{"id":7758,"date":"2023-04-28T06:54:51","date_gmt":"2023-04-28T04:54:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-04-28\/"},"modified":"2023-04-28T06:54:51","modified_gmt":"2023-04-28T04:54:51","slug":"2023-04-28","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-04-28\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-04-28"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:52<\/h2>\n

Bakhmut \u00e4r en f\u00f6rdr\u00f6jningsstrid och den g\u00e5r m\u00f6jligen mot sitt slut \u2013 allt \u00e4r i sin ordning.<\/p>\n

Till och med Baguette-squad s\u00e4ger det och d\u00e5 \u00e4r det sant.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/tfbaguette\/status\/1651569316666519555?s=46&t=dveBZfRoPBITNIzpKFMMUQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r enorma art-f\u00f6rluster, en bataljon per dag ibland. Vi f\u00e5r inte gl\u00f6mma bort att ryskt artilleri bara r\u00e4knas om det skjuter effektivt och tr\u00e4ffar UA m\u00e5l. Att ha 1000st eldr\u00f6r p\u00e5 n\u00e5n uppst\u00e4llningsplats n\u00e5nstans r\u00e4knas inte just nu.<\/p>\n

Dom har haft problem med eldr\u00f6ren det vet vi och vi gissar att det \u00e4r brist p\u00e5 nyckelpersonal.<\/p>\n

Vi vet att n\u00e4r UA kampanj med HIMARS h\u00e4rjade som v\u00e4rst gick RU artilleribeskjutning ned med 70% ett tag pga. ammunitionsbristen.<\/p>\n

Dom \u00e5terh\u00e4mtade absolut men sen har dom haft egen offensiv sedan 6 Januari som v\u00e4l precis slutat och d\u00e5 g\u00f6r man \u00e5t astronomiska m\u00e4ngder ammunition OCH skjuter slut p\u00e5 eldr\u00f6r.<\/p>\n

L\u00e4gg d\u00e4rtill skenande artillerif\u00f6rluster i storleksordningen upp till en bataljon per dag s\u00e5 \u00e4r det v\u00e4l en l\u00e5goddsare att tro att artilleriet har existentiella problem.<\/p>\n

Jag tror att vi nu ser effekterna av minskad vs. \u00f6kad f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga.<\/p>\n

RU har s\u00e5 pass oerfarna bes\u00e4ttningar att dom st\u00e5r f\u00f6r l\u00e4nge p\u00e5 samma plats. Dom har dessutom f\u00f6r l\u00e5ng ledtid p\u00e5 informationen s\u00e5 dom klarar bara att skjuta mot fasta m\u00e5l.<\/p>\n

UA har artilleriradar, system som kan leverera d\u00f6d i m\u00e5let inom minuter och \u00f6verl\u00e4gsen informationsinh\u00e4mtning rent allm\u00e4nt.<\/p>\n

RU kommer helt enkelt inte \u00e5t UA artilleri. UA sl\u00e5r ut upp till en artilleribataljon om dagen.<\/p>\n

Vi har haft rapporter om frontn\u00e4ra bek\u00e4mpning l\u00e4ngs med Dnepr och spaningsstriderna \u00f6kar i intensitet f\u00f6r varje vecka.<\/p>\n

Vi har nu ocks\u00e5 mer exploderande i bakre och dr\u00f6naraktivitet men det har g\u00e5tt i v\u00e5gor sedan n\u00e5n m\u00e5nad eller l\u00e4ngre tillbaka.<\/p>\n

-allt \u00e4r f\u00f6rberedelser f\u00f6r offensiv.<\/p>\n

V\u00e4dret \u00e4r lite trist f\u00e5r man nog tillst\u00e5 och med minimalt intresse f\u00f6r historia s\u00e5 har man v\u00e4l f\u00e5tt till sig vad som h\u00e4nder om man har d\u00e5lig timing med v\u00e4dret \u2013 fr\u00e5ga Armfeldt.<\/p>\n

