{"id":7757,"date":"2023-04-27T10:21:57","date_gmt":"2023-04-27T08:21:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-04-27\/"},"modified":"2023-04-27T10:21:57","modified_gmt":"2023-04-27T08:21:57","slug":"2023-04-27","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-04-27\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-04-27"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:22 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Oron f\u00f6r att det inte blir genombrott \u00e4r stor men the force \u00e4r st\u00f6rre (positiv-forcen) och ljussabeln \u00e4r ljusbl\u00e5.<\/p>\n

Vid s\u00f6dra fronten s\u00e5 str\u00e4cker sig f\u00f6rsta f\u00f6rsvarslinjen fr\u00e5n Dnepr till S om Vuhledar n\u00e5gonstans.
\nDen \u00e4r av olika kvalitet men ryssarna har byggt den i sitt anletes svett sedan i v\u00e5ras.
\nVid n\u00e5got tillf\u00e4lle (tidig h\u00f6st?) b\u00f6rjade dom bygga en andra, tredje och tydligen fj\u00e4rde linje.
\nDom \u00e4r v\u00e4l inte kontinuerliga utan i dominerande terr\u00e4ng.<\/p>\n

Man har byggt dom n\u00e4r det var varmt ute s\u00e5 vattendrag ans\u00e5gs ej passerbara s\u00e5 mineringarna ligger v\u00e4l inte bakom vattendrag till exempel.<\/p>\n

UA har hela tiden kartlagt mineringar och f\u00f6rsvar och ni har ju alla sett OSINTARNA h\u00f6guppl\u00f6sta satellitbilder s\u00e5 UA har \u00e4nnu b\u00e4ttre underlag \u00e4n s\u00e5 \u2013 dom vet vad som finns var.<\/p>\n

Nu verkar UA ha fokus p\u00e5 anfallsvektorn i mitten som \u00e4r dominerande terr\u00e4ng.<\/p>\n

S\u00e5 fort dom kommit upp p\u00e5 den \u00e4r det v\u00e4l l\u00e4ttare att arbeta sig fram\u00e5t i n\u00e5n typ av skydd t\u00e4nker jag \u00e4n \u00f6ver de vida f\u00e4lten?<\/p>\n

Sen n\u00e4r dom g\u00e5r i f\u00f6rsvar h\u00e5ller dom den dominerande terr\u00e4ngen.<\/p>\n

Bryter man igenom p\u00e5 en plats \u00e4r hela f\u00f6rsvarslinjen sen obsolet \u2013 Lex Maginotlinjen.<\/p>\n

Allt f\u00f6rsvar man d\u00e5 byggt \u00e4r inte l\u00e4ngre anv\u00e4ndbart och man f\u00e5r retirera till n\u00e4sta linje.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r sannolikt att UA till exempel kommer anv\u00e4nda brol\u00e4ggare \u00f6ver vattendrag f\u00f6r att helt passera minf\u00e4lt och dom har ett mycket stort antal brol\u00e4ggare nu.<\/p>\n

Sen f\u00f6rst\u00e5r v\u00e4l alla att det finns ointagliga punkter och att det finns uruselt f\u00f6rberedda str\u00e4ckor av de h\u00e4r f\u00f6rsvarslinjerna.<\/p>\n

Det ligger lite i tricket att s\u00f6ka genombrott att hitta den svaga passerbara punkten.<\/p>\n

Offensivstart \u00e4r inte l\u00e5ngt bort \u2013 veckor.<\/p>\n

Sen blir det v\u00e4l rimligen en gradvis \u00f6kning, anfaller man \u00f6ver alla fronter gemensamt datum och samma klockslag har man g\u00e5tt fr\u00e5n wizardlevel till champion-level.<\/p>\n

Jag tror brigaderna har f\u00f6nster att f\u00f6rh\u00e5lla tig till och sen har dom ett geografiskt omr\u00e5de och D-A p\u00e5 kartan i djup som \u00e4r anfallsm\u00e5len. Dom bryter ned det i bataljoner och bataljon blir v\u00e4l den sammanh\u00e5llna enheten d\u00e4r bataljonschefen direkt stridsleder.<\/p>\n

Det k\u00e4nns inte r\u00e4ttvist att kalla den mycket aktiva stridsspaningen f\u00f6r offensivstart \u00e4nnu om det \u00e4r vad vi k\u00e4nner till.<\/p>\n

