{"id":7832,"date":"2023-05-13T07:55:51","date_gmt":"2023-05-13T05:55:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-05-13\/"},"modified":"2023-05-13T07:55:51","modified_gmt":"2023-05-13T05:55:51","slug":"2023-05-13","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-05-13\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-05-13"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:35 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Nu st\u00e5r UA sannolikt och hoppar rakt inne i RU beslutscirkel vid Bakhmutfronten.<\/p>\n

\u00d6vergivna st\u00e4llningar SV om bebyggelsen Bakhmut samtidigt som Wagner forts\u00e4tter anfalla i Bakhmut och samtidigt som UA g\u00e5r fram\u00e5t norr om Bakhmut vid tv\u00e5 (2) punkter.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/noelreports\/status\/1656975959680077824?s=46&t=D57NBCS3CqT8UxIVjVmmbQ<\/a>
\nMosaiken av f\u00f6rband verkar inte prata sinsemellan och olika f\u00f6rband f\u00f6rst\u00e5r inte vad som h\u00e4nder inom samma geografiska omr\u00e5de.<\/p>\n

En order om retr\u00e4tt kommer missas av en del f\u00f6rband och andra kommer k\u00f6ra rakt in i UA fr\u00e4mre som hunnit f\u00f6rbi dom och d\u00f6.<\/p>\n

S\u00f6der om 72nd brigade st\u00e5r antingen en DPR brigad eller en VDV brigad \u2013 Erik14 meddelade ig\u00e5r att det var ett regement fr\u00e5n 106 VDV s\u00e5 vi k\u00f6r p\u00e5 det.<\/p>\n

Nu har jag faktiskt tittat p\u00e5 Accentmannen och nedan stycke \u00e4r snott fr\u00e5n honom: ovanf\u00f6r (norr om) 72nd brigade stod tydligen 4th Motorized brigade, en LNR brigad om jag f\u00f6rst\u00e5tt det r\u00e4tt.<\/p>\n

4th \u00f6vergav Klischivka vilken \u00e4r n\u00e4sta f\u00f6rsvar i djupled och d\u00e4r var Wagner tvungna att fylla p\u00e5 f\u00f6r att det inte skulle kollapsa totalt.<\/p>\n

4th Separate motorized brigade skall vara upp vid Soledar enligt f\u00f6rbandskartorna.<\/p>\n

P\u00e5 ett litet geografiskt omr\u00e5de fanns det minst tv\u00e5 brigader och tv\u00e5 PMC (Wagner och Gazprom), vilken soppa.
\nJag anser att vi fick en viss f\u00f6rklaring till hur f\u00f6rsvaret ser ut p\u00e5 djupet men vi vet fortfarande inte hur djupt dom valt att f\u00f6rsvara.<\/p>\n

Norr om Bakhmut l\u00e5g 9th motorized brigade som retirerade vilken skall finnas uppe i norra Luhansk vid Kupiansk.<\/p>\n

Nu f\u00f6rst\u00e5r jag varf\u00f6r Defmon slutade uppdatera sin karta f\u00f6r det \u00e4r en galen soppa. F\u00f6rband flyttas mellan olika fronter helt planl\u00f6st och det har ju tillf\u00e5ngatagna soldater vittnat om sj\u00e4lva.<\/p>\n

Sen en bl\u00e4nkare om att 200th Motorized Brigade l\u00e4mnat st\u00e4llningar fr\u00e5n Manul \u2013 \u00e4r det n\u00e5gon som lyckats hitta orterna f\u00f6r jag gjorde det inte?<\/p>\n

Min stora fr\u00e5ga \u00e4r samma som ig\u00e5r \u2013 var \u00e4r VDV, vi vet att f\u00f6r n\u00e5n\/n\u00e5gra m\u00e5nad(er) sedan \u201d\u00f6vertog\u201d VDV anfallen inne i Bakhmut OCH dom skulle tagit \u00f6ver hela flankskyddet, jag minns inte riktigt n\u00e4r detta var.<\/p>\n

