{"id":7617,"date":"2023-03-04T08:36:44","date_gmt":"2023-03-04T07:36:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-03-04\/"},"modified":"2023-03-04T08:36:44","modified_gmt":"2023-03-04T07:36:44","slug":"2023-03-04","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-03-04\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-03-04"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

09:29 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Nu r\u00f6r det sig p\u00e5 en plats till uppe i norra Luhansk Chernovopopivka (hur det nu stavas) som ligger norr om Kreminna. Hur \u00e4r det m\u00f6jligt?<\/p>\n

Svampbob som den general han \u00e4r misst\u00e4nkte ig\u00e5r att ryska laget dragit bort mycket fr\u00e5n norra Luhansk.
\nJag har h\u00f6rt om 6-7st brigader som k\u00f6rts s\u00f6derut inte mer.<\/p>\n

Det var r\u00e4tt samst\u00e4mmiga k\u00e4llor att det var 130 000 man och 1000st stridsvagnar som k\u00f6rts in i norra Luhansk inf\u00f6r vinteroffensiven. Nu kan det s\u00e5klart vara s\u00e5 att alla hade samma k\u00e4lla men Defmon har en skog med f\u00f6rbandsbeteckningar d\u00e4ruppe.<\/p>\n

Hade mycket av det k\u00f6rts s\u00f6derut hade vi v\u00e4l h\u00f6rt det rimligen, vi vet ju allt som k\u00f6rs in till Vuhledar, genom Mariupol och in till Bakhmut och s\u00e5 vidare. Defmon \u00e4r v\u00e4l iofs lite efter kring Bakhmut (f\u00f6r att han inte \u00e4ndrar p\u00e5 twitterrykten som undertecknad g\u00f6r vilket \u00e4r mycket sunt) men hade det varit stora truppf\u00f6rflyttningar fr\u00e5n norra Luhansk borde det v\u00e4l rimligen ha f\u00e5ngats upp ocks\u00e5 bland osintarna?<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r nog en och annan som kliar sig i huvudet just nu och undrar vad i hela helskotta det \u00e4r som p\u00e5g\u00e5r, f\u00f6rst kreminna-skogarna och nu denna ort.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r inte mycket till rysk offensiv, d\u00e4remot b\u00f6kar sig Ukraina fram\u00e5t bland 1000 stridsvagnar och 130 000st soldater.
\nEnligt tidigare \u00e4r det sandigare jordar d\u00e4ruppe och i skogarna blir det inte s\u00e5 gyttjigt samt att kylan h\u00e5ller i sig lite l\u00e4ngre.
\nF\u00f6rmodligen blir det en kontinuerligt krigande d\u00e4ruppe utan avbrott.<\/p>\n

Enligt tidigare s\u00e5 gissar jag att det \u00e4r d\u00e4r man kommer betatesta v\u00e4stpansaret mycket snart, allt verkar ju vara f\u00f6rbandssatt.<\/p>\n

Jag hade t\u00e4nkt mig Suomusalmi 2.0 och dom har bevisligen sin jordgetingsv\u00e4rm med SOF toppat med SBU\/GUR (har jag f\u00e5tt f\u00f6r mig) men inte kan v\u00e4l v\u00e4der och SOF totalkrascha den ryska offensiven s\u00e5 pass fort och dessutom s\u00e4nka stridsv\u00e4rdet s\u00e5 mycket s\u00e5 dom inte klarar att g\u00e5 i f\u00f6rsvar?<\/p>\n

Eller fungerar det s\u00e5 bra som man hoppades p\u00e5 \u2013 s\u00e5 fort dom blev stillast\u00e5ende f\u00f6rvandlades dom till offer nattetid f\u00f6r att dom inte har m\u00f6rkerseende?<\/p>\n

Om det visar sig att ryssarna har f\u00f6rsvagat uppe i norra Luhansk vore det en brak-sensation i atombombsklass och Svampbob f\u00e5r jobb som general i valfri stab.<\/p>\n

D\u00e5 betyder det att dom inte haft tillr\u00e4ckligt p\u00e5 andra fronter f\u00f6r dom har visat stor vilja att f\u00f6rsvara norra Luhansk.<\/p>\n

Dom har 30 000st bakom s\u00f6dra fronten vet vi p\u00e5 ett ungef\u00e4r (siffran har flugit runt r\u00e4tt mycket), ett helt g\u00e4ng brigader vid Vuhledar, n\u00e5t tiotal vid Bakhmut och r\u00e4tt h\u00f6g densitet p\u00e5 1st och 2nd Army corps runt det geografiska Donetsk-omr\u00e5det (skick p\u00e5 dom vet vi inte).<\/p>\n

