{"id":7821,"date":"2023-05-03T08:29:03","date_gmt":"2023-05-03T06:29:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-05-03\/"},"modified":"2023-05-03T08:29:03","modified_gmt":"2023-05-03T06:29:03","slug":"2023-05-03","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-05-03\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-05-03"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:45 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Har kuskat runt p\u00e5 en liten b\u00e5t med A\/C som tur \u00e4r i v\u00e4rldens b\u00e4sta Afrika denna vecka f\u00f6r en bathymetric survey, d\u00e4rav lite oregelbundet postande eftersom t\u00e4ckningen kommer och g\u00e5r lite beroende p\u00e5 var man \u00e4r i de hajrika vattnen.<\/p>\n

Mitt starkaste sk\u00e4l till att jag tror att Ukrainas offensiv \u00e4r i \u00f6kande\/ n\u00e4ra f\u00f6rest\u00e5ende \u00e4r att s\u00e5 fort v\u00e4garna b\u00f6rjar b\u00e4ra och temperaturen blir b\u00e4ttre fungerar ryssarnas f\u00f6rs\u00f6rjningskedjor igen och soldaterna \u00e4r v\u00e4l som sm\u00e5 gr\u00e5a \u00f6dlor som v\u00e4rmer upp sig i solljuset ungef\u00e4r.<\/p>\n

Nu har RU precis kommit ur sin egen offensiv och k\u00f6rt slut p\u00e5 allt men ger man dom s\u00e4g 2-3 m\u00e5nader till kan \u00e4ven dom lyckas arbeta sig till ett f\u00f6rsvar v\u00e4rt namnet.<\/p>\n

Det finns alla sk\u00e4l att klippa till i l\u00e5gpunkten och d\u00e4r \u00e4r vi v\u00e4l nu. Det \u00e4r den andra l\u00e5gpunkten sedan September 2022 och den missade UA f\u00f6r att v\u00e4st segade med leveranserna.<\/p>\n

Med lite tur har v\u00e4st den h\u00e4r g\u00e5ngen n\u00e5t till kort att spela samtidigt som offensiven drar ig\u00e5ng f\u00f6r att amplifiera budskapet. Det \u00e4r lite f\u00f6r spekulativt s\u00e5 g\u00e5r inte in p\u00e5 n\u00e5got men allt som g\u00f6r ont f\u00f6r Ryssland \u00e4r bra just nu och d\u00e4r ing\u00e5r diplomati, handel, politik och allt det andra mjuka.<\/p>\n

Att Kina, Indien och Brazil nu tagit sin skyddande hand fr\u00e5n Ryssland i FN \u00e4r naturligtvis riktigt stort \u00e4ven om min kompis alltid f\u00e5r svidande kritik f\u00f6r sitt \u201dkastade under bussen\u201d.<\/p>\n

Putin var en relativt stor man som ans\u00e5g sig om inte leda BRIICS i alla fall vara en av de tongivande \u2013 han fick en zooml\u00e4nk fr\u00e5n Sydafrika till n\u00e4sta BRIICS m\u00f6te \ud83d\ude00 <\/p>\n

Hur kul tror ni han tycker det \u00e4r att vara den enda som \u00e4r med p\u00e5 zoom n\u00e4r dom andra har kul after-work i cape town?<\/p>\n

Xi har v\u00e4l honom p\u00e5 mobilen men r\u00e5kar l\u00e4gga den med kameran ned p\u00e5 bardisken och ingen h\u00f6r honom i musik och sorl s\u00e5 efter en kvart st\u00e4nger han ned och g\u00e5r med h\u00e4ngande huvud tillbaka till sovrummet med en sked kaviar i munnen.<\/p>\n

Det signalerar ocks\u00e5 att \u201dden andra sidan\u201d b\u00f6rjar bli nerv\u00f6sa, Sydafrika viker sig, Kina r\u00f6star r\u00f6tt, Brasilien och Indien v\u00e4ljer mellanv\u00e4gen. Putin \u00e4r mycket ensam nu och v\u00e4sts tysta diplomati har helt klart fungerat.<\/p>\n

