{"id":7530,"date":"2023-02-11T08:42:52","date_gmt":"2023-02-11T07:42:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-02-11\/"},"modified":"2023-02-11T08:42:52","modified_gmt":"2023-02-11T07:42:52","slug":"2023-02-11","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-02-11\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-02-11"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:02 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Fick bekr\u00e4ftat att det var 14th Spetznaz brigade som tagit storstryk ocks\u00e5 vid Vuhledar tillsammans med 155th och 40th Marine brigades och sen \u00e4r v\u00e4l 72nd brigade ocks\u00e5 slut kan man gissa. Det \u00e4r r\u00f6rigt med f\u00f6rbanden\u2026<\/p>\n

DPR f\u00f6rband har ocks\u00e5 haft h\u00f6ga f\u00f6rluster och det \u00e4r deras (relativa) elitenheter som rykt d\u00e4r.<\/p>\n

Jag st\u00e5r absolut fast i det vi b\u00f6rjade diskutera redan 6 Januari att ryssarna sl\u00e4nger in sina b\u00e4sta kvarvarande f\u00f6rband h\u00e4r och det \u00e4r oerh\u00f6rt positivt \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

Idag har vi ett nytt rekord i f\u00f6rluster och det \u00e4r ju n\u00e4stan s\u00e5 man b\u00f6rjar fundera p\u00e5 om vi f\u00e5r r\u00e4tt i v\u00e5r gissning f\u00f6r n\u00e5gra dagar sedan att vi n\u00e5r 150 000 till \u00e5rsdagen \ud83d\ude00
\n(man kanske m\u00e5ste f\u00e5 in siffrorna f\u00f6r den 24 ocks\u00e5, s\u00e5 den 25 Februari, det \u00e4r trots allt 14 dagar kvar och dom l\u00e4r v\u00e4l \u00f6ka gasen snarare \u00e4n minska h\u00e4r?)<\/p>\n

Vid Kreminna och norrut vet vi att ett g\u00e4ng VDV regementen g\u00e5r f\u00f6rst och att det \u00e4r intensiva strider. Vi vet ocks\u00e5 att UA 10th brigade genomf\u00f6rde ett motanfall med minst kompani runt Bilohorivka \u2013 det var mycket ov\u00e4ntat faktiskt och signalerar styrka fr\u00e5n UA.<\/p>\n

Faktum \u00e4r att dom gjort ett lyckat motanfall vid Vuhledar och mindre konsolideringar vid Bakhmut och Soledar, men vid Bakhmut \u00e4r det ocks\u00e5 taktiska retr\u00e4tter. Dom sl\u00e4pper ingenting utan strid h\u00e4r.<\/p>\n

Sen fick vi till oss att ytterligare tre (3) brigader g\u00e5tt och d\u00f6tt framf\u00f6r Donetsk, det var Kriegsforscher som \u00e4r en p\u00e5litlig k\u00e4lla, och UA veteran tydligen. Glidit lite under min radar.<\/p>\n

Inte att f\u00f6rgl\u00f6mma de 8st BTG som gick mot noll under anfallen vid s\u00f6dra fronten, eftersom dom f\u00f6rde upp 8st till\u2026<\/p>\n

Eller de enorma f\u00f6rluster dom forts\u00e4tter att ta i Bakhmut och Soledar och d\u00e4r \u00e4r det VDV + n\u00e5gra \u201delitf\u00f6rband\u201d till, skulle vilja veta vilka\u2026<\/p>\n

V\u00e4ntar vi p\u00e5 en stor offensiv, vad \u00e4r d\u00e5 det h\u00e4r \u2013 ett tiotal brigader fr\u00e5n det b\u00e4sta dom hade kvar utpl\u00e5nade?<\/p>\n

Men det skall bli intressant att se vad Ukraina sl\u00e4pper l\u00f6s fr\u00e5n f\u00f6rr\u00e5den n\u00e4r (om) ryssarna \u00f6kar intensiteten kraftigt.
\nVi har sett hur det kan g\u00e5 vid Vuhledar men vi har nog inte sett allt \u00e4nnu.<\/p>\n

Det finns \u2013 tungstensregn, m\u00e5lstyrd ammunition till 155mm, 2500 sj\u00e4lvmordsdr\u00f6nare och m\u00e5lstyrd ammunition till markattacken. Sen har vi alla luftbrisader och vanligt artilleri som leds in med dr\u00f6nare med wizardlevel-tr\u00e4ffs\u00e4kerhet.<\/p>\n

SOF ligger och v\u00e4ntar i hela norra Luhansk och avst\u00e5ndslagda minor \u00e4r v\u00e4l om inte utlagda s\u00e5 i alla fall har dom listan med koordinater p\u00e5 vart dom skall skjuta.<\/p>\n

Infanteriet har sina n\u00e4rPV, minf\u00e4lten \u00e4r utlagda och i linje tv\u00e5 eller tre st\u00e5r stridsvagn och v\u00e4ntar p\u00e5 m\u00e5l l\u00e4tt uttr\u00e5kade.<\/p>\n

Ukraina kommer absolut tvingas till taktiska retr\u00e4tter p\u00e5 n\u00e5t frontavsnitt men ryssarna kommer ta geologiskt sv\u00e5rbegripliga m\u00e4ngder d\u00f6da om dom planerar att \u00f6ka intensiteten mycket kraftigt i sin offensiv h\u00e4r.<\/p>\n

Norra Luhansk \u00e4r lite trist men om ett par veckor har dom rimligen slut p\u00e5 gas d\u00e4r f\u00f6r v\u00e4dret st\u00e5r p\u00e5 ukrainas l\u00f6nelista.<\/p>\n

