{"id":7835,"date":"2023-05-17T10:08:26","date_gmt":"2023-05-17T08:08:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/2023-05-17\/"},"modified":"2023-05-17T10:08:26","modified_gmt":"2023-05-17T08:08:26","slug":"2023-05-17","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/johanno1.se\/sv\/2023-05-17\/","title":{"rendered":"2023-05-17"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

11:32 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Bra att det lyfts vilka som peddlar rysk psyops.<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/jkaarsbo\/status\/1658754909959856129?s=46&t=EXN6zk3T9HE6sGoIl-A7bQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:03 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

+1<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

12:49 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Dom sl\u00e4ppte mig av b\u00e5ten till sist, det d\u00e4r om sl\u00e4pankare var inte helt taget ur luften men jag bytte frihet mot att jag undertecknade och st\u00e4mplade allt framtida arbete som godk\u00e4nt i f\u00f6rv\u00e4g \u00e5ret ut. \u201dkielhalen\u201d f\u00f6rstod man ju r\u00e4tt snabbt vad det var.<\/p>\n

M\u00e5nga k\u00e4nner oro just nu \u2013 \u201dblir det ens n\u00e5n offensiv\u201d, \u201dBakhmut faller\u201d, \u201dstor rysk maskirovka\u201d och s\u00e5 vidare i sj\u00e4lvf\u00f6rstorande loopar.<\/p>\n

Sj\u00e4lva f\u00f6rdr\u00f6jningsstriden i bebyggelsen Bakhmut b\u00f6rjar v\u00e4l n\u00e4rma sig slutet och jag ser faktiskt en po\u00e4ng med att ta detta f\u00f6r RU \u2013 man f\u00f6rv\u00e4grar UA ett fotf\u00e4ste i bebyggelsen och man f\u00f6rs\u00f6ker stabilisera flankerna. Tittar ni p\u00e5 kartan s\u00e5 f\u00f6rst\u00e5r man ju direkt att det har noll v\u00e4rde. Men kan Prigozin utropa seger med r\u00f6rlig bild och sen retirera blir hela den kommande f\u00f6rlusten arm\u00e9ns fel \u2013 inrikespolitik allts\u00e5.<\/p>\n

Det ryktas att VDV satts in i bebyggelsen i Bakhmut, var v\u00e4l i g\u00e5rdagens blogguppdatering?
\nMan offrar det b\u00e4sta man har h\u00e4r.<\/p>\n

Sen om jag f\u00f6rst\u00e5r detta r\u00e4tt s\u00e5 har VDV nu st\u00e4rkt upp i omr\u00e5det S om Bakhmut, oklart hur det ser ut N om bebyggelsen. V\u00e5r gissning f\u00f6r n\u00e5gra dagar sedan var v\u00e4l att man skulle f\u00f6rst\u00e4rka upp linjen Opytne \u2013 (s\u00f6dra) Zaitseve bakom vattendraget?<\/p>\n

F\u00f6rsvarslinjen bakom vattendraget mellan Opytne \u2013 S Zaitseve \u00e4r intressant, UA har haft tid att f\u00f6rbereda brol\u00e4ggare nu.<\/p>\n

Ser ni UA artilleri s\u00e5 f\u00f6rbek\u00e4mpar dom v\u00e5ldsamt mot n\u00e4sta serie anfallsm\u00e5l just nu S och N om Bakhmut \u2013 mycket explosiv d\u00f6d d\u00e4r f\u00f6rmodligen.<\/p>\n

Man beh\u00f6ver inte vara sl\u00e4kt med Patton p\u00e5 grund av en sekreterare som verkligen gillade champagne f\u00f6r att f\u00f6rst\u00e5 att UA organiserar sig f\u00f6r f\u00f6rnyat fram\u00e5t.<\/p>\n

Vid Bakhmutfronten har dom fullst\u00e4ndigt dr\u00f6nar, artilleri, informations, mekaniserat och f\u00f6rm\u00e5ge \u2013 \u00f6vertag i omr\u00e5dena dom har sina anfallsvektorer i.<\/p>\n

Men ist\u00e4llet f\u00f6r att braka p\u00e5 med allt utnyttjar dom detta maximalt till att minimera sina f\u00f6rluster men \u00e4nd\u00e5 uppn\u00e5 anfallsm\u00e5len.<\/p>\n