Ryssland har alltid sett sig som en stormakt, nu \u00e4r dom paria och allt \u00e4r p\u00e5 grund av ett illa genomf\u00f6rt krig.
\nEn geopolitisk atombomb.<\/p>\n

De med makt gick fr\u00e5n paradv\u00e5ning i Londongrad och att flytta hundratals miljoner genom banksystemet i v\u00e4st till beslagtagna tillg\u00e5ngar och m\u00f6jligen visum till Kina om frun vill shoppa. Det m\u00e5ste vara d\u00f6dstyst och mycket bl\u00e4ngande under luggen vid middagsborden- nu hos den ryska eliten. <\/p>\n

Det finns en sak som skulle g\u00f6ra att Ryssland \u00f6verlevde det h\u00e4r \u2013 dom lyckas frysa fronterna p\u00e5 eget bev\u00e5g och sen jobbar dom som illrar f\u00f6r att rusta upp gammal materiel och tr\u00e4na nyinryckta tills dom har ett f\u00f6rsvar som \u00e4r en f\u00f6r h\u00f6g tr\u00f6skel f\u00f6r Ukraina. F\u00f6r detta beh\u00f6ver dom tid och det \u00e4r osannolikt att Ukraina skulle ge dom den tiden nu n\u00e4r vi \u00e4r mitt inne i rysk (sj\u00e4lvf\u00f6rv\u00e5llad) l\u00e5gpunkt.<\/p>\n

Vad vi kan konstatera \u00e4r f\u00f6ljande \u2013
\n-f\u00f6rband har f\u00e5tt marschorder.
\n-bek\u00e4mpning av bakre \u00e4r p\u00e5g\u00e5ende.
\n-spektakul\u00e4ra angrepp p\u00e5 stora avst\u00e5nd \u00e4r p\u00e5 \u00f6kande.
\n-frontn\u00e4ra f\u00f6rbek\u00e4mpning vid Dnepr, s\u00f6dra fronten, Avdiivka, Bakhmut och Kreminna.
\n-motanfall vid s\u00f6dra fronten, n\u00e5n typ av korsning vid Dnepr, motanfall vid Bakhmut, Avdiivka och n\u00e5t till.
\n-ett ih\u00e4rdigt rykte att UA br\u00f6t igenom f\u00f6rsvar och gick 1.5km p\u00e5 djupet (vad \u00e4r definitionen av ett genombrott?)<\/p>\n

Allt det h\u00e4r kostar liv och ammunition och hade inte gjorts om inte offensiv var n\u00e4ra f\u00f6rest\u00e5ende.<\/p>\n

Offensiven har v\u00e4l egentligen b\u00f6rjat, sedan 10 April har vi sett \u00f6kad intensitet med peakar 19-20 April och nu i m\u00e5nadsskiftet. <\/p>\n

Brigaderna konsoliderar, utf\u00f6r stridsspaning, \u00f6kar intensiteten och p\u00e5 sina h\u00e5ll har dom helt brutit igenom f\u00f6rsvaret.<\/p>\n

\u00d6verraskningarna har vi inte sett \u00e4nnu, eller n\u00e5gra har vi sett \u2013 oljeterminalen p\u00e5 Krim och \u00f6ver Kertjsundet. Finns naturligtvis en hel lista med kul uppt\u00e5g som Budanov sitter och fingrar p\u00e5 vilka han skall v\u00e4lja.
\n-Sl\u00e4cka Ryssland?
\n-Sabba 9 Maj?
\n-S\u00e4nka med av flottans flytetyg?
\n-L\u00e5ta frivilliga ryska brigaden k\u00f6ra n\u00e5gra mil in i Ryssland?
\n-S\u00e4tt en Grom i Kreml?
\n-S\u00e4tt en Grom i putins palats-datja?<\/p>\n

