{"id":7739,"date":"2023-04-08T09:39:58","date_gmt":"2023-04-08T07:39:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-04-08\/"},"modified":"2023-04-08T09:39:58","modified_gmt":"2023-04-08T07:39:58","slug":"2023-04-08","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-04-08\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-04-08"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:03 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Jag roade mig med att g\u00e5 igenom bookmarklistan som \u00e4r n\u00e5gra mil l\u00e5ng och f\u00e5r p\u00e5minna om dessa tv\u00e5, det var redan i h\u00f6stas\u2026<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/amessniperkitty\/status\/1567861805413793794?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/praisethesteph\/status\/1568344075446947841?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

Ukraina har experimenterat med mekstrid sedan i somras, ibland har det g\u00e5tt bra ibland s\u00e4mre och dom har v\u00e4l som alla andra l\u00e4rt sig av sina misstag?<\/p>\n

Filmerna vi fick d\u00e5 var p\u00e5 M113, olika typer ptgb och \u00f6stpansar \u2013 vi led med dom och m\u00e4ssade v\u00e5rt CV90 varje dag och mellan varven hoppades vi att dom levererats, n\u00e4r Geparderna kom misstog jag dom f\u00f6r Leopard och fick vardagsupa bort besvikelsen.<\/p>\n

Den h\u00e4r g\u00e5ngen \u00e4r spetsen Bradley, Marder, CV90, Warrior och v\u00e4stvagnar.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r en enorm f\u00f6rm\u00e5geh\u00f6jning i materiel och man har \u00e4ven dragit l\u00e4rdomar och tr\u00e4nat bort svagheter sedan dess, samt att man har sj\u00f6satt ett stort antal nya brigader.<\/p>\n

Dom sopade rent i Kharkiv, Izyum, Kherson och Lyman innan det slutligen tog stopp fr\u00e4mst av den anledningen att ryssarna i ren desperation kastade in sina b\u00e4sta f\u00f6rband i en meningsl\u00f6s vinteroffensiv efter att dom offrat nymobiliserade fram till dess f\u00f6r att f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka f\u00e5 stopp p\u00e5 Ukraina och sl\u00e4ppt stora frontavsnitt f\u00f6r att konsolidera sitt f\u00f6rsvar.<\/p>\n

Ryssarna \u00e4r nu svagare \u00e4n vad dom var i h\u00f6stas b\u00e5de i materiel och enskild soldats f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga. F\u00f6rmodligen ocks\u00e5 i numer\u00e4r eftersom dom hade mer Wagner, DPR\/LPR och massa nymobiliserade som v\u00e4llde in. De som hade v\u00e4rnplikt i baggaget \u00e5kte direkt ut p\u00e5 f\u00f6rband \u2013 80 000st fick vi till oss.<\/p>\n

Jokern \u00e4r v\u00e4l d\u00e5 att ryssarnas nybyggda f\u00f6rsvarssystem skulle vara v\u00e4rldens b\u00e4sta men mina pengar \u00e4r p\u00e5 att dom kommer passeras r\u00e4tt fort d\u00e4r UA vill ha genombrott.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r egentligen r\u00e4tt enkelt \u2013 UA har \u00f6verl\u00e4gsen informationsinh\u00e4mtning och d\u00e4r dom best\u00e4mmer sig f\u00f6r genombrott vet dom exakt var minf\u00e4lten \u00e4r och hur f\u00f6rsvaret ser ut.<\/p>\n

Dom kommer inte chansa utan sl\u00e5 igenom med god s\u00e4kerhetsmarginal och vi har ju alla sett vilken \u00f6del\u00e4ggelse enkla dr\u00f6nare med vinggranat kan \u00e5stadkomma mot ett v\u00e4rnsystem.<\/p>\n

F\u00f6r att f\u00e5 till ett genombrott beh\u00f6ver dom sl\u00e5 igenom en bataljon i f\u00f6rsvar och koncentrerar man olika f\u00f6rm\u00e5gor mot en punkt \u00e4r det snabb d\u00f6d f\u00f6r den.<\/p>\n

Tittar ni p\u00e5 f\u00f6rbandskartorna \u00e4r det idag 20st brigader, mek, mountain eller assault, som inte ligger vid aktiv front och inte som insatsstyrka omedelbart bakom aktiv front.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r en enorm offensiv reserv, en mekaniserad spets p\u00e5 100 000 i fungerande enheter.
\nD\u00e4refter f\u00f6ljer allt annat.<\/p>\n

