{"id":7195,"date":"2022-12-13T10:00:23","date_gmt":"2022-12-13T09:00:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2022-12-13-2\/"},"modified":"2022-12-13T10:00:23","modified_gmt":"2022-12-13T09:00:23","slug":"2022-12-13-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2022-12-13-2\/","title":{"rendered":"2022-12-13"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:16<\/h2>\n

Tror ni Ukraina tar en sida ur sovjetiska stridsplanen mot norra flanken och anfaller p\u00e5 juldagen eller n\u00e4r nu ryssarnas jul infaller (Kina \u00e4r 20 Januari i \u00e5r f\u00f6r \u00f6vrigt)?<\/p>\n

Det kan inte vara helt kul att vara ryss i grop med regn dagtid och minusgrader nattetid, alkoholkonsumtionen torde skena. L\u00e4r vara helt om\u00f6jligt att f\u00e5 rysk soldat att inte \u00f6ppna flaskan till jul, \u00e4r v\u00e4l lika traditionsbundet som kalle ankas jul hos oss. 05:00 juldagens morgon blir det alla man\u00f6verbrigader fram\u00e5t \u00f6sterut, anfallsm\u00e5l A till F d\u00e4r F \u00e4r gr\u00e4nsen mot Ryssland (f\u00f6rs\u00f6k till att dramatisera lite).<\/p>\n

Erik14 postade att Ukraina st\u00e4rkt upp med 4-5 man\u00f6verbrigader vid Bakhmut, det k\u00e4nns lite \u00f6ver niv\u00e5n f\u00f6r f\u00f6rsvar. Vi kanske har en tredje m\u00f6jlig offensiv i Donbass?<\/p>\n

Norra Luhansk \u00e4r p\u00e5g\u00e5ende och kommer forts\u00e4tta tills omr\u00e5det \u00e4r befriat, det \u00e4r mycket intressant att ryssarna inte klarar av att h\u00e5lla emot vid Kreminna. Kartrekar man s\u00e5 borde ryssarna kunna s\u00e4tta upp ett r\u00e4tt bra f\u00f6rsvar i all skog, staden och med floden som flankskydd. Det \u00e4r inte klart f\u00f6r mig om Siversky Donets frusit p\u00e5 eller inte \u00e4nnu men har dom k\u00f6rt in VDV att f\u00f6rst\u00e4rka NS linje genom Svatove b\u00f6r dom rimligen ha f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkt upp Kreminna ocks\u00e5.<\/p>\n

Kreminna \u00e4r en ganska viktig ort att inte sl\u00e4ppa taget om, kanske viktigare \u00e4n Svatove. N\u00e4r jag skriver Kreminna \u00e4r det staden, Rubizne och skogsomr\u00e5den V och \u00d6 om v\u00e4gen. Det \u00e4r gamla dagbrott \u00f6ster om v\u00e4g P66 (heter den s\u00e5) d\u00e4r man har dominerande terr\u00e4ng och h\u00f6jd\u00f6vertag.<\/p>\n

Som bloggaren p\u00e5pekade h\u00e4romdagen, faller Kreminna faller ju hela NS linje genom Svatove\u2026 Man kommer in \u201dbakom\u201d och kan g\u00e5 mot Starobilsk och ned mot Severedonetsk genom bebyggelse eller skog och sen \u00f6ver tid forts\u00e4tta N och \u00d6.<\/p>\n

Ned mot Azov \u00e4r f\u00f6rmodligen v\u00e4rldshistoriens mest f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntade offensiv men det g\u00e5r p\u00e5 ren styrka, kyla, m\u00f6rker, indirekt eld och SOF t\u00e4nker jag. Nu har tydligen Ukraina tryckt bort ryssarna fr\u00e5n Vuhledar en bit s\u00e5 var st\u00f6ten kommer \u00e4r en \u00f6ppen fr\u00e5ga.<\/p>\n

