{"id":7749,"date":"2023-04-19T10:09:37","date_gmt":"2023-04-19T08:09:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-04-19\/"},"modified":"2023-04-19T10:09:37","modified_gmt":"2023-04-19T08:09:37","slug":"2023-04-19","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-04-19\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-04-19"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:21 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Nu \u00e4r objektiviteten som bortbl\u00e5st h\u00e4r s\u00e5 det \u00e4r v\u00e4l lika bra att man h\u00e5ller sig lite d\u00e4mpad men det var l\u00e4nge sedan man k\u00e4nde s\u00e5 pass starkt f\u00f6r att n\u00e5got skulle ta slut.<\/p>\n

Vi forts\u00e4tter \u00f6versk\u00f6ljas med v\u00e5ldsd\u00e5d mot obev\u00e4pnade civila eller krigsf\u00e5ngar, senaste var ju den som Erik14 postade med den gr\u00f6vsta tortyr som slutade i d\u00f6d f\u00f6r krigsf\u00e5ngar \u2013 precis som ISIS, bara den brinnande buren som saknas.<\/p>\n

Ibland kan man inte l\u00e5ta bli att spekulera \u2013 hade RU vunnit kriget hade dom lagt locket p\u00e5 och dr\u00e4nkt allt i psyops samtidigt som dom hade h\u00e5llit p\u00e5 exakt s\u00e5 h\u00e4r. Vi hade suttit och tyckt att exilukrainarna var jobbiga med sina \u00f6verdrifter f\u00f6r ingen kan ju h\u00e5lla p\u00e5 s\u00e5 d\u00e4r, och sen hade vi oroat oss f\u00f6r MP massakrer av v\u00e5rt eln\u00e4t ist\u00e4llet. Samtidigt som landet sakta etniskt rensats och tortyrcentralerna varit \u00f6verfulla.<\/p>\n

Den enda anledningen till att vi suttit h\u00e4r varenda dag i \u00f6ver ett \u00e5r \u00e4r f\u00f6r att UA vinner, alla gillar en vinnare.
\nDom \u00e4r inte bara vinnare dom \u00e4r ocks\u00e5 sluga, inte ens USA fick deras anfallsplaner n\u00e4r dom fr\u00e5gade, dom fick en falsk stridsplan som dom k\u00f6pte \u2013 UA litar p\u00e5 ingen.<\/p>\n

Dom har dessutom best\u00e4mt sig f\u00f6r att inte sluta innan landet \u00e4r befriat till 1991 \u00e5rs gr\u00e4nser. Zelenskys tal var mycket starkt i vanlig ordning.<\/p>\n

Dom sl\u00e5r mig ocks\u00e5 som r\u00e4tt pragmatiska s\u00e5 uppfattar dom att ett s\u00f6nderfallet Ryssland \u00e4r b\u00e4ttre framledes s\u00e5 kan dom nog p\u00e5 frivillig v\u00e4g hj\u00e4lpa sina br\u00f6der och systrar i Ryssland att \u00e5terf\u00e5 sin frihet.<\/p>\n

Fr\u00e5n den information vi har att f\u00f6rh\u00e5lla oss till, antingen RU numer\u00e4r fr\u00e5n Januari som officiellt kommunicerades fr\u00e5n UA eller den senaste l\u00e4ckan fr\u00e5n USA s\u00e5 ser det inte bra ut f\u00f6r ryssarna alls.<\/p>\n

Dom har helt enkelt inte tillr\u00e4ckligt med spetsf\u00f6rband f\u00f6r att g\u00e5 i f\u00f6rsvar p\u00e5 n\u00e5gon front och f\u00f6r att ha m\u00f6jlighet att klara ett f\u00f6rsvar m\u00e5ste dom poola ihop f\u00f6rband fr\u00e5n andra fronter, och f\u00f6rsvaga andra fronter.<\/p>\n

Ryssarna kommer mycket snart tvingas v\u00e4lja igen.<\/p>\n

Vi har twitterrykten p\u00e5 att dom b\u00f6rjar f\u00f6rbereda evakuering av omr\u00e5det bakom s\u00f6dra fronten men inte kan dom v\u00e4l \u00f6verge den fronten frivilligt utan det \u00e4r mer av en f\u00f6rsiktighets\u00e5tg\u00e4rd i h\u00e4ndelse av genombrott?
\nDet har varit uppe i tr\u00e5den redan s\u00e5 god femma p\u00e5 den.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/Flash_news_ua\/status\/1648395121145028624?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

Norra Luhansk kan man d\u00e4remot misstanka att dom \u00f6verger f\u00f6rst n\u00e4r det kniper, dels f\u00f6r att dra ihop f\u00f6rsvar till staden Luhansk men ocks\u00e5 till staden Donetsk och Horlivka. Man har helt enkelt inte f\u00f6rband gripbara p\u00e5 andra frontavsnitt och att f\u00f6rst\u00e4rka dessa omr\u00e5den torde vara prioriterat?<\/p>\n

Fl\u00f6g f\u00f6rbi att VDVs tilldelade strvkompani har slut p\u00e5 ammunition i Bakhmut, jag finner alltid s\u00e5nt h\u00e4r h\u00f6gintressant f\u00f6r det signalerar st\u00f6rningar i underh\u00e5llet p\u00e5 det Prioriterade frontavsnittet.<\/p>\n

