{"id":7822,"date":"2023-05-04T09:57:32","date_gmt":"2023-05-04T07:57:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-05-04\/"},"modified":"2023-05-04T09:57:32","modified_gmt":"2023-05-04T07:57:32","slug":"2023-05-04","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-05-04\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-05-04"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:18 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

N\u00e5gon g\u00e5ng m\u00e5ste jag f\u00e5 skriva detta s\u00e5 jag skriver det idag \u2013 \u201dand so it has begun\u201d.
\n(famous last words).<\/p>\n

Jag hade skrivit n\u00e5got mycket dramatiskt h\u00e4r men det l\u00e4ste aldrig r\u00e4tt s\u00e5 det r\u00f6k.<\/p>\n

Lite mindre dramatiskt \u00e4n meningen ovan \u2013 hundratusentals i brigader vars uppmarsch till grupperingsomr\u00e5dena\/utg\u00e5ngsgruppering nu \u00e4r f\u00e4rdiga och f\u00f6nstret f\u00f6r att p\u00e5b\u00f6rja offensiv \u00e4r sannolikt inlett.<\/p>\n

Defmon hade en fantastisk post d\u00e4r han chefs-alvern genomborrade orcher med alvpilar \u2013 vilken effekt, helt otroligt jag bara r\u00f6s.<\/p>\n

Ryktena g\u00e5r om st\u00f6rre r\u00f6relser och dom har varit r\u00e4tt ih\u00e4rdiga. Bet\u00e4nk att det \u00e4r locket p\u00e5 och 3dgr f\u00f6rdr\u00f6jning p\u00e5 allt men som sagt twitterrykten.<\/p>\n

Frontn\u00e4ra f\u00f6rbek\u00e4mpning har g\u00e5tt upp som ett spjut, nu ocks\u00e5 vid Vuhledar, och ut\u00f6ver tidigare motanfall \u00e4r det nu ytterligare UA offensiva operationer (storlek ok\u00e4nd) vid Bakhmut och s\u00f6dra fronten \u2013 allt \u00e4r s\u00e5klart twitterrykten men en dag som denna hugger jag p\u00e5 allt. <\/p>\n

Jag tror upp-ticket i h\u00e5rda fordon \u00e4r f\u00f6r att dom sl\u00e5r ut h\u00e5rda fordon i f\u00f6rsvar nu men det \u00e4r en gissning.<\/p>\n

Var ocks\u00e5 videos p\u00e5 rader med skytte som stod vid dnepr igen men den kan ju vara samma vi s\u00e5g tidigare bara fr\u00e5n annan vinkel.<\/p>\n

\u00c4r detta en nothing burgher l\u00e5tsas jag som ingenting i vanlig ordning och utropar offensiv senare n\u00e4r \u00e4ven ISW g\u00e5tt ut med det. <\/p>\n

Den dramatiska h\u00e4ndelsen h\u00e4romveckan n\u00e4r Dengamle skulle komma f\u00f6rst i tr\u00e5den men f\u00f6rsov sig efter morgonrundan runt vardagsrummet har legat och skavt lite s\u00e5 nu k\u00f6r jag mitt vad \u2013 \u00e5terg\u00e5r allt till lugn n\u00e4rmaste dagarna och n\u00e4sta vecka \u00e4r samma intensitet som f\u00f6rra veckan d\u00e5 \u00e4r det jakttillst\u00e5nd p\u00e5 mig igen f\u00f6r Dengamle \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

Middag med kollegorna ig\u00e5r och det vanliga narrativet att Ryssland kanske inte vinner men kan om\u00f6jligt sl\u00e5s. Efter en heldag som grillad hummer p\u00e5 b\u00e5ten tog jag en f\u00f6rv\u00e5nansv\u00e4rt h\u00e5rd position f\u00f6r att vara mig p\u00e5 jobb och resonerade lite kring UA offensiv. Samtalet gick snabbt in p\u00e5 skogsbr\u00e4nder under somrarna efter blickar av best\u00f6rtning hur jag kunde f\u00f6rst\u00e5 s\u00e5 lite om vad som h\u00e4nder i v\u00e4rlden trots min \u00e5lder. <\/p>\n

