{"id":7755,"date":"2023-04-25T09:33:36","date_gmt":"2023-04-25T07:33:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-04-25\/"},"modified":"2023-04-25T09:33:36","modified_gmt":"2023-04-25T07:33:36","slug":"2023-04-25","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-04-25\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-04-25"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:28 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

UA har tydligen gett sig p\u00e5 Krimbron igen?
\nBra med betatester.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1649735275935940609?s=46&t=8tpfD5uJJtBWnUCe2_YFbg<\/a><\/p>\n

Sen var det anfall med sj\u00f6g\u00e5ende dr\u00f6nare mot Sevastopol och dom har hittat en till dr\u00f6nare n\u00e4ra Moskva med 17kg spr\u00e4ngmedel som st\u00f6rtat.<\/p>\n

Har ni noterat att land efter land i EU och v\u00e4st g\u00e5r ut formellt och meddelar att dom inte har synpunkter p\u00e5 om UA sl\u00e5r mot milit\u00e4ra m\u00e5l inne i landet Ryssland. Tyskland b\u00f6rjade v\u00e4l, skiner varje dag just nu.<\/p>\n

Tidigare har det varit ytterst k\u00e4nsligt med m\u00e5l inne i Ryssland men nu \u00e4r vi f\u00f6rbi det \u2013 h\u00e4rligt f\u00f6r alla utom Ryssland n\u00e4r molnet med 100 000st sj\u00e4lvmordsdr\u00f6nare drar fram som en b\u00e4ttre gr\u00e4shoppssv\u00e4rm.<\/p>\n

Man kan s\u00e4kert sl\u00e5 ut rysslands elinfrastruktur med n\u00e5gra hundra dr\u00f6nare om man nu f\u00e5r f\u00f6r sig att det \u00e4r ett milit\u00e4rt m\u00e5l, ryssarna tycker ju tydligen det och EU har ju inte direkt f\u00f6rklarat krig \u00f6ver det krigsbrottet.<\/p>\n

Vid Dnepr har jag f\u00e5tt intrycket av att det som h\u00e4nt \u00e4r att RU drog sig tillbaka i ett omr\u00e5de just S om Antonovskybron till bakom\/\u00d6 om en flod eller \u00e5, ett mindre vattendrag.<\/p>\n

Exakt hur mycket UA k\u00f6rt \u00f6ver \u00e4r inte klart f\u00f6r mig men RU har \u00f6vergett en del land p\u00e5 Dnepr v\u00e4nstra strand. Brohuvud \u00e4r kanske lite att ta i h\u00e4r men det \u00e4r en etablering av n\u00e5gon storlek UA styrka (spaning eller infanteri) och RU drog sig tillbaka fr\u00e5n ett geografiskt omr\u00e5de som avgr\u00e4nsas av ett vattendrag.<\/p>\n

Sen pratades det om i twitterrymden att RU f\u00f6rs\u00f6kt \u00e5terta omr\u00e5det med stridsvagn men det verkar vara sankt och ett vattendrag emellan s\u00e5 oklart hur det gick.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/Militarylandnet\/status\/1650082392428642305?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

R\u00e4tt klart att det \u00e4r Putin som vinner kriget \u00e5t Ukraina h\u00e4r, generalstaben vill g\u00e5 i f\u00f6rsvar men Putin kr\u00e4ver fortsatt offensiv \u2013 tjohoo.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r ju inte sv\u00e5rt att lista ut att han vill ha n\u00e5got att visa upp 9 Maj \u2013 han vill ha en seger vilken som helst.
\nAllt som g\u00e5r och d\u00f6r f\u00f6r denna seger hade kunnat g\u00e5 i f\u00f6rsvar om dom inte g\u00e5tt och d\u00f6tt f\u00f6r Putins seger.<\/p>\n

Man dr\u00e4nerar de sista reserverna f\u00f6r att ingen v\u00e5gar be en gammal och ytterst l\u00e5ngt g\u00e5ngen diktator att det \u00e4r kritiskt att man f\u00e5r g\u00e5 i f\u00f6rsvar ist\u00e4llet \u2013 mer s\u00e5nt, mycket mer s\u00e5nt, 9 Maj \u00e4r viktigt, Bakhmut \u00e4r viktigt, mer d\u00f6d.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/anno1540\/status\/1650114421820194818?s=46&t=SO3K51o8S2-Aq4wWBREtwQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Vi har ju sett hur de ryska stridsvagnarna ser ut inuti, den T90 som k\u00f6rdes till USA var i ett miserabelt skick.<\/p>\n

