{"id":7188,"date":"2022-12-09T08:41:25","date_gmt":"2022-12-09T07:41:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-12-09-2\/"},"modified":"2022-12-09T08:41:25","modified_gmt":"2022-12-09T07:41:25","slug":"2022-12-09-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-12-09-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-12-09"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

14:01<\/h2>\n

Man f\u00e5r absolut en k\u00e4nsla f\u00f6r sv\u00e5righeterna i Ukraina nu n\u00e4r vinterkylan b\u00f6rjar l\u00e4gga sig och man har halvkallt inne och akut effektbrist \u00e4r p\u00e5 agendan. Det m\u00e5ste vara absolut fruktansv\u00e4rt f\u00f6r inv\u00e5narna i till exempel Mariupol just nu och vintern har bara b\u00f6rjat. Dom hade redan innan knappt vatten eller mat och nu kan dom inte v\u00e4rma sig.
\nDet m\u00e5ste vara \u00e4nnu v\u00e4rre att inte kunna skydda sina barn mot vare sig hunger, kyla eller sk\u00e4ndande rysk soldat.<\/p>\n

L\u00e4gg till den allm\u00e4nna mis\u00e4ren att hungriga ryssar kommer plundra civilbefolkningen i ockuperade omr\u00e5den p\u00e5 precis allt, mat, br\u00e4nnbart och varma kl\u00e4der. Att man inte gjorde slut p\u00e5 det h\u00e4r kriget innan vintern var mycket olyckligt. <\/p>\n

Likaledes s\u00e5 tror jag vi r\u00e4tt snart kommer f\u00e5 se antingen dr\u00f6narfilmer eller filmer fr\u00e5n soldat-telefon p\u00e5 ihj\u00e4lfrusna ryssar i sin grop \u2013 Vinterkriget 2.0. Alla v\u00e4rmek\u00e4llor sp\u00e5rar man med r\u00f6kplymen eller IR kameror p\u00e5 dr\u00f6narna och runt dom samlas det ett stort vackert m\u00e5l.
\nMed lite tur f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker stridsledningen parera alla utslagna ryska grupp-mys-brasor med ett eldf\u00f6rbud och d\u00e5 fryser det ihj\u00e4l \u00e4nnu fler. Vodka och kyla g\u00e5r inte bra ihop och en nykter rysk soldat har vi v\u00e4l inte sett \u00e4nnu.<\/p>\n

Nu b\u00f6rjar ett senf\u00e4rdigt EU s\u00e5 sm\u00e5tt vakna, eller USA g\u00e5r ut i media och s\u00e4tter tryck p\u00e5 Tyskland att skicka Leopard. Jag fick f\u00f6r mig att det var Leo2 men enligt Paul var de hos Krauss Maffei Leo1. Det p\u00e5 vilka uppgraderingar dessa Leo1 f\u00e5tt men det blir kanske inte den enorma f\u00f6rm\u00e5geh\u00f6jningen vi t\u00e4nkt oss med senaste versionen av Leo2 A7 \u2013 b\u00e4ttre \u00e4n inget och stark signalpolitik. Hela denna diskussion om v\u00e4stpansar ligger r\u00e4tt i tid f\u00f6r v\u00e5rens offensiver s\u00e5 man f\u00e5r v\u00e4l gissa att v\u00e4sts motdrag mot ryska f\u00f6rberedelser f\u00f6r en v\u00e5roffensiv \u00e4r att b\u00f6rja plocka fr\u00e5n de \u00f6vre hyllorna. Putins motdrag blir vad\u00e5, att kisa \u00e4nnu l\u00e4ngre in i dunklet i f\u00f6rr\u00e5den och sl\u00e4pa ut de sista rostade exemplaren av n\u00e5gra KV1.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r lite m\u00e4rkligt just nu f\u00f6r Erik14 poster signalerar enorm f\u00f6rbek\u00e4mpning, Opsec r\u00e5der, Gregg har b\u00f6rjat hinta om genombrott men kanarief\u00e5geln i gruvan \u2013 Rybar \u2013 han h\u00e5ller p\u00e5 med annat. Han brukar vara mycket kvick att springa runt och skrika i falsett. <\/p>\n