Det \u00e4r ett par brigader som stridit hittills gissar jag.<\/p>\n

Kan v\u00e4l t\u00e4nkas att man roterar ut bataljoner och in med andra fr\u00e5n samma brigad eller helt nya?<\/p>\n

Vad som h\u00e4nder en vecka fram\u00e5t skall bli mycket intressant att se f\u00f6r d\u00e5 strider dom mot VDV regementen. Man borde f\u00f6rbereda sig f\u00f6r att bryta igenom p\u00e5 n\u00e5gon punkt som del i Bakhmut-operationen. P\u00e5 en strategisk niv\u00e5 \u00e4r man nog n\u00f6jd \u00f6ver att RU f\u00e5r tulla p\u00e5 sin sista offensiva reserv r\u00e4tt h\u00e5rt.<\/p>\n

RU f\u00f6rbanden skall v\u00e4l dessutom tas n\u00e5gonstans ifr\u00e5n s\u00e5 dom blir svagare n\u00e5gon annanstans och UA har hittills varit levande gudar p\u00e5 att utnyttja s\u00e5dant.<\/p>\n

Vi har f\u00e5tt h\u00f6ra att dom t\u00f6mt Belarus p\u00e5 ryska f\u00f6rband nu och sannolikt k\u00f6r man v\u00e4l ned alla reserver man har. Skulle finnas runt 150 000st totalt i Ryssland fortfarande.<\/p>\n

Men beh\u00f6ver man inte t\u00e4nka p\u00e5 f\u00f6rsvar av Belgorod och Kursk ocks\u00e5 nu s\u00e5 d\u00e4r kommer man beh\u00f6va beh\u00e5lla f\u00f6rband rimligen?<\/p>\n

Runt Bakhmut verkar dom anv\u00e4nda alla typer av indirekt eld dom har tillg\u00e5ng till. Accentmannen f\u00f6rklarade en film jag sett tidigare d\u00e4r dom drog iv\u00e4g en meteor mot ett helt v\u00e4rnsystem.<\/p>\n

UA flyg b\u00f6rjar bli aktivt om vi l\u00e4ser de dagliga rapporterna.<\/p>\n

Dom har absolut artilleri\u00f6vertag i Bakhmut och beh\u00f6ver inte snurra in sig i counter-battery fire utan kan i lugn och ro decimera ryss i grop.<\/p>\n

Enligt RU soldat i Bakhmut har dom s\u00e5 mycket ammunition att dom sl\u00f6sar granat p\u00e5 enskild soldat.<\/p>\n

Allt detta \u00e4r stora plustecken f\u00f6r Ukraina.<\/p>\n

Nu har tydligen 5 stormbrigaden satts in i strid ocks\u00e5, en annan nyuppsatt brigad men inte de vi t\u00e4nker p\u00e5 med alla v\u00e4stvapnen.<\/p>\n

S\u00e5 vilka plus har RU f\u00f6r tillf\u00e4llet, noll skulle jag vilja p\u00e5st\u00e5.<\/p>\n

UA strider bara med brigader dom har i n\u00e4romr\u00e5det medan RU m\u00e5ste transportera in f\u00f6rband fr\u00e5n s\u00e5 l\u00e5ngt bort som Vuhledar och Avdiivka om jag f\u00f6rst\u00e5tt detta r\u00e4tt.<\/p>\n

UA anfaller med 2-3\/20 befintliga brigader i omr\u00e5det och RU retirerar med 3-4 brigader och k\u00f6r fram 3-4 nya reservbrigader dom tagit fr\u00e5n andra frontavsnitt.<\/p>\n

Fr\u00e5n det kan vi nog vara r\u00e4tt s\u00e4kra p\u00e5 att RU inte har 20st brigader st\u00e5ende i omr\u00e5det eller hur?<\/p>\n

Detta \u00e4r bara en front av 5-6 lite beroende p\u00e5 hur man r\u00e4knar och UA offensiva reserv p\u00e5 kanske 20st brigader med v\u00e4stvapen fr\u00e5n \u00f6versta hyllan har inte visats upp \u00e4nnu.<\/p>\n