Successiv \u00f6kning torde vara modellen och eftersom det \u00f6ver tid kommer lysa upp l\u00e4ngs med hela fronten och den kritiska massan sedan l\u00e4nge varit till ukrainas f\u00f6rdel spelar det ingen roll vad ryssarna g\u00f6r. Jag har f\u00f6rs\u00f6kt beskriva de m\u00f6ljliga anfallsvektorerna, 3st vid s\u00f6dra fronten (eller 4st om vi inkluderar korsning av Dnepr), norra luhansk, bakhmut, soledar-siversk och sen mot staden Donetsk.<\/p>\n

Jag har ocks\u00e5 f\u00f6rs\u00f6kt beskriva hur man teoretiskt kan kraftsamla mot en front, uppn\u00e5 stridsm\u00e5len och sen flytta f\u00f6rband till n\u00e4sta \u2013 det \u00e4r naturligtvis kartkrigande och sen knackar verkligheten p\u00e5 \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

I den h\u00e4r videon ser jag lejon men jag ser ocks\u00e5 mark som b\u00e4r
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1643995080414339073?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

Det finns en till vinkel p\u00e5 denna ryska soppa Putin glidit ned i, Zelensky anv\u00e4nder nu sin status att f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka r\u00e4dda Moldavien och han har tidigare gjort uttalanden om att Belarus och Ryssland b\u00f6r f\u00e5 sin frihet.
\nDet h\u00e4r \u00e4r svindlande men skulle man lyckas de-kolonisera Ryssland s\u00e5 skulle tiotals miljoners m\u00e4nniskors liv f\u00f6rb\u00e4ttras och v\u00e4rlden bli en b\u00e4ttre plats.<\/p>\n

Det signalerar ocks\u00e5 att Zelensky\/UA inte \u00e4r helt sj\u00e4lvcentrerade utan t\u00e4nker i vidare cirklar \u00e4n att bara \u00f6verleva. Heder \u00e5t dom is\u00e5fall.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/visegrad24\/status\/1644021712164454401?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

Har ni sett denna \u2013 Armenien skall vara med i NATO \u00f6vningar?
\nDet r\u00f6r p\u00e5 sig fort bland alla -stans nu.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/TreasChest\/status\/1644050551703851014?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

Hovnarren Luca fr\u00e5n Brasilien har gett sig in i diskussionen men det var v\u00e4l r\u00e4tt v\u00e4ntat.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/NOELreports\/status\/1644242009333309443?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

Och USA reder ut begreppen kring n\u00e4r Sverige skall med i NATO, 11 Juli blir det.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/nexta_tv\/status\/1644231900100173824?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

\u00c4mnet rysk mobilisering s\u00e5 ser jag ingenting alls i fl\u00f6det, jag vill p\u00e5minna om att den 1 April skulle den s\u00e4tta ig\u00e5ng och dom skulle mobilisera 400 000st frivilliga. I September var vi \u00f6versk\u00f6ljda med filmer men idag 8 April har jag inte sett en endaste film i fl\u00f6det, har ni?<\/p>\n

Ryssarna har ju inte ens f\u00f6rs\u00f6kt g\u00f6ra PR av det med betalda k\u00f6er till rekryteringskontoren, n\u00e4stan s\u00e5 att dom tonar ned denna mobilisering s\u00e5 den skall gl\u00f6mmas bort?<\/p>\n

I alla fall jag tror vi b\u00f6rjar n\u00e4rma oss, marken b\u00e4r inte \u00f6verallt men vi har sett filmer p\u00e5 h\u00e5rda fordon som r\u00f6r sig i terr\u00e4ngen och att marken b\u00e4r.<\/p>\n

Vi gissade v\u00e4l fram mitten April som ett m\u00f6jligt startdatum tidigare. Nu betyder ju inte ett startdatum att 100st brigader f\u00e5r fram\u00e5t men det betyder att UA KAN p\u00e5b\u00f6rja offensiva operationer.<\/p>\n