Finns flera sk\u00e4l till att det blir v\u00e5ldsam offensiv med mycket d\u00f6d \u2013 9 Maj \u00e4r viktigt f\u00f6r ryssarna, v\u00e4ntar man f\u00f6r l\u00e4nge st\u00e4rker dom upp mer, man har ett enormt antal brigader ute i f\u00e4lt nu och stridsv\u00e4rdet sjunker \u00f6ver tid och ammunitions och drivmedelsdep\u00e5er kommer loggas av ryssarna \u00f6ver tid och skjutas ut.<\/p>\n

Offensiven \u00e4r resurssatt, vi ser pansar med granris p\u00e5 nu och s\u00e5nt h\u00e5ller inte alltf\u00f6r l\u00e4nge.<\/p>\n

Visst \u00e4r man orolig f\u00f6r att UA inte kommer anfalla f\u00f6rr\u00e4n det \u00e4r f\u00f6r sent och man hets\u00e4ter chips och dipp f\u00f6r att klara pressen men jag ser inga praktiska sk\u00e4l till att dom skall v\u00e4nta.<\/p>\n

Kina har ju nu etablerat diplomatiska kontakter med UA och Xi Jinping har haft ett personligt samtal med Zelensky.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/zelenskyyua\/status\/1651184756623802368?s=46&t=sbIUeR7sLfkjbe2D-uO4Sg<\/a>
\nDet \u00e4r f\u00f6r mig signifikant.<\/p>\n

Nu kanske det \u00e4r ett led i n\u00e5gon medlarroll f\u00f6r kriget, vi f\u00e5r se, men UA beh\u00f6ver ju inte s\u00e4ga jag till n\u00e5gonting eller hur?<\/p>\n

Dom har 1991 \u00e5rs gr\u00e4nser som ett h\u00f6gst rimligt krav och hela v\u00e4st bakom sig.<\/p>\n

Faktum \u00e4r att om Zelensky skulle acceptera att avst\u00e5 land idag skulle det bli inb\u00f6rdeskrig, b\u00e5gen \u00e4r sp\u00e4nd till bristningsgr\u00e4nsen och pilen m\u00e5ste avlossas, allt annat \u00e4r helt orimligt. Zelensky har m\u00e5nga talanger s\u00e5 han f\u00f6rst\u00e5r naturligtvis detta ocks\u00e5.<\/p>\n

Post-v\u00e5roffensiven om den helt k\u00f6r fast \u00e4r v\u00e4l en annan femma men den kommer inte k\u00f6ra fast det s\u00e4ger b\u00e5de Budanov och kaffesumpen.<\/p>\n

Den sammanh\u00e5llande faktorn \u00e4r att kasta ut ryss ut Ukraina, eller kick-banna dom som bloggaren s\u00e4ger om trollen i tr\u00e5den.<\/p>\n

N\u00e5r man inte upp till det finns det en enorm energi som beh\u00f6ver f\u00e5 utlopp n\u00e5gon annanstans.<\/p>\n

Det h\u00e4r \u00e4r ett helt land som under 200 \u00e5r misshandlats under det ryska-sovjetiska-ryska styret och som nu fick sin chans att ge igen. Ryssland lj\u00f6g och manipulerade sig till en ohederlig krigsstart och dom sk\u00e4ndade barn och kvinnor p\u00e5 sitt plundrart\u00e5g genom landet.<\/p>\n

Ukraina har nu f\u00f6rberett en av de slagkraftigaste offensiva resurser vi sett i modern tid och dom har ingen br\u00e5dska, dom skyndar l\u00e5ngsamt.<\/p>\n

Dom \u00e4r \u00f6vertygade om att dom kommer vinna i sommar f\u00f6r paniken och bilf\u00f6rs\u00e4ljar-leendet \u00e4r borta. Dom \u00e4r tr\u00f6tta men sj\u00e4lvs\u00e4kra och \u00f6vertygade om sin seger.<\/p>\n

Ryssarna har inget att s\u00e4tta emot, dom har spelat alla sina kort redan.<\/p>\n

I termer om offensiv s\u00e5 har UA formellt g\u00e5tt ut med att intensiteten \u00f6kat sedan 10 April.
\nSen hade vi mellan 19 \u2013 21 April ytterligare p\u00e5tagligt \u00f6kad intensitet.
\nD\u00e4remot s\u00e5 \u00e4r det inte det all-out war som alla g\u00e5r och v\u00e4ntar p\u00e5.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1651219811966263299?s=46&t=aJKAI_I0LhF4JKee4qheYw<\/a><\/p>\n

