{"id":7368,"date":"2023-01-15T09:43:06","date_gmt":"2023-01-15T08:43:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-01-15\/"},"modified":"2023-01-15T09:43:06","modified_gmt":"2023-01-15T08:43:06","slug":"2023-01-15","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-01-15\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-01-15"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:16<\/h2>\n

F\u00f6r att s\u00e4tta bristen p\u00e5 nyckelkompetens lite i perspektiv, r\u00e4tt h\u00f6ga officersf\u00f6rluster.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/FriaUkraina\/status\/1614524593657761792?s=20&t=SLOosS9uEtB3icU7N5udOA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:30<\/h2>\n

Det blev v\u00e4l 41 robotar i denna v\u00e4ndan? Det var ett robotanfall som sammanf\u00f6ll med all-out war mellan Vuhledar \u2013 Kreminna och b\u00f6r s\u00e5ledes har varit maximalt vad ryssarna klarade?
\n-En halvering mot tidigare +90 g\u00e5ngerna innan jul.<\/p>\n

Det strids fortfarande kring Soledar, Ukraina h\u00e5ller stationen Sil och g\u00e5r man v\u00e4ster d\u00e4rom \u00e4r det enorma skottf\u00e4lt igen, en ravin, samh\u00e4llen osv. Det finns en n\u00e4sta f\u00f6rsvarslinje strax v\u00e4ster om Soledar \u00e4r mitt stalltips. Allt beh\u00f6ver inte vara h\u00f6gl\u00e4nt terr\u00e4ng, en ravin med ett stort \u00f6ppet f\u00e4lt framf\u00f6r \u00e4r fantastisk defensiv position.<\/p>\n

Lite oklart hur det ser ut i Krasna Hora och Bakhmutka men s\u00e5 l\u00e4nge dom \u00e4r i ukrainsk hand \u00e4r det h\u00f6ga kn\u00e4n rakt \u00f6ver f\u00e4lten som g\u00e4ller mot Bakhmut om man vill komma in norrifr\u00e5n och underh\u00e5llsv\u00e4gar finns det kvar till Bakhmut.<\/p>\n

Man kan inte heller \u201drulla upp\u201d f\u00f6rsvarslinjen norrut f\u00f6r det \u00e4r isolerade samh\u00e4llen med \u00f6ppna f\u00e4lt emellan s\u00e5 upp till Siversk kommer dom inte heller.<\/p>\n

Sammantaget s\u00e5 har dom inte uppn\u00e5tt n\u00e5got av v\u00e4rde med att s\u00e4tta in sina elitf\u00f6rband. F\u00f6rlusterna tyder v\u00e4l p\u00e5 fortsatta offensiva operationer. Det \u00e4r n\u00e4stan Lysychansk all over again d\u00e4r det beskrevs som nyckelstad och krigsavg\u00f6rande. Jag tror inte f\u00f6rsvarslinjen som helhet sviktar \u00e4ven om stationen Sil faller och omr\u00e5det kring den.<\/p>\n

Denna ryska all-out offensiv kan mycket v\u00e4l har varit f\u00f6r att f\u00f6rekomma den ukrainska vinteroffensiven och den kan ocks\u00e5 ha varit inf\u00f6r Rammsteinm\u00f6tet f\u00f6r att f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka f\u00f6rm\u00e5 l\u00e4nder att inte st\u00e4lla upp \u2013 man visar upp rysk r\u00e5-styrka.
\nUkraina \u00e5 sin sida har tj\u00e4nat p\u00e5 detta och har kanske avh\u00e5llit sig fr\u00e5n spektakul\u00e4ra offensiva operationer pga. m\u00f6tet (tror egentligen inte det och tror att dom bara har fullt upp med ryssarna just nu).<\/p>\n

Rammsteinm\u00f6tet b\u00f6rjar segla upp som betydelsefullt, det \u00e4r d\u00e5 man kommer offentligg\u00f6ra vad man kommit \u00f6verens om senaste veckorna och som fick Macron att f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka springa f\u00f6re alla s\u00e5 han n\u00e4stan snubblade och f\u00f6ll. Iallafal l\u00e4nderna i JEF har visat stor vilja att donera v\u00e4stpansar nu och om ni minns Zelenskys m\u00f6te i USA s\u00e5 var det flyg fr\u00e5n JEF l\u00e4nderna samtidigt i luften, n\u00e5gon i tr\u00e5den som postade det. Ukraina meddelade ocks\u00e5 efter m\u00f6tet att det var mycket p\u00e5 g\u00e5ng och att dom skulle f\u00e5 sina offensiva vapen.<\/p>\n

