{"id":7732,"date":"2023-04-01T09:51:29","date_gmt":"2023-04-01T07:51:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-04-01\/"},"modified":"2023-04-01T09:51:29","modified_gmt":"2023-04-01T07:51:29","slug":"2023-04-01","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-04-01\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-04-01"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:26<\/h2>\n

1 April s\u00e5 \u00e4r v\u00e4l b\u00e4st att ligga l\u00e5gt men nog skrattade man g\u00e5tt \u00e5t de gamla antika eldr\u00f6ren som bloggaren postade ovan, Noel postade ju innan 1 April s\u00e5 det m\u00e5ste v\u00e4l vara en sanning?<\/p>\n

(eller s\u00e5 var jag den enda som h\u00f6gg p\u00e5 dagens aprilsk\u00e4mt och kommer fastna i en sj\u00e4lvf\u00f6rst\u00e4rkande h\u00e4cklings-loop som aldrig tar slut \ud83d\ude00)<\/p>\n

Jag har b\u00f6rjat tala i termer av oveders\u00e4gliga bevis f\u00f6r att ryssarna gr\u00e4ver riktigt djupt i f\u00f6rr\u00e5den. <\/p>\n

\u00c5terigen \u2013 man har begr\u00e4nsad transport och verkstadskapacitet och tas dom upp av antikviteter som T55 \u00e4r det f\u00f6r att man inte har T80 och T90 som tar upp den kapaciteten \u2013 logik som \u00e4ven en f\u00f6rskoleklass f\u00f6rst\u00e5r om man byter ut det mot mor\u00f6tter och godisp\u00e5sar ist\u00e4llet.<\/p>\n

Bara f\u00f6r att UA inte p\u00e5b\u00f6rjat sin v\u00e5roffensiv \u00e4nnu g\u00f6r man ju det klassiska misstaget att ha f\u00f6r h\u00f6ga tankar om deras f\u00f6rsvarslinjer ocks\u00e5, n\u00e4r T55 och gammalt WW2 pansarv\u00e4rn rullar mot fronterna.<\/p>\n

Vi vet ju sedan tidigare att allt dom g\u00f6r blir uruselt s\u00e5 varf\u00f6r skulle dom vara gudar p\u00e5 att bygga f\u00f6rsvar?<\/p>\n

Drakt\u00e4nderna \u00e4r ju trianglar som man sl\u00e4pper ut p\u00e5 marken ist\u00e4llet f\u00f6r nedgr\u00e4vda och sj\u00e4lvmords-kuberna st\u00e5r f\u00f6rmodligen direkt p\u00e5 marken ist\u00e4llet f\u00f6r att vara nedgr\u00e4vda och \u00e4r fina m\u00e5l.<\/p>\n

Vi har sett hur dom f\u00f6rs\u00f6kt t\u00e4cka \u00f6ver v\u00e4rnen men det blir inte heller r\u00e4tt.<\/p>\n

UA har spanat mot deras v\u00e4rnsystem sedan i h\u00f6stas och vet varenda f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkta v\u00e4rn, s\u00e4kert kommer dom sl\u00e4ppa dr\u00f6nar-granater f\u00f6r att jaga in dom i det f\u00f6rt\u00e4ckta v\u00e4rnet och sen s\u00e4tter dom en 155mm h\u00f6gexplosiv i det.<\/p>\n

Ett genombrott \u00e4r \u00f6ver en yta som f\u00f6rsvaras av en bataljon \u2013 s\u00e4g 300st soldater, n\u00e5t 5-10 stridsvagnar och ett g\u00e4ng IFV. <\/p>\n

Vi vet att UA har tusentals dr\u00f6nare som sl\u00e4pper vinggranater, tusentals sj\u00e4lvmordsdr\u00f6nare, \u00f6verl\u00e4gsen informationsinh\u00e4mtning i realtid, m\u00e5lstyrda luftbrisader, m\u00e5lstyrd ammunition mot h\u00e5rda m\u00e5l. Vi vet att p\u00e5 ett nattpass slog en dr\u00f6nargrupp ut 10st strv en g\u00e5ng och 6st strv en annan g\u00e5ng.<\/p>\n