UA egna T64 har f\u00e5tt digitala paneler i sin uppdatering 2022. \u00c4r ju inte n\u00e5t s\u00e5 h\u00e4ftigt som eldr\u00f6ret \u00e4ven om dom ocks\u00e5 \u00e4r utslitna p\u00e5 ryssarnas vagnar men det signalerar att UA sk\u00f6ter om sin materiel p\u00e5 ett helt annat s\u00e4tt.<\/p>\n

RU stridsvagnspark skall ju dels fungera mekaniskt, sen skall riktmedel osv. vara installerat, kompetenta bes\u00e4ttningar och till sist ammunition. RU verkar ha sv\u00e5righeter i hela kedjan h\u00e4r.<\/p>\n

UA har det inte \u2013 hela europa hj\u00e4lps \u00e5t att serva gammalt sovjetpansar och know-how finns i UA, komponenterna finns i UA, ammunitionen finns och erfarna bes\u00e4ttningar finns.<\/p>\n

Utklassning.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1650039163570335744?s=46&t=SO3K51o8S2-Aq4wWBREtwQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Samtidigt som de ondskefulla ryssarna experimenterar med olika storlek p\u00e5 sj\u00e4lvmordsanfallen har UA p\u00e5 bredd f\u00f6rs\u00f6kt utveckla fj\u00e4rrstyrda ksp-plattformar.<\/p>\n

UA vill spara liv, RU provar olika s\u00e4tt att offra mer liv f\u00f6r att vinna \u2013 tsartiden n\u00e4r den var som v\u00e4rst mot 2023.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/friaukraina\/status\/1650458905724571649?s=46&t=_YYiNHlvj319IVX0iU-HVQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Tittar man p\u00e5 f\u00f6rbandskartorna s\u00e5 \u00e4r det 20st mekbrigader eller liknande som inte \u00e4r vid aktiv front \u2013 jag har v\u00e4l tjatat om den numer\u00e4ren ett bra tag nu men tycker det \u00e4r s\u00e5 viktigt att jag inte kan sluta.<\/p>\n

Det flyger f\u00f6rbi filmer p\u00e5 soldaterna i Bakhmut d\u00e4r dom flesta odlat sk\u00e4gg och \u00e4r p\u00e5tagligt utmattade.<\/p>\n

Sen ser vi filmerna p\u00e5 helt fr\u00e4scha f\u00f6rband med v\u00e4stmateriel som nu dessutom \u00e4r m\u00e5lat i UA camo.<\/p>\n

F\u00f6r mig \u00e4r det helt uppenbart att man vilat och tr\u00e4nat ett stort antal brigader samtidigt som man l\u00e5tit ett n\u00f6dv\u00e4ndigt antal g\u00f6ra slitg\u00f6rat vid fronterna, f\u00f6r att kunna f\u00f6rbereda den offensiva sm\u00e4llen.<\/p>\n

S\u00e5 fort offensiven drar ig\u00e5ng f\u00e5r dessa f\u00f6rband avl\u00f6sning och kan rotera.<\/p>\n

Tittar man p\u00e5 f\u00f6rbanden vid aktiv front \u00e4r det lika uppenbart att dom roterar en bataljon \u00e5t g\u00e5ngen i stridslinjen och vilar resten.<\/p>\n

Om man f\u00e5r gissa g\u00e5r de utvilade, tr\u00e4nade och nyutrustade 20st brigaderna f\u00f6rst men det finns d\u00e4refter ett mycket stort antal brigader som \u00e4r i gott skick och kan deltaga i offensiva operationer.<\/p>\n

Och ut\u00f6ver det n\u00e5gra rej\u00e4lt slitna som beh\u00f6ver sitta ut kriget som f\u00f6rsvar p\u00e5 ej aktiv front.<\/p>\n

Vi fick ett nummer p\u00e5 reserverna i Ryssland av Budanov \u2013 120 000st.
\nL\u00e4gg det till numer\u00e4ren i l\u00e4ckan s\u00e5 har vi v\u00e4l totalen?<\/p>\n

Ser kolsvart ut f\u00f6r den kaviar\u00e4tande Slemgnomen \ud83d\udc4c<\/p>\n

N\u00e4r chefen-reserven f\u00e5r ett samtal fr\u00e5n en pratskrikande arm\u00e9chef i Ukraina att dom m\u00e5ste skicka in reserverna \u00e4r det redan f\u00f6r sent. Det r\u00f6r p\u00e5 sig p\u00e5 alla fronter och UA st\u00e5r och hoppar mitt inne i beslutscirkeln.<\/p>\n

Detta f\u00f6rklarar ocks\u00e5 varf\u00f6r det \u00e4r s\u00e5 f\u00e5 spetsf\u00f6rband vid de aktiva fronterna i l\u00e4ckan \u2013 120 000st \u00e4r i olika stadier av tr\u00e4ning.<\/p>\n