S\u00e5 h\u00e4r l\u00e5ngt har v\u00e4l UA stridit mycket balanserat \u2013 g\u00f6r mos av RU f\u00f6rsvar med indirekt eld och k\u00f6r \u00f6ver resterna.<\/p>\n

Vilka mer minus har RU \u2013<\/p>\n

RU flyg borde ha sv\u00e4rmat in \u00f6ver Bakhmut nu men det har det inte. Det har varit stor oro hos m\u00e5nga att innan man f\u00e5r jaktflyg kan man inte g\u00e5 p\u00e5 offensiv \u2013 varf\u00f6r f\u00f6rm\u00f6rkas inte himlen \u00f6ver Bakhmut is\u00e5fall av ryskt flyg?
\n(jag tror jag vet \u2013 UA sk\u00f6t ett rej\u00e4lt skr\u00e4mselskott h\u00e4romdagen\u2026)<\/p>\n

RU artilleri borde ha \u00f6kat sin intensitet men det har det inte heller, utslagna dep\u00e5er och skenande artf\u00f6rluster kan man v\u00e4l gissa har med det att g\u00f6ra.<\/p>\n

Man har d\u00e4remot f\u00f6rt fram VDV som \u00e4r den offensiva reserven p\u00e5 kanske +50 000st som finns kvar.<\/p>\n

Men\u2026 nu \u00e4r naturligtvis inte VDV immuna mot indirekt eld p\u00e5 n\u00e5got s\u00e4tt, har dom inte tillg\u00e5ng till egen counter battery fire, egna dr\u00f6nare, motmedel mot dr\u00f6nare och flyg d\u00f6r dom lika snabbt som alla andra truppslag i det h\u00e4r kriget, eller hur?<\/p>\n

Har ni t\u00e4nkt p\u00e5 detta \u2013 vid striderna kring Bakhmut har det varit ryskt skytte. Enda g\u00e5ngerna vi sett h\u00e5rda fordon \u00e4r vid motanfallen.<\/p>\n

St\u00f6der tesen om att RU \u00e4r snorkorta p\u00e5 h\u00e5rda fordon r\u00e4tt bra t\u00e4nker jag eftersom deras f\u00f6rsvar omfattar h\u00e5rda fordon ocks\u00e5 i ett normall\u00e4ge.<\/p>\n

Det h\u00e4r kommer bli v\u00e5ldsamt \u2013 jag ser inte hur RU kan \u00e5terf\u00e5 balansen \u00f6verhuvudtaget kring Bakhmut och dom \u00e4r hoppl\u00f6st ifr\u00e5nk\u00f6rda i allt utom ryss i grop och dom d\u00f6dar man med vinggranat fr\u00e5n dr\u00f6nare som man har obegr\u00e4nsat av.<\/p>\n

Jag tror inte heller man har en pansarbrigad och tv\u00e5 artilleribrigader runt Soledar om man inte planerat offensiva operationer.<\/p>\n

Sen skulle det v\u00e4l r\u00f6ra p\u00e5 sig \u00f6ver Dnepr som god tv\u00e5a?<\/p>\n

Och bli \u00f6kat tryck mellan N Vuhledar upp till Horlivka.<\/p>\n

Det var en mycket het diskussion innan Sverige skickade massa vapen huruvida vi f\u00f6rsakade positiv PR och framtid jobb.
\nDet fanns starka \u00e5sikter i tr\u00e5den att vapenanv\u00e4ndning i UA inte p\u00e5verkade framtida f\u00f6rs\u00e4ljning alls.<\/p>\n

Vi ger er Patriot.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1658431313769029635?s=46&t=w56s4VMd-vE5_QRCYG_6vw<\/a><\/p>\n

Den d\u00e4r toppdiplomaten fr\u00e5n Kina som \u00e5kt till Ukraina f\u00f6r att sondera inf\u00f6r fredssamtal. Har han redan varit i Ryssland?
\nHar inte h\u00f6rt n\u00e5got om det men kan inte best\u00e4mma mig f\u00f6r om det h\u00e4r g\u00e5r under begreppet kastad under bussen eller inte.
\nhttps:\/\/www.reuters.com\/world\/europe\/top-chinese-envoy-visit-ukraine-russia-peace-mission-2023-05-15\/<\/a><\/p>\n

