{"id":7825,"date":"2023-05-07T11:54:35","date_gmt":"2023-05-07T09:54:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-05-07\/"},"modified":"2023-05-07T11:54:35","modified_gmt":"2023-05-07T09:54:35","slug":"2023-05-07","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-05-07\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-05-07"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

12:04 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Minns ni f\u00f6rra \u00e5ret n\u00e4r vi s\u00e5g paraden den 9 Maj och ins\u00e5g att ukrainakriget var en fluga p\u00e5 v\u00e4ggen som inte n\u00e5dde fram till Ryssland och att tr\u00f6gheten i Ryssland var enorm. Arm\u00e9n gick och dog i Ukraina men Putin stod och s\u00e5g l\u00e5ng ut p\u00e5 paraden med soldater och vagnar var mest v\u00e4lputsade p\u00e5 norra halvklotet.<\/p>\n

Vi diskuterade det mycket och jag tror vi kallade det f\u00f6r en kalibrering som levt med sedan dess.<\/p>\n

Nu i \u00e5r 2023 s\u00e5 har paraderna p\u00e5verkats, dom \u00e4r inst\u00e4llda p\u00e5 m\u00e5nga h\u00e5ll och Putin kommer inte medverka \u2013 det \u00e4r en j\u00e4ttesignal att landet Ryssland nu p\u00e5verkas negativt av ukrainakriget.<\/p>\n

Vi skulle leta efter sprickorna sa n\u00e5gon och Prigozins fanflykt och inst\u00e4llda parader \u00e4r mycket stora sprickor.<\/p>\n

Sen \u00e4r jag av \u00e5sikten att om-man-vill st\u00f6ra paraden \u00e4r det om\u00f6jligt att skydda sig, \u00f6ppna ett f\u00f6nster och sl\u00e4pp iv\u00e4g en f\u00f6rprogrammerad dr\u00f6nare som susar iv\u00e4g just under takh\u00f6jd ett par kvarter?
\nAntingen landar den, den har spr\u00e4ngmedel eller vecklar ut en UA flagga \u2013 allt skulle ge d\u00e5lig PR f\u00f6r ryssarna.<\/p>\n

Minns ni att n\u00e5gon skrev att ett par ryska baser t\u00f6mts nere p\u00e5 Krim?<\/p>\n

Jag tolkade det som att dom k\u00f6rts norrut f\u00f6r att f\u00f6rst\u00e4rka s\u00f6dra fronten men sen kom filmer p\u00e5 k\u00f6er ned till Krim fr\u00e5n s\u00f6dra fronten och avst\u00e4ngningen f\u00f6r civil trafik \u00f6ver Kertjbron och stopp i f\u00e4rjel\u00e4gren.<\/p>\n

Det skulle kunna vara s\u00e5 att RU redan b\u00f6rjat evakuera staber, bakre och materiel fr\u00e5n Krim \u00f6ver Kertj i f\u00f6rebyggande syfte och att man stoppat all civil trafik.
\nVem vet\u2026<\/p>\n

Ig\u00e5r verkar UA skickat fler dr\u00f6nare mot ryssarna \u00e4n vad ryssarna skickade mot UA \u2013 \u00e4r v\u00e4l f\u00f6rsta g\u00e5ngen?<\/p>\n

Frontn\u00e4ra f\u00f6rbek\u00e4mpning sl\u00e5r v\u00e4l ut h\u00e5rda fordon nu gissar jag och artilleri samt h\u00e5rda fordon har tagit helt galna f\u00f6rluster i veckor.<\/p>\n

Sen har UA \u00e5terigen (dagligen) genomf\u00f6rt anfall vid n\u00e5got eller n\u00e5gra frontavsnitt och f\u00e5tt till (ytterligare) ett genombrott. Avdiivka bla.<\/p>\n

Rapporteringen \u00e4r dels med tre dagars f\u00f6rsening nu och sen har UA bett om locket p\u00e5 (igen) s\u00e5 det h\u00e4nder sannolikt mer \u00e4n vad vi f\u00e5r reda p\u00e5 just nu.
\nEn sak som jag funderar p\u00e5 \u2013 \u00e4r allt Gregg skriver tre dagars f\u00f6rdr\u00f6jning, \u00e4r det s\u00e5 man skall l\u00e4sa hans poster just nu?<\/p>\n

