{"id":7647,"date":"2023-03-30T09:36:29","date_gmt":"2023-03-30T07:36:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-03-30\/"},"modified":"2023-03-30T09:36:29","modified_gmt":"2023-03-30T07:36:29","slug":"2023-03-30","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-03-30\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-03-30"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:09 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

I alla fall jag b\u00f6rjar bli positiv n\u00e4r det g\u00e4ller Ukrainas v\u00e5roffensiv.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r enorma m\u00e4ngder strategisk kommunikation just nu p\u00e5 kolonner med v\u00e4stpansar, \u00f6stpansar och pansar i st\u00f6rsta allm\u00e4nhet som har p\u00e5h\u00e4ngt extra allt i utrustning och ser r\u00e4tt f\u00e4rdiga ut f\u00f6r att d\u00f6da ryss i grop.<\/p>\n

H\u00e4romnatten postade Erik14 en film p\u00e5 rader med skytte som stod och s\u00e5g ut \u00f6ver en bred flod \u2013 finns ju bara Dnepr.
\nOch s\u00e5 h\u00e4r h\u00e5ller det p\u00e5\u2026<\/p>\n

De ryska soldaterna kommer ju vara utbr\u00e4nda av allt stressp\u00e5slag redan innan offensiven startat n\u00e4r dom sitter och flippar mellan filmerna p\u00e5 telegram i sin grop med gyttjig botten fortfarande \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Om ni minns en tidigare diskussion kring bubblarlistan s\u00e5 var den (fritt ur minnet) s\u00e5 att den \u00f6vriga eliten i Ryssland har f\u00e5tt veta att dom ocks\u00e5 kommer hamna p\u00e5 sanktions och ICC listor och att f\u00f6nstret f\u00f6r att f\u00f6rhandla sig ur allt h\u00e5ller p\u00e5 att st\u00e4ngas.<\/p>\n

Sen f\u00f6rst\u00e5r ju \u00e4ven en large-m\u00e4skdunk oligark att f\u00f6rhandlingschipsen man har idag i form av er\u00f6vrat territorium kommer ligga utspridda p\u00e5 marken mycket snart.<\/p>\n

N\u00e4r Ukraina sl\u00e4ngt ut ryska arm\u00e9n finns det inget kvar att f\u00f6rhandla om eller hur?<\/p>\n

Att g\u00e5 fr\u00e5n Londongrad och miljarder i Schweiz till flygf\u00f6rbud och renimbi borde skakat om de flesta i eliten ordentligt.<\/p>\n

M\u00f6tet med Xi Jinping var ju halvljummet om man tolkar det sn\u00e4llt och varenda oligark satt v\u00e4l klistrad vid TVn och s\u00e5g alla talen.<\/p>\n

Att Putin hyllar att all handel skall ske i renimbi n\u00e4r dom f\u00f6r ett \u00e5r sedan kunde slussa miljarder genom europeiska banker bara m\u00e5ste vara en r\u00e4tt stor sm\u00e4ll.<\/p>\n

Personligen tror jag att Ryssland \u00e4r p\u00e5 god v\u00e4g att v\u00e4nda sig in\u00e5t, det \u00e4r f\u00f6r m\u00e5nga tecken.<\/p>\n

Lyssna bara p\u00e5 hur Gerasimov man\u00f6vrerade ut Sorovkin och hur Wagner och arm\u00e9n st\u00e4ndigt underminerar varandra.
\nS\u00e5 d\u00e4r ser det naturligtvis ut i den politiska ledningen ocks\u00e5 och sp\u00e4nningarna m\u00e5ste vara enorma nu.<\/p>\n

N\u00e5got kommer brista men man f\u00e5r inte sp\u00e5 utslag fr\u00e5n bubblarlistan s\u00e5na \u00e4r reglerna och n\u00e4mnden drar f\u00f6tterna efter sig mer \u00e4n lovligt l\u00e4nge f\u00f6r den d\u00e4r \u00e4ndringen.<\/p>\n