M\u00f6rkaste Donbass mellan Donetsk \u2013 Bakhmut vore ocks\u00e5 smart, kanske rebel-nation \u00e4r like h\u00e4ngiga s\u00e5 h\u00e4r \u00e5rs efter att ha f\u00e5tt g\u00e5 f\u00f6rst i vartenda anfall sedan krigsstart. Deras bubblande positivism f\u00f6r Ryssland kanske har lagt sig lite efter tjetjenska sp\u00e4rrtrupper och grupp-sk\u00e4ndanden framf\u00f6r egen pluton. K\u00e4nde dom att dom var andra klassens medborgare i Ukraina b\u00f6r dom k\u00e4nna sig rej\u00e4lt nedtryckta nu n\u00e4r desert\u00f6rer f\u00e5tt huvuden inslagna med sl\u00e4gga eller kastrerats. Hela f\u00f6rband b\u00f6r rimligen fundera p\u00e5 en out efter ett \u00e5rs krigande som g\u00e5r allt s\u00e4mre.<\/p>\n

En bubblare jag haft l\u00e5ngt ned p\u00e5 listan \u00e4r att LPR och DPR byter sida. Ukraina b\u00f6r och skall inte k\u00f6ra \u00f6ver dom som en \u00e5ngv\u00e4lt, dom skall dingla EU medlemskap och \u201den lysande framtid \u00e4r er\u201d framf\u00f6r dom. \u00d6stra Ukraina \u00e4r ett industriellt (var\u2026) powerhouse som skulle m\u00e5 mycket gott med tillg\u00e5ng till EUs inre marknad. <\/p>\n

Har man d\u00e5 inte t\u00e4nkt sig fara fram som Ryssland i de \u00f6stra provinserna b\u00f6r man rimligen ha sonderat om man kan f\u00e5 till ett sidbyte vid r\u00e4tt tidpunkt?
\nHur fronten \u00e4r bef\u00e4st i m\u00f6rkaste Donbass vet jag inte men man f\u00e5r v\u00e4l gissa att vissa avsnitt h\u00e5lls av DPR och LPR f\u00f6rband?
\nKan dom l\u00e4gga ned vapnen eller \u00e4nnu hellre byta sida f\u00e5r man ett mycket sv\u00e5rl\u00f6st genombrott f\u00f6r ryssarna.<\/p>\n

Idag vet hela DPR och LPR exakt hur det ligger till, dom vet att Ryssland inte kan f\u00f6rsvara dom och dom vet ocks\u00e5 att Ryssland behandlar dom extremt illa. Soldater \u00e4r ocks\u00e5 f\u00e4der som har familj och s\u00f6ner (vete fanken om rebellerna har m\u00f6nstrat p\u00e5 kvinnor men det skall v\u00e4l st\u00e5 d\u00f6ttrar och m\u00f6drar ocks\u00e5 s\u00e5 det inte blir f\u00f6r tr\u00e5ngsynt).
\nTror ni att himarsade ryska f\u00f6rl\u00e4ggningar i m\u00f6rkaste Donbass \u00e4r ett tidigt tecken?<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r trist att f\u00f6rbandskartorna \u00e4r i en r\u00f6ra nu men m\u00f6rkaste Donbass har v\u00e4l alltid varit rebellstarkt f\u00f6rsvar?
\nKriget \u00e4r egentligen slut om Ukraina efter st\u00f6ten ned mot Azov, och samtidigt som dom befriar norra Luhansk, lyckas f\u00f6rm\u00e5 Donbass-rebellerna att byta sida s\u00e5 m\u00f6rkaste Donbass om inte faller blir m\u00f6jligt att p\u00e5b\u00f6rja befrielse av nu i vinter.<\/p>\n

Dags att flytta upp bubblaren sidbyte ett par hack p\u00e5 listan.<\/p>\n

Krim kommer ryssarna t\u00f6mma helt p\u00e5 egen hand n\u00e4r operat\u00f6rerna till 2000st sj\u00e4lvmordsdr\u00f6nare och himars- bes\u00e4ttningarna har f\u00f6rbr\u00e5k innan de dagliga genomg\u00e5ngarna om vem som skall f\u00e5 sl\u00e5 ut dagens m\u00e5l, halv\u00f6n \u00e4r om\u00f6jlig att f\u00f6rsvara precis som Kherson var.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:23<\/h3>\n