Macron h\u00e5ller sig ganska tyst, det \u00e4r egentligen bara \u00c5len som fortfarande driver linjen att man m\u00e5ste ha en \u00f6ppen kommunikation med Putin, att f\u00f6rhandlingar \u00e4r viktigt och att Tyskland som land m\u00e5ste t\u00e4nka mycket l\u00e4nge innan man b\u00f6rjar fundera p\u00e5 stridsvagnar f\u00f6r att sen utreda och till sist skicka om n\u00e5gra \u00e5r. <\/p>\n

Om ni minns Rwanda s\u00e5 finns det en mycket k\u00e4nd video d\u00e4r n\u00e5n White-house n\u00e5nting snurrar in sig i om det \u00e4r genocide eller inte och reportrarna v\u00e4grar ge sig, d\u00e5 hade 600 000 eller s\u00e5 m\u00f6rdats. Den etniska rensningen i Rwanda slutade f\u00f6rst n\u00e4r Paul Kagames rebeller intog hela landet. Dom gjorde s\u00e5 gott dom kunde men det var f\u00f6r lite f\u00f6r sent. Fransm\u00e4nnen hj\u00e4lpte f\u00f6rst aggressor-gruppen med vapen i n\u00e5n covert-operation och sen n\u00e4r rebellerna b\u00f6rjade n\u00e4rma sig Kigali d\u00e5 fl\u00f6g fransm\u00e4nnen ut den skyldiga eliten med sina v\u00e4skor fulla med guld och dollarbuntar.<\/p>\n

Sen har vi Jugoslavienkriget d\u00e4r Europa h\u00f6ll p\u00e5 i flera \u00e5r och br\u00e5kade om protestnoten och hur den skulle skrivas samtidigt som stad efter stad etniskt rensades. Till sist klev USA in och l\u00f6ste konflikten men alldeles f\u00f6r sent (en mycket grov avsiktlig f\u00f6renkling).<\/p>\n

FN lyckas s\u00e4llan i \u00f6ppna krig och det \u00e4r inte helt ovanligt att dom har n\u00e5n bas som alla civila flyr till och sen n\u00e4r aggressorn omringat den ger dom sig av. Varje g\u00e5ng hade det b\u00e4sta varit om de civila s\u00f6kt skydd i skogarna ist\u00e4llet. Man s\u00e4ljer in ett skydd som inte finns. <\/p>\n

Historiskt har EU\/USA agerat mycket snabbt h\u00e4r i Ukrainakriget, mycket snabbt, men det \u00e4r en r\u00e4tt tydlig skillnad p\u00e5 vilka som drar och vilka som bromsar just nu.<\/p>\n

N\u00e4r n\u00e5gon s\u00e5 pass stor som Tyskland bromsar d\u00e5 g\u00f6r det skillnad. Att dom inte till\u00e5ter tredje land att skicka Leo2 g\u00f6r ju att Ukraina inte f\u00e5r Leo2 och d\u00e5 f\u00f6rl\u00e4nger det kriget, \u00e4r ett antal l\u00e4nder som lovat att bidra med ett kompani var nu. Det finns m\u00e5nga versioner p\u00e5 den h\u00e4r historien s\u00e5klart men kan UK skicka Challenger 2 p\u00e5 en vecka d\u00e5 kan v\u00e4l Tyskland skicka Leo2 p\u00e5 en vecka, eller hur? Framf\u00f6rallt kan dom l\u00e5ta andra l\u00e4nder s\u00e4nka sin f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga om dom vill och l\u00e5ta dom skicka Leo2. Men det g\u00f6r dom inte.<\/p>\n

Sen att dom vill ha fortsatt \u00f6ppen kommunikation med Putin g\u00f6r ju att Putin fortfarande tror att Oblastkrigandet kan fungera. H\u00e4r f\u00e5r man v\u00e4l i och f\u00f6r sig ge Tyskland att Oblastkrigandet som det ser ut just nu f\u00f6rkortar kriget s\u00e5 lite oavsiktlig hj\u00e4lp till Ukraina har dom allt \u00e5stadkommit.<\/p>\n

Frankrike har ju Macron s\u00e5 dom kommer naturligtvis f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka toppa Challenger 2 mycket snart, han \u00e4r v\u00e4l sj\u00e4lva definitionen av en t\u00e4vlingsm\u00e4nniska och UK har precis kastat en vid handske framf\u00f6r f\u00f6tterna p\u00e5 honom samtidigt som dom st\u00e5r och viftar med ett r\u00f6tt skynke en bit och ett banderoll som l\u00e4ser att USA r\u00e4ddade dom i WW2 f\u00f6r att dom byggde sin f\u00f6rsvarslinje p\u00e5 fel plats.<\/p>\n