Vi vet att vid n\u00e5got av anfallen vid Vuhledar fick anfallande f\u00f6rband reducerad tilldelning av ammunition s\u00e5 det med normal ammunitionstillg\u00e5ng inte ens hade r\u00e4ckt dagen ut. Kanske ren cynism fr\u00e5n ryssarna f\u00f6r att dom inte f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntades leva dagen ut men det \u00e4r inte smart krigf\u00f6ring s\u00e5 det b\u00f6r ha framtvingats av ammunitionsbrist.<\/p>\n

G\u00e5r man vidare i den tankeg\u00e5ngen s\u00e5 \u00e4r det inte speciellt stora omr\u00e5den ryssarna beg\u00e5r anfall i nu, ett par fokuspunkter.<\/p>\n

Det s\u00e4ger iallafall mig att det ser illa ut f\u00f6r deras underh\u00e5llskedja (igen\u2026).<\/p>\n

Det har flugit f\u00f6rbi bilder p\u00e5 interi\u00f6ren av T90 som skickades till USA och den var i bedr\u00f6vligt skick. Tidigt i kriget s\u00e5g vi T72 med bedr\u00f6vlig interi\u00f6r och alla utgick ifr\u00e5n att dom b\u00f6rjade med de risiga vagnarna men om T90 ser likadan ut indikerar det att allt \u00e4r i olika stadier av f\u00f6rfall rimligen?<\/p>\n

Erik14 postade ig\u00e5r att UA smashade p\u00e5 291st motorized regiment och fick om inte genombrott s\u00e5 iallafall framdrivning.
\nEnligt Defmon ligger regementet lite l\u00e4ngre \u00f6sterut \u00e4n den plats striden skulle ha skett.
\nMin tolkning \u00e4r att f\u00f6rbandet l\u00e5g i anfallsvektorn genom den dominerande terr\u00e4ngen (i mitten).
\nFaktum \u00e4r v\u00e4l att de flesta spaningsstriderna har varit mot denna anfallsvektor sedan \u00f6ver en m\u00e5nad tillbaka nu?
\nAnledningen att det g\u00f6r rundorna \u00e4r f\u00f6r att varje g\u00e5ng dom trycker p\u00e5 kommer dom l\u00e4ngre \u00e4n vad dom f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntade sig.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1648414262899924993?s=46&t=rO_LFs49f1ndL80CnhsUww<\/a><\/p>\n

S\u00e5g ni denna?
\nUA inte bara stoppad ryskt anfallsf\u00f6rs\u00f6k uppe vid Kupiansk (rimligen N d\u00e4rom d\u00e4r dom tydligen fortfarande f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker) och inte nog med det \u2013 dom slog tillbaka ryssarna, \u201dflykt\u201d.
\nhttps:\/\/www.ukrinform.net\/rubric-ato\/3697343-ukrainian-troops-stop-offensive-attempt-forcing-russians-to-flee-in-kupyansk-direction.html<\/a><\/p>\n

Vi har bra grepp p\u00e5 UA f\u00f6rluster nu, -50 000st d\u00f6da, 1:3 eller 1:4 i s\u00e5rade, +80% tillbaka p\u00e5 f\u00f6rband och 7000st saknade och tillf\u00e5ngatagna.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/KyivIndependent\/status\/1648372239451013142?s=20<\/a> <\/p>\n

Nu f\u00f6rst\u00e5r ju alla att har man mobiliserat s\u00e5 man har man\u00f6verbrigader i storleksordningen 500 000st s\u00e5 \u00e4r dom h\u00e4r f\u00f6rlusterna absorberbara och brigaderna har bibeh\u00e5llet stridsv\u00e4rde.<\/p>\n

Jag ser inget sk\u00e4l att ifr\u00e5gas\u00e4tta detta, siffran 7000st har flugit f\u00f6rbi m\u00e5nga g\u00e5nger, 1:3-1:4 f\u00e5r v\u00e4l anses vara rimligt, det har g\u00e5tt upp fr\u00e5n 15 000st till under 50 000st sedan i h\u00f6stas n\u00e5n g\u00e5ng och dom har bevisligen bra stridssjukv\u00e5rdare och hela v\u00e4st bist\u00e5r v\u00e4l med sjukv\u00e5rd kan man gissa?<\/p>\n

V\u00e4ntans tider.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:07 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+100 <\/p>\n

Hade Ryssland lyckats vinna snabbt i b\u00f6rjan av kriget tror jag inte det skett n\u00e5got allm\u00e4nt folkmord. Motst\u00e5ndare skulle f\u00f6rst\u00e5s ha f\u00e4ngslats och s\u00e4kert torterats f\u00f6r att avsl\u00f6ja andra men jag tror att det skulle stannat d\u00e4r.
\nSkulle de mot f\u00f6rmodan lyckas vinna s\u00e5 h\u00e4r l\u00e5ngt in i kriget tror jag att det skulle sluta i blodbad och att ditt scenario skulle bli resultatet.. Ukraina M\u00c5STE helt enkelt vinna!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:21 \u2013 Johan No.1 Nu \u00e4r objektiviteten som bortbl\u00e5st h\u00e4r s\u00e5 det \u00e4r v\u00e4l lika bra att man h\u00e5ller sig […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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