{"id":7827,"date":"2023-05-09T07:37:21","date_gmt":"2023-05-09T05:37:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-05-09\/"},"modified":"2023-05-09T07:37:21","modified_gmt":"2023-05-09T05:37:21","slug":"2023-05-09","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-05-09\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-05-09"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

10:01 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Om ni minns f\u00f6rra \u00e5ret tittade jag p\u00e5 2021 \u00e5rs parad och skrev ett l\u00e5ngt inl\u00e4gg om det s\u00e5 anstr\u00e4nger mig lite extra s\u00e5 jag slipper sk\u00e4mma ut mig tv\u00e5 \u00e5r i rad.<\/p>\n

En bl\u00e4nkare om motanfall i Bakhmut fick vi ig\u00e5r igen och sen kunde bloggaren meddela att det r\u00f6rt sig n\u00e5n kilometer \u00f6sterut uppe vid Kupiansk.<\/p>\n

Vi hade tidigare information fr\u00e5n Kreminna men d\u00e5 betyder det v\u00e4l att det \u00e4r aktivitet l\u00e4ngs hela norra luhanskfronten ocks\u00e5 nu rimligen och d\u00e5 \u00e4r alla fronter aktiva med (spanings) strider?<\/p>\n

Har UA n\u00e5gonsin varit aktiva vid alla fronter samtidigt, dom har v\u00e4l tidigare genomf\u00f6rt lokala anfall och sen varit i f\u00f6rsvar p\u00e5 andra fronter. Att dom kan f\u00f6ra (spanings) strid vid alla fronter \u00e4r v\u00e4l positivt?<\/p>\n

Ni kan vara s\u00e4kra p\u00e5 att vi kommer f\u00e5 h\u00f6ra n\u00e4r nyutrustadebrigader s\u00e4tts in, inte ens Elons ukrainafilter kommer kunna stoppa den v\u00e5rfloden av gl\u00e4dje n\u00e4r leoparderna och bradleys sl\u00e4ppts l\u00f6sa.<\/p>\n

S\u00e5 en gissning \u00e4r att det \u00e4r befintliga brigader som strider nu och i alla fall undertecknad tycker att framryckningar p\u00e5 upp till 1.5km \u00e4r ganska stora h\u00e4ndelser \u00e4ven om dom inte fullt exploateras p\u00e5 det s\u00e4tt vi l\u00e4rde oss i saving private ryan.<\/p>\n

T\u00e4nk vilken existentiell \u00e5ngest ryska f\u00f6rsvaret m\u00e5ste ha just nu, varje dag bryts dom ned lite till och small size m\u00e4skdunk \u00e4r slut.<\/p>\n

Ett r\u00e4tt s\u00e4kert diktators-tecken \u00e4r det vi ser hos Putin just nu t\u00e4nket jag \u2013 rakt in i kaklet.<\/p>\n

Hans arm\u00e9 snor civila kl\u00e4der f\u00f6r att kunna fly s\u00f6dra fronten \u2013 k\u00e4nns inte som den ryska imperialistiska arm\u00e9n direkt n\u00e4r dom springer runt i skogarna i kjolar och shorts och f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker se ut som en familj civilister d\u00e4r b\u00e5de fru, man och barn \u00e4r lika l\u00e5nga och kortsnaggade.<\/p>\n

Fr\u00e5gan om dom skulle starta vid n\u00e5gon front f\u00f6rst eller inom ett f\u00f6nster k\u00f6ra en simultan start finns det v\u00e4l indikationer att vi har svar p\u00e5?<\/p>\n

Det h\u00e4r m\u00e5ste vara enormt stressande f\u00f6r ryssarna att det lyser r\u00f6tt \u00f6verallt och sen veta att det st\u00e5r 20st mekbrigader och v\u00e4ntar i utg\u00e5ngsgruppering s\u00e5 dom kan n\u00e5 5-6 UFA f\u00f6r olika anfallsvektorer p\u00e5 n\u00e5n halvdag.
\nUA har f\u00f6rm\u00e5gan att sm\u00e4lla p\u00e5 vid vilket frontavsnitt som helst \u00e4r i alla fall min bed\u00f6mning.<\/p>\n

Hade jag varit ryska stridsledningen hade jag lagt den h\u00e4r v\u00e4ntetiden p\u00e5 att googla asyl i l\u00e4mpligt land.<\/p>\n

Minns ni i Kherson s\u00e5 r\u00f6rde det sig inte en meter, dom f\u00f6rs\u00f6kte ta sig \u00f6ver vid Davyidiv Brid och det var mycket l\u00e5ng tid innan det r\u00f6rde p\u00e5 sig.<\/p>\n

Att dom tar 1km -1-5km under en f\u00f6rmiddag b\u00e5dar gott och nu har det skett lite \u00f6verallt men \u00e4r det f\u00f6rsvar i klass med Cherson hur det \u00e4r byggt tar det rimligen l\u00e5ng tid om inte n\u00e5n av bubblarna kickar in.<\/p>\n

