{"id":7826,"date":"2023-05-08T10:51:01","date_gmt":"2023-05-08T08:51:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-05-08\/"},"modified":"2023-05-08T10:51:01","modified_gmt":"2023-05-08T08:51:01","slug":"2023-05-08","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-05-08\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-05-08"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:35 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Japp, f\u00f6re detta sovjetstaterna har r\u00e4tt liberal inst\u00e4llning till sanktionerna.
\nKina levererar nog en hel del.
\nIran levererar allt dom orkar.
\nSmugglingsrutterna \u00e4r ju vid\u00f6ppna.<\/p>\n

F\u00e5r Ryssland tid kan dom \u00e5teruppta f\u00f6rlorad f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga trots sanktionerna. Iran har ju lyckats bygga robotar och dr\u00f6nare trots fulla sanktioner. Till och med israeliska komponenter fanns ju i deras dr\u00f6nare vilket \u00e4r r\u00e4tt m\u00e4rkligt.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:00 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Opsec t\u00e4cket ligger v\u00e4l t\u00e4tt, jag b\u00f6rjar tr\u00f6ttna p\u00e5 \u00f6lsorter och allt det d\u00e4r men chimpansen som fick tag p\u00e5 en AK74 var kul (om det inte \u00e4r djurpl\u00e5geri att tycka det f\u00f6r d\u00e5 tycker jag inte det var kul alls och blir bara uppr\u00f6rd \ud83e\udd2c).<\/p>\n

Vi ser m\u00e5nga filmer p\u00e5 rensning av skyttegrav just nu tycker jag som verkar ligga r\u00e4tt i \u00e5rstid.
\nOcks\u00e5 r\u00e4tt s\u00e4ker p\u00e5 att de h\u00f6ga f\u00f6rlusterna inte bara \u00e4r fr\u00e5n RU anfall utan ocks\u00e5 fr\u00e5n UA anfall. <\/p>\n

Skall vi g\u00e5 efter Kherson s\u00e5 h\u00e5ller det p\u00e5 s\u00e5 h\u00e4r ett tag innan en front kollapsar. UA kan ju inte satsa allt p\u00e5 ett kort s\u00e5 dom trycker v\u00e4l p\u00e5 \u00f6verallt med \u00f6kande intensitet och d\u00e4r det ser ut som tegelstenarna sitter l\u00f6st k\u00f6r dom v\u00e4l in murbr\u00e4ckan.<\/p>\n

Dom har kapacitet till m\u00e5nga murbr\u00e4ckor men det skulle nog bli en morals\u00e4nkare om man k\u00f6rde fast flera brigader direkt som slogs ut t\u00e4nker jag?<\/p>\n

F\u00f6rbanden har varit mobiliserade l\u00e4nge, vid Bakhmut har spetsen varit utg\u00e5ngsgrupperad s\u00e4kert \u00f6ver en m\u00e5nad.
\nBr\u00e4nsle och ammunition \u00e4r p\u00e5 plats.
\nDet p\u00e5g\u00e5r (spanings) strider vid i stort sett alla fronter och UA har n\u00e5tt framg\u00e5ng n\u00e4stan \u00f6verallt utom uppe i norra Luhansk s\u00e5 kanske lite mindre intensitet d\u00e4r?<\/p>\n

Enligt de l\u00e4ckta dokumenten skulle offensiven startat 30 April.
\nVerkar rimligt att f\u00f6nstret f\u00f6r offensiv \u00e4r inlett.<\/p>\n

Ett special\u00e5r med v\u00e4dret men enligt tr\u00e5dens chefsingenj\u00f6r p\u00e5 gyttja och v\u00e5rgr\u00e4s b\u00e4r marken sen n\u00e5n vecka tillbaka (var det v\u00e4l?).
\nN\u00e5gon har r\u00e4knat p\u00e5 att La Nina f\u00f6rsenat markens b\u00e4righet med n\u00e5n m\u00e5nad.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/davidhelms570\/status\/1654516669383933956?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

Skulle det bli ett j\u00e4ttegenombrott direkt med full frontkollaps vore s\u00e5klart str\u00e5lande men tar man av sig positivhatten s\u00e5 b\u00f6r det v\u00e4l bli \u00f6kande intensitet \u00f6ver tid tills det brister och den enda front d\u00e4r ett avg\u00f6rande kommer direkt \u00e4r s\u00f6dra fronten N\u00c4R det brister. Vid Bakhmut- Siversk, norra Luhansk och m\u00f6rkaste Donbass blir det rimligen serier av offensiver d\u00e5 det finns f\u00f6rsvarslinjer i djup och ytorna \u00e4r st\u00f6rre.<\/p>\n