Jag tror att RU indirekt eld mot Kherson \u00e4r f\u00f6r att st\u00f6ra offensiven, misst\u00e4nker att robotarna var det samma \u2013 RU g\u00f6r vad dom kan.<\/p>\n

Har ni listat ut varf\u00f6r Zelensky var i Finland \u00e4nnu?<\/p>\n

Att Island var d\u00e4r gav bort det \u2013 JED har m\u00f6tts och om man f\u00e5r gissa kommer UA g\u00e5 med i JEF fram\u00f6ver eftersom turkiet och ungern aldrig kommer sl\u00e4ppa in dom i NATO.<\/p>\n

Har tidigare resonerat att JEF kommer vara en akt\u00f6r fram\u00f6ver och st\u00e5r fast vid det. R\u00e4tt l\u00e4nder som \u00e4r med och huvudsyftet blir v\u00e4l f\u00f6rsvaret av v\u00e5r \u00f6stra gr\u00e4ns kan jag t\u00e4nka.<\/p>\n

Ett bra komplement till NATO fast utan alla bromsklossar.<\/p>\n

Det kan nog ocks\u00e5 komma gemensamma vapenprojekt, gemensamma \u00f6vningar och mycket samarbeten fr\u00e5n detta.<\/p>\n

Dom har tydligen himarsat Alchevsk vilket v\u00e4l \u00e4r m\u00e5let f\u00f6r den st\u00f6rre Bakhmut-Siversk offensiven.<\/p>\n

Sen n\u00e5t twitterrykte om att dom f\u00f6rbereder cirkelf\u00f6rsvar i Mariupol vilket \u00e4r helt lysande f\u00f6r d\u00e5 kan meken bara runda staden och skyttebrigaderna f\u00e5r s\u00e4tta upp en medeltida bel\u00e4gring och sv\u00e4lta ut ryss i bebyggelse.<\/p>\n

Fr\u00e5gar ni mig tror jag det blir som vid Izyum n\u00e4r gardes-arm\u00e9n skulle sl\u00e5 tillbaka framst\u00f6ten, vi s\u00e5g f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkningar helikopterlands\u00e4ttas och sen fick vi filmer p\u00e5 n\u00e4r gardesarm\u00e9n flydde till fots \u00f6ver den sista bron \u00f6ver Oskil.<\/p>\n

Det kommer bli detta krigs v\u00e4rsta trafikstockning ned mot Krim och det har alla m\u00f6jligheter att bli Kuwait Highway 2.0.<\/p>\n

N\u00e4r man scannar fl\u00f6det p\u00e5 f\u00f6rbek\u00e4mpning och var spaningsstriderna gjorts f\u00e5r man en distinkt k\u00e4nsla av att UA f\u00f6rbereder offensiv l\u00e4ngs alla tre anfallsvektorerna s\u00f6derut l\u00e4ngs s\u00f6dra fronten.<\/p>\n

Har ni sett denna?
\nMed risk f\u00f6r att den \u00e4r gammal eller fel land men ser ni uniformerna, vapnen och soldaterna s\u00e5 f\u00e5r jag intrycket av att UA har mobiliserat upp precis allt f\u00f6r denna offensiv. Motsvarigheten till hemv\u00e4rn i M59, mauser och snuskburk ungef\u00e4r.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1653727008461824003?s=46&t=Fw2TZzNM8olo6IEdFYBHzg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:30 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Hur \u00e4r det med risken f\u00f6r skogsbr\u00e4nder? Vi har inte haft n\u00e5gra st\u00f6rre problem \u00e4n men det kommer kanske l\u00e4ngre fram?
\nNu n\u00e4r det blivit rej\u00e4lt mycket torrare nere i Europa l\u00e4r vi v\u00e4l f\u00e5 se fler av dem d\u00e4r ocks\u00e5. Vad tror ni andra? <\/p>\n