Det finns ocks\u00e5 en offensiv reserv vid norra fronten men den \u00e4r i storleksordningen 10 000st.<\/p>\n

UA \u00e4r nu uppe vid NS linje genom Svatove, d\u00e4refter har dom NS linje genom Starobilsk och sen V\u00d6 linje i staden Luhanskomr\u00e5det \u2013 \u00e4ven om det vore j\u00e4mnt f\u00f6rdelat borde det ligga 50 000st ryssar i omr\u00e5det dom nu trycker p\u00e5 i och det \u00e4r ryska eliten som kr\u00e4lar runt i groparna \u2013 n\u00e5got \u00e4r det som inte st\u00e4mmer.<\/p>\n

Hur jag \u00e4n vrider och v\u00e4nder p\u00e5 kartorna s\u00e5 \u00e4r det r\u00e4tt viktigt att Ukraina \u00e5tertar norra Luhansk innan ryssarna (om dom kan, vilket dom inte kan!) mobiliserar upp n\u00e5n miljon och trycker ut dom i v\u00e4rnsystemen i v\u00e5r n\u00e4r v\u00e4dret \u00e4r bra \u2013 d\u00e5 f\u00f6rl\u00e4ngs kriget med den tid det tar att k\u00f6ra \u00f6ver en miljon ryss i grop.<\/p>\n

-det b\u00f6r inte bli en dags lugn i norra Luhansk f\u00f6r ryss i grop under hela Mars och April.<\/p>\n

V\u00e4ntar ni som jag p\u00e5 att ryssarna skall anfalla vid s\u00f6dra fronten?
\nDet kan bara sluta p\u00e5 ett s\u00e4tt och sen \u00e4r dom i stort sett redo att k\u00f6ras \u00f6ver d\u00e4rnere.<\/p>\n

Ig\u00e5r tyckte jag det blev klart fr\u00e5n kossacken och accentmannen att Bakhmut \u00e4r en enorm flugf\u00e4lla och att den fungerar. <\/p>\n

Accentmannen gissar ju ocks\u00e5 p\u00e5 f\u00f6rdr\u00f6jningsstrid genom staden som undertecknad och det kommer kosta m\u00e5nga VDV och Spetznaz att ta dom husen.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r nu allts\u00e5 infanteri till fots som stormar v\u00e4rnsystem som \u00e4ven blivit f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkta med IFV och MBT och d\u00e4r Ukraina anv\u00e4nder all indirekt eld dom kan mot dom \u2013 slakt \u00e4r nog ett mer passande ord \u00e4n rysk offensiv h\u00e4r.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r lysande krigf\u00f6ring fr\u00e5n Ukraina och jag f\u00f6rst\u00e5r inte varf\u00f6r erk\u00e4nt pro-ukrainska k\u00e4llor b\u00f6rjade skrika om att Ukraina skulle retirera fr\u00e5n Bakhmut, till och med legender som Defmon tog den positionen vilket var mycket ov\u00e4ntat. <\/p>\n

Jag vet att det l\u00e5ter illa men att kunna ta ut VDV och Spetznaz n\u00e4r dom hasar sig \u00f6ver f\u00e4lten \u00e4n n\u00e4r dom g\u00e5tt i f\u00f6rberett f\u00f6rsvar med PV robot och n\u00e4rPV \u00e4r inte s\u00e5 dumt.<\/p>\n

Nu kommer det fler och fler tweets p\u00e5 frivilligf\u00f6rband som k\u00f6rs in i Bakhmut \u2013 minns ni Severedonetsk s\u00e5 drog dom ut de vanliga arm\u00e9f\u00f6rbanden n\u00e4r det blev strid i ort och k\u00f6rde in de f\u00f6rband som beh\u00e4rskade den krigf\u00f6ringen b\u00e4st.<\/p>\n

Det tillsammans med att man h\u00e5ller flankerna g\u00f6r det r\u00e4tt tydligt att dom t\u00e4nkt sig en f\u00f6rdr\u00f6jningsstrid genom staden till enorma ryska f\u00f6rluster.<\/p>\n

I Severedonetsk brukade dom komma tilllbaka p\u00e5 natten och rensa det dom \u00f6vergivit dagtid.<\/p>\n

Sen f\u00e5r jag den distinkta k\u00e4nslan av att Ukraina \u00e4r i full kontroll h\u00e4r \u00f6ver hela fronten.<\/p>\n

Oron g\u00f6r rundorna \u00e4ven hos pro-ukrainska debatt\u00f6rer nu men allt jag egentligen ser \u00e4r att Ukraina tar ett steg i taget, m\u00e5 s\u00e5 vara ibland kostsamma steg, och att ryssarna inte kan parera det alls.<\/p>\n

