{"id":7354,"date":"2023-01-08T08:36:14","date_gmt":"2023-01-08T07:36:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-01-08\/"},"modified":"2023-01-08T08:36:14","modified_gmt":"2023-01-08T07:36:14","slug":"2023-01-08","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-01-08\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-01-08"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:06<\/h2>\n

F\u00f6rs\u00f6ker hitta tecken p\u00e5 offensiv men r\u00e4tt d\u00e5ligt med det, f\u00f6rberedelser har vi m\u00e5nga av men d\u00e4r tar det stopp. Till exempel ny f\u00e4rg p\u00e5 tejp har s\u00e5 h\u00e4r l\u00e5ngt varit en sen f\u00f6rberedelse inf\u00f6r offensiva operationer.<\/p>\n

Ett annat tecken brukar vara n\u00e4r opsec t\u00e4cket l\u00e4gger sig och det har vi v\u00e4l haft n\u00e5n typ av r\u00e4tt l\u00e4nge s\u00e5 ingen indikation.<\/p>\n

Indirekt bek\u00e4mpning av baser har tagit fart rej\u00e4lt och \u00e4r v\u00e4derberoende, dom samlas i st\u00f6rre f\u00f6rl\u00e4ggningar pga. elf\u00f6rs\u00f6rjningen och blir tacksamma m\u00e5l s\u00e5 inget direkt tecken p\u00e5 offensiv.<\/p>\n

F\u00f6rlusterna av pansar t\u00e4nkte man signalerade n\u00e5got men sen kom information om Soledar och att dom satt in pansar.
\nF\u00f6rbek\u00e4mpning av ryss i grop verkar fortg\u00e5 med h\u00f6g intensitet, s\u00e5 ocks\u00e5 spaningsstriderna.
\nCounter-artillery likas\u00e5, r\u00e4tt h\u00f6g niv\u00e5 p\u00e5 f\u00f6rlorat artilleri f\u00f6r ryssarna.<\/p>\n

Sitter och funderar p\u00e5 om det sista vi ser innan en start \u00e4r en insats mot flygbaser?
\nInte Engels utan de frontn\u00e4ra med armeflyg och flyg?
\nHoppar man p\u00e5 dom med massinsats av dr\u00f6nare och HIMARS f\u00e5r man bort flyget precis innan offensivstart?<\/p>\n

Jag har otroligt sv\u00e5rt att se att Ukraina skulle f\u00f6rsitta m\u00f6jligheten till en vinteroffensiv, ologiskt och h\u00f6g sannolikhet f\u00f6r att dom g\u00f6r vad dom kan i vinter. Kanske har tidsplanen glidit pga. ryska anfall, var ju n\u00e5gra veckor sedan Ukraina meddelade oss att ryssarna skulle g\u00e5 p\u00e5 vinteroffensiv och nu har dom sl\u00e4ngt in utrotningshotade VDV i Bakhmut och Soledar.
\nMan f\u00e5r ju gratis d\u00f6d rysk elitsoldat d\u00e4r som inte kan g\u00e5 i f\u00f6rsvar n\u00e5n annanstans.<\/p>\n

Norra Luhansk verkar vara i konstant r\u00f6relse och Ukraina arbetar sig fram\u00e5t, gissningen \u00e4r att det \u00e4r en f\u00f6rstalinje och r\u00e4tt tomt bakom hela v\u00e4gen till NS linje genom Starobilsk d\u00e4r VDV sitter och v\u00e4rmer sig.
\nOch sen en V\u00d6 linje genom Luhansk som ocks\u00e5 befolkas av VDV.<\/p>\n

Rysk stridsledning har s\u00e5ledes prioriterat f\u00f6rsvaret av norra Luhansk, varf\u00f6r d\u00e5?
\nF\u00f6rmodligen pga. att dom skulle f\u00f6rlora LPR och Ukraina n\u00e4rmar sig staden Luhansk?
\nDet andra \u00e4r NS transportv\u00e4gar\/j\u00e4rnv\u00e4gar + underh\u00e5llshubar utanf\u00f6r Ukrainas landgr\u00e4ns som dom d\u00e5 n\u00e5r med l\u00e5ngskjutande allt och infiltration.
\nNu \u00e4r inte det en game changer idag f\u00f6r Rostov-na-Don \u00e4r nog en enda stor dep\u00e5 men \u00f6ver tid blir det sv\u00e5rt att k\u00f6ra ned nytt pansar och manskap p\u00e5 den NS underh\u00e5llsv\u00e4gen\/j\u00e4rnv\u00e4gen och m\u00f6rkaste Donbass och Krim blir lika sv\u00e5rt att underh\u00e5lla som Kherson (\u00f6ver tid\u2026).<\/p>\n

