{"id":7756,"date":"2023-04-26T10:32:49","date_gmt":"2023-04-26T08:32:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-04-26\/"},"modified":"2023-04-26T10:32:49","modified_gmt":"2023-04-26T08:32:49","slug":"2023-04-26","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-04-26\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-04-26"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:19 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Har ni f\u00f6ljt twittergudarna vet ni att det \u00e4r frontn\u00e4ra f\u00f6rbek\u00e4mpning av Dnepr v\u00e4nstra strand just nu.<\/p>\n

Korsandet av Dnepr har vi v\u00e4l diskuterat och det \u00e4r v\u00e4l n\u00e4rmast att beskriva som en etablering av l\u00e4ttare f\u00f6rband (spaning, SOF)?<\/p>\n

I den stora f\u00e4ltt\u00e5gsplanen som postades f\u00f6r n\u00e5n m\u00e5nad eller s\u00e5 sedan gick diskussionen s\u00e5 h\u00e4r \u2013 man landsatte skytte norr om Khakovka i l\u00e4mpliga samh\u00e4llen som gick i f\u00f6rsvar med n\u00e4rPV under eget artparaply och CAS.<\/p>\n

Det skulle \u00f6ppna ett hot i flanken p\u00e5 den s\u00f6dra fronten och RU beh\u00f6vde d\u00e5 k\u00f6ra dit mek f\u00f6r att f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka sl\u00e5 dom, dom skulle uts\u00e4ttas p\u00e5 v\u00e4g av CAS, k\u00f6ra in i mineringar och sen dundra in i f\u00f6rsvaret och sl\u00e5s ut av artilleri.<\/p>\n

Med tanke p\u00e5 hur uselt dom krigat hittills hade det d\u00e4r nog fungerat ypperligt.<\/p>\n

Tanken var att dom d\u00e5 beh\u00f6vde dra f\u00f6rband fr\u00e5n s\u00f6dra fronten till detta s\u00e5 f\u00f6rsvaret tunnades ut och sen kunde UA klippa till d\u00e4r.<\/p>\n

Nu vet vi v\u00e4l idag att RU har ungef\u00e4r 15 000st i omr\u00e5det mot Dnepr vilket \u00e4r en obehaglig numer\u00e4r.<\/p>\n

Men vi vet ocks\u00e5 att UA har 3st Marines brigader, 3st Mek, 1 Pansar och ett g\u00e4ng territorial.<\/p>\n

Vi diskuterade v\u00e4l f\u00f6r n\u00e5n vecka sedan att tjusningen med marininfanteriet n\u00e4r dom nu finns i omr\u00e5det \u00e4r att dom kan landstiga inte bara \u00f6ver Dnepr men ocks\u00e5 l\u00e4ngs med kusten mellan Kinburn Spit och Krimbroarna f\u00f6r att \u00f6ppna ett tredje hot.<\/p>\n

Att ryssarna skulle kunna parera det ser jag som h\u00f6gst osannolikt och s\u00f6dra fronten b\u00f6r kollapsa omg\u00e5ende.
\nAnsamlingen av f\u00f6rband signalerar att man kanske har en h\u00f6gre ambition \u00e4n att landstiga med skytte i f\u00f6rsvar?
\nJag tycker det r\u00f6r p\u00e5 sig kring Dnepr i alla fall.<\/p>\n

Vid s\u00f6dra fronten ser jag inte den uppbyggnad p\u00e5 f\u00f6rbandskartorna som man kunnat f\u00f6rv\u00e4nta sig (\u00e4nnu) men det finns totalt 20st brigader som inte \u00e4r vi aktiv front och \u00e5tminstone +10st av dom \u00e4r i n\u00e4romr\u00e5det s\u00f6dra fronten. Det tar en dag eller tv\u00e5 att k\u00f6ra fram dom.<\/p>\n

Vid Bakhmut har UA f\u00f6rt fram tillr\u00e4ckligt med f\u00f6rband idag f\u00f6r en offensiv \u2013 deras offensiva f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga \u00e4r mycket h\u00f6g.<\/p>\n