Jag undrar om det inte \u00e4r en mycket lyckad rysk psyops detta \u2013 om vi tar diskussionen kring Bakhmut s\u00e5 varnar ju m\u00e5nga nu f\u00f6r att pro-ryssarna f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker skr\u00e4mma upp civilbefolkningen s\u00e5 dom skall s\u00e4tta press p\u00e5 politiken att \u00f6verge Bakhmut. <\/p>\n

N\u00e5n skrev i tr\u00e5den att Gregg f\u00e5tt massa kritik f\u00f6r att \u201doffra liv\u201d i Bakhmut till exempel. Sen ammunitionsbrist, f\u00f6rsvagad arm\u00e9, UA\u201dh\u00e5ller p\u00e5 att f\u00f6rlora\u201d och allt det som g\u00f6r\/och har gjort rundorna.<\/p>\n

Innan dess var det \u201doffensiv med 500 000\u201d som var p\u00e5 bordet och nu dinglas den \u201denorma ryska v\u00e5roffensiven\u201d framf\u00f6r oss som ett stort m\u00f6rkt moln.<\/p>\n

Jag tycker det \u00e4r \u00f6vertydligt hur rigid den ryska organisationen \u00e4r och att allt startar med lite skrikprat fr\u00e5n Putin p\u00e5 ett m\u00f6te och sen g\u00f6r generalerna allt mellan n\u00e5gonting till det b\u00e4sta dom kan.<\/p>\n

Ukraina har en v\u00e4l utvecklad strategi som byggs p\u00e5 och \u00e4ndras utifr\u00e5n situationen och dom \u00e4r blixtsnabba p\u00e5 att utnyttja \u00f6ppningar. Jag har h\u00f6g tilltro till deras f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga och har \u00e4nnu inte sett n\u00e5gonting som kommer hindra dom fr\u00e5n att uppn\u00e5 m\u00e5let att befria sitt land och det b\u00f6r g\u00e5 fort n\u00e4r dom trycker p\u00e5 start.<\/p>\n

En annan oro som g\u00f6r rundorna \u00e4r hur de ryska f\u00f6rsvarssystemen kommer paralysera Ukraina i deras offensiv, jag har f\u00f6rs\u00f6kt beskriva min bild av hur det kommer g\u00e5 ett par g\u00e5nger och nedan \u00e4r en annan som jag tycker har en liknande uppfattning.<\/p>\n

All materiel \u00e4r ju levererad och dom har f\u00f6rb\u00e4ttrat USA doktrinen f\u00f6r breach med dr\u00f6nare, luftbrisader och information i realtid \u2013 allt det h\u00e4r har testats och vi har sett filmer p\u00e5 alltihop.<\/p>\n

Nu skall det bara ske under en st\u00f6rre koordinerad offensiv med genombrott av hel front vilket naturligtvis kommer g\u00e5 str\u00e5lande som allting annat Ukraina f\u00f6retar sig.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1631872791526907906?s=46&t=q5lGrpfZ5EqOnTrTDBXjjw<\/a><\/p>\n

Sen g\u00e4ller credit due \u2013 Tyskland har tagit t\u00e4tpositionen h\u00e4r i att driva st\u00f6d f\u00f6r Ukraina och det \u00e4r mycket kul att se. Kul att vara Van just nu \ud83d\ude00 Go Team Scholz \u270a<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:22 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:33 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Tr\u00e5d om det som skall vinna kriget \u00e5t ryssarna \u2013 T62<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1631896543300050944?s=46&t=uRhouDijWkJ9aBI1gMMhbw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:40 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Sen n\u00e4r vi \u00e4r inne p\u00e5 \u00e4mnet understa hyllan l\u00e4ngst bak i f\u00f6rr\u00e5det har vi ju det d\u00e4r t\u00e5get h\u00e4romdagen med allt utom vettig utrustning.<\/p>\n

N\u00e5gon skrev BRDM och dom var v\u00e4l dessutom \u00e4ldre?<\/p>\n

Jag t\u00e4nker ju att en s\u00e5n kan man v\u00e4l lika g\u00e4rna strunta i att skicka till fronten, half-life p\u00e5 n\u00e5n minut.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1631688158751358985?s=46&t=uRhouDijWkJ9aBI1gMMhbw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:46 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Blir fint att se n\u00e4r de blir ett l\u00e4tt byte f\u00f6r leoparder p\u00e5 jakt.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

09:29 \u2013 Johan No.1 Nu r\u00f6r det sig p\u00e5 en plats till uppe i norra Luhansk Chernovopopivka (hur det nu 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