\ud83d\ude09 <\/p>\n

+100 Bra skrivet och jag tror ocks\u00e5 att #SpringIsHere och att vi nu kommer att f\u00e5 se det accelerera!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:49 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Jag gick igenom g\u00e5rdagens tr\u00e5d just nu och diskussionen kring b\u00e5ten skenade iv\u00e4g lite.<\/p>\n

Sj\u00e4lvklart skall vi f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka m\u00f6ta f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningarna men om alla deltagare f\u00e5r en egen nyckel till spritkylen \u00e4r det tveksamt om jag klarar finansieringen.<\/p>\n

Nu b\u00f6rjar vi ocks\u00e5 positionera oss f\u00f6r de formella befattningarna och m\u00e5ste v\u00e4l bara st\u00e4mma av bara att vi inte lovat bort n\u00e5got tidigare nu n\u00e4r det blev viss rotation.<\/p>\n

Gammelsvenskby och Bakhmut skall det seglas till s\u00e5 det blir en j\u00e4ttekul resa.
\n(kan bli visst gn\u00e4ll n\u00e4r spritkylen \u00e4r t\u00f6md och alla st\u00e5r som egyptiska gal\u00e4rslavar och drar b\u00e5ten p\u00e5 rullande stockar till Bakhmut).<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:40 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

DENGAMLE h\u00f6ll h\u00e5rt i nyckeln..
\nJag f\u00e5r helt enkelt l\u00e4gga en st\u00f6rre best\u00e4llning p\u00e5 Obolon och jag ser \u00e4ven till att bunkra upp inf\u00f6r resan s\u00e5 det finns \u00e5t alla. \u00c5terkom med lista \u00f6ver alla bes\u00e4ttningsmedlemmar och deras f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntade dagliga behov av Obolon s\u00e5 fixar jag det!<\/p>\n

Har lite seglingserfarenhet s\u00e5 jag anm\u00e4ler mig som gast, har vi f\u00f6rresten segel eller det en motorkryssare?? \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n

Bakhmut kan bli lite tufft men det klarar vi!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:37 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Matsextrude, vilken position hade du, jag har tappat bort mitt organisationsdiagram jag gjorde med den senaste mjukvaran?<\/p>\n

Du har ju en plats sedan l\u00e4nge vill jag minnas \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
12:38 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h5>\n

Gast s\u00e5g jag nu, l\u00e5ter bra \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:45 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Jag hoppas jag skrev det r\u00e4tt \u2013 jo precis s\u00e5 min tanke, att f\u00f6nstret f\u00f6r offensiv nu \u00e4r inlett och det kommer accelerera.
\nDet \u00e4r en otrolig m\u00e4ngd f\u00f6rband som skall komma ig\u00e5ng och allt kan ju h\u00e4nda men man genomf\u00f6r inte frontn\u00e4ra f\u00f6rbek\u00e4mpning om man inte har f\u00f6r avsikt att g\u00e5 p\u00e5 offensiv i n\u00e4rtid f\u00f6r det drar p\u00e5 ammunitionen.<\/p>\n

Jag t\u00e4nkte att 10 April var tidigt och 19\/20 k\u00e4ndes inte heller r\u00e4tt men nu \u00e4r intensiteten s\u00e5 pass h\u00f6g f\u00f6r mig att det k\u00e4nns som offensivstart.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
13:26 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

Jag har t\u00e4nkt mig att det skulle hamna under de tv\u00e5 veckorna i mitten av maj, ungef\u00e4r fr\u00e5n nu till helgen och tv\u00e5 veckor fram\u00e5t. Lite tidigt redan nu men det k\u00e4nns som att det startat och vi kommer att f\u00e5 se en upptrappning innan det sm\u00e4ller till ordentligt.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
13:33 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

Hade inte blivit tilldelad n\u00e5gon befattning, tror det bara var en pall i ena h\u00f6rnet av styrhytten \ud83d\ude42<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:37 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Jag f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker f\u00f6rst\u00e5 ukrainas uttalande om allt som sm\u00e4ller i Ryssland som l\u00e4t som tv\u00e4rtomspr\u00e5ket men har en annan id\u00e9.<\/p>\n