Lunation postade en liten rebus h\u00e4romnatten som v\u00e4l var GLDSB bomberna, \u201ddubbel kassett\u201d\u00b4.
\nJag hade vissa problem med att kommunicera s\u00e5 sent p\u00e5 natten efter en st\u00e4dad after work men kan meddela att jag hoppade h\u00f6gt i rummet i ett akut utfall av positivitet. Det var dock en m\u00e4rklig k\u00e4nsla som salt och surt samtidigt f\u00f6r det k\u00e4ndes som jag slog huvudet i en s\u00e4ngbotten n\u00e4r jag slog mina frivolter. Hursomhelst \u2013 vilket scoop Lunation.<\/p>\n

Med tanke p\u00e5 hur dom redan b\u00f6rjar spontan-evakuera bakom s\u00f6dra fronten g\u00e5r man ju och hoppas att det blir fullt genombrott och flyende ryss med tv\u00e4ttmaskin p\u00e5 pirra ned till Krim.
\nVid Kherson h\u00f6ll dom p\u00e5 i m\u00e5nader men man f\u00e5r den distinkta k\u00e4nslan av att det kommer g\u00e5 snabbare h\u00e4r f\u00f6r att f\u00f6rsvaret \u00e4r svagare och anfallande part starkare och b\u00e4ttre f\u00f6rberedda.<\/p>\n

Hoppet om ett kort krig lever mycket starkt av den enkla anledningen att man vill ha ett slut p\u00e5 den h\u00e4r mardr\u00f6mmen varje dag men det \u00e4r inte rent dagdr\u00f6mmeri \u2013 finns mycket h\u00e5rda data som backar upp det antagandet.<\/p>\n

Herrej\u00f6sses vad Nestor s\u00e5gade whisky i den stora whiskytr\u00e5den, jag skrattade s\u00e5 jag tj\u00f6t \u2013 nestor borde bli GD f\u00f6r systembolaget.<\/p>\n

Jobbar med ett par nederl\u00e4ndare, eller holl\u00e4ndare, eller hur dom nu identifierar sig eftersom f\u00f6retaget \u00e4r holl\u00e4ndskt (s\u00e5 identifierar jag dom). F\u00f6rsta observation var att dom verkar bara komma i blont och den andra \u00e4r att dom verkligen \u00e4r sk1tt\u00f6tta p\u00e5 \u2013 \u201dgud vad kul, jag strosade genom redlight och r\u00f6kte en feting p\u00e5 marijuanabaren\u201d \u2013 dom avskyr verkligen det.<\/p>\n

Men dom har ocks\u00e5 st\u00f6ttat Ukraina n\u00e5got otroligt och \u00e4r med i JEF, Nederl\u00e4nderna skall man h\u00e5lla \u00f6gonen p\u00e5 fram\u00f6ver f\u00f6r dom \u00e4r p\u00e5 r\u00e4tt sida historien.<\/p>\n

Dom \u00e4r usla p\u00e5 marinprojekt men i v\u00e5gsk\u00e5len till deras f\u00f6rdel v\u00e4ger det mastodont-tungt att dom har en fullt utrustad minibar plus en \u00f6lkyl i vardagsrummet \u2013 kan tysta den st\u00f6rsta av kritiker d\u00e5 dom \u00e4r ostadiga p\u00e5 benen morgon, middag, kv\u00e4ll.<\/p>\n

R\u00e4tt besviken p\u00e5 att tr\u00e5den kunde lista ut att mitt namn var taget fr\u00e5n en bisamr\u00e5tta i ett akvarium p\u00e5 berlins zoo, helt klart har jag underskattat tr\u00e5dens analysf\u00f6rm\u00e5ga eller s\u00e5 har alla varit i akvariumet p\u00e5 berlins zoo vilket inte var en f\u00f6rstagissning direkt.<\/p>\n

En intressant detalj kring Pentagon-l\u00e4ckan som man kan v\u00e4lja att tro p\u00e5 eller inte var i dom stod det att offensiven skulle starta 30 April.<\/p>\n

Denna var uppe tror jag, l\u00e5nga k\u00f6er ned till Krim.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/StateOfUkraine\/status\/1654908095141666818?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

Enligt den h\u00e4r twittraren skall vi h\u00e5lla \u00f6gonen p\u00e5 n\u00e4r svartahavsflottan slinker iv\u00e4g fr\u00e5n Krim.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1655063500635471875?s=46&t=C5eRIViO8lLQfglMCcg4LA<\/a><\/p>\n