Ni s\u00e5g filmen p\u00e5 kompaniet som hade genomg\u00e5ng inf\u00f6r sitt anfall ig\u00e5r, man har bara s\u00e5 mycket information och den \u00e4r aldrig fullst\u00e4ndig. Man k\u00f6r p\u00e5 enligt tr\u00e4ning och f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker anpassa till situationen s\u00e5 gott det g\u00e5r. Inget \u00e4r enkelt och det \u00e4r sk1tsv\u00e5rt att f\u00e5 ett kompani att upptr\u00e4da p\u00e5 ett vinnande (f\u00e4ltm\u00e4ssigt) s\u00e4tt f\u00f6r att inte tala om en bataljon eller en brigad. Misslyckas man d\u00f6r man.<\/p>\n

Ryssarna klara ju knappt att k\u00f6ra rakt fram utan att k\u00f6ra \u00f6ver varandra och Ukrainas dito \u00e4r nog drillade i bataljons anfall minst och klarar combined arms warfare i realtid. Dom har ocks\u00e5 informationsinh\u00e4mtning i realtid med dr\u00f6nare och f\u00f6rmodligen ocks\u00e5 gott underr\u00e4ttelsel\u00e4ge innan start fr\u00e5n allseende \u00f6gat.<\/p>\n

Skillnaden \u00e4r astronomisk och jag t\u00e4nkte p\u00e5 hur pass mycket b\u00e4ttre dom \u00e4r \u00e4n v\u00e5ra slut\u00f6vningar mot slutet av v\u00e4rnplikten och framf\u00f6rallt att dom i realtid vet hur det ser ut hos motst\u00e5ndarlaget, det g\u00f6r hela skillnaden.<\/p>\n

Ryska landslaget i inkompetens tar just nu s\u00e5 pass enorma f\u00f6rluster att det \u00e4r sv\u00e5rt att ta in faktiskt, jag tror att Kriegsforscher fokuserade p\u00e5 ett omr\u00e5de i sin OSINT och rimligen har det varit ytterligare anfall framf\u00f6r Donetsk (hela det omr\u00e5det t\u00e4nker jag p\u00e5) som g\u00e5tt lika illa, eftersom inget r\u00f6rt sig och Liveuamap har massa r\u00f6da gev\u00e4rscirklar \u00f6verallt. Man kan s\u00e4kert l\u00e4gga 3st brigader till de tidigare f\u00f6rlusterna f\u00f6r att t\u00e4cka in hela omr\u00e5det.<\/p>\n

Just nu \u00e4r operation Getflykt (eller snarare operation v\u00e4gra krig) och palatskupp r\u00e4tt h\u00f6gt p\u00e5 min lista. Jag har mycket sv\u00e5rt att se hur det h\u00e4r kan g\u00e5 obem\u00e4rkt f\u00f6rbi. Ryska milbloggare \u00e4r helt vansinniga \u00f6ver Bakhmut h\u00e4r till exempel.
\nG\u00e5r intensiteten mot noll inom de n\u00e4rmaste veckorna \u00e4r det f\u00f6r att armen v\u00e4grar krig men det har vi inte sett \u00e4nnu, dom g\u00f6r fortfarande sitt b\u00e4sta f\u00f6r att d\u00f6.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r lite tidigt men r\u00e4tt snart kan vi nog sl\u00e5 i gongongen att det inte blir allm\u00e4n mobilisering, det \u00e4r 11 Februari\u2026<\/p>\n

D\u00e5 beh\u00f6vs det ingen forskarhatt f\u00f6r att f\u00f6rst\u00e5 att ryssarna k\u00f6rt slut p\u00e5 sina dugliga f\u00f6rband och har inget att h\u00e5lla emot med n\u00e4r UA g\u00e5r p\u00e5 offensiv. Sommar 2023 blir det fred i v\u00e5r tid igen.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:15 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+1 (eller +150 000, skulle inte f\u00f6rv\u00e5na mig om din \u00f6nskan kommer att besannas).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:10 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

M\u00e5nga bra kommentarer \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

Sj\u00e4lva hade vi en total win idag, sex\u00e5ringen tog sig igenom halvtimmen med fotbollsspel i slutet p\u00e5 tr\u00e4ningen utan en tillstymmelse till gr\u00e5t och d\u00e5 l\u00e5g han p\u00e5 golvet tv\u00e5 g\u00e5nger, sopade undan benen p\u00e5 en motspelare som landade som en v\u00e5t s\u00e4ck med ett smack i golvet (d\u00e5 brukar han bli ledsen f\u00f6r deras skull f\u00f6r han \u00e4r fredlig) och fick ett par h\u00e5rda bollar p\u00e5 kroppen. Det var ett brett leende rakt igenom och han f\u00f6rstod vilka som var i hans lag och viket m\u00e5l han skulle skjuta p\u00e5 \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:23 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Chuck Pfarrer har tolkat generalstabens rapport om \u201din the vicinity of Kreminna\u201d som att UA \u00e4r i staden Kreminna.<\/p>\n

Han l\u00e4ser inte hela under\u00e4ttelsel\u00e4get innan han g\u00f6r sina analyser vilket \u00e4r r\u00e4tt uppseendev\u00e4ckande f\u00f6r han s\u00e4ljer in sig sj\u00e4lv som en stor strateg.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:02 \u2013 Johan No.1 Fick bekr\u00e4ftat att det var 14th Spetznaz brigade som tagit storstryk ocks\u00e5 vid Vuhledar tillsammans med 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