D\u00e4remot har ju lerans-betvingare Argus sl\u00e4ngt in sina sockor i ringen och deklarerat att marken nu b\u00e4r p\u00e5 vetenskapligast m\u00f6jliga s\u00e4tt \ud83d\ude00\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

Allt \u00e4r diskuterat tiotals g\u00e5nger redan \u2013 anfallsvektorer, numer\u00e4r, f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga, ambition och s\u00e5 vidare.
\nVisst \u00e4r det mycket psyops fr\u00e5n v\u00e4st och Ukraina men jag f\u00e5r absolut inte intrycket av att Ukraina f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker bluffa h\u00e4r \u2013 om RU drar sig tillbaka till 1991 \u00e5rs gr\u00e4nser \u00e4r v\u00e4l kriget slut men annars \u00e5ker dom ut.<\/p>\n

Vi har \u00e4ven haft UA m\u00f6rkerstridskapacitet uppe till diskussion \u00e5tskilliga g\u00e5nger och de som kan sin sak var av \u00e5sikten att man inte kan genomf\u00f6ra genombrott nattetid men att all framryckning efter det g\u00e5r bra.<\/p>\n

S\u00e5g att det var uppe i g\u00e5rdagens tr\u00e5d och det t\u00e5l att p\u00e5minnas om \u2013 UA har s\u00e4kert mer \u00e4n 700strv med bra m\u00f6rkerriktmedel och m\u00e5nga fler IFV.<\/p>\n

Dom har bildf\u00f6rst\u00e4rkare hur m\u00e5nga som helst s\u00e5 spetsen kan i teorin anfalla nattetid (men sen blir det ju dag efter det\u2026)<\/p>\n

RU har absolut inte den f\u00f6rm\u00e5gan l\u00e4ngre och min gissning \u00e4r att lys \u00e4r en bristvara hos ryska laget.<\/p>\n

Deras sikten \u00e4r sk1t och d\u00e5 dom \u00e4r l\u00e5ga p\u00e5 pansar \u00e4r det n\u00e4rPV och PVrobot som g\u00e4ller.<\/p>\n

Sen \u00e4r det apsv\u00e5rt att tr\u00e4ffa n\u00e5got under lys f\u00f6r skuggorna r\u00f6r sig, n\u00e4rPV blir v\u00e4ldigt sv\u00e5rjobbat nattetid.<\/p>\n

Ryska PVrobot har v\u00e4l IR eller termiska sikten men dom m\u00e5ste man montera upp n\u00e4r dr\u00f6nare med vinggranat hovrar ovanf\u00f6r och v\u00e4ntar p\u00e5 sina m\u00e5l.<\/p>\n

Jag f\u00e5r absolut k\u00e4nslan av att man dammat av desert storm och \u00e5teranv\u00e4nder d\u00e4r det g\u00e5r och annars f\u00f6rb\u00e4ttrar man.
\nMan f\u00e5r inte luftherrav\u00e4lde och den f\u00f6rbek\u00e4mpningen vi s\u00e5g mot flygbaserna \u00e4r inte samma indikator idag.
\nD\u00e4remot f\u00f6rbek\u00e4mpning av artilleri och bakre \u2013 vilket p\u00e5g\u00e5r och sen frontn\u00e4ra f\u00f6rbek\u00e4mpning vilken har startat i alla fall l\u00e4ngs Dnepr.<\/p>\n

Vilken dag dom f\u00e5r fram\u00e5t vet vi inte men dom har en enorm offensiv reserv med det senaste fr\u00e5n \u00f6versta hyllorna i europas lador.<\/p>\n

Dom har dessutom stridsvana och har v\u00e4l en f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga som \u00f6verstiger n\u00e5got annat land i EU idag.<\/p>\n