Vi vet att det finns 5-6 befrielsefronter och hade jag varit UA hade jag haft t\u00e4ta kontakter med dom och f\u00f6rs\u00f6kt koordinera upptrappade befrielsed\u00e5d med v\u00e5roffensiven.<\/p>\n

Ukraina kanske inte ljuger eller k\u00f6r tv\u00e4rtomspr\u00e5ket och det \u00e4r kanske ryska \u201drebellgrupper\u201d som fr\u00e4ser p\u00e5?<\/p>\n

Landet Ryssland \u00e4r ju om\u00f6jligt att skydda och en aktiv befrielsefront skulle mycket fort tvinga Ryssland att v\u00e4nda sig in\u00e5t.<\/p>\n

Vem vet.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:56 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Intressant tanke. Om allt som sm\u00e4ller orsakats av interna grupperingar kan det bli r\u00e4tt intressant fram\u00f6ver.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:16 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Olika p\u00e5 olika platser rimligen?<\/p>\n

Beror ocks\u00e5 p\u00e5 m\u00e4ngden eldr\u00f6r.<\/p>\n

Jag har t\u00e4nkt att ett artbatteri av till exempel Archer kan k\u00f6ra slut p\u00e5 de viktiga m\u00e5len hos en f\u00f6rsvagad mekbataljon i f\u00f6rsvar p\u00e5 n\u00e5gra dagar.<\/p>\n

V\u00e4ntar man f\u00f6r l\u00e4nge ger man RU m\u00f6jlighet att f\u00f6rst\u00e4rka.<\/p>\n

Men om dom inte har n\u00e5gra f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkningar att skicka och man har ammunition kan man ju decimera dom n\u00e5got ohyggligt med m\u00e5lstyrd ammunition och tr\u00e4ff mitt i varje skott.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:21 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Dom har ju informationsinh\u00e4mtningen snudd p\u00e5 i realtid d\u00e4r dom koncentrerar.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:49 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Jag tycker det \u00e4r en genuint intressant diskussion.<\/p>\n

Ett exempel \u2013 jag har alltid min ytterd\u00f6rr vid\u00f6ppen p\u00e5 n\u00e4tterna och mina grannar \u00e4r k\u00e4nda f\u00f6r att m\u00f6rda, dom har sina knivar i garaget.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r en stor familj.<\/p>\n

En natt kommer tv\u00e5 av s\u00f6nerna in och \u00f6verfaller mig i s\u00e4ngen men jag lyckas lura dom att d\u00f6da varandra i m\u00f6rkret.<\/p>\n

B\u00f6r jag nu forts\u00e4tta ha min ytterd\u00f6rr vid\u00f6ppen och l\u00e5ta knivarna ligga d\u00e4r i deras garage vetandes att de tv\u00e5 andra s\u00f6nerna vill ha h\u00e4mnd.<\/p>\n

Eller b\u00f6r jag l\u00e5sa min ytterd\u00f6rr och sno alla knivarna s\u00e5 dom inte har n\u00e5got att d\u00f6da mig med?<\/p>\n

Jag tycker ju att l\u00e5sa ytterd\u00f6rren och sno knivarna ocks\u00e5 faller under rimligt agerande f\u00f6r att freda sig.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
16:44 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h6>\n

Ja, det blir perfekt! H\u00f6r Johan No.1 vr\u00e5la, \u201dAnf\u00e4kta och anamma! Gastj\u00e4vel, liket lever, skota hem!!\u201d<\/p>\n

Tror jag ska b\u00f6rja tr\u00e4na p\u00e5 n\u00e5gra av Kapten Haddocks b\u00e4ttre svordomar.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:18 \u2013 Johan No.1 N\u00e5gon g\u00e5ng m\u00e5ste jag f\u00e5 skriva detta s\u00e5 jag skriver det idag \u2013 \u201dand so it 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