{"id":7833,"date":"2023-05-14T10:01:45","date_gmt":"2023-05-14T08:01:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-05-14\/"},"modified":"2023-05-14T10:01:45","modified_gmt":"2023-05-14T08:01:45","slug":"2023-05-14","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-05-14\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-05-14"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

13:02<\/h2>\n

Sp\u00e4nnande nu kring Bakhmut.<\/p>\n

Noel n\u00e4mner att det ser bra ut i norra Klischivka och orten Kudymuivka och Deepstatemap f\u00f6resl\u00e5r att dom nosar p\u00e5 det sistn\u00e4mnda samh\u00e4llet redan. Vid Klischivska \u00e4r dom v\u00e4l i skogspartiet norr om NV om orten kanske?<\/p>\n

N\u00e4sta f\u00f6rsvarslinje g\u00e5r v\u00e4l fr\u00e5n (den s\u00f6dra) Zaitseve eller Maiorska upp till Opytne l\u00e4ngs med vattendraget kan man gissa. Bakom den torde det inte finnas mer f\u00f6rsvar i dagsl\u00e4get rimligen?<\/p>\n

S\u00e5 var \u00e4r de ryska motanfallen?<\/p>\n

Det skall finnas insatsstyrkor bakom som genomf\u00f6r aggressiva motanfall men just nu jobbar sig UA metodiskt fram\u00e5t, n\u00e4r dom tagit en position vr\u00e4ker dom p\u00e5 med artilleri och sen g\u00e5r dom vidare till n\u00e4sta.<\/p>\n

Det f\u00f6resl\u00e5r f\u00f6r mig att dom haft en tunn picket-line i omr\u00e5det S bebyggelsen i Bakhmut, att det inte funnits reserver och att det inte funnits en kompetent insatsstyrka.<\/p>\n

Varf\u00f6r beh\u00f6vde man f\u00f6rband fr\u00e5n fem olika enheter p\u00e5 en geografiskt liten yta \u2013 enda f\u00f6rklaringen jag kan se \u00e4r att dom var decimerade f\u00f6r det vore mycket ologiskt att inte l\u00e5ta en brigad sk\u00f6ta om hela f\u00f6rsvaret av ett geografiskt omr\u00e5de.<\/p>\n

Tror man att det var del av brigader har man nog fel f\u00f6r brigadchefen 4 brigaden gick och dog tillsammans med n\u00e5n annan brigad.<\/p>\n

UA anfaller d\u00e4rnere med 1 eller 2 bataljoner.<\/p>\n

Det kan mycket v\u00e4l vara s\u00e5 att RU nu f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker f\u00f6rbereda ett NS f\u00f6rsvar mellan (den s\u00f6dra) Zaitseve och Opytne f\u00f6r att bromsa upp UA i det omr\u00e5det.<\/p>\n

Men d\u00e5 drar man f\u00f6rband n\u00e5gon annanstans ifr\u00e5n och blir svaga d\u00e4r, och UA har 19st brigader till i omr\u00e5det som kan f\u00f6ra strid d\u00e4r.<\/p>\n

Just nu blir det h\u00e4r en whack-a-mole f\u00f6r ryssarna som dom om\u00f6jligt kan parera.<\/p>\n

Ig\u00e5r gick vi v\u00e4l igenom att 4-5st brigader och en PMC retirerat oordnat.<\/p>\n

Det kommer naturligtvis se likadant ut p\u00e5 n\u00e4sta plats UA gasar upp p\u00e5, kanske uppe vid Soledar eller borta i Bilohorivka.<\/p>\n

Vi hade ocks\u00e5 tidigare uppgifter om att det r\u00f6rt sig vid Maiorska just N om Horlivka men jag hittar inget och sedan var det n\u00e5got kring Avdiivka men inget p\u00e5 kartorna.<\/p>\n

En po\u00e4ng kring NG och Territorial. Flera Territorials f\u00f6rband har stridit i Bakhmut hela bel\u00e4gringen och jag \u00e4r av \u00e5sikten att Territorial idag \u00e4r att likna vid dugligt infanteri. Alla Territorials brigader b\u00f6r ses som en man\u00f6verbrigad av de som \u00e4r vid aktiva fronter.<\/p>\n

De minst erfarna sk\u00f6ter gr\u00e4nsskyddet mot Belarus och N om Kharkiv men de som finns vid fronterna och deltar i strid har nog ganska h\u00f6g f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga nu.<\/p>\n

Med lite tur f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker RU skrapa ihop f\u00f6rband till ett f\u00f6rsvar mellan Bakhmut och Horlivka som g\u00e5r bakom vattendraget. D\u00e5 har man dragit ihop dom f\u00f6rbanden fr\u00e5n andra frontavsnitt, f\u00f6rmodligen fr\u00e5n Soledar, norra Luhansk och s\u00f6der om Horlivka.<\/p>\n