I min v\u00e4rld kommer f\u00f6rbek\u00e4mpningen av en f\u00f6rsvarslinje vara s\u00e5 pass effektiv s\u00e5 att det som minst inte finns h\u00e5rda fordon kvar, i mitten \u00e4r alla PVrobotar och n\u00e4rPV utslagna och som mest sl\u00e5r man ut allt i f\u00f6rsvar, det ligger 300st ryssar d\u00f6da i v\u00e4rnen n\u00e4r dom rullar \u00f6ver dom.<\/p>\n

Ryssarna l\u00e4gger ju RPG granaterna p\u00e5 en h\u00f6g, dom har sina PV robotar n\u00e5gonstans, n\u00e5t ammunitionsupplag \u2013 allt \u00e4r en vinggranat bort fr\u00e5n att bli utslaget och UA vet precis var det ligger n\u00e5gonstans.<\/p>\n

F\u00f6r ett genombrott kraftsamlar man och sen f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker man g\u00f6ra genombrottet vid en svag punkt.<\/p>\n

Ryssarna \u00e4r ryssar och flyttar inte sina stridsvagnar varje timme, dom f\u00e5r st\u00e5 d\u00e4r dom st\u00e5r.<\/p>\n

Soldaterna har sina eldst\u00e4llningar och ammunitionen flyttas inte runt.<\/p>\n

Alla brol\u00e4ggare kan man s\u00e4kert anv\u00e4nda till att runda mineringar genom att g\u00e5 \u00f6ver sm\u00e5 vattendrag ryssarna tror \u00e4r opasserbara.<\/p>\n

Japp, mineringarna \u00e4r det stora hotet men bet\u00e4nk h\u00e4r att det allseende \u00f6gat har dagliga fotografier av f\u00f6rsvarslinjerna sedan i v\u00e5ras s\u00e5 mitt tips \u00e4r att UA vet var varenda minering ligger.<\/p>\n

F\u00f6rsvarslinjer fungerar s\u00e4llan p\u00e5 det s\u00e4tt man tror \u2013 f\u00e5r stopp p\u00e5 en motst\u00e5ndare.<\/p>\n

Dom f\u00f6rdr\u00f6jer p\u00e5 sin h\u00f6jd en motst\u00e5ndare s\u00e5 att man skall hinna f\u00e5 fram reserver och sl\u00e5 tillbaka honom.<\/p>\n

Dom reserverna \u00e4r redan slutk\u00f6rda efter vinteroffensiven\u2026<\/p>\n

WW1 brukar ju tas upp p\u00e5 ett exempel p\u00e5 hur det kommer sluta men det \u00e4r ett d\u00e5ligt exempel f\u00f6r d\u00e5 gick man till fots \u00f6ver f\u00e4lten. Ukraina kommer ha en spets f\u00f6r genombrott som \u00e4r helt mekaniserad.<\/p>\n

Det h\u00e4r kommer g\u00e5 fort och vara v\u00e5ldsamt. Sen skall ju UA g\u00e5 p\u00e5 djupet ocks\u00e5 och det \u00e4r d\u00e5 det kan bli sv\u00e5rt om RU f\u00e5r fram sina insatsstyrkor men mina pengar \u00e4r p\u00e5 att dom \u00e4r kraftigt decimerade efter den fiaskoartade vinteroffensiven.<\/p>\n

Just nu k\u00e4nner iallafall jag att det \u00e4r lite stormens \u00f6ga vi sitter i, filmerna p\u00e5 ukrainska f\u00f6rberedelser forts\u00e4tter att v\u00e4lla in i fl\u00f6det men dom har inte startat \u00e4nnu. Kan man kanske f\u00f6rst\u00e5 n\u00e4r det \u00e4r kn\u00e4djupt med sn\u00f6 i Bakhmut?<\/p>\n