Det kommer bli en l\u00e5ng sommar.<\/p>\n

Sen tror jag att dom h\u00e4r robotanfallen var rysslands stora sm\u00e4ll inf\u00f6r 9 Maj, finns ingen stor plan utan man bl\u00e5ste p\u00e5 med det man hade.<\/p>\n

Ombyggd T62 med ett BMP-2 torn. K\u00e4nns fr\u00e4scht faktiskt.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/thedeaddistrict\/status\/1655415699530043395?s=46&t=y7i_VY7boOE4aTMldZwXIA<\/a><\/p>\n

Ny RU numer\u00e4r, kanske liknande den \u201dskr\u00e4mselpropagandan\u201d jag postade h\u00e4romdagen?
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/friaukraina\/status\/1655292968046063623?s=46&t=7GX8xuHLPyPreq39PwbZPg<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:40 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Hur jag s\u00e5g paraden \u2013 trots ih\u00e4rdiga rykten var det ingen st\u00f6rre skillnad mot f\u00f6rra \u00e5ret.<\/p>\n

Soldaterna var v\u00e4l \u00e5rets v\u00e4rnpliktiga eller fr\u00e5n den reserv p\u00e5 150k dom h\u00e5llit tillbaka?<\/p>\n

Nu har v\u00e4l Putin sina kopior verkar v\u00e4l vara allm\u00e4nt accepterat men det d\u00e4r s\u00e5g ut som f\u00f6rra \u00e5ret (och 2021 som v\u00e4l var den jag lade en dag p\u00e5 d\u00e5\u2026). Dock s\u00e5 r\u00f6rde den h\u00e4r Putin inte p\u00e5 h\u00f6gerarmen s\u00e5 var det en kopia eller Hypnopaddan i egen l\u00e5g person, vad s\u00e4ger de som kan sin sak?<\/p>\n

Nu kanske det \u00e4r b\u00e5ten och de h\u00f6ga v\u00e5gorna som p\u00e5verkar men viss besvikelse att det inte h\u00e4nde n\u00e5got kul men det var roligt att spekulera kring det veckan innan \u2013 s\u00e5nt kan man leva l\u00e4nge p\u00e5.<\/p>\n

Sen fick jag tyv\u00e4rr samma k\u00e4nsla som f\u00f6rra \u00e5ret \u2013 tr\u00f6gheten \u00e4r enorm fortfarande.<\/p>\n

Noterbart ocks\u00e5 att UA inte har \u00f6kat intensiteten f\u00f6rbi (spanings) strider s\u00e5 de som ans\u00e5g att symbolik \u00e4r f\u00f6r de svaga fick r\u00e4tt igen \u2013 som s\u00e5 ofta f\u00f6rut.<\/p>\n

Sammantaget ser jag UA agerande p\u00e5 marken som mycket positivt men tr\u00f6gheten och gr\u00e4nsl\u00f6sheten i landet Ryssland \u00e4r som en cancer i mj\u00e4lten man vill bli av med fortast m\u00f6jligt. Jag \u00e4r absolut p\u00e5verkad av det h\u00e4r kriget hur h\u00e4nsynsl\u00f6st den ryska barbar-staten beter sig och har mer \u00e4n en g\u00e5ng funderat p\u00e5 hur kul det skulle vara i en av deras tortyrcentraler med garanterad d\u00f6d efter veckor av tortyr. Den historien saknar ett lyckligt slut alla dagar i veckan och ingen g\u00e5r s\u00e4ker, barn s\u00e5 sm\u00e5 som ett \u00e5r har torterats och historierna \u00e4r absolut obegripliga. Det verkar som att sexualsadistisk diagnos \u00e4r ett krav f\u00f6r att f\u00e5 g\u00f6ra milit\u00e4rtj\u00e4nst.<\/p>\n

Den andra cancern som man vill bli av med \u00e4r de ideologiska eller avl\u00f6nade proryssarna eller ryss-apologeterna som historiskt har ett gott \u00f6ga till Sovjet och sen Ryssland, eller de som helt enkelt inte f\u00e5r till sig r\u00e4tt nyheter. \u00d6ver tid f\u00e5r man allt sv\u00e5rare att f\u00f6ra en st\u00e4dad diskussion med dom och jag har l\u00f6st det s\u00e5 att jag inte n\u00e4mner kriget i grupper man inte \u00e4r s\u00e4ker p\u00e5 hur dom tycker.
\nPlanen var det inget fel p\u00e5 men en middag med nya jobbet blev lite stel efter att jag inte kunde h\u00e5lla mig, kanske inte det b\u00e4sta f\u00f6r l\u00f6netrappan.<\/p>\n

Jo nu f\u00e5r jag \u00e5terg\u00e5 till m\u00e5lande beskrivningar av hur Ukraina kommer k\u00f6ra \u00f6ver solande \u00f6dla i grop i n\u00e4rtid.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:42 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Vid n\u00e4rmare eftertanke kanske det var 2022 \u00e5rs parad jag s\u00e5g igen och tyckte den s\u00e5g likadan ut\u2026<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