F\u00f6r mig ser det ut som f\u00f6rdr\u00f6jningsstriden p\u00e5g\u00e5r fortfarande, enligt Gregg lugnade det ned sig men p\u00e5 Deepstatemap har det varit mycket f\u00f6rlorad terr\u00e4ng senaste veckan.<\/p>\n

Enligt manualen f\u00f6r f\u00f6rdr\u00f6jningsstrid drar man sig mot v\u00e4st tills man beh\u00f6ver urn\u00e4stla och d\u00e5 g\u00f6r man det \u2013 det \u00e4r ingen f\u00f6rlust det \u00e4r f\u00f6rdr\u00f6jningsstrid och smart krigf\u00f6ring.<\/p>\n

Allts\u00e5 \u2013 drar man sig ur bebyggelsen i Bakhmut \u00e4r det helt enligt planen f\u00f6r f\u00f6rdr\u00f6jningsstriden och det mest f\u00f6rv\u00e5nande \u00e4r v\u00e4l hur l\u00e5ng tid det tagit att EVENTUELLT komma hit.<\/p>\n

OM nu ryssarna har f\u00f6r avsikt att \u00f6ka intensiteten f\u00f6r n\u00e5n typ av avg\u00f6rande offensiv.<\/p>\n

De 120 000st som finns kvar i ryska tr\u00e4ningsl\u00e4ger \u2013 innan dom kan vara effektiva f\u00f6r ett f\u00f6rsvar det m\u00e5ste rimligen vara n\u00e5n m\u00e5nad bort efter order om f\u00f6rflyttning getts?<\/p>\n

Jag tror inte s\u00f6dra fronten kommer vara n\u00e5gonting annat \u00e4n en rysk oorganiserad retr\u00e4tt och Kuwait Highway 2.0 n\u00e4r dom skall f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka n\u00e5 Krim.<\/p>\n

Krim \u00e4r mycket enkelt \u2013 positionera HIMARS och ladda upp med sj\u00e4lvmordsdr\u00f6nare och jobba mot alla m\u00e5l \u00f6ver hela Krim i n\u00e5n vecka s\u00e5 nederlagsdoktrinen sprider sig som en l\u00f6peld.<\/p>\n

G\u00e5 sen ut med att man klipper bron \u00f6ver Kertj en vecka senare och f\u00f6rbered X brigader f\u00f6r anfall mot Krim s\u00e5 det syns.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r h\u00f6gst sannolikt att det blir en omfattande spontan retr\u00e4tt \u00f6ver Krimbron.<\/p>\n

Blir det inte det har marininfanteriet m\u00f6jlighet att anfalla \u00f6ver hela kusten och mek jobbar sig ned\u00e5t fr\u00e5n krimbroarna \u00f6ver till fastlandet \u2013 det g\u00e5r det ocks\u00e5.<\/p>\n

De f\u00f6rband som idag \u00e4r nere p\u00e5 Krim \u00e4r inte spetsen \u2013 det \u00e4r kockarna, mekanikerna och diverse annat.
\nDen spets som retirerar ned dit \u00e4r d\u00e5 redan skakade efter retr\u00e4tt ned fr\u00e5n s\u00f6dra fronten.<\/p>\n

Norra Luhansk \u00e4r v\u00e4l idag m\u00f6jlig att sl\u00e5 sig fram igenom och dom har hittills dragit f\u00f6rband d\u00e4rifr\u00e5n till alla andra frontavsnitt vilket skulle kunna signalera att omr\u00e5det har l\u00e4gre prioritet?<\/p>\n

Dock s\u00e5 \u00e4r det n\u00e4rmsta omr\u00e5det att f\u00f6rst\u00e4rka norra Luhansk n\u00e4r de 120 000st i tr\u00e4ningsl\u00e4gren f\u00e5r marschorder.<\/p>\n

Min gissning \u00e4r att n\u00e4r man m\u00e5ste v\u00e4lja om man vill f\u00f6rsvara Horlivka, staden Donetsk och staden Luhansk, d\u00e5 \u00f6verger man norra Luhansk.<\/p>\n