Det blir en l\u00e5ng sommar om inte bubblarna kickar in som en stor fyrverkeripj\u00e4s men ist\u00e4llet f\u00f6r att diskutera ryska offensiven eller v\u00e4nta p\u00e5 offensiv s\u00e5 b\u00f6rjar vi se UA terr\u00e4ngvinster p\u00e5 Deepstatemap och att det r\u00f6r p\u00e5 sig \u2013 en otrolig befrielse.<\/p>\n

Nu g\u00e4ller det nog f\u00f6r UA att utnyttja l\u00e5gpunkten s\u00e5 inte RU hinner k\u00f6ra ned alla reserver och repgubbarna dom hittar och stabilisera n\u00e5got.<\/p>\n

K\u00e4nner att Gregg rapporterat aningen m\u00e4rkligt ibland, t\u00e4nker att han kanske f\u00e5r talpunkter som del i psyops?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:20<\/h2>\n

Det forts\u00e4tter kring Bakhmut och vi har f\u00e5tt uppgifter om att ytterligare motanfall slagits tillbaka.<\/p>\n

Det skall vara tv\u00e5 bataljoner som anfaller norr om Bakhmut och f\u00f6rmodligen tv\u00e5 bataljoner s\u00f6der om Bakhmut \u2013 runt en brigad men gissningsvis fr\u00e5n 2-3 olika brigader.<\/p>\n

Sannolikt underst\u00f6tt av Territorial som agerar flankskydd och bef\u00e4ster \u00f6vertagna positioner s\u00e5 spetsen inte utarmas.<\/p>\n

Jag hann s\u00e5klart inte hitta det stora offensiv-inl\u00e4gget \u00f6ver helgen och det var ett annat inl\u00e4gg med hur dom genomf\u00f6r breach som vi v\u00e4l trodde det skulle g\u00e5 till \u2013 kommer s\u00e5 sm\u00e5ningom.<\/p>\n

ISW totals\u00e5gar rysk f\u00f6rm\u00e5ga h\u00e4r och om dom inte stabiliserar situationen vid Bakhmut snart s\u00e5 finns det nog substans bakom detta inl\u00e4gg. <\/p>\n

Det har ju funnits vissa diagnosticerat positiva i tr\u00e5den som skrivit detta s\u00e5 det \u00e4r ju alltid kul n\u00e4r en tungviktare som ISW, som vi alltid respekterat genom hela kriget, skriver det ocks\u00e5 \ud83d\udc4d
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/tendar\/status\/1657697072236183552?s=46&t=48aoeqSd3g4-8CEU-X7SqA<\/a><\/p>\n

Det tekniska inl\u00e4gget om genombrott var ungef\u00e4r s\u00e5 h\u00e4r \u2013
\nUA har loggat alla positioner och sl\u00e5r mot fasta m\u00e5l i f\u00f6rbek\u00e4mpning med m\u00e5lstyrd ammunition inom ett geografiskt omr\u00e5de.<\/p>\n

Deras dr\u00f6nare jagar runt soldaterna i v\u00e4rnssystemen och retirerar dom in i det f\u00f6rst\u00e4rkta v\u00e4rnet s\u00e4tter dom en h\u00f6gexplosiv 155mm i det och tar ut alla.<\/p>\n

N\u00e4r anfallet kommer och ryss i grop skall upp i eldst\u00e4llning \u00e4r dr\u00f6nardroppade vinggranater i v\u00e4ntl\u00e4ge och tar ut PVrobot och n\u00e4rPV f\u00f6rst.<\/p>\n

Man vet sannolikt var PV vapnen ligger och droppar granat p\u00e5 den.<\/p>\n

Samtidigt ligger observationsdr\u00f6narna och ser allt i realtid.<\/p>\n

Sen direkt eld i anfallsm\u00e5let och lite luftbrisader och f\u00f6rsvaret blir omotiverat och tar paus.<\/p>\n

Sen skulle man parera motanfallet fr\u00e5n insatsstyrkan och sen ge sig p\u00e5 n\u00e4sta linje.<\/p>\n

UA har gjort n\u00e5gonting mycket snyggare i Bakhmut \u2013 dom g\u00e5r fram med under kompanis styrka och s\u00e5 fort dom st\u00f6ter p\u00e5 f\u00f6rsvar drar dom sig tillbaka och l\u00e4gger indirekt eld \u00f6ver omr\u00e5det enligt ovan som \u00e4r mycket effektiv och sen stormar dom v\u00e4rnsystemen.<\/p>\n

Om jag inte sov mig igenom alla historielektionerna s\u00e5 var det exakt s\u00e5 US stred i Normandie under WW2?<\/p>\n