Bakhmut \u00e4r upplagt f\u00f6r Wagner-eliminering, man har ptgb hur m\u00e5nga som helst i omr\u00e5det och wagner har skytte l\u00e5ga p\u00e5 allt som kommit dit i bussar. Man vet ju aldrig vad som \u00e4r situationen p\u00e5 plats men om arm\u00e9n \u00f6vergav Bakhmut till f\u00f6rem\u00e5l f\u00f6r Avdiivka tog dom nog de flesta h\u00e5rda fordonen med sig.<\/p>\n

Vid s\u00f6dra fronten intensifieras spaningsstriderna och f\u00f6rbek\u00e4mpningen \u00e4r i full g\u00e5ng det tycker jag \u00e4r odiskutabelt.<\/p>\n

Och mellan Soledar \u2013 Siversk fick UA till ett genombrott vid Bilohorivka p\u00e5 3.8km \u2013 spektakul\u00e4rt men ocks\u00e5 den situation som f\u00f6rbandskartorna f\u00f6resl\u00e5r \u2013 d\u00e5ligt f\u00f6rsvarat omr\u00e5de.<\/p>\n

Ta er en titt p\u00e5 f\u00f6rbandskartorna s\u00e5 kommer ni f\u00e5 se n\u00e5got kul, jag tror militaryland lagt in alla nya brigader nu, har inte kollat upp det iofs., men det \u00e4r 20st brigader som inte ligger vid aktiva fronter \u2013 st\u00f6rre delen mekbrigader.<\/p>\n

D\u00e5 har man utan dom h\u00e5llit fronten och trycker p\u00e5 fram\u00e5t i Luhansk, man har h\u00e5llit Bakhmut och f\u00f6rt fram f\u00f6rband f\u00f6r offensiv d\u00e4r, man h\u00e5ller Avdiivka och man f\u00f6r aggressiva spaningsstrider vid s\u00f6dra fronten.<\/p>\n

Ryska laget har blivit om inte helt passivt s\u00e5 r\u00e4tt s\u00f6liga n\u00e4r dom fortfarande har Putins piska vinande \u00f6ver sig vilket \u00e4r signifikant.<\/p>\n

Och ut\u00f6ver allt dom utr\u00e4ttat hittills finns det d\u00e5 20st brigader till som helt gripbar offensiv reserv (ni minns tidigare diskussioner om att den kritiska massan sedan l\u00e4nge \u00e4r p\u00e5 UA sida, nu ser man det p\u00e5 f\u00f6rbandskartorna tycker jag).<\/p>\n

Och alla marinesbrigaderna \u00e4r ute ur aktiv front vilket \u00e4r mycket talande och supersmart \u2013 det \u00e4r ju d\u00e4rf\u00f6r dom h\u00e5ller f\u00f6rband nere p\u00e5 Krim nu s\u00e5 s\u00f6dra fronten blir allt svagare.<\/p>\n

Var man inte sprallig innan har man sv\u00e5rt att sitta still nu p\u00e5 morgonen.<\/p>\n

Att Ukraina skulle korsa Dnepr drev vi r\u00e4tt l\u00e4nge i tr\u00e5den och det vore ju roligt om ocks\u00e5 det materialiserades \u2013 vilket det s\u00e5klart kommer g\u00f6ra. Vad skall man annars med alla vadarfordon och brol\u00e4ggare till?<\/p>\n

Allts\u00e5 den brol\u00e4ggarmateriel f\u00f6r att korsa bredare vattendrag.<\/p>\n

Och de sm\u00e5 flodb\u00e5tarna och allt annat kul som levererats som vi f\u00e5r sm\u00e5 bitar information kring hela tiden.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1640828059317071872?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

Att \u00f6ppna ett hot p\u00e5 Dneprs v\u00e4nstra strand kommer direkt r\u00f6ra till det f\u00f6r ryska stridsledningen om dom samtidigt f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker h\u00e5lla emot vid s\u00f6dra fronten.<\/p>\n

Med tanke p\u00e5 hur mycket som r\u00f6r sig s\u00f6derut just nu p\u00e5 v\u00e4garna f\u00e5r man n\u00e4stan k\u00e4nslan att all terr\u00e4ng bakom s\u00f6dra fronten kommer spontan-evakueras blixtsnabbt n\u00e4r det blir fart p\u00e5 UA?<\/p>\n