Vid s\u00f6dra fronten f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntar sig i alla fall ryssarna en offensiv men samtidigt p\u00e5g\u00e5r det n\u00e5nting mycket m\u00e4rkligt d\u00e4r \u2013 dom har dels retirerat fr\u00e5n floden Dnepr i omg\u00e5ngar. Det finns fortfarande f\u00f6rband d\u00e4r men inte i den m\u00e4ngd man hade kunnat f\u00f6rv\u00e4nta sig.<\/p>\n

Det andra \u00e4r att dom k\u00f6rt f\u00f6rband fr\u00e5n s\u00f6dra fronten till Bakhmut-Siversk linjen f\u00f6r att st\u00f6tta anfallen d\u00e4r. De mest meningsl\u00f6sa av anfall vi sett i hela kriget. Kan n\u00e4stan bara vara f\u00f6r att ryssarna inte kan g\u00f6ra n\u00e5got annat?
\nDom skulle ju bara kunna retirera till den gamla stillest\u00e5ndslinjen p\u00e5 rysk sida och har ett enormt bef\u00e4stningssystem men dom offrar allt f\u00f6r att ta n\u00e5gra kilometer till fram\u00e5t till denna f\u00f6rsvarslinje.
\nSamtidigt som dom avfolkar till del s\u00f6dra fronten s\u00e5 har dom anfallit borta vid Vuhledar och det kan bara vara oblastkrigandet som sp\u00f6kar.<\/p>\n

Att dom fortfarande h\u00e5ller p\u00e5 med det kan ocks\u00e5 bara betyda att Putin trott att han haft en f\u00f6rhandlingsl\u00f6sning d\u00e4r v\u00e4st hade \u00f6vergett Ukraina om dom inte avstod lite land. Senast sen h\u00f6st var ju det p\u00e5 tapeten fortfarande innan Frankrike och Tyskland b\u00f6rja skina som solar och man riktigt idoliserade dom.<\/p>\n

H\u00e4r ser vi nog hur stor skada man kan \u00e5stadkomma som ledare i det fria v\u00e4st om man inte \u00e4r f\u00f6rsiktig.<\/p>\n

Och dom gr\u00e4ver skyttegrava i Melitopol vilket signalerar att dom t\u00e4nkt sig f\u00f6rsvara staden.<\/p>\n

Nu n\u00e4r EU sent omsider vaknat och lyckats f\u00e5 in f\u00f6rskoleklassen i n\u00e5n typ av matk\u00f6 s\u00e5 \u00e4r egentligen den sista pusselbiten lagd h\u00e4r. IFV var v\u00e4l alltid viktigare \u00e4n MBT d\u00e5 moddade T72 inte \u00e4r s\u00e5 dumma men M113 och Kirpi lagom kul.<\/p>\n

Symbolv\u00e4rdet av Bradley, AMX och Marder \u00e4r h\u00f6gt men inte lava-varmt diplomatiskt \u2013 en snygg medelv\u00e4g.
\nS\u00e5 sm\u00e5ningom kommer MBT f\u00f6lja h\u00e4r och b\u00e4gge systemen finns v\u00e4l f\u00f6rbandssatta till v\u00e5roffensiven kan man gissa.<\/p>\n

P\u00e5 film ser man v\u00e4ldigt m\u00e5nga BMP-3 och senare BTR ist\u00e4ller f\u00f6r BTR-60 och BMP-1, man ser ocks\u00e5 \u00f6verv\u00e4ldigande T72 ist\u00e4llet f\u00f6r \u00e4ldre vagnar s\u00e5 Ukraina har nog gradvis bytt ut s\u00e4mre sovjetpansar mot nyare som dom er\u00f6vrat. Oryx har ju listat hundratals.<\/p>\n

Territorial har v\u00e4l f\u00e5tt de \u00e4ldre vagnarna som f\u00e5r st\u00e5 i f\u00f6rsvar vid befriad gr\u00e4ns?<\/p>\n

P\u00e5minner om denna fr\u00e5n Ukrainska Forbes och att Ukraina nu har 1:1.5 i stridsvagnar.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/FriaUkraina\/status\/1605485831984074752?s=20&t=NJMvpfWrmDho2j62VfsuWA<\/a><\/p>\n

Vinteroffensiven \u00e4r redan resurssatt och v\u00e5roffensiven \u00e4r p\u00e5 g\u00e5ng att resurss\u00e4ttas med v\u00e4stpansar och de sista \u00f6stsystemen f\u00e5r man gissa?<\/p>\n

Ryssland kan inte g\u00f6ra n\u00e5gonting, nedgr\u00e4vt pansar \u00e4r ett m\u00e5l, man f\u00f6ser in plutonen med dr\u00f6nargranater i f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkta v\u00e4rnet och sen s\u00e4tter man en 155mm i det s\u00e5 det kollapsar, man har ytbrisader av n\u00e5n ny typ som levererar d\u00f6d i hela v\u00e4rnsystem, allt p\u00e5 v\u00e4g hoppar armeflyg och flyg p\u00e5.
\nAllt frontn\u00e4ra bakre \u00e4r utsatt f\u00f6r l\u00e5ngskjutande vapen.
\nAllt l\u00e4ngre fr\u00e5n fronten kommer inte fram i tid om det skulle beh\u00f6vas.<\/p>\n