Tanke kring Prigozin \u2013 han \u00e4r nu ett v\u00e4lk\u00e4nt ansikte, en soldat, en ledare, han bryr sig om sina m\u00e4n, han \u00e4r f\u00f6rr\u00e5d av ett korrupt system. Den mannen har nog lyckats putsa sin image rej\u00e4lt hemma i Ryssland. Det trodde man aldrig f\u00e5r jag medge. Om han \u00f6verlever kriget blir han v\u00e4l affischnamn f\u00f6r n\u00e5got kan man gissa?<\/p>\n

Sen tog ju legenden Claes Andersson sj\u00e4lv upp att kullarna lutar \u00e5t \u00d6 i hela landet s\u00e5 RU alltid har uppf\u00f6rsbacke, en str\u00e5lande observation. Just nu h\u00e5ller UA p\u00e5 att positionera sig s\u00e5 att dom kan kasta sten i huvudet p\u00e5 f\u00f6rsvaret i Klischivka.<\/p>\n

Den h\u00e4r var s\u00e5 enkel s\u00e5 till och med jag f\u00f6rstod den, half-life f\u00f6r ryss i grop f\u00f6rkortas hela tiden.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/secretsqrl123\/status\/1658703076965101568?s=46&t=T7b41UZ7oyu0jgrTzcxIWA<\/a><\/p>\n

N\u00e4r man l\u00e4ser denna k\u00e4nns det som att FN \u00e4r helt obsolet och kan l\u00e4ggas ned.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/defenceu\/status\/1658564717651152906?s=46&t=T7b41UZ7oyu0jgrTzcxIWA<\/a><\/p>\n

Minns ni diskussionen vi haft m\u00e5nga g\u00e5nger om att RU skall terroristklassas och att man d\u00e5 kommer \u00e5t alla proryssar genom terroristlagstiftningen. Eftersom RU har s\u00e5 mycket subversiv verksamhet \u00e4r det r\u00e4ttf\u00e4rdigat anser jag. Det verkar USA ocks\u00e5 tycka.
\nhttps:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1658591630968979456?s=46&t=T7b41UZ7oyu0jgrTzcxIWA<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:40 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

Jag hoppas fortfarande att man kan h\u00e5lla emot och inte sl\u00e4ppa det sista i centrala Bakhmut \u00e4ven om det \u00e4r det smartaste. Helt otroligt egentligen att det inte skett tidigare, ett uppenbart bevis p\u00e5 att ryssen \u00e4r mycket svagare \u00e4n man tror. <\/p>\n

Har du f\u00f6rresten missat att ryssen sprattlat till och gjort \u201denorma\u201d framsteg norr om kupiansk? D\u00e4r har de lyckats omvandla flera hundra meter till omstritt omr\u00e5de! \ud83d\ude09<\/p>\n

#RussiaIsATerroristState!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

13:44 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h4>\n

Oj helt missat det\u2026 <\/p>\n

UA \u00e4r svaga l\u00e4ngs den fronten s\u00e5 om RU poolar in reserverna d\u00e4r kan dom s\u00e4kert st\u00e4lla till med en del.<\/p>\n

\u00c4r det st\u00f6rre operation?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n
13:56 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h5>\n

Verkar r\u00e4tt ofarligt s\u00e5 h\u00e4r l\u00e5ngt men det har h\u00e4nt nu s\u00e5 det kan vara v\u00e4rt att h\u00e5lla \u00f6gonen p\u00e5.
\n\u00c4n s\u00e5 l\u00e4nge s\u00e5 liten f\u00f6r\u00e4ndring att man kan tro att det \u00e4r en korrigering av kartan.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

15:23 \u2013 Johan No.1<\/h2>\n

Twitterrykten om bakhmut<\/p>\n

https:\/\/twitter.com\/pstyle0ne1\/status\/1658811869379940360?s=46&t=EXN6zk3T9HE6sGoIl-A7bQ<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

16:57 \u2013 MatsExtrude<\/h3>\n

L\u00e5ter bra!<\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

11:32 \u2013 Johan No.1 Bra att det lyfts vilka som peddlar rysk psyops. https:\/\/twitter.com\/jkaarsbo\/status\/1658754909959856129?s=46&t=EXN6zk3T9HE6sGoIl-A7bQ 12:03 \u2013 MatsExtrude +1 12:49 \u2013 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"default","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-4)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center 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