{"id":7740,"date":"2023-04-09T09:28:25","date_gmt":"2023-04-09T07:28:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-04-09\/"},"modified":"2023-04-09T09:28:25","modified_gmt":"2023-04-09T07:28:25","slug":"2023-04-09","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-04-09\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-04-09"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:38 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Jag tycker Defmons numer\u00e4r p\u00e5 spetsf\u00f6rband var mycket intressant som n\u00e5n gud postade i tr\u00e5den. <\/p>\n

Vid Dnepr motsvarar det vad som flugit runt f\u00f6rut fr\u00e5n olika k\u00e4llor (samma grundk\u00e4lla kanske\u2026) och vid s\u00f6dra fronten \u00e4r det kanske 15 000st under vad jag t\u00e4nkt mig men d\u00e5 har ju ryssarna ocks\u00e5 f\u00f6rlorat enormt mycket vid Vuhledar i m\u00e5nader nu, dom slutar aldrig anfalla, samt att dom satte in 8st brigader vid s\u00f6dra fronten innan dom gav upp d\u00e4r.<\/p>\n

Den stora kickern \u00e4r ju uppe i norra Luhansk, dom gick fr\u00e5n 130 000st till 50 000st i det omr\u00e5det, detta krigs stora mysterium att dom aldrig kom ur startgroparna d\u00e4ruppe.<\/p>\n

Detta \u00e4r bara BTG och det var Defmon tydlig med, det \u00e4r allts\u00e5 inte en totalnumer\u00e4r och idag finns det v\u00e4l 50 000st totalt nere p\u00e5 Krim alla vapenslag?<\/p>\n

Siffrorna kom v\u00e4l s\u00e5d\u00e4r som han presenterar men \u00e4r n\u00e5n typ av average? Vissa frontavsnitt har tagit st\u00f6rre f\u00f6rluster \u00e4n andra, kanske BTG i norra Luhansk \u00e4r mer kompletta \u00e4n vid Bakhmut till exempel och det d\u00e4r var rej\u00e4lt detaljerat \u2013 men vi f\u00e5r v\u00e4l l\u00e4sa siffrorna s\u00e5 som dom presenterats t\u00e4nker jag?<\/p>\n

Dock s\u00e5 \u00e4r det den f\u00f6rsta summeringen vi har f\u00e5tt p\u00e5 mycket l\u00e4nge och den b\u00f6r inte avf\u00e4rdas. Bra Defmon jobb.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/DefMon3\/status\/1644496904712069126?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

Till det h\u00e4r till kommer v\u00e4l kanske 40 000st LPR\/DPR soldater framf\u00f6rallt vid Donetsk, s\u00e5 ryssarnas BTG numer\u00e4r \u00e4r l\u00e4gre d\u00e4r, och vid Luhansk.<\/p>\n

Jag tror det d\u00e4r \u00e4r r\u00e4tt n\u00e4ra sanningen f\u00f6r totalen l\u00e5g v\u00e4l p\u00e5 350 000st f\u00f6r ett tag sedan?<\/p>\n

Sen har vi f\u00f6rlusterna och sen den st\u00e4ndiga p\u00e5fyllnaden av 20 000st\/m\u00e5nad + det som eventuellt fanns kvar i tr\u00e4ningsl\u00e4gren.<\/p>\n

Mot det h\u00e4r st\u00e5r en offensiv reserv p\u00e5 100 000st UA samt resten av den ukrainska arm\u00e9n.<\/p>\n

Om vi f\u00f6renklar rej\u00e4lt \u2013 arm\u00e9n h\u00e5ller trycket uppe \u00f6verallt vilket dom kan och offensiva reserven anfaller p\u00e5 ett frontavsnitt \u2013 vem som helst kan ju se att man kommer sk\u00e4ra igenom p\u00e5 vilket som helst av frontavsnitten.<\/p>\n

Just idag har inte ryssarna mycket mer att skicka \u2013 det st\u00e5r inga 300 000st soldater och v\u00e4ntar n\u00e5gonstans f\u00f6r man har inte \u00f6kat tempot i mobiliseringen. Det kan vi anta f\u00f6r vi ser inga filmer alls i fl\u00f6det som det var i September 2022.<\/p>\n

Sk\u00e4r dom igenom s\u00f6dra fronten vid n\u00e5gon av anfallsvektorerna s\u00e5 kommer 15 000st + 10 000st-20 000st att helt sj\u00e4lvmant f\u00f6rflytta sig ned till Krim.<\/p>\n

Ukraina parkerar d\u00e5 en brigad vid broarna \u00f6ver till Krim och ni kan ju sen g\u00f6ra om \u00f6vningen med ungef\u00e4r samma numer\u00e4r f\u00f6r Ukraina men minus 30 000st f\u00f6r ryssarna\u2026<\/p>\n

Bakhmut \u00e4r ju lite bredare \u00e4n s\u00e5, upp till Siversky Donets rimligen och ocks\u00e5 medr\u00e4knat Severedonetsk?<\/p>\n

Till det h\u00e4r har vi hela diskussionen om att dom \u00e4r snorkorta p\u00e5 pansar och att dom \u00e4r likaledes snorkorta p\u00e5 nyckelpersonal \u2013 det ser MYCKET d\u00e5ligt ut f\u00f6r ryssarna och en till rysk retr\u00e4tt (panik, l\u00e4mna allt) kan mycket v\u00e4l ligga runt h\u00f6rnet.<\/p>\n