Ryssarnas enda spel dom har kvar \u00e4r egentligen att trycka in soldater i de defensiva linjerna snabbare \u00e4n vad dom sl\u00e5s ut och hoppas p\u00e5 att Ukraina inte f\u00e5r n\u00e5gra genombrott.
\nAnfallen vid Siversk-Bakhmut och oblastkrigandet \u00e4r vansinne men politiskt drivet.<\/p>\n

En v\u00e5roffensiv \u00e4r v\u00e4l mer typiskt ryskt \u2013 \u00f6ka v\u00e5ldet n\u00e4r niv\u00e5n p\u00e5 v\u00e5ldet inte fungerar. Man m\u00e5ste ju g\u00f6ra n\u00e5t och jag kan se logiken i det.<\/p>\n

V\u00e5roffensiven kan om\u00f6jligt \u00e5stadkomma n\u00e5got och kan egentligen bara f\u00f6rl\u00e4nga kriget men \u00e4r man diktator och kretsen runt diktatorn \u00e4r nog varje minut man slipper dingla i f\u00f6tterna fr\u00e5n en bensinmack v\u00e4rt m\u00e5nga f\u00f6rlorade liv, hur m\u00e5nga som helst egentligen.<\/p>\n

Det g\u00e4ller att st\u00e4nga d\u00f6rrarna f\u00f6r Putin och rysk stridsledning s\u00e5 dom till slut f\u00f6rst\u00e5r att det \u00e4r meningsl\u00f6st och f\u00f6rst\u00e5r inte Putin det f\u00f6rst\u00e5r alla oligarkerna och politikerna det.<\/p>\n

Nu h\u00e4nder v\u00e4l inget utan FSB medgivande s\u00e5 dom m\u00e5ste ocks\u00e5 f\u00f6rst\u00e5 att det \u00e4r l\u00f6nl\u00f6st.<\/p>\n

Vi \u00e4r kanske inte d\u00e4r \u00e4nnu men sanktionerna har varit bra och Ukrainas krigf\u00f6ring likas\u00e5. <\/p>\n

Sista \u00f6ppningen var egentligen att v\u00e4st skulle vackla och det verkar vara slut med det f\u00f6rutsatt att det inte dubbelspelas av de skinande ikonerna Macron och Scholz men det skulle man ju aldrig kunna tro, dom \u00e4r gudar.<\/p>\n

Brist p\u00e5 materiel var v\u00e4l en annan och d\u00e4r \u00e4r det ocks\u00e5 signalpolitik av den h\u00f6gre skolan.
\nEgentligen bara en tidsfr\u00e5ga innan Putin eller n\u00e5n annan ger upp h\u00e4r och l\u00e4mnar den avl\u00e4gsna provinsen ukraina med sina underm\u00e4nniskor som inte l\u00e5ter sig straffexpeditioneras som dom skulle.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:12<\/h2>\n

SVT bekr\u00e4ftar att samma personer dyker upp i olika sammanhang med putin.
\nDet var inte deras vinkel men det \u00e4r det dom s\u00e4ger och har bevisat \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.svt.se\/nyheter\/utrikes\/ai-tekniken-visar-kameleont-kvinnan-vid-putins-sida-ar-olika-personer<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:00<\/h3>\n

F\u00f6r att kunna st\u00f6ra ryssarna safe space s\u00e5 beh\u00f6ver Ukraina ta terr\u00e4ng i vinteroffensiven.
\nDet beh\u00f6ver vara en d\u00e5lig start f\u00f6r ryssland i deras v\u00e5roffensiv, s\u00e5 d\u00e5lig som m\u00f6jligt.
\nHelst ska Krim vara avskuret och man st\u00e5r och lobbar in himars p\u00e5 allt som r\u00f6r sig p\u00e5 krim fortfarande en bit s\u00f6der om melitopol.
\nBl\u00f6da ut den ryska armen g\u00e5r inte f\u00f6r putin trycker in med blod.
\nTiden \u00e4r inte ukrainas fiende men det kan nog gynna Putin om han lyckas h\u00e5lla nuvarande terr\u00e4ng \u201dbara\u201d genom att offra liv.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:18<\/h2>\n

V\u00e4rlden har iallafall tolkat det som att Ulf K lovat skicka Archer. Tvetydig svenska som l\u00e4mnar alla d\u00f6rrar \u00f6ppna \u00e4r h\u00f6grisk n\u00e4r det sen \u00f6vers\u00e4tts och skall tolkas av s\u00e5na som inte \u00e4r vana vid det.<\/p>\n

Nu har Sverige lovat Archer till Ukraina \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:06 F\u00f6rs\u00f6ker hitta tecken p\u00e5 offensiv men r\u00e4tt d\u00e5ligt med det, f\u00f6rberedelser har vi m\u00e5nga av men d\u00e4r tar det […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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