USA n\u00e4r dom hoppade p\u00e5 Irak hade inte denna stridserfarenhet till exempel som Ukraina har idag och n\u00e4r vi sett killen med b\u00e4st simultankapacitet i hela europa f\u00f6rsvara ett v\u00e4rn under 9 minuter som man fick adrenalinp\u00e5slag bara av att titta p\u00e5 s\u00e5 f\u00f6rst\u00e5r vi nog att dom har motivation, f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga och kapacitet i v\u00e4rldsklass.<\/p>\n

I \u00e4mnet brist p\u00e5 PV vapen presenterar jag iranska PV robotar hos ryssarna, en kornet-kopia. Iran skulle beh\u00f6va dras i \u00f6rat efter det h\u00e4r och framf\u00f6rallt kan vi v\u00e4l bara konstatera att sanktioner funkar r\u00e4tt d\u00e5ligt f\u00f6r dom kan exportera robotar, dr\u00f6nare, PV robotar och stora m\u00e4ngder ammunition till Ryssland som dom v\u00e4l tillverkat mitt under brinnande sanktioner.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1651830619092008960?s=46&t=dveBZfRoPBITNIzpKFMMUQ<\/a><\/p>\n

Ang\u00e5ende UA vapen s\u00e5 har frivilliga crowdfundat ihop 101st APC (obev\u00e4pnade gissar jag).
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/serhiyprytula\/status\/1651637686652870686?s=46&t=dveBZfRoPBITNIzpKFMMUQ<\/a><\/p>\n

P\u00e5 filmerna fr\u00e5n Bakhmut och andra hotspots ser soldaterna farligt utmattade ut. \u00c4r ingen psykolog men gissar att det h\u00e4r \u00e4r permanents skador man tar av att vistas f\u00f6r l\u00e4nge i s\u00e5dana milj\u00f6er och att \u00e4ven om man \u00f6verlever f\u00e5r man mycket sv\u00e5ra men som \u00e4r n\u00e4rmast obotliga.<\/p>\n

Nu skulle UA kanske roterat f\u00f6rbanden mer och dom hade s\u00e4kert klarat det men det \u00e4r v\u00e4l olika vapenslag, f\u00f6rberedelse f\u00f6r offensiva reserver och h\u00e5rda strider s\u00e5 s\u00e4kerligen har vissa f\u00f6rband legat alldeles f\u00f6r l\u00e4nge i aktiv front utan vila.<\/p>\n

Det kommer en tid n\u00e4r kriget \u00e4r slut d\u00e4r landet Ukraina m\u00e5ste f\u00e5 allt st\u00f6d under mycket l\u00e5ng tid f\u00f6r att ta sig tillbaka till ett normall\u00e4ge. Veteraner med sv\u00e5ra psykiska problem, alla kvinnor och barn som sk\u00e4ndats, alla med d\u00f6dsfall i familjen d\u00e4r ton\u00e5ringar f\u00e5tt sv\u00e5ra trauman och f\u00f6rlorade f\u00f6r\u00e4ldrar \u2013 ingen l\u00e4tt uppgift att bearbeta det och f\u00e5 dom till normalt fungerande medborgare som g\u00e5r till sina jobb.<\/p>\n

Ukraina kan antingen bli en motor i europa och ett land med framtidshopp eller europas farligaste maffia som tar \u00f6ver och det \u00e4r helt upp till hur EU agerar framledes.<\/p>\n

Hade jag varit ukrainare hade jag velat bli behandlad med st\u00f6rsta respekt och duschas i goda g\u00e4rningar annars hade jag tagit det sj\u00e4lv med den nya f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga jag tillskansat mig.<\/p>\n

Landet Ryssland kan vi nog gl\u00f6mma \u2013 jag ser dom som obotliga \u00e4ven om man hoppas att dom skall \u00f6ppna d\u00f6rren och v\u00e4lja r\u00e4tt v\u00e4g. <\/p>\n

V\u00e4ntans Tider.<\/p>\n

#bringonthepinhata<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:00<\/h3>\n

