{"id":7743,"date":"2023-04-13T08:59:44","date_gmt":"2023-04-13T06:59:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-04-13\/"},"modified":"2023-04-13T08:59:44","modified_gmt":"2023-04-13T06:59:44","slug":"2023-04-13","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-04-13\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-04-13"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:31 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Det verkar g\u00f6ra ont att springa \u00f6ver banvallen i Bakhmut f\u00f6r vidare fram\u00e5t kommer dom ju inte just nu, snarare avancerar dom bakl\u00e4nges.<\/p>\n

Twitterrykten h\u00e4vdar att b\u00e5de Wagner och arm\u00e9f\u00f6rbanden som h\u00e5ller positionerna p\u00e5 flankerna har slut p\u00e5 gas men det \u00e4r som vanligt twittergudarna s\u00e5 man v\u00e5gar inte dra f\u00f6r stora v\u00e4xlar p\u00e5 det.<\/p>\n

Det vore sm\u00e5tt historiskt om det st\u00e4mmer f\u00f6r d\u00e5 \u00e4r Wagners och VDVs offensiva f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga l\u00e5g. Annars hade man ju k\u00f6rt in utvilade VDV f\u00f6rband som inte deltagit i vinteroffensiven f\u00f6r att h\u00e5lla flankerna sippandes coca cola?<\/p>\n

Men om ryktet st\u00e4mmer har man f\u00e5tt f\u00f6ra fram redan stridstr\u00f6tta enheter (hoppas att det st\u00e4mmer\u2026).<\/p>\n

Sen har dom naturligtvis inte f\u00f6rberett djupf\u00f6rsvar i Bakhmut f\u00f6r dom har roat sig med att d\u00f6 ist\u00e4llet s\u00e5 att det \u00e4r en bra punkt f\u00f6r ett genombrott verkar r\u00e4tt uppenbart.<\/p>\n

Kollapsar icke-f\u00f6rsvaret kring Bakhmut \u00f6ppnar det direkt upp ett hot mot Horlivka som p\u00e5 f\u00f6rbandskartorna \u00e4r d\u00e5ligt f\u00f6rsvarat \u2013 dom h\u00e4r dominoeffekterna tog vi v\u00e4l upp f\u00f6r n\u00e5gon m\u00e5nad sedan.<\/p>\n

Man kan f\u00f6rst\u00e5 om Horlivka \u00e4r d\u00e5ligt f\u00f6rsvarat f\u00f6r ryssarna i omr\u00e5det har planerat att inta Bakhmut, inte f\u00f6rsvara en stad l\u00e5ngt bakom aktiv front.<\/p>\n

En av de uppenbara anfallsvektorerna \u00e4r s\u00e5ledes f\u00f6rs\u00f6k till omfattning av ryska f\u00f6rband i Bakhmutomr\u00e5det alternativt bara k\u00f6ra \u00f6ver dom och att sedan projicera ett hot mot Horlivka (ej kasta sig \u00f6ver Horlivka annat \u00e4n om staden skulle falla n\u00e4r man knuffar lite p\u00e5 den).<\/p>\n

Vad g\u00f6r ryska laget om ett hot \u00f6ppnas upp mot Horlivka \u2013 dom m\u00e5ste k\u00f6ra dit reserver f\u00f6rst\u00e5s.<\/p>\n

Bara ett problem h\u00e4r, ryska laget har inga reserver och nu (d\u00e5\/sen) har dessutom Wagner och n\u00e5gra VDV regementen precis blivit \u00f6verk\u00f6rda och ligger och hulkgr\u00e5ter p\u00e5 gropbottnarna.<\/p>\n

D\u00e5 m\u00e5ste man b\u00f6rja v\u00e4lja \u2013 \u00e4r Horlivka viktigare \u00e4n norra Luhansk till exempel?<\/p>\n

S\u00e5 h\u00e4r kommer det h\u00e5lla p\u00e5 och det ryssarna hade beh\u00f6vt nu hade varit 300 000 \u2013 400 000 till av f\u00e4rdigtr\u00e4nade reserver som dom kunde trycka ut i f\u00f6rsvar.<\/p>\n

Hade dom mobiliserat i Januari hade det idag funnits tillr\u00e4ckligt med nymobiliserade som f\u00e5tt sina m\u00e5naders tr\u00e4ning, bra eller d\u00e5lig.<\/p>\n

Nu idag 13 April har vi inte h\u00f6rt n\u00e5got om den frivilliga mobiliseringen av 400 000st som skulle starta f\u00f6rsta April.<\/p>\n