Det ser ut som att Ryssland f\u00f6rst\u00e4rker upp \u00e4ven Svatovelinjen med VDV nu, hur stor numer\u00e4r \u00e4r oklart men det b\u00f6rjar singla in tweets fr\u00e5n twittergudarna om det. Det betyder tv\u00e5 saker \u2013 h\u00f6gt tryck mot f\u00f6rsvarslinjen och en intention att h\u00e5lla sagda linje.<\/p>\n

Sen snurrar det runt ett felt\u00e4nk, kartor med f\u00f6rsvarslinjens utbredning och att Ukraina kommer ha \u201dj\u00e4ttesv\u00e5rt\u201d att \u201dta den\u201d. Jo hela linjen ser trist ut men Ukraina stridsspanar sig fram till en svag punkt, n\u00e5t f\u00f6rsvar av kanaliserande terr\u00e4ng som inte l\u00e4ngre \u00e4r kanaliserande f\u00f6r det fryst p\u00e5 och passerar den i b\u00e4sta Maginotlinjen-style (vi gillar fransm\u00e4n!) nattetid. Sen sprider sig SOF som en enorm solfj\u00e4der, man f\u00f6rsvarar flankerna och k\u00f6r in pansar p\u00e5 djupet s\u00e5 bakre brinner och bl\u00f6der. <\/p>\n

Minor i all \u00e4ra men man gr\u00e4ver ned dom d\u00e4r man tror fienden skall passera och just nu gr\u00e4ver man inte ned n\u00e5gra minor alls, man f\u00e5r g\u00f6mma dom i sn\u00f6n (vilket i och f\u00f6r sig inte \u00e4r mindre farligt). Passerar Ukraina \u00f6ver det d\u00e4r frysta vattendraget \u00e4r sannolikheten f\u00f6r att det \u00e4r minerat l\u00e5g och man seglar rakt igenom.<\/p>\n

R\u00e4tt snabbt blir hela f\u00f6rsvarslinjen d\u00e5 obsolet, det \u00e4r rimligt att anta att Ukraina kan f\u00e5 pl\u00f6tsliga genombrott, tr\u00e4nga in p\u00e5 djupet och b\u00f6rja rulla upp hela linjen N och S.<\/p>\n

Om man f\u00e5r gissa finns det mer VDV vid N-S linje genom Starobilsk och sen \u00d6-V linje runt Luhansk.
\nJag har funderat p\u00e5 om man kan \u00f6ka pressen vid S\u00f6dra fronten s\u00e5 pass att dom frivilligt \u00f6verger norra Luhansk pga. personalbrist men f\u00f6rmodligen inte. Dom visar stor vilja att f\u00f6rsvara detta omr\u00e5de med sina b\u00e4sta f\u00f6rband.<\/p>\n

Min femhundring p\u00e5 att Azov-st\u00f6ten skulle ske fr\u00e5n Vuhledar och S\u00d6 ser ut att torpederas f\u00f6r just det omr\u00e5det \u00e4r en fokuspunkt f\u00f6r ryska anfall efter Bakhmut. Dom vill v\u00e4l r\u00e4ta ut sin frontlinje.<\/p>\n