10:55 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Jag ska f\u00f6rs\u00f6ka f\u00e5 fram en r\u00e4ttvisande bild av rysk numer\u00e4r och en r\u00e4ttvisande bild av UA f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga, just dom brukar vara en del pyssel faktiskt \u00e4ven om jag l\u00e5tsas som att dom tar en kvart p\u00e5 morgonen.<\/p>\n

Visst \u00e4r det roligt att h\u00e4ckla ryss i grop men det \u00e4r oro f\u00f6r hur det h\u00e4r kommer spela ut.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:02 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

D\u00f6d \u00e5t cancer!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:08 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

+1 Blir intressant att se var du hamnar!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:31 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Jag vet att jaktr\u00e4tten h\u00e4grar h\u00e4r och att vi redan kommit till tisdag s\u00e5 mycket storsint fr\u00e5n dig Dengamle \ud83d\ude00<\/p>\n

Eftersom jag blandar h\u00f6gt och l\u00e5gt \u00e4r det r\u00f6rigt tom. f\u00f6r mig ibland men vad jag tror \u00e4r \u2013 f\u00f6nstret f\u00f6r att p\u00e5b\u00f6rja offensiva operationer har inletts och intensiteten p\u00e5 (spanings) striderna \u00e4r h\u00f6g.<\/p>\n

Vi har inte sett de tunga elefanterna (nyutrustade brigaderna men tunga elefanter l\u00e5ter manligare) \u00e4nnu f\u00f6r det hade vi h\u00f6rt.<\/p>\n

Vid ett flertal frontavsnitt har UA avancerat 1km \u2013 1-5km. Det g\u00f6r man bara genom att sk\u00e4ra igenom f\u00f6rsvaret och d\u00e5 \u00e4r det helt rimligt att anta att n\u00e5gon enhet lagt benen p\u00e5 ryggen?<\/p>\n

Det h\u00e4r \u00e4r allts\u00e5 inte de enorma Saving Private Ryan genombrott jag dr\u00f6mmer om s\u00e5 Dengamles jaktr\u00e4tt tickar fortfarande p\u00e5.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:10 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Dom s\u00e4ger north of the mainroad to ivanivske.
\nSprang in p\u00e5 Deepstate och Ivanivske \u00e4r i UA hand och \u00e4r filmen fr\u00e5n N om T0504 s\u00e5 var det v\u00e4l ingen j\u00e4ttegrej (tyv\u00e4rr\u2026).
\nNu kanske jag tolkade allt helt fel?<\/p>\n

Alternativ tolkning \u00e4r att dom st\u00e5r p\u00e5 mainroad (T0504) som g\u00e5r \u00d6-V riktning.
\nDet har varit n\u00e5gra bl\u00e4nkare om h\u00e5rda strider d\u00e4r.
\nDet kan betyda att dom tryckt tillbaka barbarerna \u00d6 en bit in i skogsb\u00e4ltet.
\nDetta d\u00e5 dom \u00e4r v\u00e4ldigt exponerade s\u00e5 det finns iallafall ingen barbar i n\u00e4romr\u00e5det.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:15 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h4>\n

Kanske har med LWs 13:52 att g\u00f6ra..<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

14:15 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

S\u00e5 den andra tolkningen skulle d\u00e5 vara att UA avancerat.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
14:20 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

Ja, t\u00e4nkte s\u00e5 att det kan vara precis som SVAMPBOB skriver. Att man ryckt fram, tagit en del f\u00f6rluster men s\u00e4krat upp omr\u00e5det.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
14:31 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h6>\n

Det kom f\u00f6r n\u00e5gra dagar sedan en oneliner om h\u00e5rda strider vid v\u00e4g T0503.
\nJag satt och guppade p\u00e5 b\u00e5ten men tolkade det som att det var uppe vid Khromove i min sj\u00f6sjuka.<\/p>\n

Nu har jag f\u00f6rst\u00e5tt att det \u00e4r nere vid Ivanivske.<\/p>\n

Allt tyder v\u00e4l egentligen p\u00e5 att UA sm\u00e4llt till p\u00e5 den flanken?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
16:40 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h6>\n

F\u00e5r ju den k\u00e4nslan..<\/p>\n

Sen har vi det h\u00e4r:<\/p>\n

\u201dRussians relocated forces in the Bakhmut area for attack; Ukrainians advanced near Khromove, and carried out a massive HIMARS raid, making Russians believe counteroffensive was to start May 9 at midnight.\u201d<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/EuromaidanPress\/status\/1655943255186612226<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

19:08 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Var denna uppe?
\nMek vid T0504?
\nTidpunkt oklar men mycket om T0504 nu.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1655921418054320129?s=46&t=SfVur7pUVoxU-v3fAMSN1w<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

21:25 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

H\u00e4r flydde ryssarna \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1656016512258383874?s=46&t=yWeX7E-D4DfVKUQnS1R8Bw<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

23:47 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

10:01 \u2013 Johan No.1 Om ni minns f\u00f6rra \u00e5ret tittade jag p\u00e5 2021 \u00e5rs parad och skrev ett l\u00e5ngt inl\u00e4gg 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