Nu \u00e4r ju inte Johan ett logistiskt geni s\u00e5 f\u00f6rst\u00e5r vi det f\u00f6rst\u00e5r ryssarna det ocks\u00e5. D\u00e5 m\u00e5ste det bero p\u00e5 n\u00e5got annat att man b\u00e5de oroar sig f\u00f6r sin existens och ukrainas kommande v\u00e5roffensiv samtidigt som man inte mobiliserar mer f\u00f6r att f\u00f6rhindra den.<\/p>\n

Jag tillh\u00f6r dom som tror att rysk mobilisering n\u00e5tt v\u00e4gs \u00e4nde.<\/p>\n

Har den inte gjort det och dom drar ig\u00e5ng en mobilisering n\u00e4rmaste m\u00e5naderna, d\u00e5 \u00e4r dom helt inkompetenta bortom r\u00e4ddning.<\/p>\n

Det har i och f\u00f6r sig f\u00f6rekommit ett till rykte att man b\u00f6rjar l\u00e4gga grunden f\u00f6r allm\u00e4n mobilisering s\u00e5 det finns en chans h\u00e4r \u00e4r dom \u00e4r inkompetenta bortom all r\u00e4ddning vilket vore mycket kul.<\/p>\n

Vi f\u00e5r se, b\u00e5da ser lika illa ut.<\/p>\n

Det har tydligen varit eldstrider i Tjetjenien och det f\u00f6ljer p\u00e5 uppropet i sociala medier att starta en revolution mot regimen \u2013 jag vet inte vad som r\u00e4knas som inb\u00f6rdeskrig eller att landet \u00e4r destabiliserat men det r\u00f6r p\u00e5 sig mycket nu i -stans och olika provinser, det \u00e4r odiskutabelt.<\/p>\n

Armenien skall ha NATO\u00f6vning, i Georgien vill dom storma parlamentet, i Tjetjenien \u00e4r det eldstrider och Azerbaijan v\u00e4drar morgonluft.<\/p>\n

Jag har t\u00e4nkt att till exempel Wagner skulle ta jobb i en provins eller -stans som en stark livvakt och garantera den provinsens s\u00e4kerhet.<\/p>\n

K\u00e4nns som dom kommer ha sv\u00e5rt att flyga ned till Afrika fram\u00f6ver som terrorklassade? Eller s\u00e5 har dom en s\u00e5 pass stark n\u00e4rvaro d\u00e4r i ett flertal l\u00e4nder som dom inte vill l\u00e4mna och dom tar n\u00e5n b\u00e5t \u00f6ver fr\u00e5n Turkiet som forts\u00e4tter spela dubbelt?<\/p>\n

Johan f\u00f6rst\u00e5r att hans ideala lilla ljusbl\u00e5a v\u00e4rld inte finns d\u00e4r sanktionerna \u00e4r vattent\u00e4ta!<\/p>\n

Man f\u00e5r inte gl\u00f6mma att hela Wagner inte \u00e4r i Ukraina, dom har idag en stark n\u00e4rvaro i flertalet l\u00e4nder i centrala Afrika (\u00e4r det v\u00e4l?) och \u00e4r just nu diktatorernas favorit guns for hire f\u00f6r folkmord och etnisk rensning.<\/p>\n

Prigozin har lukrativa kontrakt genom sina f\u00f6retag och \u00e4r en mycket f\u00f6rm\u00f6gen man.<\/p>\n

F\u00f6rmodligen ville han v\u00e4l skaffa sig ett gott rykte med ukrainakriget och hade r\u00e4tt h\u00f6ga ambitioner som kommit rej\u00e4lt p\u00e5 skam.<\/p>\n

Men han sl\u00e5r mig inte som en man som kommer g\u00e5 under i Ukraina i ett moln av \u00e4ra och elan \u2013 han har en h\u00e5rd k\u00e4rna som han m\u00e5ste flytta n\u00e5gonstans och det kommer han g\u00f6ra innan den \u00e4r utpl\u00e5nad med dr\u00f6nardroppade vinggranater.<\/p>\n

Jag tycker det \u00e4r r\u00e4tt klart att v\u00e4st skjuter till den ammunition som beh\u00f6vs.<\/p>\n

Sen f\u00e5r man v\u00e4l ha viss tilltro till att v\u00e4st ocks\u00e5 levererat sitt pansar, r\u00e4tt s\u00e4ker p\u00e5 att dom har Leo2 och v\u00e4stliga IFV tillr\u00e4ckligt f\u00f6r att utrusta spetsen f\u00f6rbandssatt redan idag och bandhaubitsar har v\u00e4l kommit dom ocks\u00e5.<\/p>\n