Nu tror jag nog att Rammsteinm\u00f6tet kommer l\u00f6sa allt n\u00e4r det g\u00e4ller offensiva vapen f\u00f6r det \u00e4r f\u00f6r l\u00e5ngt g\u00e5nget och tyskarna kommer ge sig till sist. Det f\u00f6r\u00e4ndrar inte deras intention och vad dom kokade ihop p\u00e5 senaste partim\u00f6tet som Scholz tyckte det var viktigt att v\u00e4rlden fick veta med nyord som \u201duncool\u201d.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r n\u00e4stan vindstilla och fl\u00f6jeln h\u00e4nger men en po\u00e4ng v\u00e4rd att g\u00f6ra \u00e4r att jag tror att Tyskland f\u00f6rs\u00e4mrar sin relation med USA och \u00f6vriga EU mycket kraftigt h\u00e4r och att det kommer synas m\u00e5nga \u00e5r fram\u00f6ver.<\/p>\n

Det finns ingen naturlag att alla m\u00e5ste lyssna p\u00e5 Tyskland, k\u00f6pa tyskt eller s\u00e4lja el till Tyskland, dom kanske f\u00e5r sitta i m\u00f6rkret med sin gr\u00f6na energirevolution fram\u00f6ver och sina pyramider med os\u00e4ljbara produkter? Israel och Sydafrika \u00e5kte ju p\u00e5 det, konsumenter \u00e4r l\u00e4ttfotade.<\/p>\n

Frankrike verkar klara sig f\u00f6r att Macron har en bra f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga att g\u00e5 p\u00e5 slak lina, det landet hade jag nog m\u00f6rkare tankar om \u00e4n Tyskland.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:29<\/h3>\n

T\u00e4nker man i termer om skydd blir nog Sverige framtr\u00e4dande i den norra flanken, vi st\u00e5r f\u00f6r st\u00f6d till Finland och Baltikum i h\u00e4ndelse av krig.
\nPolen d\u00e4runder som klarar att f\u00f6rsvara sig sj\u00e4lva och sen Ukraina med ett f\u00f6rsvar lika starkt som resten av europa.
\nDom h\u00e4r l\u00e4nderna kommer ju ha ett t\u00e4tt samarbete framledes och vi har redan JEF med UK.<\/p>\n

I \u00e4mnet f\u00f6rsvaret av \u00f6st \u00e4r v\u00e4l Tyskland snudd p\u00e5 obsolet redan idag?<\/p>\n

Det var trist att UK l\u00e4mnade EU f\u00f6r dom var en moderat r\u00f6st tillsammans med Sverige bla. och Tyskland har v\u00e4l drivit p\u00e5 f\u00f6r mer integrerat EU. <\/p>\n

F\u00f6r min del skulle det vara en episk win om EU gick tillbaka till att bara omfatta fri r\u00f6rlighet, fri handel, gemensamt f\u00f6rsvarsintresse (ej en EU arme) och att individuella l\u00e4nders sj\u00e4lvbest\u00e4mmande st\u00e4rktes ist\u00e4llet f\u00f6r EUs.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:55<\/h2>\n

Sl\u00e4pper det i Kreminna kan det fort bli v\u00e4ldigt sp\u00e4nt hos rysk stridsledning. Speciellt eftersom Ukraina har byggt upp offensiv kapacitet vid S\u00f6dra fronten OCH enligt Gregg slussat in reserver vid Soledar\/Bakhmut fr\u00e5n elitf\u00f6rbanden.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:47<\/h3>\n

Dom har flyttat en del f\u00f6rband fr\u00e5n S\u00f6dra fronten men det skall ryssarna ocks\u00e5 ha gjort.
\nSen l\u00e4ste jag precis att ryssarna st\u00e4rkt upp s\u00f6dra fronten, sv\u00e5rt att veta.<\/p>\n

Jag t\u00e4nker mer p\u00e5 att den kritiska massan \u00e4r till ukrainas sida s\u00e5 f\u00e5r dom problem i norra Luhansk och sen vid Bakhmut\/Soledar s\u00e5 \u00e4r dom tvungna att f\u00f6rsvaga s\u00f6dra fronten ytterligare eller iallafall inte f\u00f6rst\u00e4rka den om ukraina trycker p\u00e5 d\u00e4r.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:16 F\u00f6r att s\u00e4tta bristen p\u00e5 nyckelkompetens lite i perspektiv, r\u00e4tt h\u00f6ga officersf\u00f6rluster. https:\/\/twitter.com\/FriaUkraina\/status\/1614524593657761792?s=20&t=SLOosS9uEtB3icU7N5udOA 10:30 Det blev v\u00e4l 41 robotar […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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https:\/\/twitter.com\/FriaUkraina\/status\/1614524593657761792?s=20&t=SLOosS9uEtB3icU7N5udOA 10:30 Det blev v\u00e4l 41 robotar […]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-01-15\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Johan No.1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2023-01-15T08:43:06+00:00\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"johan No.1\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Skriven av\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"johan No.1\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Ber\u00e4knad l\u00e4stid\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"8 minuter\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" 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