Eftersom kyla och m\u00f6rker \u00e4r Ukrainas b\u00e4sta v\u00e4n och skapar kaos hos ryssarna g\u00e5r tankarna nu att man kanske ger sig p\u00e5 Melitopol trots allt. Det har sett og\u00f6rligt ut hela h\u00f6sten med sina f\u00f6rsvarslinjer i dominant terr\u00e4ng och h\u00f6ga numer\u00e4r men vips blev kanaliserande terr\u00e4ng obsolet och man har skickat VDV norrut.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r inte orimligt att man g\u00e5r s\u00f6derut mot Tokmak och sen n\u00e4r ryssarna f\u00f6rsvagar Dnepr-linjen, ocks\u00e5 b\u00f6rjar trycka p\u00e5 \u00f6ver Dnepr. Man skulle nog r\u00e4tt snabbt tvinga fram en rysk organiserad retr\u00e4tt (totalt kaos) ned till Krim och sen g\u00e5 i f\u00f6rsvar \u00f6sterut l\u00e4ngs Vasylivka \u2013 Tokmak \u2013 Melitopol och sl\u00e4ppa l\u00f6s 2000st sj\u00e4lvmordsdr\u00f6nare och HIMARS \u00f6ver Krim bara f\u00f6r att man kan.<\/p>\n

Jag tycker det \u00e4r r\u00f6rigt kring var ryska f\u00f6rband \u00e4r och deras stridsduglighet men man beh\u00f6ver v\u00e4l inte vara sl\u00e4kt med Patton f\u00f6r att f\u00f6rst\u00e5 att dom har ett starkt f\u00f6rsvar l\u00e4ngs s\u00f6dra fronten och att det kr\u00e4vs kyla, m\u00f6rker och mycket indirekt eld f\u00f6r att ta sig igenom utan katastrofala f\u00f6rluster. Det som var om\u00f6jligt under tidig h\u00f6st \u00e4r inte l\u00e4ngre om\u00f6jligt f\u00f6rhoppningsvis n\u00e4r ryss i grop b\u00f6rjar bli sm\u00e5 djupfrysta bollar av is med ih\u00e4rdigt trummande ben f\u00f6r att h\u00e5lla v\u00e4rmen.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:04<\/h2>\n

Jag m\u00e5ste fr\u00e5ga \u2013 \u00e4r det etablerad sanning att Putin h\u00e5ller sig med body doubles eller \u00e4r det konspiration (fortfarande)?
\n\u00c4r lite sen p\u00e5 den bollen och t\u00e4nker att det har v\u00e4l studerats med \u00f6ron och n\u00e4svingar nu s\u00e5 man har bevis?<\/p>\n

Just n\u00e4r man t\u00e4nkte dra ig\u00e5ng en v\u00e4nda om den sprattlande pinhatan setts p\u00e5 r\u00f6rlig bild med dagens tidning d\u00f6k han ju upp halsandes en flaska champagne.<\/p>\n

Man vet v\u00e4l aldrig heller n\u00e4r det \u00e4r i tid men det s\u00e5g ut som sp\u00e5rbara nyheter.<\/p>\n

Kan han g\u00e5 och bli palats-kuppad n\u00e5ng\u00e5ng skulle det iallafall k\u00e4nnas lite b\u00e4ttre.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:42<\/h3>\n

Det kommer vara tungt f\u00f6r Ukrainska soldater ocks\u00e5 det h\u00e4r men mina pengar \u00e4r p\u00e5 att ryssarna sk\u00f6ter detta o\u00e4ndligt mycket s\u00e4mre. <\/p>\n

Sen har vi en till bubblare som det \u00e4r h\u00f6g sp\u00e4nningsfaktor p\u00e5 \u2013 kommer ryssarna k\u00f6ra pansar, lastbilar och allt annat p\u00e5 tomg\u00e5ng f\u00f6r v\u00e4rme?<\/p>\n

G\u00f6r dom det s\u00e5 kommer dom garanterat k\u00f6ra slut p\u00e5 soppan och det blir den stora soppatorsken igen men f\u00f6r en retr\u00e4tt \u2013 dom f\u00e5r g\u00e5 p\u00e5 dom d\u00e4r stelfrusna benen.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

14:01 Man f\u00e5r absolut en k\u00e4nsla f\u00f6r sv\u00e5righeterna i Ukraina nu n\u00e4r vinterkylan b\u00f6rjar l\u00e4gga sig och man har halvkallt […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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