N\u00e4r marken torkar upp efter s\u00e5 d\u00e4r mycket sn\u00f6 \u00e4r lite oklart just nu\u2026<\/p>\n

Allt \u00e4r ju redan skrivet 100ggr och Budanov verkar vara upptagen f\u00f6r jag f\u00e5r inte hans l\u00e4gesuppdateringar l\u00e4ngre.<\/p>\n

Jag tycker nedan tweet summerar upp det s\u00e5 snyggt vad som historiskt har h\u00e4nt n\u00e4r UA prickat in en rysk l\u00e5gpunkt och tryckt p\u00e5 r\u00e4tt st\u00e4llen \u2013 enorma retr\u00e4tter och absolut kaos.<\/p>\n

Att det skulle sluta annorlunda den 3 eller 4 g\u00e5ngen, lite beroende p\u00e5 hur man r\u00e4knar, tror jag inte f\u00f6r en sekund p\u00e5.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/Tendar\/status\/1641787604684210186?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

B\u00e5gen \u00e4r sp\u00e4nd till bristningsgr\u00e4nsen och f\u00f6rst\u00e5r vi att man m\u00e5ste sl\u00e4ppa pilen f\u00f6rst\u00e5r UA det ocks\u00e5.<\/p>\n

Allt annat \u00e4n full offensiv \u00e4r s\u00e4mre f\u00f6rutom om ryssarna drar sig ur Ukraina med omedelbar verkan men dom verkar beh\u00f6va en mild knuff till f\u00f6r att motiveras till att g\u00f6ra det.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:34<\/h2>\n

Generalerna st\u00e5r p\u00e5 k\u00f6 att meddela hur sv\u00e5rt UA kommer f\u00e5 med sin offensiv och att dom inte skickar mer vapen just nu.<\/p>\n

Psyops, v\u00e4rdel\u00f6s kommunikation, felt\u00e4nk \u2013 UA offensiv kommer g\u00e5 d\u00e5ligt men mer materiel f\u00e5r dom inte, eller n\u00e5t till alternativ vete fanken men tr\u00f6tt b\u00f6rjar man bli p\u00e5 det iallafall.<\/p>\n

Den som orkar kan v\u00e4l googla upp vad dom sa i februari f\u00f6rra \u00e5ret f\u00f6r det var o\u00e4ndligt m\u00e5nga som trodde Kiev skulle falla.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/NOELreports\/status\/1642029923861938176?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

Jag tror dom beh\u00f6ver g\u00e5 Johan No.1 positiv-kurs.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:02<\/h2>\n

Blev ett kort nattpass f\u00f6r mig, soffan ser alldeles f\u00f6r bekv\u00e4m ut.<\/p>\n

Kan rekommendera \u00f6len Cuca, g\u00e5r att k\u00f6pa i Portugal men \u00e4r brygd i ett land jag spenderade n\u00e4stan 10 \u00e5r i och d\u00e4r Cuca var en r\u00e4tt central del i kosth\u00e5llningen. <\/p>\n

Tshirten min farbror k\u00f6pte till sin tio\u00e5rige son l\u00e4ste \u2013 \u201d\u00f6l byggde denna *n\u00e5nting* kropp. Po\u00e4ngen \u00e4r att tshirten skulle ha l\u00e4st \u201dcuca byggde denna *n\u00e5nting* kropp\u201d, d\u00e5 hade det varit r\u00e4ttvisande och jag hade k\u00f6pt n\u00e5t tiotal stycken i storlek small som passat som hand i vante.<\/p>\n

*minns inte vad det stod p\u00e5 den, \u201dvackra\u201d?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12:26 1 April s\u00e5 \u00e4r v\u00e4l b\u00e4st att ligga l\u00e5gt men nog skrattade man g\u00e5tt \u00e5t de gamla antika eldr\u00f6ren 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