Mick Ryan tycker jag ligger helt r\u00e4tt med ett undantag, jag tror att Ukraina har f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga att f\u00f6ra fram f\u00f6rband mot flera fronter simultant s\u00e5 det spelar ingen roll hur ryssarnas under\u00e4ttelsel\u00e4ge ser ut. Dom kommer bara f\u00e5 bekr\u00e4ftat att UA kan anfalla mot A,B och C och att det inte \u00e4r mycket dom kan g\u00f6ra \u00e5t saken.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/warinthefuture\/status\/1644818516808470530?s=46&t=_CH2m2qURWrFnaHG_HsnkQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Logistiken skriker m\u00e5nga, det \u00e4r den det kommer falla p\u00e5. USA har redan levererat fordon och annat f\u00f6r en fungerande logistikkedja.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/infoagestrategy\/status\/1643785763929063424?s=46&t=_CH2m2qURWrFnaHG_HsnkQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Den h\u00e4r hen har nog gissat mer \u00e4n mig men han trycker in numer\u00e4r f\u00f6r h\u00e5rda fordon ocks\u00e5, ok\u00e4nd k\u00e4lla och stor f\u00f6rsiktighet p\u00e5 den.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/skadefron\/status\/1644665621811011584?s=46&t=_CH2m2qURWrFnaHG_HsnkQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Kreminna eller norra Luhansk gissar jag och s\u00e5 h\u00e4r ser v\u00e4l en uppmarsch ut \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/ukrainenewslive\/status\/1643838746280722433?s=46&t=_CH2m2qURWrFnaHG_HsnkQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Mer f\u00f6rflyttning, sv\u00e5rt att veta om det \u00e4r nu eller i h\u00f6stas men vacker st\u00e4mningsfilm s\u00e5 den \u00e5kte med \ud83d\udc4d
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/ukrainenewslive\/status\/1643839937668587520?s=46&t=_CH2m2qURWrFnaHG_HsnkQ<\/a><\/p>\n

H\u00e4r st\u00e5r massa skytte och funderar p\u00e5 hur bred Dnepr \u00e4r, samma som Erik14 postade tidigare eller en annan?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/herrynapit\/status\/1644577660155363333?s=46&t=_CH2m2qURWrFnaHG_HsnkQ<\/a><\/p>\n

N\u00e5got som har slagit mig r\u00e4tt l\u00e4nge \u00e4r att alla ryska filmer j\u00e4mnt \u00e4r scriptade och man ser hur det \u00e4r ett sk\u00e5despel samtidigt som v\u00e4ldigt m\u00e5nga av UA filmerna \u00e4r genuina. Jag tror det beror p\u00e5 att det \u00e4r s\u00e5 r\u00f6rigt hos ryssarna s\u00e5 dom beh\u00f6ver en regiss\u00f6r f\u00f6r att f\u00e5 vad dom nu g\u00f6r p\u00e5 filmen att se n\u00e5gorlunda proffsigt ut?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/oldirtyronin\/status\/1644394031042920452?s=46&t=_CH2m2qURWrFnaHG_HsnkQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Vill bara lyfta att UA egna BTR4 har vadarkapacitet. Det har varit mycket prat om AMX-10 men dessa har det och sen har dom setts vada med n\u00e5n typ av \u00f6ppna fordon och BMP tror jag ocks\u00e5.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/kiborgzzz\/status\/1644803475606315010?s=46&t=_CH2m2qURWrFnaHG_HsnkQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Nu \u00e4r det lite varning p\u00e5 denna f\u00f6r det skulle kunna vara fr\u00e5n retr\u00e4tterna norr ut ocks\u00e5 men jag tror detta \u00e4r fr\u00e5n Dnepr i h\u00f6stas och operation Badanka?<\/p>\n

G\u00e5r den inte att besl\u00e5s med fel s\u00e5 k\u00e4nns det som vi visst hade en operation badanka men inte p\u00e5 den skalan vi hoppades d\u00e5 dom drog ur VDV veckorna innan det kollapsade.<\/p>\n

Jag hoppas att DenGamle fortfarande f\u00f6ljer tr\u00e5den s\u00e5 han kan b\u00f6rja sova igen f\u00f6r det h\u00e4r var en k\u00e4nslig punkt f\u00f6r honom, jag fick mycket ris f\u00f6r det \ud83d\ude00
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/herrynapit\/status\/1644309976415113216?s=46&t=_CH2m2qURWrFnaHG_HsnkQ<\/a><\/p>\n

V\u00e4ntans tider\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:05 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+1 Tack f\u00f6r bra bra sammanst\u00e4llning!<\/p>\n

\u00c4ven om jag \u00e4r lite mer inst\u00e4lld p\u00e5 maj \u00e4n april f\u00e5r de g\u00e4rna starta offensiven vilken dag som helst\u2026 B\u00f6rjar bli tr\u00f6tt p\u00e5 att v\u00e4nta! \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12:38 \u2013 Johan No.1 Jag tycker Defmons numer\u00e4r p\u00e5 spetsf\u00f6rband var mycket intressant som n\u00e5n gud postade i tr\u00e5den. 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