Ni minns inl\u00e4gget hur Wagner f\u00f6rsvarade mindre och mindre yta och VDV anf\u00f6ll \u2013 det var eliten som anf\u00f6ll enligt Gregg och p\u00e5 f\u00f6rbandskartorna s\u00e5g vi olika VDV regementen flyttas in kring Bakhmut.<\/p>\n

Nu har man sopat p\u00e5 halva v\u00e4nstra flanken och det \u00e4r LNR, DPR och tidigare slitna brigader och f\u00f6r mig \u00e4r det f\u00f6r m\u00e5nga brigader p\u00e5 f\u00f6r liten yta \u2013 n\u00e5got st\u00e4mmer inte.<\/p>\n

Eller det g\u00f6r det om RU har k\u00f6rt in helt slutk\u00f6rda brigader som varit decimerade till mycket liten styrka som flankskydd vid Bakhmut f\u00f6r att det \u00e4r lugnt d\u00e4r.<\/p>\n

En mycket stor mosaik av olika brigader som n\u00f6tts ned till ett par kompanier var \u2013 man har ju anfallit \u00f6ver halva den s\u00f6dra flanken redan. Det h\u00e4r b\u00f6rjar k\u00e4nnas som sj\u00e4lva definitionen av en potemkinkuliss men jag f\u00f6rst\u00e5r att jag springer rej\u00e4lt i f\u00f6rv\u00e4g just nu och f\u00e5r sansa mig f\u00f6r jag gissar vilt kring skicket p\u00e5 brigaderna \u2013 flaggar f\u00f6r att det kan vara akut \u00e5terfall i positivism.<\/p>\n

Vad vi d\u00e4remot VET \u00e4r att en (1) UA brigad fick tv\u00e5 RU brigader och en PMC p\u00e5 flykt och att det beh\u00f6vdes en PMC till f\u00f6r att stabilisera situationen.<\/p>\n

Jag b\u00f6rjar misst\u00e4nka att man dragit bort VDV fr\u00e5n Bakhmut men vart is\u00e5fall eller \u00e4r dom slut? <\/p>\n

Det skulle v\u00e4l finnas 25 000st ryska barbarer vid Bakhmutfronten men det \u00e4r fr\u00e5n S Bakhmut upp till Soledar rimligen?
\nUA har en sl\u00e4gga p\u00e5 kanske +80 000st av befintliga brigader i omr\u00e5det att dr\u00e4mma till med l\u00e4ngs med den fronten och det verkar som f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga och kvalitet sl\u00e5r kvantitet i de strider vi sett s\u00e5 i slut\u00e4ndan kanske dom genomf\u00f6r operationen med f\u00e5 brigader.<\/p>\n

N\u00e4r UA s\u00e5 sm\u00e5ningom jagat runt Wagner et.al i Bakhmut tills dom fl\u00e5sande s\u00e4tter sig ner p\u00e5 en stubbe och ger upp d\u00e5 \u00f6ppnas helt pl\u00f6tsligt en N anfallsvektor mot Horlivka upp som RU inte byggt f\u00f6rsvar emot \u2013 det kan bli sp\u00e4nnande om det g\u00e5r fort h\u00e4r.<\/p>\n

Den andra anfallsvektorn i Operation Bakhmut verkar kunna vara p\u00e5 n\u00e5gon sida om Soledar och rakt s\u00f6derut, opsec ligger v\u00e4l t\u00e4tt d\u00e4ruppe men UA har g\u00e5tt fram\u00e5t h\u00e5rt n\u00e5nstans d\u00e4ruppe ocks\u00e5.<\/p>\n

N\u00e4r man \u00d6VER TID st\u00e4dat upp omr\u00e5det blir det en S\u00d6 push mot Alchevsk under (s\u00f6der) om Siversky Donets och det omr\u00e5det torde tillh\u00f6ra det s\u00e4mst f\u00f6rsvarade av alla fronter.<\/p>\n