Bloggaren Murz bekr\u00e4ftar i stort sett hur UA strider och sen tycker jag han bekr\u00e4ftar den fr\u00e5gan vi st\u00e4llde oss i inl\u00e4ggen nu i ett par dagar \u2013 \u00e4r det svaga brigader p\u00e5 n\u00e5gra hundra var som gemensamt f\u00f6rsvarar ett omr\u00e5de, verkar vara s\u00e5?<\/p>\n

Han anser ocks\u00e5 att UA har total dominans i indirekt eld, vilket man kan f\u00f6rst\u00e5 med ryska ammunitions och artillerif\u00f6rluster samt v\u00e4stliga leveranser.<\/p>\n

UA har allts\u00e5 5st artilleri BRIGADER kring Bakhmutfronten.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/wartranslated\/status\/1657675029813796866?s=46&t=xgWdmSusPZ5cWjJxbbfY0g<\/a><\/p>\n

Prigozin f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker f\u00f6rhandla sig ut genom att f\u00f6rr\u00e5da arm\u00e9n, Wagner b\u00f6rjar se sig omkring efter en out, arm\u00e9brigaderna har l\u00e4mnat sina st\u00e4llningar 4-5st. Brigadchefer g\u00e5r och d\u00f6r.<\/p>\n

Girkin s\u00e4ger att det \u00e4r som 1917 d\u00e4r j-a och Georgierna f\u00f6rst\u00f6rde Ryssland \u2013 landet v\u00e4nder sig snart in\u00e5t men vi f\u00e5r inte sp\u00e5 utfall fr\u00e5n bubblarlistan tyv\u00e4rr.<\/p>\n

Sannolikt f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker RU s\u00e4tta upp h\u00e5rt f\u00f6rsvar mellan Opytne och s\u00f6dra Zaitseve med VDV, det hade jag gjort f\u00f6r det \u00e4r ett vattendrag d\u00e4r.<\/p>\n

Fr\u00e5gan \u00e4r var dom dragit f\u00f6rbanden ifr\u00e5n.<\/p>\n

Det h\u00e4r kommer tugga p\u00e5 och n\u00e4r Azovbrigaden beh\u00f6ver stridspaus byter man till n\u00e4sta brigad.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r allts\u00e5 1\/20 brigader i omr\u00e5det som har satts in i strid och dom har n\u00e5tt mycket stora framg\u00e5ngar p\u00e5 n\u00e5gra dagar.<\/p>\n

Sen har det r\u00f6rt sig S om Vuhledar ocks\u00e5 och vid Avdiivka.<\/p>\n

Vid Soledar \u00e4r det tyst men min kaffesump s\u00e4ger att n\u00e5got \u00e4r p\u00e5 g\u00e5ng.<\/p>\n

Just nu \u00e4r RU skakade och det kommer sl\u00e4ppa p\u00e5 ett st\u00e4lle till snart d\u00e4r dom n\u00f6ter, Vuhledar, Soledar, Bilohorivka eller Avdiivka.<\/p>\n

D\u00e5 m\u00e5ste man b\u00f6rja f\u00f6rsvaga norra Luhansk och s\u00f6dra fronten rimligen.<\/p>\n

Den \u201dstora offensiven\u201d som v\u00e4l definieras av de v\u00e4stutrustade brigaderna klipper v\u00e4l till vid s\u00f6dra fronten.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

11:25<\/h3>\n

Accentmannen som postades ovan f\u00f6resl\u00e5r att UA \u00e4r och nosar p\u00e5 Klischivka.<\/p>\n

Faller Klischivka s\u00e5 \u00e4r n\u00e4sta f\u00f6rsvarslinjen den dom f\u00f6rmodligen drar ihop f\u00f6rband f\u00f6r nu. Den kommer inte vara v\u00e4l utbyggd utan dom satsar p\u00e5 att klumpa ihop sig i samh\u00e4llena och d\u00e5 kommer det ukrainska artilleriet decimera dom mycket h\u00e5rt p\u00e5 n\u00e5gra dagar.<\/p>\n

Anfallsvektorn s\u00f6der om Bakhmut kommer n\u00e5 sina stridsm\u00e5l om n\u00e5n vecka eller tv\u00e5 rimligen.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

13:02 Sp\u00e4nnande nu kring Bakhmut. Noel n\u00e4mner att det ser bra ut i norra Klischivka och orten Kudymuivka och Deepstatemap […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[33,18],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7833","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-arkiv01","category-ukraina"],"yoast_head":"\n2023-05-14 -<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-05-14\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"sv_SE\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"2023-05-14 -\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"13:02 Sp\u00e4nnande nu kring Bakhmut. 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