Vi kommer dock tillbaka till en diskussion vi hade redan i v\u00e5ras. Den ukrainska arm\u00e9n m\u00e5ste g\u00e5 ur det h\u00e4r kriget b\u00e5de segrande men ocks\u00e5 n\u00e5gorlunda intakt.<\/p>\n

Efter att ryss i grop rotats upp och f\u00f6sts till sin sida gr\u00e4nsen med h\u00e4ngande huvuden s\u00e5 beh\u00f6ver Ukraina en enorm arm\u00e9 f\u00f6r att freda sitt land f\u00f6r rond 2 som mycket v\u00e4l kan komma.<\/p>\n

Dom kommer \u00f6verta obscena m\u00e4ngder sovjetpansar nere p\u00e5 Krim f\u00f6r ryssarna kommer inte t\u00f6mma uppst\u00e4llningsplatserna f\u00f6r alla h\u00e5rda fordon med mekaniska fel.<\/p>\n

Ammunition kommer dom v\u00e4l ocks\u00e5 f\u00e5 s\u00e5 det r\u00e4cker i hundratals \u00e5r n\u00e4r dom snor alla f\u00f6rr\u00e5den men dom beh\u00f6ver man\u00f6verbrigaderna, expertisen, kunskapen och f\u00f6rm\u00e5gan n\u00e5gorlunda bibeh\u00e5llen \u2013 humankapitalet som det s\u00e5 vackert heter.<\/p>\n

Jag ser att Ryssland kan ta tv\u00e5 v\u00e4gar \u2013 antingen v\u00e4nder dom sig in\u00e5t och d\u00e5 p\u00e5b\u00f6rjas s\u00f6nderfallet eller s\u00e5 f\u00f6rbereder dom sig f\u00f6r rond tv\u00e5 med odlande av dolkst\u00f6tslegender och mer repressiv regim \u00e4n idag som f\u00f6rmodligen \u00e4r sovjetromantiker.<\/p>\n

Att ett demokratiskt Ryssland skulle resa sig ur askan ser jag som osannolikt, men skulle g\u00e4rna ha fel.
\nB\u00e4gge alternativen kr\u00e4ver ett mycket starkt Ukraina.<\/p>\n

Ett mycket starkt Ukraina som \u00e4r knutet till v\u00e4st (NATO \u00e4r inte helt viktigt i det h\u00e4r sammanhanget) \u00e4r ocks\u00e5 en avh\u00e5llande effekt\/tr\u00f6skeleffekt f\u00f6r Ryssland att ge sig p\u00e5 Baltikum till exempel.<\/p>\n

F\u00f6r att g\u00f6ra det beh\u00f6ver dom ha en s\u00e4ker landgr\u00e4ns mot Ukraina och har dom inte det \u00e4r hotet att om dom g\u00e5r in i Baltikum g\u00e5r Ukraina in i Ryssland. Nu g\u00f6r v\u00e4l f\u00f6rmodligen inte Ukraina det men hotet \u00e4r d\u00e4r projicerat rakt p\u00e5 Putins sovrumsv\u00e4gg.<\/p>\n

F\u00f6r mig verkar det som att Ukraina g\u00e5r f\u00f6r totalf\u00f6rnedrande rysk brakf\u00f6rlust i Ukraina.<\/p>\n

Det kan mycket v\u00e4l vara s\u00e5 (det \u00e4r absolut s\u00e5 tror jag) att Ukraina och v\u00e4st f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker f\u00f6rhandla om ett fullst\u00e4ndigt ryskt tillbakadragande och att det \u00e4r ryssarna som obstruerar.<\/p>\n

Ukraina hade direkt accepterat fullt ryskt tillbakadragande till 1991 \u00e5rs gr\u00e4nser och n\u00e4r det \u00e4r utf\u00f6rt eld upph\u00f6r, r\u00e4tt s\u00e4ker p\u00e5 det.<\/p>\n

Men s\u00e5 l\u00e4nge inte ryssarna g\u00e5r med p\u00e5 det \u00e4r maximal brakf\u00f6rlust f\u00f6r dom en god tv\u00e5a och det g\u00e5r vi emot mycket fort rimligen.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:37 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+1 Vore h\u00e4rligt om vi f\u00e5r se en v\u00e4ndning i Bakhmut och det kanske \u00e4r en vettig anfallsvektor som du \u00e4r inne p\u00e5!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:31 \u2013 Johan No.1 Det verkar g\u00f6ra ont att springa \u00f6ver banvallen i Bakhmut f\u00f6r vidare fram\u00e5t kommer dom ju 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