Vercingetorix postade dagens Accentmannen vilken jag tycker var mycket sp\u00e4nnande f\u00f6r det r\u00f6r p\u00e5 sig rej\u00e4lt i Vuhledar och d\u00e5 f\u00e5r Erik14 beh\u00e5lla sin femhundring.
\nOerh\u00f6rt tr\u00e5kigt att ryska artilleriet har ammunition och att flyget \u00e4r aktivt. Intressant att Wagner inte f\u00e5r det underst\u00f6d dom vill ha\u2026
\nhttps:\/\/youtu.be\/SNJ1LajA6Go<\/a><\/p>\n

Accentmannen i sitt esse med pilar och kartor beskriver han T-korset och Cyclops. Ukraina stred r\u00e4tt liknande det vi har t\u00e4nkt att dom skall g\u00f6ra och resonerat mycket kring \u2013 \u00f6gon mot marken fr\u00e5n dr\u00f6nare, dr\u00f6nardroppad granat, 155mm i f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkta v\u00e4rnet och sen rensa upp.
\nEn j\u00e4tteomfattning minst sagt om det \u00e4r t\u00e4nkt att den skall starta d\u00e4ruppe.
\nhttps:\/\/youtu.be\/rjxLMrPu1bs<\/a><\/p>\n

G\u00e5r tydligen mycket gods till RU genom Kazakhstan. F\u00f6r mig \u00e4r det glasklart att om RU f\u00e5r tid p\u00e5 sig kan dom f\u00e5 ordning p\u00e5 sitt f\u00f6rsvar med Kinas och smugglarnas hj\u00e4lp. Det \u00e4r verkligen nu det g\u00e4ller och vi f\u00e5r hoppas att v\u00e4sts vapen r\u00e4cker till.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/euromaidanpr\/status\/1654916798095949825?s=46&t=C5eRIViO8lLQfglMCcg4LA<\/a>
\nSen kan man v\u00e4l v\u00e4nda p\u00e5 den ocks\u00e5 och s\u00e4ga lite f\u00f6renklat att v\u00e4st slog Ryssland med en mycket liten del av sina vapen och Ukraina men det \u00e4r inte r\u00e4ttvisande alls men bara f\u00f6r att s\u00e4tta det i perspektiv vilken kapacitet som finns.<\/p>\n

Rybar och Girkin h\u00e5ller sig helt tysta vilket \u00e4r lite trist men det signalerar v\u00e4l att det inte finns n\u00e5gra fler vinklar att spinna p\u00e5 h\u00e4r, Rybar har h\u00e5llit tyst sedan 20 April.<\/p>\n

L\u00e4ste i annat forum om Wagner och att dom f\u00e5r betalt l\u00f6pande f\u00f6r offensiver men att det \u00e4r geografiskt. Tydligen har dom inte f\u00e5tt fler kontrakt nu och det \u00e4r v\u00e4l d\u00e4rf\u00f6r Prigozin syns p\u00e5 telegram. Dom avancerar bak\u00e5t i Bakhmut vilket inte betalar bra och dom har ingen annanstans att byta till.<\/p>\n

Lite f\u00f6renklat tj\u00e4nar han pengar l\u00f6pande genom att skicka fram neddrogade f\u00e4ngelsekunder som d\u00f6r \u2013 ju mer jag l\u00e4r mig om honom desto ondare verkar han vara.<\/p>\n

Arm\u00e9n \u00e4r ju d\u00e4r f\u00f6r att vinna ett krig men Prigozin \u00e4r d\u00e4r f\u00f6r att f\u00e5 betalt.<\/p>\n

Det skulle ocks\u00e5 f\u00f6rklara deras helt meningsl\u00f6sa stormande \u00f6ver f\u00e4lten f\u00f6r det har genererat int\u00e4kter till Wagner PMC l\u00f6pande.<\/p>\n

Avdelningen obekr\u00e4ftade twitterrykten \u2013 RU plan \u00e4r en taktisk retr\u00e4tt ned till Krim n\u00e4r trycket fr\u00e5n UA offensiv blir f\u00f6r h\u00e5rt. Vi vet redan att man dragit ut bakre, civila och administrationen fr\u00e5n s\u00f6dra fronten s\u00e5 inte helt orimligt.<\/p>\n