Detta f\u00f6rutsatt att inte n\u00e5n av bubblarna kickar in och RU l\u00e4mnar f\u00e4ltet helt uppe i norra Luhansk till exempel f\u00f6r att dom m\u00e5ste v\u00e4lja var dom vill f\u00f6rsvara. Eller l\u00e4mnar UA helt \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Ett tidigt m\u00e5l f\u00f6r v\u00e5roffensiven som vi v\u00e4l diskuterade i tr\u00e5den var schackdraget att isolera Krim och sen \u00e5terta norra Luhansk \u2013 har man kommit s\u00e5 l\u00e5ngt har man vunnit och det \u00e4r bara en fr\u00e5ga om tid.<\/p>\n

St\u00e5r man i norra Luhansk har man n\u00e4mligen alla ryska N-S f\u00f6rs\u00f6rjningsv\u00e4gar innan l\u00e4mpligt avst\u00e5nd och Krim g\u00e5r aldrig att f\u00f6rst\u00e4rka upp s\u00e5 det faller \u00f6ver tid precis som Kherson.<\/p>\n

Eftersom man kan st\u00f6ra ut all f\u00f6rs\u00f6rjning in i Donbass blir det omr\u00e5det ocks\u00e5 om\u00f6jligt att f\u00f6rsvara \u00f6ver tid. \u00c5terst\u00e5r bara m\u00f6rkaste Donbass kan man ocks\u00e5 poola ihop sina b\u00e4sta f\u00f6rband f\u00f6r den slutstriden.<\/p>\n

De utslagna br\u00e4nsledep\u00e5erna \u00e4r mycket intressant, man b\u00f6r ha lyckats st\u00f6ra ut den logistikkedjan r\u00e4tt h\u00e5rt nu men br\u00e4nsle k\u00e4nns inte som det viktigaste h\u00e4r, vad har jag missat?<\/p>\n

Ammunitionen b\u00f6r man v\u00e4l ha g\u00e5tt efter redan innan man \u00f6vergick till br\u00e4nslet?<\/p>\n

Sabotagen mot t\u00e5g g\u00f6r ju att man inte kan k\u00f6ra ned f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkningar snabbt heller.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1655161062268837889?s=46&t=C5eRIViO8lLQfglMCcg4LA<\/a><\/p>\n

Bevis f\u00f6r Leo2 i UA
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1655292968922759168?s=46&t=7GX8xuHLPyPreq39PwbZPg<\/a><\/p>\n

Girkin verkligen h\u00e5rd-deppar. Vi f\u00f6rst\u00e5r alla att det var mobilisering i Januari som kr\u00e4vdes.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/VolodyaTretyak\/status\/1655186960577703941?s=20<\/a><\/p>\n

Den h\u00e4r var v\u00e4l kanske uppe av tr\u00e5dens egen levande legend Erik14 men den var med p\u00e5 min lista \u2013 som god tv\u00e5a postar jag \u00f6vning av brol\u00e4ggare.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/militarylandnet\/status\/1655238971717287936?s=46&t=kscbBH0NGcgbGsZ7lV47sg<\/a><\/p>\n

Nedan \u00e4r bland den mest sj\u00e4lvs\u00e4kra text jag n\u00e5gonsin l\u00e4st, s\u00e5 skriver bara en vinnare.
\nhttps:\/\/www.ukrinform.net\/rubric-ato\/3706005-russia-to-panic-when-ukraine-launches-counteroffensive-deputy-defense-chief.html<\/a><\/p>\n

H\u00e4r \u00e4r en \u00e5sikt som anser att RU har 150k reserves.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1655051648870367232?s=46&t=C5eRIViO8lLQfglMCcg4LA<\/a><\/p>\n

En b\u00e5tf\u00e4rd som ser lugnare ut \u00e4n min idag, h\u00e4r \u00e4r det h\u00f6g sj\u00f6\u2026
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/ukrainiansquad\/status\/1655178385121837056?s=46&t=C5eRIViO8lLQfglMCcg4LA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:05 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

D\u00f6d \u00e5t Slemgnomen \u270a<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:44 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+1<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:53 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:21 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Cherson byggdes upp under l\u00e5ng tid.
\nIzyum gick fort men sen tog det stopp r\u00e4tt snart.<\/p>\n