Det gick rykten om att Budanov fick backa fr\u00e5n ny\u00e5rskarameller p\u00e5 \u00e5rsdagen men varf\u00f6r skulle man avh\u00e5lla sig fr\u00e5n allt kul ni n\u00e4r man f\u00e5tt materielen och offensiven \u00e4r i uppstartande?<\/p>\n

Personligen tycker jag v\u00e4st fortfarande agerar lite bromskloss \u00e4ven om mycket nu \u00e4r gjort. F\u00f6rst\u00e5elsen f\u00f6r vad som var p\u00e5 v\u00e4g att h\u00e4nda innan Ukraina kraschade partyt \u00e4r f\u00f6r d\u00e5lig eller s\u00e5 klarar man inte att se att man tillh\u00f6r samma sida.<\/p>\n

L\u00e5t Ukraina vinna det h\u00e4r kriget genom att g\u00f6ra det dom beh\u00f6ver g\u00f6ra f\u00f6r att vinna, att spetslfyg och l\u00e5ngdistansvapen inte redan levererats \u00e4r lika tr\u00e5kigt som n\u00e4r vi f\u00f6rstod i h\u00f6stas att UA inte f\u00e5tt n\u00e5gonting s\u00e5 h\u00f6stoffensiven blev vad dom klarade av med det dom hade.<\/p>\n

GLDSB bekr\u00e4ftades f\u00f6r leverans f\u00f6r m\u00e5nader sedan och det var ocks\u00e5 bekr\u00e4ftat att det fanns i lager.<\/p>\n

Tusentals offensiva dr\u00f6nare har levererats och UA har f\u00e5tt komponenter tilll 100 000st till \u2013 har vi sett det molnet \u00e4nnu?<\/p>\n

Vill ocks\u00e5 f\u00f6rtydliga att min kommentar till n\u00e5n film p\u00e5 d\u00f6d ryss ig\u00e5r d\u00e4r jag skrev \u201dvacker film\u201d eller liknande s\u00e5 hade jag inte sett filmen. Str\u00f6sslade med ett par positiva kommentarer och uppenbarligen blev den d\u00e4r inte s\u00e5 snygg. Ger mig sj\u00e4lv en negativ ned\u00e5t-tumme s\u00e5 slipper ni g\u00f6ra det \ud83d\udc4e<\/p>\n

S\u00e5 pass d\u00e5ligt som man sj\u00e4lv m\u00e5r av att det h\u00e4r kriget kommer g\u00e5 in i en aktiv fas igen s\u00e5 finns det ju hundratusental ukrainare nu som s\u00e4ger hejd\u00e5 till sin familj och inte vet om dom kommer tillbaka. Blir det inte ett snabbt slut kommer tiotusentals till att d\u00f6. F\u00f6r familjen hemma kommer det h\u00e4r vara otroligt p\u00e5frestande m\u00e5nader d\u00e4r man oroar ihj\u00e4l sig samtidigt som man skall f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka fungera.<\/p>\n

Varje dag vill man att det h\u00e4r sk1tkriget skall ta slut \ud83e\udd2c<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:03 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+100<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:40 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

+100 tillbaka \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:43 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Den h\u00e4r officeren har samma tankar som oss.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.expressen.se\/nyheter\/ukrainas-varoffensiv-narmar-sig-en-chans\/<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:01 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:28 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Tack f\u00f6r ett informativt nattpass Eril14, du f\u00e5ngar som vanligt upp helheten \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

Verkar kunna bli en intressant dag men f\u00f6rst m\u00e5ste jag tydligen reda ut ett rullatorburet myteri p\u00e5 b\u00e5ten som kom mycket \u00f6verraskande \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

07:34 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

DENGAMLE har verkligen varit p\u00e5 hugget sen han kom tillbaka, f\u00e5r en att undra om han kraftigt \u00f6kat konsumtionen av morgonsupar! \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:45 \u2013 Johan No.1 Har kuskat runt p\u00e5 en liten b\u00e5t med A\/C som tur \u00e4r i v\u00e4rldens b\u00e4sta Afrika 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