Ukraina har ett helt krig visat sig vara pragmatiska, professionella, balanserade och med full integritet och det ser man inte s\u00e5 ofta.<\/p>\n

En bl\u00e4nkare som en lysande v\u00e4ltr\u00e4nad legend med mycket h\u00e5r p\u00e5 huvudet (ej begynnande h\u00e5ravfall) postade i g\u00e5rdagens tr\u00e5d nu p\u00e5 morgonen. Det \u00e4r v\u00e4l ingen som tror att detta \u00e4r en isolerad incident och det g\u00f6r det tydligt varf\u00f6r kvarvarande T80 och T90 st\u00e5r och samlar damm i st\u00e4llet f\u00f6r att storma \u00f6ver f\u00e4lten i Ukraina \u2013 dom kan inte. Kina kan s\u00e5klart avhj\u00e4lpa det h\u00e4r \u00f6ver tid men nu \u00e4r det nog slut p\u00e5 strv.
\nDom har k\u00f6rt en afghan genom hela f\u00f6rsvarsmakten.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1651439228054646784?s=46&t=5rncOCQRVU7TopXHeLEXpw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:48 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+1 <\/p>\n

N\u00e4r man sitter h\u00e4r bakom tangentbordet och har sv\u00e5rt att klara av att v\u00e4nta p\u00e5 offensiven inser man att det m\u00e5ste vara n\u00e4st intill olidlig f\u00f6r de Ukrainska soldaterna.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:29 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Det \u00e4r en enorm energi som byggts upp inf\u00f6r denna offensiv.<\/p>\n

Jo man hoppas ju verkligen p\u00e5 ett gott sagoboksslut slut h\u00e4r \u2013 d\u00f6d ryss och Putin dinglandes fr\u00e5n bensinmacken som en brinnande pinhata.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:33 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

F\u00f6r det f\u00f6rsta \u00e4r ju ett flygplan eller hkp o\u00e4ndligt mer avancerade \u00e4n strv. <\/p>\n

Har dom k\u00f6rt en afghan med strv har dom v\u00e4l k\u00f6rt en afghan med flyg och arm\u00e9flyg ocks\u00e5 rimligen?<\/p>\n

Piloter m\u00e5ste vara bristvara.<\/p>\n

Motorer m\u00e5ste vara bristvara \u2013 ett \u00e5r har dom flugit.<\/p>\n

B\u00f6rjade droppa SU-24 f\u00f6r ett tag sedan och d\u00e5 har man v\u00e4l gr\u00e4vt lika djupt som till T55 f\u00f6r strv?<\/p>\n

Visst finns det flyg men dom skall ju ocks\u00e5 har information som \u00e4r aktuell.<\/p>\n

Jag vet att luftherrav\u00e4lde \u00e4r A-O men jag har t\u00e4nkt att LV \u00e4r tillr\u00e4ckligt f\u00f6r att iallafall f\u00f6rv\u00e4gra ryssen luftherrav\u00e4lde.<\/p>\n

Och sen anv\u00e4nder man dr\u00f6narna till att utf\u00f6ra egna flygets uppgifter?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:00 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Jag har suttit och adderat upp materielen som levererats \u2013 det \u00e4r enorma m\u00e4ngder materiel.
\nUA har 20st brigader vid ej aktiv front och 100st BRIGADER totalt.<\/p>\n

USA hade v\u00e4l 700 000st i Desert Storm totalt, UA har nog mer i hela f\u00f6rsvarsmakten.<\/p>\n

Antalet mekbrigader \u00e4r oproportionerligt stort \u2013 spetsen \u00e4r mycket stark.<\/p>\n

Jag har kanske fel men har gissat att det h\u00e4r \u00e4r n\u00e5got alldeles extra som \u00e4r p\u00e5 g\u00e5ng \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:17 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Ang\u00e5ende att RU imte har brist p\u00e5 materiel <\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1651830619092008960?s=46&t=dveBZfRoPBITNIzpKFMMUQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12:22 \u2013 Johan No.1 Oron f\u00f6r att det inte blir genombrott \u00e4r stor men the force \u00e4r st\u00f6rre (positiv-forcen) och 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