Skicket p\u00e5 det ryska f\u00f6rsvaret \u00e4r sv\u00e5rbed\u00f6mt \u2013 min gissning \u00e4r att offensiva reserver \u00e4r +50 000st och sen \u00e4r det nya talanger med lite stridserfarenhet. Vi tror att dom \u00e4r korta p\u00e5 h\u00e5rda fordon och n\u00e4rPV men vi vet inte.
\nFlyg har dom tyv\u00e4rr 300-400st av.<\/p>\n

UA kommer sl\u00e5 d\u00e4r RU \u00e4r svaga och dom har kapacitet idag p\u00e5 alla fronter s\u00e5 RU kan inte poola till n\u00e5gon front och f\u00f6rsvaga n\u00e5gonstans, d\u00e5 klipper UA bara till d\u00e4r ist\u00e4llet.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r nog det Gregg kallar \u201dkatt och r\u00e5tta lek\u201d?<\/p>\n

RU har enorma str\u00e4ckor att transportera mellan olika fronter, UA har korta avst\u00e5nd.<\/p>\n

UA har slagit h\u00e5rt mot artilleriet, mot bakre underh\u00e5llet och nu frontn\u00e4ra f\u00f6rbek\u00e4mpning.<\/p>\n

Varje g\u00e5ng UA g\u00e5tt fram\u00e5t senaste m\u00e5naden kommer dom r\u00e4tt l\u00e5ngt \u201d1.5km\u201d \u00e4r en bra bit i offensiva termer p\u00e5 en dag, fr\u00e5ga Wagner som tar n\u00e5t hundratal meter i veckan. D\u00e5 har f\u00f6rsvar kollapsat.<\/p>\n

Sen rusar RU in insatsstyrkan och f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker plugga h\u00e5len.<\/p>\n

Det vi inte sett \u00e4nnu \u00e4r UA nya murbr\u00e4ckor (tror jag) utan det \u00e4r fortfarande brigaderna vid fronterna som f\u00f6r sina spaningsstrider. Det \u00e4r v\u00e4l den styrkan som kallas f\u00f6r \u201doffensiven\u201d och som alla v\u00e4ntar p\u00e5 att den skall s\u00e4ttas in.<\/p>\n

Beh\u00f6ver dom prioritera TROR jag att norra Luhansk kommer offras. Visst st\u00f6d har jag f\u00f6r det i att dom har f\u00f6rsvagat d\u00e4ruppe n\u00e4r dom beh\u00f6vt f\u00f6rband f\u00f6r sin vinteroffensiv.<\/p>\n

Jag TROR att dom kommer f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka f\u00f6rsvara staden Luhansk, staden Donetsk och staden Horlivka.<\/p>\n

Lyckas UA ta ned till Azov kommer alla f\u00f6rband V om den linjen att retirera ned till Krim f\u00f6rr eller senare f\u00f6r dom \u00e4r d\u00e5 utsatta fr\u00e5n 4 h\u00e5ll om man lands\u00e4tter marininfanteriet mellan Kinburn Spit \u2013 Krim.
\nDom kommer ocks\u00e5 vara livr\u00e4dda f\u00f6r att landv\u00e4gen till Krim klipps s\u00e5 d\u00e4r kommer det g\u00e5 fort.<\/p>\n

F\u00f6rbanden \u00d6 d\u00e4rom har tyv\u00e4rr ryggen fri fortfarande.<\/p>\n

Slutstriden borde st\u00e5 i m\u00f6rkaste Donbass.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:49 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Sm\u00e5 glimtar information man gillar.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1655569145545601025?s=46&t=jIYbJ61jTkZr918EkUASNQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:41 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+1000 (meter)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

18:25 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

R\u00e5ttbussarna g\u00e5r i skytteltrafik<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1655604554480726017?s=46&t=jIYbJ61jTkZr918EkUASNQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:20 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

Till er nerv\u00f6sa \u00f6ver en ev. spr\u00e4ngning av kraftverket.
\nSer vi dem springa hela v\u00e4gen hem till Ryssland innan Ukraina ens dragit i g\u00e5ng offensiven p\u00e5 allvar \u00e4r det m\u00f6jligen dags att bli orolig.
\nSka man spr\u00e4nga vill man vara l\u00e5ngt borta.. Vet ju aldrig hur vindarna kommer att bl\u00e5sa..<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:41 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

\u270ago blue <\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1655630555201822736?s=46&t=e8qfoTq3AhWrY4FRXUldCg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:35 \u2013 Johan No.1 Japp, f\u00f6re detta sovjetstaterna har r\u00e4tt liberal inst\u00e4llning till sanktionerna. Kina levererar nog en hel del. 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