Det enda som kan r\u00e4dda kaviar\u00e4taren \u00e4r en allm\u00e4n mobilisering d\u00e4r man trycker ut n\u00e5n miljon i f\u00f6rsvar i Ukraina och att det helt enkelt \u00e4r f\u00f6r m\u00e5nga f\u00f6r UA att m\u00e4kta med.<\/p>\n

Vi har redan sett hur pass d\u00e5ligt skick det \u00e4r p\u00e5 ryska f\u00f6rband sedan 6 Januari och det det \u00e4r faktiskt enklare att springa fram\u00e5t mot en punkt och d\u00f6 och \u00f6ver tid ta sig fram\u00e5t n\u00e5n kilometer genom att offra egna f\u00f6rband \u00e4n att f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka g\u00e5 i f\u00f6rsvar och absorbera combined arms warfare.<\/p>\n

Den typen av anfall kr\u00e4ver mycket lite initiativf\u00f6rm\u00e5ga medans ett effektivt f\u00f6rsvar som v\u00e4l kopierar Desert Storm rakt av kr\u00e4ver sin man.<\/p>\n

Jag \u00e4r av \u00e5sikten att VDV, Marininfanteriet, Spetznaz och spaning hos ryska laget \u00e4r i d\u00e5ligt skick nu och kanske runt +50 000st kvarvarande.<\/p>\n

Det var de f\u00f6rband som skulle kunna s\u00e4tta upp n\u00e5gon typ av f\u00f6rsvar mot UA och det surrade ett twitterrykte att VDV st\u00e5r f\u00f6r linje 4 i v\u00e4rnsystemen vid s\u00f6dra fronten. F\u00f6rsta linjen \u00e4r f\u00f6rbrukningsvara, sen blir det v\u00e4l lite b\u00e4ttre utrustade och sen i fj\u00e4rde linjen den (relativa) elit man har.<\/p>\n

Problemet enligt twitterryktet var att linje 4 nu \u00e4r tom f\u00f6r VDV har stridit p\u00e5 andra platser \u2013 st\u00e4mmer det \u00e4r det sensation men som sagt twitterrykte\u2026<\/p>\n

Sen OM det var VDV i 4 linjen, vilka \u00e4r d\u00e5 insatsstyrka?<\/p>\n

Vid Kherson var VDV alltid insatsstyrkan och gjorde livet surt f\u00f6r UA n\u00e4r dom br\u00f6t igenom, dom verkar inte ha den f\u00f6rm\u00e5gan l\u00e4ngre.<\/p>\n

V\u00e4dret \u00e4r r\u00e4tt trist, verkar som det skall regna n\u00e5gon vecka till. Jag ser filmer p\u00e5 b\u00e5de gyttja och att marken b\u00e4r och positiv som man \u00e4r \u00f6vertolkar man v\u00e4l \u00e5t det positiva kanske.<\/p>\n

Att marken m\u00e5ste b\u00e4ra \u00e4r v\u00e4l centralt i stridsplanen om man f\u00e5r gissa, Lex Barbarossa.
\n\u00c4r av \u00e5sikten att det \u00e4r ett special\u00e5r med La Nina f\u00f6r vi hade varm vinter och snorkall Mars.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:50 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Verkar tyv\u00e4rr bara vara att forts\u00e4tta v\u00e4nta ett tag till men #SpringIsComing!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:55 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Vi f\u00e5r gl\u00e4djas \u00e5t det lilla \u2013 UA har tagit lite l\u00e4ttf\u00f6rsvarad mark p\u00e5 Dnepr v\u00e4nstra strand och RU har helt tappat sugen i Bakhmut trots att dom sent f\u00f6rband fr\u00e5n norra Luhansk, Avdiivka och kanske s\u00f6dra fronten dit \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Jag tyckte de f\u00f6rnyade betatesterna av Krimbron var kul ocks\u00e5, k\u00e4nns livat.<\/p>\n

Men jo, finns en stor oro som bara kan botas med chips och dipp att UA v\u00e4ntar f\u00f6r l\u00e4nge s\u00e5 RU hinner komma i ordning.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:28 \u2013 Johan No.1 UA har tydligen gett sig p\u00e5 Krimbron igen? Bra med betatester. https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1649735275935940609?s=46&t=8tpfD5uJJtBWnUCe2_YFbg Sen var det anfall […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[18,33],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7755","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-ukraina","category-arkiv01"],"yoast_head":"\n2023-04-25 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-04-25\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2023-04-25 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"10:28 \u2013 Johan No.1 UA har tydligen gett sig p\u00e5 Krimbron igen? 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