N\u00e4r schackdraget \u00e4r utdelat \u00e4r det utdelat och d\u00e5 \u00e4r det slut (men ryssarna sprattlar v\u00e4l vidare ett tag till f\u00f6rmodligen). D\u00e5 \u00e4r punkten passerad och allt Putin egentligen kan g\u00f6ra \u00e4r att l\u00e4mna Ukraina, men sen m\u00e5ste ju Putin och Ryssland f\u00f6rst\u00e5 detta sj\u00e4lva ocks\u00e5 och s\u00e5 h\u00e4r l\u00e5ngt har dom varit urusla p\u00e5 att l\u00e4sa rummet.<\/p>\n

Var Matsextrude som v\u00e4drade det ig\u00e5r att n\u00e4r UA drar ig\u00e5ng kommer ryska laget falla ihop som en tillnyktrande ryss.<\/p>\n

Jag g\u00e5r lite i liknande tankeg\u00e5ngar men v\u00e5gar ju inte skriva n\u00e5t s\u00e5nt med risk f\u00f6r b\u00f6ter f\u00f6r akut positivism och grovt \u00f6nskedr\u00f6mmande.<\/p>\n

Att vi underskattar Ukraina \u00e4r jag r\u00e4tt \u00f6vertygad om men jag b\u00f6rjar fundera p\u00e5 om vi inte ocks\u00e5 \u00f6verskattar ryssarna grovt h\u00e4r.<\/p>\n

Skall man f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka underbygga detta resonemang krigstekniskt blir det f\u00f6ljande \u2013 vi vet skicket p\u00e5 ryssarna men vi \u00f6verskattar dom, vi r\u00e4knar inte med alla h\u00e5rda fordon som st\u00e5r med tekniska fel i bakre, alla ej stridsrelaterade skador, det allm\u00e4nna stridsv\u00e4rdet efter en vinter i f\u00e4lt och om f\u00f6rlusterna \u00e4r h\u00f6gre \u00e4n 1:1 + ammunitionsbristen. Vi \u00f6verskattar ocks\u00e5 deras defensiva positioner, den h\u00e4r g\u00e5ngen \u00e4r det inte VDV som byggt allt f\u00f6rsvar utan vanliga f\u00f6rband eller civila contractors \u2013 svaga punkter finns det gott om.
\nVi g\u00f6r detta f\u00f6r att vi t\u00e4nker att ingen kan vara s\u00e5 h\u00e4r pass urusel, det g\u00e5r helt enkelt inte.<\/p>\n

F\u00f6r ukrainas del s\u00e5 \u00e4r stridsledningen storkonsumenter av omeprazol just nu. Dom f\u00f6rst\u00e5r precis som oss att det \u00e4r nu det g\u00e4ller att komma till ett avg\u00f6rande. Man tar inga risker och man kommer klippa till med precis allt man har s\u00e5 h\u00e5rt man kan f\u00f6r att inte riskera att fastna dinglandes i taggtr\u00e5den.<\/p>\n

Det kommer vara alldeles f\u00f6r mycket mot vad som egentligen beh\u00f6vs men eftersom det \u00e4r ny mark f\u00f6r dom, och s\u00e5 pass mycket st\u00e5r p\u00e5 spel, g\u00e5r man all in med b\u00e5de livrem och h\u00e4ngslen.<\/p>\n

Ukrainas offensiv mellan Soledar \u2013 Bilohorivka har ocks\u00e5 en annan kicker, f\u00f6rband p\u00e5 fel sida Siversky Donets kan inte f\u00f6rst\u00e4rka i omr\u00e5det enkelt. H\u00e4r b\u00f6r det r\u00f6ra p\u00e5 sig rej\u00e4lt efter att Bakhmut rensats rimligen.<\/p>\n

Det kommer \u00f6verraskningar, vi vet sedan i h\u00f6stas att dom fick 2500st sj\u00e4lvmordsdr\u00f6nare och dom har dom bara betatestats.<\/p>\n

S\u00e4kerligen mycket inhemsk tillverkning och nya leveranser sedan dess.<\/p>\n

-Och m\u00e5lstyrd 155mm + mer till HIMARS f\u00f6rmodligen l\u00e5ngskjutande. GLMDBS har ju bekr\u00e4ftats f\u00f6r leverans till exempel\u2026
\n-Dom har sina Toschka U, Grom och n\u00e5got mer.<\/p>\n