Dom har i vart fall inte f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkt upp s\u00f6dra fronten med alla reserver dom har vilket dom borde om dom t\u00e4nkt h\u00e5lla den.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/BrennpunktUA\/status\/1654937016130236421?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

Jag f\u00f6rst\u00e5r att det vart r\u00e4tt lite om UA krigande idag men jag har kastat hatten i ringen och v\u00e4ntar bara p\u00e5 att v\u00e5roffensiven skall bekr\u00e4ftas formellt. Dom h\u00e4r perioderna \u00e4r alltid de tr\u00e5kigaste jag tycker det \u00e4r full f\u00f6rbek\u00e4mpning och offensiva operationer lite \u00f6verallt och att f\u00f6nstret f\u00f6r \u00f6kande offensiv absolut \u00e4r inlett men vi m\u00e5ste v\u00e4l ha n\u00e5t officiellt som bekr\u00e4ftar det.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:05 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Jag trodde man kunde f\u00e5 dubbla avst\u00e5nd om man tog 4st blanksteg men det gick tydligen inte.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:14 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Sp\u00e4nnande att krigsindustrin \u00e4r m\u00e5lrekad.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1655149016324141057?s=46&t=C5eRIViO8lLQfglMCcg4LA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:36 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

F\u00f6rst\u00e4rkning av s\u00f6dra fronten?<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1655154113443708928?s=46&t=C5eRIViO8lLQfglMCcg4LA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:59 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

H\u00e4rligt med b\u00e5tutflykt \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1655178385121837056?s=46&t=C5eRIViO8lLQfglMCcg4LA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:01 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Vad \u00e4r definitionen av en sv\u00e4rm?
\n22st l\u00e5ter lite?<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1655176416969859072?s=46&t=C5eRIViO8lLQfglMCcg4LA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:18 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:28 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Lite s\u00f6ndagstr\u00f6tt tr\u00e5d och urs\u00e4kta OT men \u00e4r den h\u00e4r var r\u00e4tt kul och det \u00e4r iallafall vapen med.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/thefigen_\/status\/1655161462128607234?s=46&t=C5eRIViO8lLQfglMCcg4LA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:33 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:33 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Alla \u00e4r r\u00e4dda hela tiden, de som kommer nu kanske inte har tidigare erfarenhet och kortare tr\u00e4ning och shockas mer av alla intryck?<\/p>\n

Det r\u00e4cker ju med att se ansiktena p\u00e5 f\u00f6rsvaret i Bakhmut f\u00f6r att f\u00f6rst\u00e5 vilken stressniv\u00e5 dom ligger p\u00e5, ingen psykolog men det \u00e4r nog permanenta skador, fruktansv\u00e4rt att se.<\/p>\n

Det Gregg pratar om \u00e4r ju territorial, dom d\u00e4r 14st nyuppsatta brigaderna accepterade bara ans\u00f6kningar med strid p\u00e5 CV.<\/p>\n

Dom tog v\u00e4l mycket fr\u00e5n territorial och sen har territorial fyllt p\u00e5 med helt oerfarna?<\/p>\n

Men nu skall ju inte territorial g\u00e5 f\u00f6rst och de med helt nya rekryter f\u00e5r v\u00e4l enklare bevakningsuppgifter?<\/p>\n

Mina tv\u00e5 cents.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:38 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Sen till Snorlars som ville att man skull g\u00e5 och l\u00e4gga sig klockan 9.
\n\u00c4r i annan tidszon s\u00e5 jag har lite utrymme kvar \u00e4n s\u00e5 l\u00e4nge.
\nErik14 har v\u00e4l tillst\u00e5nd till fullt nattpass om jag f\u00f6rst\u00e5tt g\u00e4llande reglemente och stadgar?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

22:46 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Hoppas jag hann f\u00f6rst.<\/p>\n

It is daaaady (eller hur man nu s\u00e4ger om himars\u2026)
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1655305737910865924?s=46&t=7GX8xuHLPyPreq39PwbZPg<\/a><\/p>\n

(Ja den d\u00e4r baren i vardagsrummet \u00e4r livsfarlig)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

23:04 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Ny RU numer\u00e4r \ud83d\udc47<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/friaukraina\/status\/1655292968046063623?s=46&t=7GX8xuHLPyPreq39PwbZPg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

12:04 \u2013 Johan No.1 Minns ni f\u00f6rra \u00e5ret n\u00e4r vi s\u00e5g paraden den 9 Maj och ins\u00e5g att ukrainakriget var 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