VvZ72SLhaW0p2Og<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

13:25 Det h\u00e4r med skenm\u00e5l finner jag mycket intressant. Har v\u00e4l inte varit p\u00e5 tapeten sen WW2 egentligen och iallafall […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7178","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ukraina","category-arkiv01"],"yoast_head":"\n2022-12-01 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-12-01-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2022-12-01 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"13:25 Det h\u00e4r med skenm\u00e5l finner jag mycket intressant. 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