Rybar \u00e4r helt tyst.
\nGirkin har vi inte h\u00f6rt ifr\u00e5n p\u00e5 ett tag?
\nVad s\u00e4ger Muntz?<\/p>\n

Vi har v\u00e4l arbetat fram mitten April som m\u00f6jligt startdatum men vet ocks\u00e5 att marken redan nu b\u00e4r f\u00f6r ptgb i Bakhmut och att UA uppenbarligen kunnat f\u00f6ra spaningsstrider med h\u00e5rda fordon vid s\u00f6dra fronten.<\/p>\n

S\u00e5 mellan idag och mitten April b\u00f6r rimligen offensiva operationer starta p\u00e5 n\u00e5got frontavsnitt?<\/p>\n

Tydligen s\u00e5 har Bulgarien enorma lager \u00f6ststatsammunition fortfarande?
\nDom har f\u00e5tt alldeles f\u00f6r lite cred f\u00f6r sin insats med ammunition tycker jag, dom h\u00f6ll Ukraina flytande i b\u00f6rjan av kriget och forts\u00e4tter leverera.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1640933576614051842?s=46&t=mjgG5UF1TTVdiwgiPft8UQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Sen har ju dr\u00f6narsv\u00e4rmar varit uppe och h\u00e4r har ni foto, tror Grankovitch var tidigt p\u00e5 bollen om RPG skott.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1640933042884603905?s=46&t=mjgG5UF1TTVdiwgiPft8UQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Vi vet att UA k\u00f6pt delar till 100 000st dr\u00f6nare fr\u00e5n Kina och accelererat inhemsk tillverkning enormt.
\nMan har betatestat alla m\u00f6jliga dr\u00f6nare och ryska luftf\u00f6rsvaret i n\u00e5gra m\u00e5nader nu.<\/p>\n

Det vore helt logiskt att ut\u00f6ver de 2500st dr\u00f6narna + fler man f\u00e5tt av v\u00e4st ha producerat s\u00e5 m\u00e5nga man kan sj\u00e4lv.<\/p>\n

Dr\u00f6narvapnet har varit GALET effektivt, en dr\u00f6nargrupp slog ut 10st strv p\u00e5 ett nattpass, en annan 6st strv.<\/p>\n

De enda?<\/p>\n

Sj\u00e4lvklart inte och sl\u00e4pper man l\u00f6s tusentals \u00e4r det \u00f6ver innan det ens b\u00f6rjat.<\/p>\n

Vi vet redan fr\u00e5n Armenien \u2013 Azerbaijan hur v\u00e4l det fungerar mot sovjetisk doktrin s\u00e5 det har varit k\u00e4nt i ett par \u00e5r v\u00e4l?<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r sv\u00e5rt att inte hoppa upp och ned just nu \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:32 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+100 <\/p>\n

Fint att se att du b\u00f6rjar se b\u00f6rjar bli positiv till v\u00e5roffensiven! \ud83d\ude09<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:55 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Girkin har helt gett upp, kallar befordrade officerare f\u00f6r snigel-f\u00f6rr\u00e4dare och skriver i versaler att kollapsen \u00e4r n\u00e4ra f\u00f6rest\u00e5ende.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1641383576343126018?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:17 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+1 Ren fr\u00f6jd att l\u00e4sa Girkins depressiva utbrott! <\/p>\n

Hade man inte vetat att han vore en r\u00f6vhatt kunde man n\u00e4stan k\u00e4nna en liten gnutta sympati f\u00f6r honom d\u00e4r han sitter och surmuttrar i motvind. \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:09 \u2013 Johan No.1 I alla fall jag b\u00f6rjar bli positiv n\u00e4r det g\u00e4ller Ukrainas v\u00e5roffensiv. Det \u00e4r enorma m\u00e4ngder […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7647","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ukraina","category-arkiv01"],"yoast_head":"\n2023-03-30 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-03-30\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2023-03-30 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"10:09 \u2013 Johan No.1 I alla fall jag b\u00f6rjar bli positiv n\u00e4r det g\u00e4ller Ukrainas v\u00e5roffensiv. 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