RU m\u00e5ste i detta nu best\u00e4mma sig f\u00f6r om dom vill st\u00e4rka upp Bakhmutfronten eller om dom vill dra sig tillbaka.<\/p>\n

The End f\u00f6r operation befria Bakhmut.<\/p>\n

Fr\u00e5n N om Vuhledar till Horlivka b\u00f6r vi se \u00f6kat tryck och jag tycker vi h\u00f6r om det, brister det gasar man v\u00e4l p\u00e5 men huvudsyftet \u00e4r inte att ta terr\u00e4ng eller att sl\u00e5 i det omr\u00e5det rimligen, det borde vara att binda RU trupp vid Horlivka och staden Donetsk som \u00e4r h\u00f6gv\u00e4rdiga m\u00e5l att f\u00f6rsvara.<\/p>\n

En tidig id\u00e9 i tr\u00e5den var att UA skulle k\u00f6ra skytte \u00f6ver Dnepr som gick i f\u00f6rsvar i l\u00e4ttf\u00f6rsvarade samh\u00e4llen under eget artparaply och CAS som RU sen beh\u00f6vde eliminera hotet fr\u00e5n och dom skulle ta existentiella f\u00f6rluster redan under uppmarschen \u00f6ver de \u00f6ppna f\u00e4lten. Operation korsa Dnepr som vi alltid trodde stenh\u00e5rt p\u00e5.<\/p>\n

Jag ser tecken p\u00e5 mer ambition och att ha ett fullt utvecklat brohuvud runt Antonovskybron, det \u00e4r i ett omr\u00e5de med mycket skyl.<\/p>\n

Khakovka m\u00e5ste dom v\u00e4l s\u00e4kra upp gissar jag men det blir sv\u00e5rt att g\u00e5 \u00f6ver de \u00f6ppna f\u00e4lten som b\u00f6rjar direkt efter bebyggelsen?<\/p>\n

Och norr d\u00e4rom finns det bra samh\u00e4llen att g\u00e5 i f\u00f6rsvar i.<\/p>\n

Min tanke \u00e4r att UA landstiger S\u00d6 Kinburn Spit p\u00e5 l\u00e4mpliga platser med marines, alternativt projicerar att dom kommer g\u00f6ra det.<\/p>\n

Dom korsar ocks\u00e5 Dnepr p\u00e5 flera platser och bygger upp ett regelr\u00e4tt tungt brohuvud i omr\u00e5det S\u00d6 om Antonovskybron.<\/p>\n

Om dom samtidigt f\u00e5r genombrott vid s\u00f6dra fronten kommer nog RU sj\u00e4lvmant t\u00f6mma omr\u00e5det av r\u00e4dsla f\u00f6r att \u201dkrimbroarna\u201d (landtungan till Krim) skall kapas.<\/p>\n

D\u00e5 slipper UA ta omr\u00e5det i strid utan rullar in n\u00e4r pirra med tv\u00e4ttmaskin l\u00e4mnat.<\/p>\n

Man projicerar ett s\u00e5 pass starkt hot att RU helt enkelt l\u00e4gger benen p\u00e5 ryggen i omr\u00e5det bakom s\u00f6dra fronten.<\/p>\n

Det kr\u00e4vs dock ett genombrott f\u00f6r det och misslyckas man vid s\u00f6dra fronten kan man v\u00e4l g\u00f6ra ett f\u00f6rs\u00f6k fr\u00e5n Dnepr, men man beh\u00f6ver inte g\u00e5 fram\u00e5t p\u00e5 b\u00e5da platserna (tror jag).<\/p>\n

Bollen \u00e4r i alla fall i rullning, f\u00f6nstret f\u00f6r offensiv \u00e4r inlett och jag tror att Prigozins prat-skrik videor bidrar till att demoralisera RU f\u00f6rsvar r\u00e4tt mycket. Arm\u00e9n har ju vetat att Wagner \u00e4r lite b\u00e4ttre \u00e4n dom och nu f\u00e5r dom stryk.<\/p>\n