Jag tog mig i kragen och \u00f6ppnade en h\u00f6gst anonym twitter. Ville inte f\u00f6lja n\u00e5gonting s\u00e5 uppt\u00e4ckte att man kunde g\u00f6ra listor, vilket jag gjorde, men dom kommer aldrig upp i fl\u00f6det \u00e4nd\u00e5.
\nDet g\u00f6r d\u00e4remot precis allt som Elon Musk skriver trots att jag f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker f\u00e5 bort honom \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Hur du lyckas posta mest relevant information i ett helt \u00e5r utan twitterkonto \u00e4r ju snudd p\u00e5 ett st\u00f6rre mysterium \u00e4n big bang, j\u00e4drar vilket jobb \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:14<\/h3>\n

F\u00e5r inte UA till ett avg\u00f6rande med v\u00e5roffensiven \u00e4r det skarpt l\u00e4ge.<\/p>\n

Nu \u00e4r det min \u00f6vertygelse att dom kommer f\u00e5 till ett avg\u00f6rande och vi \u00e4r inte d\u00e4r \u00e4nnu \u2013 men det \u00e4r ett v\u00e4rsta scenario.<\/p>\n

Projicerar Ryssland n\u00e5gon endaste form av styrka, och frysta fronter eller eldupph\u00f6r \u00e4r konstigt nog det, d\u00e5 \u00e4r alla l\u00e4nder som st\u00e5r och h\u00e4nger p\u00e5 staketet i riskzonen att sl\u00e4nga sin vita handske framf\u00f6r v\u00e4st.<\/p>\n

Det kommer sluta med v\u00e4stlig brakvinst \u00e4nd\u00e5 men det kommer bli en o\u00e4ndligt st\u00f6rre konflikt som drar in s\u00e5 pass m\u00e5nga l\u00e4nder att historikerna kallar det f\u00f6r tredje v\u00e4rldskriget.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:36<\/h3>\n

Tydligare \u00e4n s\u00e5 blir det v\u00e4l inte egentligen vilken typ av fred UA kan t\u00e4nka sig?<\/p>\n

Intressant vinkel Erik14, det betyder ju att offensiven \u00e4r slut innan dom anl\u00e4nder till slagf\u00e4ltet eller hur?
\nhttps:\/\/www.voanews.com\/a\/us-seeks-to-stem-discord-with-allies-over-ukraine-document-leaks-\/7060210.html<\/a><\/p>\n

Verkar som dom levereras i Maj och sen en 10-veckors kurs p\u00e5 det och sen 2-3 veckor tills dom \u00e4r p\u00e5 f\u00f6rband kanske?
\nDom kan allts\u00e5 vara p\u00e5 f\u00f6rband under m\u00e5naden Augusti och d\u00e5 \u00e4r denna offensiv slut?
\nhttps:\/\/www.voanews.com\/a\/us-seeks-to-stem-discord-with-allies-over-ukraine-document-leaks-\/7060210.html<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:36<\/h4>\n

Tv\u00e5 g\u00e5nger VOA news f\u00f6r artikeln var s\u00e5 bra \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:07<\/h2>\n

Diskussion soldater emellan, monster \ud83e\udd2c<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1651861580110352384?s=46&t=fSe4vxvi5XUXDaWfIktoLg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

08:50<\/h2>\n

Darth Putin har svaret om krim-explosionen<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/darthputinkgb\/status\/1652192794742587392?s=46&t=TKdwEgtl56eXZV-hkLYoNw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

17:33<\/h2>\n

M\u00f6rdarsniglarna hotat med att retirera fr\u00e5n Bakhmut \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1652327901583360001?s=46&t=nagicaOajk3hbJFrFXmOLQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:52 Bakhmut \u00e4r en f\u00f6rdr\u00f6jningsstrid och den g\u00e5r m\u00f6jligen mot sitt slut \u2013 allt \u00e4r i sin ordning. 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