Hela omr\u00e5det \u00d6 om Bakhmut \u2013 Siversk linjen ryker nog r\u00e4tt fort om man f\u00e5r gissa.<\/p>\n

Jag \u00e4r av \u00e5sikten att det f\u00f6religger ett tankefel h\u00e4r \u2013 eftersom RU ligger i f\u00f6rsvar kommer UA ta proportionellt mycket h\u00f6gre f\u00f6rluster i kommande offensiv.<\/p>\n

F\u00f6r mig \u00e4r det tydligt att UA har teknik\u00f6vertag, \u00f6vertag i kvalitet, mer ammunition och \u00f6vertag i f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga \u00e4nda upp till combined arms warfare.<\/p>\n

Jag ser v\u00e5roffensiven lite som Kuwaitkriget d\u00e4r USA l\u00e4gre numer\u00e4r v\u00e4gdes upp av Iraks usla allt.<\/p>\n

Enda skillnaden h\u00e4r \u00e4r att UA ocks\u00e5 idag har numer\u00e4ren p\u00e5 sin sida faktiskt om man skall tro l\u00e4ckorna, Budanov, UA egna uppgifter om numer\u00e4r i arm\u00e9n och antalet brigader.<\/p>\n

Det skall bli mycket roligt att se n\u00e4r kriget \u00e4r slut hur n\u00e4ra vi var olika numer\u00e4r men UA har f\u00f6rberett sig ypperligt f\u00f6r denna sin avg\u00f6rande offensiv.<\/p>\n

Ni ser ju alla filmerna och att allt \u00e4r f\u00f6rbandssatt nu.<\/p>\n

V\u00e4ntans tider.<\/p>\n

#putindinglandesif\u00f6tternaienbensinmacksomenlevandepinhata
\n(n\u00e4r den hashtaggen tar fart blir jag rik).<\/p>\n

Jag k\u00e4nner att mitt deltagande g\u00e5tt ned mer \u00e4n lovligt mycket men snart har jag listat ut hur man myglar.
\nDen sprattlande pinhatan h\u00e4ngandes fr\u00e5n bensinmacken kommer g\u00f6ra mitt \u00e5r.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:04 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+1<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:17 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

+1<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:23 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Hohoho \u2013 Kina + Ukraine = true \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/zelenskyyua\/status\/1651184756623802368?s=46&t=sbIUeR7sLfkjbe2D-uO4Sg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:28 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+1<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:23 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

En intressant diskussion, jag ser inte vatten som flankskydd p\u00e5 det s\u00e4ttet du g\u00f6r f\u00f6r jag tror UA f\u00f6rbereder landstigningar och d\u00e5 finns det o\u00e4ndligt med kust.<\/p>\n

Sen \u00e4r Krim avgr\u00e4nsat s\u00e5 RU kan inte f\u00f6rst\u00e4rka Krim genom att k\u00f6ra dit reserver.<\/p>\n

RU kan inte heller h\u00e5lla f\u00f6rr\u00e5d och reserver bortanf\u00f6r HIMARS avst\u00e5nd p\u00e5 Krim.<\/p>\n

Krims underh\u00e5ll klipper man med kertjbron, man har redan visat att man kan det.<\/p>\n

Sen psykologisk effekt att f\u00f6rsvaret inte har retr\u00e4ttm\u00f6jligheter.<\/p>\n

Idag finns det v\u00e4l inte mycket spetsf\u00f6rband d\u00e4rnere och de som kommer retirera ned dit beh\u00f6ver sj\u00e4lva passera flaskhalsen och kan nog decimeras r\u00e4tt rej\u00e4lt.<\/p>\n

Vi f\u00e5r se helt enkelt \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:22 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Har ni sett denna?<\/p>\n

Isolerad h\u00e4ndelse, tror inte det.<\/p>\n

Sin egen v\u00e4rsta fiende.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1651439228054646784?s=46&t=5rncOCQRVU7TopXHeLEXpw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12:19 \u2013 Johan No.1 Har ni f\u00f6ljt twittergudarna vet ni att det \u00e4r frontn\u00e4ra f\u00f6rbek\u00e4mpning av Dnepr v\u00e4nstra strand just 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