\u00c4r du rysk soldat vid s\u00f6dra fronten och ser hur UA sk\u00e4r igenom p\u00e5 dagar i Bakhmut, och du vet att du \u00e4r tv\u00e5a \u2013 d\u00e5 letar man nog alternativ.<\/p>\n

Tittar ni p\u00e5 hur artilleriet ligger i Bakhmut s\u00e5 f\u00f6rbek\u00e4mpar dom direkt n\u00e4sta anfallsm\u00e5l och dom stannar inte upp \u2013 signalerar ambition att trycka p\u00e5 ytterligare.<\/p>\n

Psyopsen g\u00e5r p\u00e5 h\u00f6gvarv och RU \u00e4r oroliga f\u00f6r anfall mot Belgorod bland annat. Det l\u00e5ser trupp, UA kan ju alltid skjuta lite artilleri, lite dr\u00f6narkrigf\u00f6ring och lite spaning som r\u00f6r sig i Ryssland s\u00e5 blir hotet om n\u00e4ra f\u00f6rest\u00e5ende offensiv akut och m\u00e5ste m\u00f6tas upp genom att binda f\u00f6rband d\u00e4r.<\/p>\n

Huvudanfallsm\u00e5let \u00e4r v\u00e4l rimligen s\u00f6dra fronten tror i alla fall undertecknad.<\/p>\n

Sen har vi stridsledning och krig, UA har s\u00e5 h\u00e4r l\u00e5ngt visat sig vara mycket snabba p\u00e5 att utnyttja \u00f6ppningar och skulle dom f\u00e5 nos p\u00e5 s\u00e4g Horlivka och k\u00e4nna att dom har m\u00f6jlighet k\u00f6r dom v\u00e4l rimligen p\u00e5?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:43 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

S\u00e5g Accentmannen som postades i dagens tr\u00e5d och d\u00e4r ans\u00e5g RU att UA anfaller med tre bataljoner totalt.<\/p>\n

Hade RU haft fulltaliga regementen och brigader i omr\u00e5det borde det ha kommit v\u00e5ldsamma motanfall nu, insatsstyrkan skall sl\u00e5 r\u00e4tt omg\u00e5ende mot genombrott och SV om Bakhmut misslyckades det tydligen.<\/p>\n

Det som f\u00f6rv\u00e5nar mig \u00e4r hur d\u00e5ligt f\u00f6rsvaret \u00e4r, det \u00e4r strategiskt viktiga punkter som RU \u00f6verger s\u00e5 fort UA trycker p\u00e5.<\/p>\n

Detta \u00e4r mycket sp\u00e4nnande.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:55 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

\u201dStrategiskt viktiga\u201d var fel ord f\u00f6r \u00f6vrigt, lite tidigt h\u00e4r men jag \u00e4r p\u00e5 g\u00e5ng. Var en st\u00e4dad apfri fredagspub ig\u00e5r \ud83d\udc4d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:50 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h3>\n

Muntz har sagt detta i m\u00e5nader redan, han \u00e4r en \u00e4rlig kille.<\/p>\n

tolvkronorsfr\u00e5gan \u00e4r ju nu om Bakhmut \u00e4r representativt f\u00f6r skicket p\u00e5 den barbariska horden eller om det \u00e4r en outlier.<\/p>\n

Man har ju s\u00e5 h\u00e4r l\u00e5ngt anv\u00e4nt under brigadstyrka av befintliga f\u00f6rband och n\u00e5tt stor framg\u00e5ng. De v\u00e4stutrustade \u201delitbrigaderna\u201d har vi inte sett i strid \u00e4nnu och deras f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga torde vara mycket h\u00f6gre i allt, IFV, MBT, m\u00f6rkerstrid och brigadartilleri?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:20 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

\ud83d\udc4dSom vacker poesi!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:35 \u2013 Johan No.1 Nu st\u00e5r UA sannolikt och hoppar rakt inne i RU beslutscirkel vid Bakhmutfronten. \u00d6vergivna st\u00e4llningar SV 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