Ukraina har officiellt g\u00e5tt ut med +10 000 d\u00f6da soldater s\u00e5 50 000st inklusive s\u00e5rade \u00e4r v\u00e4l rimligt.
\nCivilbefolkningen i Ukraina \u2013 d\u00e4r har du etniskt rensning i fortfarande ockuperade omr\u00e5den, jag tror det \u00e4r hundratusentals nu.
\nSen alla d\u00f6da i LPR och DPR, till exempel deras soldater som ju \u00e4r Ukrainska medborgare\u2026<\/p>\n

Eftersom civila inte s\u00e4nker f\u00f6rm\u00e5gan b\u00f6r man nog h\u00e5lla sig till milit\u00e4ra f\u00f6rluster, v\u00e4l?
\nEller \u00e4r det ok\u00e4nsligt att t\u00e4nka s\u00e5?<\/p>\n

F\u00f6r ryssarnas del \u2013 100 000 d\u00f6da och n\u00e5gra hundratusen s\u00e5rade i alla dess former. 10ggr fler d\u00f6da s\u00e5ledes.
\nVi vet att UA rapporterar mycket konservativt.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:56<\/h3>\n

Sitter och klurar p\u00e5 den kritiska massan, Ukraina fick l\u00f6s +8 man\u00f6verbrigader fr\u00e5n Kherson och kanske beh\u00e5ller 3st f\u00f6r f\u00f6rsvar eller \u00f6verg\u00e5ng?<\/p>\n

4-5 har g\u00e5tt till Bakhmut s\u00e5 d\u00e5 \u00e4r det alla f\u00f6rband fr\u00e5n Kherson i aktiv front igen (men s\u00e5 f\u00f6rflyttades dom ju inte).<\/p>\n

Det frigjordes ett g\u00e4ng man\u00f6verbrigader n\u00e4r Izyum f\u00f6ll men, inte alla deltar i sv\u00e4ngd\u00f6rren tror jag.<\/p>\n

Sen \u00e4r m\u00e5nga territorialf\u00f6rband nu idag att anse som infanteribrigad, dom har stridserfarenhet och \u00e4r utrustade och kan r\u00e4knas in i totalen.<\/p>\n

Jag tror dom har kapacitet att anfalla \u00f6verallt \ud83d\ude03<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:43<\/h2>\n

Blir inte riktigt klok p\u00e5 denna video.<\/p>\n

Rysk st\u00e4llning \u00e4r till h\u00f6ger i bild.<\/p>\n

Dom snurrar runt framf\u00f6r den i cirklar?
\nJag kan f\u00f6rst\u00e5 r\u00f6relsen f\u00f6r att undvika en fulltr\u00e4ff artilleri men cirklarna, \u00e4r det f\u00f6r att ryssarna inte har n\u00e5gon n\u00e4r-PV?<\/p>\n

Inte vanlig doktrin f\u00f6r ett mekanfall men n\u00e5gon som ser logiken?<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/Militarylandnet\/status\/1600921628594311168?s=20&t=HnAYmsd3iDxcksitjAvbIQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:10<\/h2>\n

Ukraina har formerat en ny mekaniserad brigad. I fullt krig har dom allts\u00e5 kunnat utrusta en till mekaniserad brigad ut\u00f6ver det dom redan har, s\u00e5 d\u00e4r j\u00e4ttebesegrade \u00e4r dom d\u00e5 inte.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/Militarylandnet\/status\/1600576756469088278?s=20&t=HnAYmsd3iDxcksitjAvbIQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:16 Tror ni Ukraina tar en sida ur sovjetiska stridsplanen mot norra flanken och anfaller p\u00e5 juldagen eller n\u00e4r nu 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