Mitten April kanske det var m\u00f6jligt med h\u00e4nsyn till terr\u00e4ngen, sen skall 100 andra faktorer ocks\u00e5 falla p\u00e5 plats.
\nVad jag d\u00e4remot \u00e4r mycket s\u00e4ker p\u00e5 det \u00e4r att dom inte kommer v\u00e4nta tills i sommar f\u00f6r det vore att ge ryssarna chans att komma i ordning.
\nEn stor del av materielen \u00e4r f\u00f6rbandssatt och insatsberedd.<\/p>\n

Glad P\u00e5sk.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:25 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4dGlad P\u00e5sk!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:34 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Det \u00e4r ju twitterrykten om att fronterna \u00e4r d\u00e5ligt bemannade men man har inte v\u00e5gat hugga p\u00e5 det hittills, kul att defmon med h\u00f6g kredibilitet ger sig in i den fr\u00e5gan.<\/p>\n

Minns nu att han pratat om spetsen inte totalen, allt \u00e4r inte ryss i grop men de ut\u00f6ver denna numer\u00e4r \u00e4r inte ett motst\u00e5nd.<\/p>\n

Vid dnepr har den siffran flugit rumt f\u00f6rut ett par g\u00e5nger. Rimligt.<\/p>\n

Zaporizia \u2013 trodde det var runt 30 000st + lite vid Vuhledar men dom har f\u00f6rlorat mycket.<\/p>\n

Bakhmut och norr d\u00e4rom, soledar och bilohorivka\/lysychansk\/severedonetsk \u2013 l\u00e5ter rimligt faktiskt.<\/p>\n

Norra luhansk \u2013 WTF \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

20:50 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Han har visuellt f\u00f6rs\u00f6kt bekr\u00e4fta och det \u00e4r ju samma kille som fick 3500st innan krigsstart (d\u00e5 ville ryssarna kanske ha l\u00e5g numer\u00e4r, nu vill dom ha h\u00f6g \ud83d\ude00).<\/p>\n

350st T80U st\u00e5r stilla p\u00e5 en av baserna \u2013 bra indikation p\u00e5 att riktmedel \u00e4r snodda tycker jag?<\/p>\n

Milit\u00e4rbasen\/baserna med T62\/T55\/T64 har mycket mindre pansar \u00e4n 6 m\u00e5nader tillbaka.<\/p>\n

Sen kickern, dom skall vara t\u00f6mda p\u00e5 olja, servade varje tv\u00e5 \u00e5r och elektroniken g\u00e5s igenom med j\u00e4mna mellanrum \u2013 r\u00e4tt s\u00e4ker p\u00e5 att det inte sker.<\/p>\n

1000st stridsvagnar har varmluftsf\u00f6rvaring men r\u00f6rliga delar \u00e4r ju lik f\u00f6rbaskat ur\u00e5ldriga och riktmedel kan fortfarande bli snodda.<\/p>\n

Finns nog en del kvar men att man servar upp T62 \u00e4r en indikation p\u00e5 att man har brist p\u00e5 andra rimligan?<\/p>\n

Kul att det bara finns 50st T90 kvar i f\u00f6rr\u00e5den \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

09:13 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

Ja, de d\u00e4r 3 500 har jag aldrig trott p\u00e5 och analyserade man vad han sj\u00e4lv sa kring stridsvagnar som f\u00f6rsvunnit (n\u00e4r han i sin andra film r\u00e4knade hur m\u00e5nga som inte l\u00e4ngre fanns kvar) brast hans logik r\u00e4tt rej\u00e4lt. Med lite interpolering kom jag fram till d\u00e5 att det borde r\u00f6ra sig om 6-7000 stridsvagnar.<\/p>\n

Tror att han kan vara mer r\u00e4tt ute den h\u00e4r g\u00e5ngen sen \u00e4r fr\u00e5gan \u00e4nd\u00e5 hur skicket verkligen \u00e4r. Han h\u00f6ftade d\u00e5 ocks\u00e5 om att ungef\u00e4r h\u00e4lften av skulle vara helt OK vagnar och h\u00e4lften skulle beh\u00f6va lite mer omv\u00e5rdnad (bortsett d\u00e5 fr\u00e5n alla som \u00e4r skrot).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12:03 \u2013 Johan No.1 Jag roade mig med att g\u00e5 igenom bookmarklistan som \u00e4r n\u00e5gra mil l\u00e5ng och f\u00e5r p\u00e5minna […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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